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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,861
  • Apr 22, 2008 7:04am Apr 22, 2008 7:04am
Well I suppose I underestimated the power of last 4h candle bouncing from tl support and 61.8 fib, and closing back up above 89sma.
But somehow I'm happy with my decision to stay out and to apply the rules as how >I understand them up to this point.
Let's see if price will reach the 200sma
Attached Image
  • #13,862
  • Apr 22, 2008 7:42am Apr 22, 2008 7:42am
Quoting islandtrader
Looks like there was a 'lower high' signal back to the 200sma:
-MACD making lower high
-Stop loss 38, profit target 50, R 1:1.3
-signal candle close just below 2.000
-Rule: after price moved through the 200 it tends to test the 200/21

Between the higher high and the lower high is no nice valley, so no trade for me, what are your thoughts on this?

I think it would be a great trade if you draw the TL like these. Price tested upper TL for the 3rd time and fell all the way to previous S/R lines (bright blue line), and also 61.8 fib level was nearby.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd tl.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #13,863
  • Apr 22, 2008 7:48am Apr 22, 2008 7:48am
Quoting Nigel
I think it would be a great trade if you draw the TL like these. Price tested upper TL for the 3rd time and fell all the way to previous S/R lines (bright blue line), and also 61.8 fib level was nearby.
Great TLs Nigel, thanks for pointing them out, with the bigger picture it makes more sense again
  • #13,864
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:23am Apr 22, 2008 8:23am
hi,

for me it was a very clear entry because of that candle. sl was 50 pips.
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  • #13,865
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:48am Apr 22, 2008 8:48am
E/U gave a TC but there was a nasty looking spike which has formed an "almost" double top. I actually took the early entry on the 1H but this pulled back and it looked very risky to me once the 4H closed and with the spike. So I have closed out with just a handful of pips.

I left the G/U alone.
  • #13,866
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:50am Apr 22, 2008 8:50am
USD/JPY (13:50 GMT)
potential setup? 16:00 (GMT+2) candle close in ten minutes
MACD could close with positive bar, ZB trade
Bounce of 21 and support
Attached Image
  • #13,867
  • Apr 22, 2008 8:55am Apr 22, 2008 8:55am
1.9740

Hope you GBP traders have this trendline on your charts. It bounced off the line for the millionth time. Check out post 13337 and 1338 for more examples.
  • #13,868
  • Apr 22, 2008 10:58am Apr 22, 2008 10:58am
USD/JPY
long 103.30
looked like a good setup
bounce of 103.00, tl, long wicks off 21ema
1hr charts shows bounces from 89
stop loss below recent lows, I know it's a big s/l
-69 pips
Attached Images
  • #13,869
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:22am Apr 22, 2008 11:22am
my lucky trade today.(entry was after some retracement after the TC siganl)
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  • #13,870
  • Apr 22, 2008 12:09pm Apr 22, 2008 12:09pm
Quoting mike1349
Nice to hear from you Palmer!!

Any news from Donna?

Good Luck
Mike
I believe Donna said she would be back in May. My guess is that she is still getting situated, looking forward to her returning as well...
  • #13,871
  • Apr 22, 2008 6:35pm Apr 22, 2008 6:35pm
Quoting brettboz
Hi Saka that was with me. By the way there is no way to measure volume in the forex market. Just by the nature of the beast there is no central exchange so volumes are an unknown quantity. There are several indicators out there which try to do some sort of estimate.
And yet another statement I read said that in the forex market the volume indicator is a measure of ticks, or trades, and not the actual money volume behind the lots/minis/micros being traded, nor the number of these units either. And now this statement that "volume" is further restricted to being a measure of that portion of the overall fx market that your MT4 server is aware of (and there are different MT4 servers as identified by the fact that different brokers offer MT4 that displays different base server times that cannot be changed).

Still, perhaps volume indicators have some merit. They still signal changes in activity, and this may be consistent across the exchanges/servers.....number of trades going up/down showing same around the world. Yes, one trade could be for 1 minilot and another for 100 lots, with the volume indicator showing only "2" trades, and in that respect it is not giving a true picture of the activity. But perhaps around the world, volume indicators are consistent in that they are all showing more, or less trades than in the previous timeframe. That is to say, even if on different servers the totals are different, they are all showing "increased" or "decreased" for the same timeframes where those timeframes are the same (1,5,15,30,60 minutes).

Two thoughts: 1) It behooves the movers of the market to NOT have a central exchange. Anything that keeps full and accurate data from being available simultaneously to everyone across the globe, makes it more difficult for the small traders to keep from losing their money to them. 2) "Volume" becomes less significant an indicator as the timeframe increases. While it can show if a breakout on a 1 minute, or 5 minute, or even a 15 minute chart is with an INCREASE, volume on a Day chart is a total waste of time.
  • #13,872
  • Apr 22, 2008 9:37pm Apr 22, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting brettboz
Hi Saka that was with me. By the way there is no way to measure volume in the forex market. Just by the nature of the beast there is no central exchange so volumes are an unknown quantity. There are several indicators out there which try to do some sort of estimate.
you are right - there is no accurate way to measure volume in the market.

