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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,201
  • May 2, 2008 5:46am May 2, 2008 5:46am
Quoting unlv_tj
I actually show that price got down to 1.9720, but this was when news came out, so maybe the spread was increased or maybe it was so fast slippage caused my Target Profit to not be sold in time.

I don't know, but I do know I will keep this in mind in the future. I was successful in my trade, but I got stopped out due to something with my broker. The normal spread is 2.5 for the GBPUSD, and I made my target profit by up to a full 5 pips.
I haven't faced such situations yet but also must notice that in broker's rules might be written that price is "taken" (TP for ex. or SL) only after 2 (or 3 etc) ticks on in.

P.S. As napeharm wrote about claims to the broker - just may remind that some brokers accept them only during 24 H after the possible trouble.
  • #14,202
  • May 2, 2008 5:49am May 2, 2008 5:49am
............i made +42!...........so of course being a nice account holder, i phoned them up right away and arranged to give this totally free money back to them................yeah right!

Justs shows you, when we make easy money from them we keep it, and when they stiff us we shout and shout and shout till they give it us back. Afterall, they would rather lose afew pounds or dollars to keep you happy than lose a customer. The boot is on our foot.
  • #14,203
  • May 2, 2008 5:55am May 2, 2008 5:55am
Actually i was very cross afterwards.............because if i had noticed it earlier i would have made +70.............hahahahahahahahaha...........
  • #14,204
  • May 2, 2008 6:33am May 2, 2008 6:33am
Quoting napeharm
Its our responsibility to keep these bucket shops, sorry reputable brokers, honest by not letting them get away with any more than they already do.

About 18 months ago i was following the market one afternoon, and i was scrolling idly through my dealing pages and account info, and found..........my broker had opened a live trade by themselves...........OH_MY_GOD!.......yup, and it had been running for 45 mins or more as well without my knowledge. Of course i pressed the panic button and closed it immediately...........what a relief.
OANDA is actually one of the best out there and they are far more transparent on their spreads than most others. You can historically go back and look at spreads but yes they will widen during news events and can go from 2.5 to 10 or 20 pips spread, but this is fairly normal these days with most brokers.

If you do as I mentioned and go back on the graph and zoom in on a high enough level you will be able to see that the spread opened and this is what took you out.

Of course if you aren't happy talk to your broker and they will walk you through the same as what I am telling you so that you can see how the spread has taken you out.

Try zooming in where you got taken out and put the time frame as 5 sec and change to graph type "close price". This will pretty much show you the spread during that time.
  • #14,205
  • May 2, 2008 6:47am May 2, 2008 6:47am
Quoting brettboz
OANDA is actually one of the best out there and they are far more transparent on their spreads than most others. You can historically go back and look at spreads but yes they will widen during news events and can go from 2.5 to 10 or 20 pips spread, but this is fairly normal these days with most brokers.

If you do as I mentioned and go back on the graph and zoom in on a high enough level you will be able to see that the spread opened and this is what took you out.

Of course if you aren't happy talk to your broker and they will walk you through the same as what I am telling you so that you can see how the spread has taken you out.

Try zooming in where you got taken out and put the time frame as 5 sec and change to graph type "close price". This will pretty much show you the spread during that time.
On the candle stick or bar charts you can't always see the periodic spread widening, but in the drop down menu when you select Min/Max, you will see exactly the spread history, especially if you zoom into 5sec charts.... helped me to define where and why I got stopped out in the past when I was using Oanda
  • #14,206
  • May 2, 2008 7:44am May 2, 2008 7:44am
I can't post the chart before the news and I don't want to post it without chart. I don't know why. May be due to many user on the forum then.

This is what I did. I may be wrong. 1 Hr Early entry before NF. I don't usually trade before NF but this is tempting.

sell @ 1.5466
TP @ 1.5341
SL @ 1.5516

EDIT: TP not reach. Close manually at 1.5392. TP was calculated on the low of 24th of March.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #14,207
  • May 2, 2008 7:45am May 2, 2008 7:45am
GBPCHF the only pairing of the three i am following today that is playng ball. So a 5 min opportunistic trade for +40.
  • #14,208
  • May 2, 2008 8:10am May 2, 2008 8:10am
Normally, I wouldn't trade if movement is more than 70 pips... but seems like news release can push the pair further to the downside... All news for US has been positive so far...

