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  • #8,161
  • May 1, 2008 10:18am May 1, 2008 10:18am
I buy euro/usd long at 1.5987 and 1.5905 and now it s time to say bye bye my money
what we see depends mainly on what we look for...
  • #8,162
  • May 1, 2008 10:24am May 1, 2008 10:24am
the same for me .Was holding longs from 1.5670 with 1 LOT.I said goodbye to my money also
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  • #8,163
  • May 1, 2008 10:27am May 1, 2008 10:27am
Lets go against the market and finish all the margin
  • #8,164
  • May 1, 2008 10:31am May 1, 2008 10:31am
Already down approx. 200 pips since London open of today. Market continues to discount marginally bad news and U.S. economy still showing remarkable resistance to a prolonged recession. This pair will get a slight bounce on NPF numbers tomorrow (unemployment), however, will continue south and base around 1.5340 or so. Long need a bit more patience before the next leg up begins. It is foolish to bet against a surging dollar at this time. Daily chart clearly reflects a substantial correction approaching 600 pips. That is NOT a situation where one "buys the dips".
All that is needed for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing !!
  • #8,165
  • May 1, 2008 10:39am May 1, 2008 10:39am
Quoting ExpatXXXX
Daily chart clearly reflects a substantial correction approaching 600 pips. That is NOT a situation where one "buys the dips".
Actually a situation like that in many cases could mean exactly that. It's the 200 pip range that we've been stuck in for a week and was finally broken today at 55 that screamed short and still does for a while.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #8,166
  • May 1, 2008 10:47am May 1, 2008 10:47am
lol,
I go short @1.5440 IT go up to 1.5458 "18pip sl" loss
i go long @1.5455 IT go down to 1.5439 loss
  • #8,167
  • May 1, 2008 10:49am May 1, 2008 10:49am
Quoting egkid
lol,
I go short @1.5440 IT go up to 1.5458 "18pip sl" loss
i go long @1.5455 IT go down to 1.5439 loss
Stay where you are
  • #8,168
  • May 1, 2008 10:56am May 1, 2008 10:56am
This pair will not move to north anymore?
what we see depends mainly on what we look for...
  • #8,169
  • May 1, 2008 10:58am May 1, 2008 10:58am
Hi Everybody

I really need as many opinions as possible

i'm asking here the senior members or the experts who have been long enough in this market

1) can the market go back to 1.58 or 1.59 in a week or even 2 weeks or not?

2) do you see this as a corrective move needed to build a momentum to go up again
or this is it for the euro and this is a major trend reversal ?

3) if you think this a corrective move , how far can it go?


i know it's all controlled by fundamentals, but i'm sure you have more expert on that than me

Thanks a lot
  • #8,170
  • May 1, 2008 10:59am May 1, 2008 10:59am
Quoting Fx_Genius
"Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because working people tend to spend more money, and consumer spending makes up a large portion of GDP. This weekly indicator produces very timely data, but traders generally view unemployment as a lagging indicator that gives little indication of the economy’s future performance."

Unfortunately what this number doesn't tell you is the true number of unemployed only the number that filled. You cannot file more than once in US unless you have worked 30 days since last unemployment. During typical times this is a valid number as people file for unemployment, then get work. There are people who have been out of work in US, not getting unemployment because it has run out (time limitation of 6 months) and cannot file again.

While we have broken down past long & mid trends only time will tell if this is the top. As Europe is catching up with the US for economic and housing problems, it could be a signal for a trend change but I think there is more bad news in store for US as not all is revealed as the G7 asked.

If this is a turning point for E$, does this mean a stronger dollar? Not as long people have to make choices between oil, gas & food or home payments/rent.
Quoting kharvell
It's funny that when the trends start, we suddenly have a lot of winners (congrats winners). I wonder where these people were earlier this week..

My guess is losing.

At any rate, it is clear that USD is gaining strength. If we see a push past 1.5700, I see no reasons for it NOT to keep going down further. Genius's post is a good one. It's hard to say whether the poor US economy is what is affecting other countries or something entirely different. We all know I'm American-biased, so I'd probably say that the US economy IS affecting the world.
Well Kevin,
I hope you did better than me, no trades, no loss, just interest building.
Waiting for 1.5350-1.5300 then to 1.5500 entry, maybe.
With a long trend, sometimes the best position is out and I don't have the time for scalping right now.
  • #8,171
  • May 1, 2008 11:06am May 1, 2008 11:06am
Quoting emadanton
Hi Everybody

I really need as many opinions as possible

i'm asking here the senior members or the experts who have been long enough in this market
I'm not an expert, but I have stayed at a holiday inn last night so I will try.
Quoting emadanton
1) can the market go back to 1.58 or 1.59 in a week or even 2 weeks or not?
Can it, yes. Will it, doubtful but you never know.
Quoting emadanton
2) do you see this as a corrective move needed to build a momentum to go up again
or this is it for the euro and this is a major trend reversal ?
Corrective, long trend is still up.
Quoting emadanton
3) if you think this a corrective move , how far can it go?
1.53 area should be indicator to continue long trend.
Quoting emadanton
i know it's all controlled by fundamentals, but i'm sure you have more expert on that than me

