4 Hour Strategy (MACD) | Page 712 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

4 hour strategy (the nausbot - 4 hour trader) 25 replies

4 Hour Strategy Macd+other Indicator 21 replies

X-1102 1 hour , 4 hour and daily Tf trades 7 replies

Create a verticle line at certain hour for every certain hour 16 replies

Is the "4 Hour Strategy (MACD)" the best system here at FF? 20 replies

Attachments: 4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
Exit Attachments

4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,221
  • May 3, 2008 5:48pm May 3, 2008 5:48pm
If you are able to take on a larger than usual stop loss on NFP days - with Phillip's system there is nothing as a NFP day.

What use to frighten me about NFP days was the range within which price moved - but it still had to trend.

If you had the trend right - which this system has taught me - coupled with a tolerable stop loss - one would still come out making money after the roller coaster ride.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #14,222
  • May 4, 2008 1:52am May 4, 2008 1:52am
There is a much broader point here. Phil said in his definition of the system that he will guarrantee that you will make +300 pips per month trading 6-8 times on two currencies. Because this is true we do not need to take unecessary risks. There is simply no reason to take them. That is the great benefit of this system, that you 'know' there is no reason to take a risk, because the pips will be there anyway. If you take a risk, then you are after some other excitement there, some trading buzz. This system is not about that.
  • #14,223
  • May 4, 2008 2:08am May 4, 2008 2:08am
Hi everyone, new to this thread and FF as well. Love this system and very interested in joining you guys. I read a few pages but found it too much to finish, seems that I'll need quite some days to catch up the latest update...

Is there anyone who can help me with a latest template and trading rules for entry/exit? I downloaded a few attachments but don't get them really, e.g. how to use the 4H MACD_v.105? I got some of the files mentioned by Phillip on the first page but love to have the latest setup...

Thanks,
Nice weekend, happy trading!
  • #14,224
  • May 4, 2008 2:16am May 4, 2008 2:16am
Lovebug;Glad you are interested in the thread. This however is not a system like others where the templates are 'the lastest' ones and the entries are 'the latest' ones,and you have to run to keep up. This is a market and price understanding system. Therefore it is the same from page one to the present. To understand it, start at the beginning of the thread and work to the end. Its a huge task and takes around 1 month. The more you read the more you will understand and learn and develop the mindset here. It is worth the effort and the only way to do it, we all have.Dont be confused by slightly differant versions of the macd, its a simple coloured one and that is that.
  • #14,225
  • May 4, 2008 2:19am May 4, 2008 2:19am
Quoting Lovebug
Hi everyone, new to this thread and FF as well. Love this system and very interested in joining you guys. I read a few pages but found it too much to finish, seems that I'll need quite some days to catch up the latest update...

Is there anyone who can help me with a latest template and trading rules for entry/exit? I downloaded a few attachments but don't get them really, e.g. how to use the 4H MACD_v.105? I got some of the files mentioned by Phillip on the first page but love to have the latest setup...

Thanks,
Nice weekend, happy trading!
MACD V102 is ok, the setting is in the pdf in Post No.1
you could find it there,
you could read the files metioned on Post No1 first,
and keep up with the latest posts,
Only took TC patterns, that would give you enough pips.

Dhalsim
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #14,226
  • May 4, 2008 2:24am May 4, 2008 2:24am
Quoting ejiexe
It has been proved several times that Philip method support fundamentals.

Philip himself has traded important news before on this forum and I think there was even MP3 for it. This is at early days of MP3. More than a year ago now.

Check the folllowing dates, they are days of NF payroll and see if you will trade on that date or not just because there is NF. Be honest with yourself in your judgement.

4/5/2007
7/09/2007
5/10/2007
2/11/2007

YES, I agree that market can be funny and erractic on a day with big news, yet there are some times I see a good setup and I just I have to take it. Especially when I have already banked pips during the week and when I am sure there is a chance for me to break even at worse.

If I see such a setup on a normal day without NF, I will surely take. I decided to use huge stop loss because of hunting during the news, otherwise my stop loss would'nt have been so huge.