However, volume is somethimes used as indication - just by an analysis of whether volume would be permitting during a general trading session or not.

A DECREASE in volume in the market (in generalities, just figuring out when there would be a decrease in trading volume, or open interest in the market) would lead to a GREATER VOLATILITY in the market.

Hence, around December - US public holidays, and major holidays, and Northern Hemisphere summer, we have generally an increased volatility in the market, with larger ranges.

This is mainly exhibited in the forex market only, or any other market that is highly liquid, than may have its spells of 'lower' volume. (Although the volume isnt that low)

An INCREASE in volume, generally sees an inclination to a TRENDING MARKET. An increase in volume pushes movements over stops, in a direction of market equilibrium. etc
  • #13,873
  • Apr 23, 2008 2:01am Apr 23, 2008 2:01am

  1. GBPUSD 4:00 (chart GMT+1)
  2. MACD: Agressive turnaround. Price: lower high, possible retracement to EMA21. Possible barrier - SMA200. Calculations:
  3. Open price: 1.9942
  4. SL Price: 2.0002, SL: 60 pips
  5. TP price: 0.5/1.9931, 0.5/1.9904, TP: 24 (11, 38) pips
  6. SINGLE OPENING.
  7. R:R-ratio: 0.40.
  8. Conclusion: no trade - SL too big, R:R poor.

Edit: both TP were hit and it seems that SL could be put lower (at 1.9975 - above 5min range or at 1.9960 - above the High of prev. 1H bar), but it looks Ok only now... Waiting for possible turnaround near EMA21.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GPB_230408_4_gmt+2.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #13,874
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:00am Apr 23, 2008 3:00am
Quoting Yorik

  1. GBPUSD 4:00 (chart GMT+1)
  2. MACD: Agressive turnaround. Price: lower high, possible retracement to EMA21. Possible barrier - SMA200. Calculations:
  3. Open price: 1.9942
  4. SL Price: 2.0002, SL: 60 pips
  5. TP price: 0.5/1.9931, 0.5/1.9904, TP: 24 (11, 38) pips
  6. SINGLE OPENING.
  7. R:R-ratio: 0.40.
  8. Conclusion: no trade - SL too big, R:R poor.

Edit: both TP were hit and it seems that SL could be put lower (at 1.9975 - above 5min range or at 1.9960 - above the High of prev. 1H bar), but it looks Ok only now... Waiting for possible turnaround near EMA21.

I think now GBPUSD is a good example when sometimes a pair twistes around the longer moving averages.
  • #13,875
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:04am Apr 23, 2008 3:04am
What kind of looks good is GBPJPY:
MACD with lower High (GMT+1)
89MAvg seems to be heavy resistance since yesterday
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  • #13,876
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:20am Apr 23, 2008 3:20am
Quoting RemingtonTJ
I think now GBPUSD is a good example when sometimes a pair twistes around the longer moving averages.
Agree. To me it seems that now the price may "pay more attention" to support/resistance lines than to MAs.
  • #13,877
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:26am Apr 23, 2008 3:26am
EURGBP GMT+1:

maybe a plain vanilla Phil's tsrategy trade:
close above 89
came back down to 8/21MAvg
TC + in MACD

R/R? I am not sure if it's worth, but it should see new highs then

I wait until candle is finished and then go long


Till
  • #13,878
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:34am Apr 23, 2008 3:34am
my above scenarios seem to be wrong after GBP is falling!
  • #13,879
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:36am Apr 23, 2008 3:36am

  1. EURUSD 4h 8:00, 1H 10:00 (GMT+1)
  2. MACD: possible TC on 4H and 1H but only preliminary.
  3. Price: after forming new high, retraced under EMA8 in the dir. to EMA21. As it's above SMA89 and once already bounced from the zone near EMA21, looks like an uptrend . If it turns up now, we can anticipate trend continuation.
  4. Calculations:
  5. Open price: 1.5986
  6. SL Price: 1.5952, SL: 34 pips
  7. TP price: 0.5/1.6007, 0.3/1.6015, 0.2/1.6050, TP: 32 (21, 29, 64) pips
  8. SINGLE OPENING.
  9. R:R-ratio: 0.94.
  10. Conclusion: trade is BAD either because of a big SL or poor R:R-ratio.
  11. No trade now. Waiting at least till 1H closes and will repeat analysis.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_4h_08-23-04-08_gmt+1.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_1h_10-23-04-08_gmt+1.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #13,880
  • Apr 23, 2008 3:38am Apr 23, 2008 3:38am
Quoting Yorik
Agree. To me it seems that now the price may "pay more attention" to support/resistance lines than to MAs.
Price usually does pay more attention to S/R than MAs anyway.
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