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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #14,181
  • May 1, 2008 11:49pm May 1, 2008 11:49pm
It was difficult to see on my chart because the candles are small, but the Euro has a two bar high on the 4hr at 1.5481 which is a line drawn in the sand. A third bar touches this earlier also.
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  • #14,182
  • Edited May 2, 2008 12:28am May 1, 2008 11:56pm | Edited May 2, 2008 12:28am
Price made a TC for a short.

There was a nice downcandle. Now let me work out my plan for this TC.
The 21ema and above should be our stoploss area. The 89sma as not far above. So the price might go back to test either of them and to be save my stoplosss must be out of the way.
There is only one way to achieve a stoploss above 21ema and also somehow cover the 89sma for a possible pullback and have a stoploss that is not hurting and that is to enter on a 50% retracement.

So I entered on 1.9767
SL 1.9805
TP 1.9664 more or less. Near the previouse low.

This is a high risk trade.I will cover position at 1.9750 and go to BE.

Edit 1
Set all at BE after +20
Edit 2
Took 50% profit after +25. set remainder to -25 as there is some volitiliaty and this will give me a total BE trade with a chance should it wants to run.
Edit 3
a Lot of volatility due to news I think. Will leave 50%rrmainder on stoploss of 1.9792(-25) to go BE with the +25 profit allready taken on 50%

Edit 4
WOW. Closed out for +25 and -25. Breakeven.

If it was not for money management and a preset plan I would have been in trouble.
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  • #14,183
  • Edited May 2, 2008 2:21am May 1, 2008 11:59pm | Edited May 2, 2008 2:21am
Quoting napeharm
It was difficult to see on my chart because the candles are small, but the Euro has a two bar high on the 4hr at 1.5481 which is a line drawn in the sand. A third bar touches this earlier also.
I also spot that therefore my hesitation for a possible high probability RB trade. Well done. I t has to go above those bars for an upmove to have validility
  • #14,184
  • Edited 12:30am May 2, 2008 12:06am | Edited 12:30am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Price made a TC for a short.

There was a nice downcandle. Now let is work out our plan for this TC.
The 21ema and above should be our stoploss area. The 89sma as not far above. So the price might go back to test either of them and to be save my stoplosss must be out of the way.
There is only one way to achieve a stoploss above 21ema and also somehow cover the 89sma for a possible pullback and have a stoploss that is not hurting and that is to enter on a 50% retracement.

So I entered on 1.9767
SL 1.9805
TP 1.9664 more or less. Near the previouse low.

This is a high risk trade.I will cover position at 1.9750 and go to BE.
Still a lot to learn from you! Thanks!
I was more "mechanical" in my actions (cos don't have so much experience yet) and entered at the close of signal bar (04:00 GMT+1). After being in loss for almost an hour, after the news (Halifax House Price Index m/m) closed the 1st half with +22 and the second moved to BE (1.9762). Will be watching what happens next.

Edit 10:31 GMT+1: Second half closed at BE on the impulse upwards. So the results of the trade are 0.5*22 + 0.5*0 = 1*11.

Thanks for the system!
  • #14,185
  • May 2, 2008 12:37am May 2, 2008 12:37am
Phillip,
Thanks for the retracement lesson this morning....like Yorik, my approach is more mechanical, but you have opened my eyes to higher risk "safe" trades. The stop is kept to reasonable size and provided your finger is hovering above the button to take early profit and move to BE, then the odds are in your favour.
While I will continue to trade live in my learner's more conservative approach, I will practice the retracement trades in demo.
  • #14,186
  • May 2, 2008 1:07am May 2, 2008 1:07am
Quoting Hookem28
(Posted Apr 22, 2008 16:55)
1.9740

Hope you GBP traders have this trendline on your charts. It bounced off the line for the millionth time. Check out post 13337 and 1338 for more examples.
Maybe just a coincidence but..
  • #14,187
  • May 2, 2008 1:19am May 2, 2008 1:19am
Quoting Yorik
Maybe just a coincidence but..
Also finding support around that 1.9740 at 61.8% fib level, then resistance at 38.2, then support at 61.8% again..... interesting
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  • #14,188
  • May 2, 2008 1:26am May 2, 2008 1:26am
Nice TC of GU, I entered but was kicked out. I even hasn't reach first TP which is 25pips with 2pips miss. I saw Philip has entered this also and got +25 and -25 with BE. Wow, my spread of GU is 5pips, what a big bad luck today! I remeber Ira had told me that don't enter trade when 8&21 ema are getting together. I don't know today's gu's action fited her rules.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #14,189
  • May 2, 2008 1:40am May 2, 2008 1:40am
My GBP fibs showing nothing in particular.
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  • #14,190
  • May 2, 2008 1:48am May 2, 2008 1:48am
Since i am new to the idea of the retracement trade, like many of us this week,i didnt see the one on the GBPCHF this morning. However i entered after it on my 5mins trade for +26. The point here being that even though it wasnt strictly a 4hr macd retracement trade, thats a mouthful, the conviction of it carried my belief for a trade on my 5 mins because i saw the opportunity there also for the trade to continue.
  • #14,191
  • Edited 2:11am May 2, 2008 1:52am | Edited 2:11am
Just to continue, that has been one of the big benefits of the 4hr macd system for me. After a 4hr signal has been missed or i have taken a trade and taken profit from it, i feel much more confident to continue trading from my 5 min charts after. Sometimes for smaller sums to easily achievable targets. So the 4hr system for me is a two tier one. Strict 4hr signals and the cascade effect onto my 5 mins. Neat. This has been a great help to me.
  • #14,192
  • May 2, 2008 2:10am May 2, 2008 2:10am
Quoting napeharm
My GBP fibs showing nothing in particular.
Wow above statement just shows how traders view the market 180 degrees from one another.