May risk a bit to ride on TC.
  • #14,209
  • May 2, 2008 9:55am May 2, 2008 9:55am
Maxster,
I was going thru some on your additions to the thread. For now was your price at the intraday long, 9789, and your profit target I can't figure. At work now, but have lots of questions. I just need to study more to justify them.
Moreland

Quoting maxster
Wow above statement just shows how traders view the market 180 degrees from one another.

The fibs are telling me the following -

1. Very clear bounce on the 62% show 1H/4H price swing momentum is still to the upside. This should flag a warning about shorts.

2. The minor lower timeframe swing red fib again bounced from the 62% meaning the lower timeframe is entering Phillip's trending rhythm - indicating price on the lower timeframe may also be shifting back to the upside.

Entering shorts after the bounce on that minor swing is completely against both 4H momentum and short term momentum - making shorts very low proability trade at that point of entry. We want to enter trades that are in sync both with the 4H/1H momentum and the lower timeframe.

However Phillip did a great job managing the trade.
  • #14,210
  • May 2, 2008 10:30am May 2, 2008 10:30am
I found the reason my Target Profit was not taken.

Oanda upped the spread due to the news out on the GBP, so the bid/ask price gapped. The actual bid price never got to my Target Profit short, so I was never trigged. Price overall passed my Target Profit, but the bid never touched to sell.

Lesson learned (and learned very cheap, I traded small due to the news).

If there is news in the next 4 hour bar, pass on the trade no matter how nicely it has set-up.

The TC was set-up perfectly, but news took it out, then brought it back.

Thanks everyone!
  • #14,211
  • May 2, 2008 11:36am May 2, 2008 11:36am
Quoting unlv_tj
I found the reason my Target Profit was not taken.

Oanda upped the spread due to the news out on the GBP, so the bid/ask price gapped. The actual bid price never got to my Target Profit short, so I was never trigged. Price overall passed my Target Profit, but the bid never touched to sell.

Lesson learned (and learned very cheap, I traded small due to the news).

If there is news in the next 4 hour bar, pass on the trade no matter how nicely it has set-up.

The TC was set-up perfectly, but news took it out, then brought it back.

Thanks everyone!
You are not alone. Sometime ago,My TP was missed and I was kicked out by CMS during the news releasing time.
  • #14,212
  • May 2, 2008 11:39am May 2, 2008 11:39am
Quoting Morelands
Maxster,
I was going thru some on your additions to the thread. For now was your price at the intraday long, 9789, and your profit target I can't figure. At work now, but have lots of questions. I just need to study more to justify them.
Moreland
I didn't enter any trades today due to NFP.

The above post was just some info regarding the GBP short that people took and how I was following the price and why I would not even consider a short.

I usually like to see pullbacks more steady and smooth with nice looking 15M swings.

Today I was waiting for a TC breakout to the downside on the EUR because of the visible narrow sideways channel but NFP jump the price down to target so no trade.
  • #14,213
  • May 2, 2008 12:04pm May 2, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting maxster
I didn't enter any trades today due to NFP.

The above post was just some info regarding the GBP short that people took and how I was following the price and why I would not even consider a short.

I usually like to see pullbacks more steady and smooth with nice looking 15M swings.

Today I was waiting for a TC breakout to the downside because of the visible narrow sideways channel but NFP jump the price down to target so no trade.
GU has been very choppy, I have put a small trade (short) during the last Asian session and it would have been profitable if I have had a smaller profit target, but because the PT was too far away, when the market has reversed the SL was hit. It was a sensible setting, as the price was touching 21EMA. After that I have had to go to some meetings, so I could not trade. Looking at the 4hr and 1hr chart probably just as well. Have a nice weekend everybody.
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #14,214
  • May 2, 2008 12:19pm May 2, 2008 12:19pm
I know that people come to this thread and they want to see the method being traded. They question whether it works and what is the maximum drawdown and demanding people show some kind of evidence, live trades and so on. I think this weeks trading from members has shown that real trading goes on here and that the method is successful, and if not as successful as it might be sometimes, that we are learning from our mistakes.

