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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #6,341
  • May 8, 2008 12:41am May 8, 2008 12:41am
  •  BoHan
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Retracements are my forte! | 73 Posts
Actually I feel that the shorting periods ain't over yet. Currently it's still a downtrend, you see the philosophy for mine is never assume a trend has changed until enough evidence proves so. So what for try to go against the train facing the risk of being banged down? lol
Start Young. Think Big. Stick to It.
  • #6,342
  • May 8, 2008 1:14am May 8, 2008 1:14am
Quoting scyang
The trend can change direction so fast. Scary market.
That is why this pair is so much fun to trade!!!!!!!
creating wealth one pip at a time.....
  • #6,343
  • May 8, 2008 3:23am May 8, 2008 3:23am
Quoting BoHan
Actually I feel that the shorting periods ain't over yet. Currently it's still a downtrend, you see the philosophy for mine is never assume a trend has changed until enough evidence proves so. So what for try to go against the train facing the risk of being banged down? lol

At 4:20 AM The Train To Ride is down at Bid 103.75 with the low at 103.65 so far, The Big Drop started arond 2:30 AM which is usually when things happen. About 30 minutes before Europe open.

BOE and ECB and Jobless Claims might change flows so be careful.

Good Trading


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #6,344
  • May 8, 2008 9:49am May 8, 2008 9:49am
http://i29.tinypic.com/sy8cuo.gif

USDJPY close to lower fib projections.
  • #6,345
  • May 8, 2008 9:53am May 8, 2008 9:53am
It's always nice when you are riding the profit train! Trailing stop in place, lets see how far this baby goes?
  • #6,346
  • May 8, 2008 10:48am May 8, 2008 10:48am
So the pip train just stopped but only after taking me to a destination of net 67 pips! That was fun!

Jackie
  • #6,347
  • May 8, 2008 12:12pm May 8, 2008 12:12pm
Told you this pair is FUN!!!
creating wealth one pip at a time.....
  • #6,348
  • May 8, 2008 2:05pm May 8, 2008 2:05pm
A 4 hr pin bar started this recent downtrend I wonder if this last pin bar will start an uptrend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,349
  • May 9, 2008 1:10am May 9, 2008 1:10am
Quoting Poocher
A 4 hr pin bar started this recent downtrend I wonder if this last pin bar will start an uptrend.

Attachment
Looks like the downtrend continues!!!!
creating wealth one pip at a time.....
  • #6,350
  • May 9, 2008 11:24am May 9, 2008 11:24am
Maybe this pin bar will stop the downtrend?...but I'm not betting on it!

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  • #6,351
  • May 9, 2008 11:26am May 9, 2008 11:26am
Quoting Poocher
Maybe this pin bar will stop the downtrend?...but I'm not betting on it!

Attachment


I don't se a pinbar on my platform. Interesting
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,352
  • May 9, 2008 8:48pm May 9, 2008 8:48pm
I am long friends
-
Price 102.94
TP 103.74
SL 102.44
-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj_s4_598.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #6,353
  • May 9, 2008 10:57pm May 9, 2008 10:57pm
[quote=pepbullish;1993476]I am long friends
-
Price 102.94
TP 103.74
SL 102.44
-
quote]


Could you please explain why you are long on usdjpy? I don't see anything in the chart that suggest the drop has stopped and is on its way back up. Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,354
  • May 9, 2008 11:21pm May 9, 2008 11:21pm
It for sure looks oversold on the short term to me.

But the daily looks like it has a long ways to go on the downside.
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  • #6,355
  • May 9, 2008 11:38pm May 9, 2008 11:38pm
ill post 3 charts, explain why i long in USDJPY. Maybe i am wrong, but i believe in a correction.
-
First Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1.gif Size: 24 KB

Pep_MH have a big divergence and stop bearish movement
Pep_Waves with divergence too
Pep_ATR in same level with corrections(29/04 and 06/05)
-
Second Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj2.gif Size: 25 KB

Stoch h4< 20
Pep_Ownage stop bearish movement
Old resistance in 102.62 and now is a support
Stop in 50% fibo
-
Third Chart ( and for me, most important )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj3.gif Size: 24 KB

High Volatility = Bottom
2 tops volatility = reversion
first top is a strong move and the second top is a last breath
-
sorry my horrible english
  • #6,356
  • May 10, 2008 12:25am May 10, 2008 12:25am
@pepbullish,