So, if you still believe the trade is a gambling, I will appreciate if you could tell me technically with chart analysis why it is a gambling.

P.S. We are all hear to learn and not to impress anybody. Afterall, my today is better than yesterday and I am sure my tomorrow will surely be better than today.
There are some mp3 on 1min news trading on 5Min Intraday Stragety,
you could find them in
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=11854
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #14,227
  • May 4, 2008 2:24am May 4, 2008 2:24am
Thanks, Napeharm. I'll try to read over all these pages, wow, really huge task... Seems that I need to stay up for the whole night.
  • #14,228
  • May 4, 2008 2:33am May 4, 2008 2:33am
Your welcome. Reading the thread helps to get your mind round it all. This is not a system as such, but an understanding of the market, thats why it works. This takes time. Unfortunately you cant just jump in and hit the ground running, the approach here is too broad for that. However, the study is entirely worth it because the rewards are also huge if you want them to be. This is not a here today gone tomorrow system, its an understanding for life.........period. Reading the thread also allows you to find answers to questions you may want to ask and saves posting the obvious stuff even though we are all here to help.
  • #14,229
  • May 4, 2008 2:34am May 4, 2008 2:34am
Quoting dhalsim
MACD V102 is ok, the setting is in the pdf in Post No.1
you could find it there,
you could read the files metioned on Post No1 first,
and keep up with the latest posts,
Only took TC patterns, that would give you enough pips.

Dhalsim
Thanks, guy. Will try to set up accordingly. I went to your page at Baidu.com, is it you who posted 4H MACD strategy on fx998.com? Are you a live trader? I'll get you on QQ.
  • #14,230
  • May 4, 2008 2:40am May 4, 2008 2:40am
Quoting Lovebug
Thanks, guy. Will try to set up accordingly. I went to your page at Baidu.com, is it you who posted 4H MACD strategy on fx998.com? Are you a live trader? I'll get you on QQ.
no, I only translate that file and post it on baidu.com,
I trade both live and demo now
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #14,231
  • Edited 6:49am May 4, 2008 3:37am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting ejiexe
It has been proved several times that Philip method support fundamentals.
NFP is different,it could jump up 100pips in 1 minute then went to the direction of technical.so ur stoploss might be hitted.
Philip himself has traded important news before on this forum and I think there was even MP3 for it. This is at early days of MP3. More than a year ago now.
phillip told me once :he is absloutly away at least 4 hours befor the 2 important news: NFP and rate deceision. as u know he traded gbpusd on this friday about 8 hours before NFP,but ur trade was some minutes befor NFP and it could went either way and thats why i call it gambling.
Check the folllowing dates, they are days of NF payroll and see if you will trade on that date or not just because there is NF. Be honest with yourself in your judgement.

4/5/2007
7/09/2007
5/10/2007
2/11/2007
i also trade some of that days but after the news and with phillip's m5 system (he has a M1 news trading system ) and i posted them in M5 thread .
YES, I agree that market can be funny and erractic on a day with big news, yet there are some times I see a good setup and I just I have to take it. Especially when I have already banked pips during the week and when I am sure there is a chance for me to break even at worse.
dont accept risk just because u r possitive for the month or week my friend ,i learned to dont look back and trade in forex ,either i made pips befor or loose(that is my personal experience and can be wrong )

If I see such a setup on a normal day without NF, I will surely take. I decided to use huge stop loss because of hunting during the news, otherwise my stop loss would'nt have been so huge.
that was not a normal day as u said.so why accept risk with huge stoploss?

So, if you still believe the trade is a gambling, I will appreciate if you could tell me technically with chart analysis why it is a gambling.
i beleive technicall analyse doesnt work a few minutes before (lets say the most important news) in forex.its all depent on the jobs number and it could be good or bad and no one can tell u what is the number brfore release and thats it.but after news technical can work and u can go with technical like normal market.
i say it is gambling because the jobs number could be -200k or +300k or any other numbers,they also could revise the previous number and this also could affect the result ,and many other things wich we DIDNT KNOW and happend in a seccond,market just look at the jobs number on that situation to fly like a rocket or decline as a free fall and never look at our sell signal at that time.