I have traded a mixture of 4hr and 5 min trades. I have taken as many of the 4hr macd trades as i could. The limitation i have set myself to be as realistic as possible is to trade with one lot. I dont use mini lots or micro etc, so then i have to be reasonable with my profits and take them when i can. The trades are therefore sometimes shorter than i would wish, like Phils first +25 lot, and i am not able to leave a runner with a 25 pip trailing stop. I have been trading with these conditions this week, and trading my 5 min charts when the 4hr trade has ended. However the 5 min trades are still taken in the context of the 4hr macd and in the direction of those signals.

My results this week have been good and i am pleased with them. I have not traded with real money this week but have made some +226 pips. I could have traded better yesterday. I didnt take +29 when it was there in the morning, that was my first mistake so took only +5 i think, then i set my next target for a 5 min trade too low, i misread my chart, and when i took profit on the dot, it was around +20 short infact, which i could have made also. I could have traded better this week overall but we live and learn. I feel, given the pairings i traded i could have made double what i did.

I hope that shows visitors to the thread that things do work here and that the method is a good and successful one. I know other traders made pips here this week and wish them all the best.
  • #14,215
  • May 3, 2008 1:20am May 3, 2008 1:20am
Sometime last week i think i posted support and resistance zones for the Euro. Now we have had some movement down to that area we can see more clearly that this proved to be so. Sometimes support and resitance can be one line drawn clearly in the sand and others a woolly area as show in this chart. I think it has worked fine though.
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  • #14,216
  • May 3, 2008 1:29am May 3, 2008 1:29am
Something else i wanted to re-state was bar highs. On this blown up Euro chart on successive days we find what turned into a four bar high on the 4hr, followed the next day by a two bar high. Bar highs need to be paid attention because they are defining a resistance area in this case, regardless of what the 4hrmacd system is telling us. They are not common either and to see a three or four bar high very unusual. To be effective or significant they will nedd to be within one pip of one another like these.
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  • #14,217
  • May 3, 2008 1:37am May 3, 2008 1:37am
I was going to post this observation yesterday before the big news but given the unpredictability of the event i chose not to. I dont know how much people know of price action so i will explain briefly anyhow. The Thursday daily candle in the first chart shows that the price opened and closed in the last quarter of the bar. Price action tells us that the price is likely to continue in that direction the next day. Knowing this gives us a clue as to what to expect. It does not always work and this can be seen from recent Euro trading, but the price has been very mixed recently. The second chart shows a better example of how the candles cascade down showing the same pattern. The closer to the end of the candles the open and close are the better the pattern. The last eighth would be nicer.
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  • #14,218
  • May 3, 2008 2:49am May 3, 2008 2:49am
Quoting ejiexe
I can't post the chart before the news and I don't want to post it without chart. I don't know why. May be due to many user on the forum then.

This is what I did. I may be wrong. 1 Hr Early entry before NF. I don't usually trade before NF but this is tempting.

sell @ 1.5466
TP @ 1.5341
SL @ 1.5516

EDIT: TP not reach. Close manually at 1.5392. TP was calculated on the low of 24th of March.
that was a gambling,nothing else
  • #14,219
  • May 3, 2008 4:56am May 3, 2008 4:56am
Interesting observations, napeharm. Things to remember and analyse..
  • #14,220
  • May 3, 2008 5:13pm May 3, 2008 5:13pm
Quoting bshadroo
that was a gambling,nothing else
It has been proved several times that Philip method support fundamentals.

Philip himself has traded important news before on this forum and I think there was even MP3 for it. This is at early days of MP3. More than a year ago now.

Check the folllowing dates, they are days of NF payroll and see if you will trade on that date or not just because there is NF. Be honest with yourself in your judgement.

4/5/2007
7/09/2007
5/10/2007
2/11/2007

YES, I agree that market can be funny and erractic on a day with big news, yet there are some times I see a good setup and I just I have to take it. Especially when I have already banked pips during the week and when I am sure there is a chance for me to break even at worse.

If I see such a setup on a normal day without NF, I will surely take. I decided to use huge stop loss because of hunting during the news, otherwise my stop loss would'nt have been so huge.

So, if you still believe the trade is a gambling, I will appreciate if you could tell me technically with chart analysis why it is a gambling.

P.S. We are all hear to learn and not to impress anybody. Afterall, my today is better than yesterday and I am sure my tomorrow will surely be better than today.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
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