Thanks a lot
  • #8,172
  • May 1, 2008 11:10am May 1, 2008 11:10am
i closed carries and went all in eu, sl 36 pips, aiming 15704,...tell me what u think,..
its just money
  • #8,173
  • May 1, 2008 11:30am May 1, 2008 11:30am
Quoting Fx_Genius
Well Kevin,
I hope you did better than me, no trades, no loss, just interest building.
Waiting for 1.5350-1.5300 then to 1.5500 entry, maybe.
With a long trend, sometimes the best position is out and I don't have the time for scalping right now.
Genius,

I've done alright since April 24th when I made a post about dollar gaining strength. I have had 4 winners, 1 loser and 1 break-even trade for a total of around 150 pips. Unfortunately, I missed the latest down move, but caught part of it in one of my other accounts. I missed it because I was not exactly positive that the USD was going to rebound further. I have another account which I trade speculations for fun, but I try to keep my main account very conservative.

Best of luck,

Kevin
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  • #8,174
  • May 1, 2008 11:53am May 1, 2008 11:53am
Quoting emadanton
Hi Everybody

I really need as many opinions as possible

I have many many opinions. I will fling a few of them out here in the same manner a monkey flings poo....

i'm asking here the senior members or the experts who have been long enough in this market

I am an 'expert'. Ex = "has been". Spurt = "Drop under pressure"

1) can the market go back to 1.58 or 1.59 in a week or even 2 weeks or not?

Sure. But I have no idea what it WILL do...

2) do you see this as a corrective move needed to build a momentum to go up again
or this is it for the euro and this is a major trend reversal ?

Wow - I don't know the answer to this either! All I know is that we had price action on the weekly for two weeks in a row that point 'down'. It could be a 'sign', much like leaves turning color and temperature turning colder is a 'sign'. It does not mean snow tomorrow, but it will soon ...

3) if you think this a corrective move , how far can it go?

I see three potential stopping places based on support/resistance. I do not know where things will reverse - but these points will likely provide entry opportunity.

The first was passed at around 1.5550 after a pause
The second we are *almost* at - 1.5400
The next is at 1.4900.

I also see interest around 1.5200 - that is a consolidation point that happens to coincide with a 50% retrace of the current major upswing started in Feb

I don't know where we will go to, but I am fairly convinced that the support at 1.4900 is very solid.

I hope it it goes to 1.4900. baby needs a new pair of shoes...


i know it's all controlled by fundamentals, but i'm sure you have more expert on that than me

I am not sure about either of those two statements....

Thanks a lot
Your are welcome. Best to you and yours!

Oh - learn a few things about this market and learn to formulate your own plan. OPO (other peoples opinions) stink. James16Group is a big help.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #8,175
  • May 1, 2008 12:08pm May 1, 2008 12:08pm
Fx_Genius & StoragePro

Thanks a lot for your reply


still hoping for other opinions for my post
  • #8,176
  • May 1, 2008 12:32pm May 1, 2008 12:32pm
This can be one of two things: First, a normal correction for the EU. If you look at the weekly chart, the pair was due for a retracement to the 61.8 fib at about 1.5412 or so. If that is the case, the pair can run WAY up on its way to the fib extensions. However, the second possibiliy is pretty grim for longs and shorts. In the second scenario the ECB wants the Euro weaker to make the europeans happy! If this is the case, the euro will continue to be bashed repeatedly back to the level that they want it at.

There is very strong support atthe 50% fib in the 1.5250 area, that offers a confluence to the psychological "50" level. beow that level is the 1.4800 psychological level that has a confluence with the 22.6% Fib. I'd suspect that the 1.500 level is low enough to make the ECB happy.



Quoting emadanton
Hi Everybody

I really need as many opinions as possible

i'm asking here the senior members or the experts who have been long enough in this market

1) can the market go back to 1.58 or 1.59 in a week or even 2 weeks or not?


Thanks a lot
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  • #8,177
  • May 1, 2008 1:55pm May 1, 2008 1:55pm
time to go long i guess
  • #8,178
  • May 1, 2008 2:17pm May 1, 2008 2:17pm
Quoting Bicala
time to go long i guess
I'm dangerously long right now, with +5 green pips, and I just hope it retraces a few more pips.
  • #8,179
  • May 1, 2008 2:19pm May 1, 2008 2:19pm
Quoting Bicala
time to go long i guess
bicala,

Are you trading with an overbought/oversold indicator? i.e. stochastics, RSI, MACD

My guess is that whatever it is, you are seeing oversold a lot, but that doesn't mean anything. You may think it means going up, but it's not definite. Neither is the fact that it's going down, but it's a better bet based on recent history. My opinions of course.

Good luck,

Kevin
  • #8,180
  • May 1, 2008 2:34pm May 1, 2008 2:34pm
Pivot is going to be key during the Asian session and into the euro sesion, if we fail to get an hourly close above 1.5500/1.5520 then we may see a break towards 1.5300 and lower...

Thoughts?
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