The fibs are telling me the following -

1. Very clear bounce on the 62% show 1H/4H price swing momentum is still to the upside. This should flag a warning about shorts.

2. The minor lower timeframe swing red fib again bounced from the 62% meaning the lower timeframe is entering Phillip's trending rhythm - indicating price on the lower timeframe may also be shifting back to the upside.

Entering shorts after the bounce on that minor swing is completely against both 4H momentum and short term momentum - making shorts very low proability trade at that point of entry. We want to enter trades that are in sync both with the 4H/1H momentum and the lower timeframe.

However Phillip did a great job managing the trade.
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  • #14,193
  • May 2, 2008 2:23am May 2, 2008 2:23am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I also spot that therefore my hesitation for a possible high probability RB trade. Well done. I t has to go above those bars for an upmove to have validility
Price has moved above those candles and went to the 8ema as anticipated when it breached those candles.
Next target 21ema. Position must be BE if you are long EurUsd
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  • #14,194
  • May 2, 2008 2:30am May 2, 2008 2:30am
Maxster; I think my point was also that people put fibs where they want to, which is why i dont often use them.
  • #14,195
  • May 2, 2008 2:56am May 2, 2008 2:56am
Nothing for the 12:00 candle as far as EurUsd and GbpUsd is concern. Will wait for NFP.
EurUsd up and down awaiting the NFP.
  • #14,196
  • May 2, 2008 3:08am May 2, 2008 3:08am
I took a TC trade on the GBPUSD that many here hve discussed.

My target profit was small at only 25 pips (while I was asleep I wanted to make certain I did not miss at least some profit) and my target price was 1.9725.

I have checked both my MT4 charts and Oanda, and they both show that the GBPUSD did touch my target price, and even go under by 3 pips down to 1.9722.

But my Target Profit was not hit, and I was then kicked out when my stop loss was touched around 30 minutes later.

Has anyone had this happen?

Is this a broker error, or is this just the nature of the business?

Should I contact Oanda and ask them about this, or is this expected?
  • #14,197
  • May 2, 2008 3:14am May 2, 2008 3:14am
Quoting unlv_tj
I took a TC trade on the GBPUSD that many here hve discussed.

My target profit was small at only 25 pips (while I was asleep I wanted to make certain I did not miss at least some profit) and my target price was 1.9725.

I have checked both my MT4 charts and Oanda, and they both show that the GBPUSD did touch my target price, and even go under by 3 pips down to 1.9722.

But my Target Profit was not hit, and I was then kicked out when my stop loss was touched around 30 minutes later.

Has anyone had this happen?

Is this a broker error, or is this just the nature of the business?

Should I contact Oanda and ask them about this, or is this expected?
No broker error its all down to spread. OANDA generally have good spreads / prices but you can check exactly by opening the bid or ask price on the chart and move the chart down to 30 secs then zoom in on the area where your target was not hit.

You probably missed it by 1 pip.
  • #14,198
  • May 2, 2008 3:27am May 2, 2008 3:27am
I actually show that price got down to 1.9720, but this was when news came out, so maybe the spread was increased or maybe it was so fast slippage caused my Target Profit to not be sold in time.

I don't know, but I do know I will keep this in mind in the future. I was successful in my trade, but I got stopped out due to something with my broker. The normal spread is 2.5 for the GBPUSD, and I made my target profit by up to a full 5 pips.
  • #14,199
  • May 2, 2008 3:35am May 2, 2008 3:35am
If it was a real money trade then its your duty to report anything you are not happy with. After all its your money they are playing around with. If they are a good broker they should give you the benefit of the doubt and return your funds,unless they have a better explanation for the situation. If you are concerned about it contact them. They owe you an explanation either way.
  • #14,200
  • May 2, 2008 3:46am May 2, 2008 3:46am
Its our responsibility to keep these bucket shops, sorry reputable brokers, honest by not letting them get away with any more than they already do.

About 18 months ago i was following the market one afternoon, and i was scrolling idly through my dealing pages and account info, and found..........my broker had opened a live trade by themselves...........OH_MY_GOD!.......yup, and it had been running for 45 mins or more as well without my knowledge. Of course i pressed the panic button and closed it immediately...........what a relief.
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