USD/JPY Discussion

I think one more push than selloff

profit taking probably. they made a nice chunk today in pips. next week should be interesting.

Honey, I Blew up the Employment Numbers

Long-time readers know the problems I have demonstrated with the monthly employment report. It is one of the most revised reports released by any government agency, and for some reason the market seems to react to it like it means something immediate.
Let's take today's release. It showed a drop of only 20,000 jobs, well above the more negative consensus. The market immediately rallied, taking the thought that the economy may be on its way to recovery. But when you look at the numbers, that optimism evaporates.
The birth/death ratio is the BLS's attempt to figure out how many jobs were created by small businesses that do not show up in their survey of established businesses. It is a simple estimate based on past trends. You have to have this estimate to have any hope of getting the actual number right. And most of the time, the estimates are pretty good. Over time the numbers are revised and in a few years will be pretty close. But in times when the economy is slowing down, the birth/death ratio tends to overstate job growth because the trend is backward-looking. This month's birth/death number was particularly egregious.
April, for whatever statistical reason, has shown the highest number of birth/death jobs for any month. In 2007, the BLS estimated that 262,000 were created in April that they could not account for in the survey of businesses. Somehow, the spreadsheets at BLS had them add 267,000 jobs in April of 2008. That number includes an estimated 45,000 new jobs in construction! And this in a time when both residential and commercial construction are contracting. The actual survey results showed that construction jobs fell by 61,000.
And somewhere, they estimate that 8,000 new jobs in finance were created. As Philippa Dunne notes: “It may be that the gains in our old friend, bars and restaurants, are the [birth/death] model's creation; it added 83,000 to the leisure and hospitality sector. With vacation plans at near-record lows, and restaurants reporting reduced traffic, many of these job gains could disappear in the next benchmark revision.”
Without that addition from the birth/death number, total private employment would have dropped by 296,000. Now, if that had been the headline number, the market would have tanked. Now, I have no doubt that the economy did create a lot of new jobs last month. But when the final revisions are in, we will see that job losses were well south of 100,000. If memory serves me correctly, the BLS had to add about 800,000 jobs that they missed during the recovery in 2003-4. (The birth/death model misses job growth during recoveries, the opposite result of the miss in slowing periods.) They did this just last year, in a major revision of the data. We will see the same type of revisions in 2010, only this time it will be downward.
And even the BLS says that the birth/death numbers have little statistical meaning. The following is from their own website (courtesy of Dennis Gartman) [emphasis obviously mine]:
“Birth/death factors are a component of the not seasonally adjusted estimate and therefore are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes. Instead, the birth/death factor should be assessed in the context of its effect on the not seasonally adjusted estimate... The components are not seasonally adjusted separately because they do not have particular economic meaning in and of themselves.”
Unemployment supposedly dropped last month by 0.1%, to 5%. How could a loss of jobs mean a rise in employment? Because the statistics mask a rather disturbing trend. The number of people working part-time is rising rapidly, and they are counted as employed. Again, From Philippa Dunne of The Liscio Report:
“Almost 3/4 of the gain in non-agricultural household employment [from the household survey] came from those working part-time for economic reasons, and another 83% came from what used to be called ‘willing' part-timers. Yes, that adds to more than 100% – 154% to be precise – because fulltime employment declined by 375,000. The increase in those working part-time for economic reasons was at the 93rd percentile of all months since the series began in 1955; the decline in fulltime employment was at the 90th percentile.”
This employment report was ugly, when you look at the numbers under the headline statistics. It is no wonder consumer sentiment is down.
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Is that what the chart is suggesting? How much farther is it going before the selloff?

We've had a small selloff since price bounced off the 78.6 fibo from the move down from 108 to 96, at 105.54 if that goes than we're going to test 107/108 after that who knows.

DT agree with u

but DT , i think that we must attention to AUDNZD in the next weeks

Market is about to open .... up or down, anyone ???

Test of 105.54 coming

FOREX-Dollar underpinned by Fed view, yen pressured


SYDNEY, May 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was a shade softer on Monday but held on to of most of last week's gains, supported by speculation the Federal Reserve will not need to cut interest rates again.

The euro had drifted to $1.5432 in early Asian trade, not far from Friday's late $1.5424 and well off April's record highs around $1.6018.

The yen remained weak as returning risk appetite encouraged borrowing yen at low rates to invest in high yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. One dollar bought 105.34 yen, far above the March trough of 95.71.

Activity was light with markets in Tokyo and London off for holidays and traders now waiting to see if a survey on the U.S. services sector later in the session proves as resilient as other recent figures.

The dollar firmed on Friday after U.S. payrolls fell by a surprisingly small 20,000 in April, while the jobless rate actually dipped to 5.0 percent.

See more here

What happens after that ???

Next UPMOVE target is 108 (daily chart)

Daily trend is DOWN,

If dont break 108 then we will go down to 100.

Another news...

13 Asian nations agree to set up $80-B crisis fund13 Asian nations agree to set up $80-B crisis fund

Agence France Presse

MADRID - Finance ministers of 13 Asian nations agreed here on Sunday to set up a foreign exchange pool of at least 80 billion dollars (52 billion euros) to be used in the event of another regional financial crisis.

China, Japan and South Korea will provide 80 percent of the funds, with the rest coming from the 10 members of ASEAN, they said in a joint statement issued after talks on the sidelines of an Asian Development Bank meeting in Madrid.

The 13 nations agreed after the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis to set up a mainly bilateral currency swap scheme known as the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) to protect their currencies from turmoil in the future.

See more here

hmmmmm....

I see no one here all traders sleeps lol
I'm [email protected] SL 104.20 TP 105.70
Anyone with me?

I will hunt your stop

Just joking.. anyway, good long, maybe a little risk because of the 1h trend, still down-trend, but starting pointing north

wish you a good profit

And we also at at 61% fib of the last up-swing (from 03.4 to 105.6 approximately), so another +++ for your long

Your long seems like a good trade to me. Anyone else anticipating the decline coming? Where are you looking to get short if you don't mind? I'm thinking of starting in the 106 area

Long from 104.68

Could you please share why you are long on usdjpy? It, as well as usdchf which typically rise and fall together, has been going down. Oil prices going up and stock market tumbling usually drive usdjpy and usdchf downward.

M1,M5,M15,H1 and H4 showed strong downtrend.
However D1 and W1 still on uptrend. Most fundamental news originating from US reveals that the worse maybe over. I am still undecided, need to see further development.