IMHO, it may or may not got rebound....

but from d volume sshowed, it shud got rebound though..wish u luck

monday shud b important day to see wether its fake breakout or wat...
Swinger Club
  • #6,357
  • May 10, 2008 1:16am May 10, 2008 1:16am
Quoting pepbullish
ill post 3 charts, explain why i long in USDJPY. Maybe i am wrong, but i believe in a correction.
-
First Chart
Attachment
Pep_MH have a big divergence and stop bearish movement
Pep_Waves with divergence too
Pep_ATR in same level with corrections(29/04 and 06/05)
-
Second Chart
Attachment
Stoch h4< 20
Pep_Ownage stop bearish movement
Old resistance in 102.62 and now is a support
Stop in 50% fibo
-
Third Chart ( and for me, most important )
Attachment
High Volatility = Bottom
2 tops volatility = reversion
first top is a strong move and the second top is a last breath
-
sorry my horrible english
Thank you for your charts. I would like to know if you have an expectation how far up usdjpy would go. What's your take profit level? Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,358
  • May 10, 2008 8:15am May 10, 2008 8:15am
Quoting pepbullish
ill post 3 charts, explain why i long in USDJPY. Maybe i am wrong, but i believe in a correction.
-
First Chart
Attachment
Pep_MH have a big divergence and stop bearish movement
Pep_Waves with divergence too
Pep_ATR in same level with corrections(29/04 and 06/05)
-
Second Chart
Attachment
Stoch h4< 20
Pep_Ownage stop bearish movement
Old resistance in 102.62 and now is a support
Stop in 50% fibo
-
Third Chart ( and for me, most important )
Attachment
High Volatility = Bottom
2 tops volatility = reversion
first top is a strong move and the second top is a last breath
-
sorry my horrible english

Your English is fine. Now to my advise.

I am a professional currency trader. I have been trading FX since September of 2003 first through Demo accounts using capital of $50,000 and $100,000.

I started trading real funds for clients during March 2006. I have managed as much as $250,000 at one time for about 12 clients.

At present time I am arranging a $1,000,000 US Dollars fund for my new corporation.

I first started trading on March 9, 2006 only EUR/USD and about one year ago I changed over to USD/JPY when I realized the correlation between the Dow and USD/JPY. I am a 100% fundamental trader using the technicals for entry and exit. I average about 20% a month increase in cash net asset value.

I only pointed all this out to anyone that does not know me by way of background.

I am an expert on this pair. Please be aware that because of the correlation if the Dow goes down 250 points on Monday and it might because of news on MBIA on Monday, You can throw your charts away and make new ones once it reaches 102.00


Good Trading. Have a Great Weekend.

Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #6,359
  • May 10, 2008 10:03am May 10, 2008 10:03am
Quoting scyang
Thank you for your charts. I would like to know if you have an expectation how far up usdjpy would go. What's your take profit level? Thanks.
scyang, i put 103.74 but maybe i close before, depends.
If the price dont loss 102.60 in first 3,4 hours in sunday i will stay relax and close my position before nyse open.
  • #6,360
  • May 10, 2008 10:11am May 10, 2008 10:11am
Quoting Warren Forex
Your English is fine. Now to my advise.

I am a professional currency trader. I have been trading FX since September of 2003 first through Demo accounts using capital of $50,000 and $100,000.

I started trading real funds for clients during March 2006. I have managed as much as $250,000 at one time for about 12 clients.

At present time I am arranging a $1,000,000 US Dollars fund for my new corporation.

I first started trading on March 9, 2006 only EUR/USD and about one year ago I changed over to USD/JPY when I realized the correlation between the Dow and USD/JPY. I am a 100% fundamental trader using the technicals for entry and exit. I average about 20% a month increase in cash net asset value.

I only pointed all this out to anyone that does not know me by way of background.

I am an expert on this pair. Please be aware that because of the correlation if the Dow goes down 250 points on Monday and it might because of news on MBIA on Monday, You can throw your charts away and make new ones once it reaches 102.00


Good Trading. Have a Great Weekend.

Bruce
Thank You very much Warren for your words.
i was worry about dji too, but i believe in actual support in 12717.
i thought before this trade and dji in 1h chart convince me about one possible little reversion.
But is complicated, go to weekend with open positions is not big deal.
-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dji.gif Size: 25 KB
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