P.S. We are all hear to learn and not to impress anybody. Afterall, my today is better than yesterday and I am sure my tomorrow will surely be better than today.
im very happy to hear that my friend and i hope u become better every day,i saw before people loosing alot of money with gambling few minutes before NFP and this made me nervous to see people doing that again and hpe u doesnt become sad by my post.
regards
  • #14,232
  • May 4, 2008 7:10am May 4, 2008 7:10am
Quoting ejiexe
It has been proved several times that Philip method support fundamentals...
When backtesting this (and other) system on history, I don't take into consideration the news and I don't look at lower timeframes etc. Thinking of that I also, and not once was weighting about the question you've posted, ejiexe.

"Pros" for me were that: 1) on history I didn't take news into consideration and in the end it worked; 2) sometimes I really just wonder how news "move" the market in the direction that is "logical" as to price waves, in case of Phillip's system - interaction with MAs and so on.

But there are some "Cons" as well and they are simple but serious: due to excessive emotions during the most well-known knews price really for some time may move unpredictably and in a wide range.

My general conclusion after thinking on this problem was similar to that written by aftab - if according to your historical analysis it works AND you can allow liberal stoplosses - you may try.

Conclusion for myself was NO because: 1) my experience is not so rich, I feel uncertain and inconvenient during such movements - and my rule is if I feel like that then I should just watch; 2) I can't allow myself such big stoplosses.
  • #14,233
  • May 4, 2008 1:08pm May 4, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting Yorik
When backtesting this (and other) system on history, I don't take into consideration the news and I don't look at lower timeframes etc. Thinking of that I also, and not once was weighting about the question you've posted, ejiexe.

"Pros" for me were that: 1) on history I didn't take news into consideration and in the end it worked; 2) sometimes I really just wonder how news "move" the market in the direction that is "logical" as to price waves, in case of Phillip's system - interaction with MAs and so on.

But there are some "Cons" as well and they are simple but serious: due to excessive emotions during the most well-known knews price really for some time may move unpredictably and in a wide range.

My general conclusion after thinking on this problem was similar to that written by aftab - if according to your historical analysis it works AND you can allow liberal stoplosses - you may try.

Conclusion for myself was NO because: 1) my experience is not so rich, I feel uncertain and inconvenient during such movements - and my rule is if I feel like that then I should just watch; 2) I can't allow myself such big stoplosses.
You are right Yorik. Let me share what I did initially when I joined this forum about 1 year and 2 months ago. To be honest, I did'nt even back test this method I forward test it. The only thing I backtested was the news data in support of technical and the recent price movement on fifteen minute which MASTER said recently. I got all the news data from forexfactory for two years up to date and pasted it on Microsoft excel and went through what happend on each time of the news. I compare the news release data and technical and see how they support each other because I was so interest in how this method work with the news.

I FOUND OUT THAT 70 - 80% WERE OKAY AND THAT IS IT. Let us also remember that there is no method that is perfect. 7 win out 10 trade is just okay with good money management.

Since I join the forum, I have been watching all the NF releases live and see how it behaves these days. In fact, NF has lost it credibility has to what it used to be. What I fear so much is the Interest Rate Decision. I have never lost any trade on NF before. It is my favourite!!! That does mean I can't loss on it.

I want us to appreciate the fact the alot of people has added salt and pepper to this method to make it easier for some of us to see market in different way.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #14,234
  • May 4, 2008 2:51pm May 4, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting ejiexe
... I FOUND OUT THAT 70 - 80% WERE OKAY AND THAT IS IT. ...
Do you mean that you could predict price movement after the news in 70-80% of cases or that price acted according to technical "rules" and news didn't contradict but only intensified it?

Quote
...The only thing I backtested was the news data in support of technical and the recent price movement on fifteen minute which MASTER said recently. I got all the news data from forexfactory for two years up to date and pasted it on Microsoft excel and went through what happend on each time of the news. I compare the news release data and technical and see how they support each other because I was so interest in how this method work with the news.
That's an interesting thing! I think I'll try to do smth similar.
  • #14,235
  • May 4, 2008 7:53pm May 4, 2008 7:53pm
Quoting napeharm
I was going to post this observation yesterday before the big news but given the unpredictability of the event i chose not to. I dont know how much people know of price action so i will explain briefly anyhow. The Thursday daily candle in the first chart shows that the price opened and closed in the last quarter of the bar. Price action tells us that the price is likely to continue in that direction the next day. Knowing this gives us a clue as to what to expect. It does not always work and this can be seen from recent Euro trading, but the price has been very mixed recently. The second chart shows a better example of how the candles cascade down showing the same pattern. The closer to the end of the candles the open and close are the better the pattern. The last eighth would be nicer.
napeharm:

Thanks for the insight with the price action. I see this as a 'Post-It-Note' for me.
  • #14,236
  • May 4, 2008 9:23pm May 4, 2008 9:23pm
Sent you PM Palmer.........Im down here on the beach............pipip........Jimdandy
  • #14,237
  • Edited 1:00am May 5, 2008 12:49am | Edited 1:00am
My charts and anticipations for EURUSD, GBPUSD 04:00 GMT+1 05.05.2008

EURUSD: waiting for either a TC (BOZ? ZB?) down from EMA21, either a TC up if EMA21 is broken upwards.
GBPUSD: waiting either for a TC (BOZ? ZB?) down from EMA21/SMA89 or up signals if price breaks through SMA89 up.
Attached Images
  • #14,238
  • May 5, 2008 12:58am May 5, 2008 12:58am
EurUsd
Price has pulled back to 21ema allmost. Price is in a downtrend so a TC will be the signal to enter.

GbpUsd
Price is at the 21ema. In a down channel. TC off 21ema will be signal.
  • #14,239
  • May 5, 2008 1:24am May 5, 2008 1:24am
During the last week I analysed 12 setups on EURUSD (49-60 in my numbering) (see the picture below; blue rectangles divide bars in days, red lines with numbers show setups).

From those 12 setups 7 had SL<50 pips and R:R>=1 (50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 58). Among those 7 setups:
1) "should have" been taken - 2 - #51 (TC, 0.5/20+0.5/45=1/33), 53 (TC, 0.5/25+0.5/0=1/12), total up to +45 pips\1lot;
2) from other 5 that are left:
2.1) would bring profits if taken - 3 - 50 (counter-trend, 0.5/20+0.5/0=1/10), 52 (counter-trend, 0.5/20+0.5/0=1/10), 54 (counter-trend, 0.5/11+0.5/0=1/5), in total 1/25;
2.2) would bring losses if taken - 2 - 56 (counter-trend, 1/-28), 58 (counter-trend, 1/-34). Totally, 1/-62.
So these "other" setups could have brought -37 pips / 1 lot if taken.

So theoretically if to take all setups (with my SL, TPs etc) one could get 45+25-62= +8 pips. If to take only 2 "should have-s" - +45.

My real result is 1 trade, +1 pips
I missed #51 (the trade that "fed" the week) because signal MACD bar was equal to the previous one so I was a bit unsure. And - irony? - i couldn't enter #53 due to connection problems. My only trade for the week on EURUSD was #54 - it was a "positioning" counter-trade, I entered 0.5, quickly closed 0.3 with +11 (first target) and left 0.2 with SL at -11 (were they were closed soon). So +11 on 0.1 or about +1 on lot 1.0.

"Experience is the thing you get when you don't get what was needed" (sorry for maybe too direct translation)
Attached Image
  • #14,240
  • May 5, 2008 1:25am May 5, 2008 1:25am
Hello everyone and welcome new faces ! I was ill but now I'm back, need some time to catch up, let's have a nice trading this week!!!
14 traders viewing now