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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #6,241
  • May 1, 2008 6:01am May 1, 2008 6:01am
Quoting Kaligula
Shall we prepare for short now?

May 1, 2008 6:54 AM

USA data at 8:30 AM...If Jobless Claims are over 400,000 The Dow drops and USD/JPY tests the low at 103.54

If is much better than consensus then the Dow rallies.

At 10:00 AM is ISM and if the number is worse than consensus the Dow remains down if the Jobless Claims number was worse than consensus as pointed out above.

Then the BIG one tomorrow at 8:30 AM and a market mover even if the numbers are played with. Job losses over 100,000 just might be the straw that breaks the camels back and sends the Dow down 500 points. Then again a better than consensus number lets the Dow go up and the Yen down.

My call is for a loss of 110,000 Jobs and a BIG drop in the Dow. Please make your own call and decide whether you want in before or after the release of the number.

Good trading.


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #6,242
  • May 1, 2008 6:18am May 1, 2008 6:18am
Quoting Warren Forex
May 1, 2008 6:54 AM

USA data at 8:30 AM...If Jobless Claims are over 400,000 The Dow drops and USD/JPY tests the low at 103.54

If is much better than consensus then the Dow rallies.

At 10:00 AM is ISM and if the number is worse than consensus the Dow remains down if the Jobless Claims number was worse than consensus as pointed out above.

Then the BIG one tomorrow at 8:30 AM and a market mover even if the numbers are played with. Job losses over 100,000 just might be the straw that breaks the camels back and sends the Dow down 500 points. Then again a better than consensus number lets the Dow go up and the Yen down.

My call is for a loss of 110,000 Jobs and a BIG drop in the Dow. Please make your own call and decide whether you want in before or after the release of the number.

Good trading.


Bruce
so at 10AM USDJPY should be down?
  • #6,243
  • May 1, 2008 9:52am May 1, 2008 9:52am
Quoting Ultraman
so at 10AM USDJPY should be down?
With this pair, when it goes down, it will come back up ... that's the beauty of it ...
  • #6,244
  • May 1, 2008 5:09pm May 1, 2008 5:09pm
Ideal scalping condition right now ... the day/night before NFP ...
  • #6,245
  • May 1, 2008 5:11pm May 1, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting Schminner
Ideal scalping condition right now ... the day/night before NFP ...
It's going to trade above 105 by NFP time
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,246
  • May 1, 2008 5:12pm May 1, 2008 5:12pm
Quoting DutchTrader
It's going to trade above 105 by NFP time
Yes, it's a CHF follower.
  • #6,247
  • May 1, 2008 5:19pm May 1, 2008 5:19pm
Quoting DutchTrader
It's going to trade above 105 by NFP time
But before it makes its move up to 105 or wherever, you can pick up a few pips here and there in this calm condition .... and this is the calm before the storm (NFP) .....
  • #6,248
  • May 1, 2008 5:28pm May 1, 2008 5:28pm
I think the usd/jpy will take a down turn triggering stops along the way coupled with profit taking. Companies have been actively trimming jobs to ride out the slowdown. It's a no brainer. Poor NFP down goes u/j (Fraizer), down goes u/j (Frazier)!
I could be wrong
  • #6,249
  • May 1, 2008 5:48pm May 1, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting jharvin
I think the usd/jpy will take a down turn triggering stops along the way coupled with profit taking. Companies have been actively trimming jobs to ride out the slowdown. It's a no brainer. Poor NFP down goes u/j (Fraizer), down goes u/j (Frazier)!
I could be wrong
Depends on what "poor'" is.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,250
  • May 1, 2008 5:59pm May 1, 2008 5:59pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Depends on what "poor'" is.

If it is 100,000 or over that will be paid. I think it will not be to the market's liking. That being the case the Dow is not ready for bad news and seeing the Dow go below 13, 000 again will shock the market's.

We will see tomorrow at 8:30 AM

Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #6,251
  • May 1, 2008 7:31pm May 1, 2008 7:31pm
No one in the general public knows if the NFP numbers are good or bad but the market has been humming along these 2 weeks like it's all good now and subprime never happened...Like all the mortgage resets due this summer are all of a sudden not going to pose a problem because of our $400 incentive checks from the Feds.? Could be a setup for a major let down... Kind of like "Weekend at Bernie's"...it looks alive but it's really dead.
  • #6,252
  • May 1, 2008 7:33pm May 1, 2008 7:33pm
Quoting jharvin
No one in the general public knows if the NFP numbers are good or bad but the market has been humming along these 2 weeks like it's all good now and subprime never happened...Like all the mortgage resets due this summer are all of a sudden not going to pose a problem because of our $400 incentive checks from the Feds.? Could be a setup for a major let down... Kind of like "Weekend at Bernie's"...it looks alive but it's really dead.

http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b8...helicopter.jpg
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,253
  • May 1, 2008 7:43pm May 1, 2008 7:43pm
Broke thru 104.50 headed to 104.87 which as been the NY high for the past week I doubt we'll break thru 105 but if we do that will either be a pit stop towards 107/08 or a short area back to 102 should NFP be horrid.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,254
  • May 1, 2008 7:51pm May 1, 2008 7:51pm
UJ going up to 105 in next hour or two, cause CHF/JPY having a party at 100 at 9:30PM.
  • #6,255
  • May 1, 2008 7:54pm May 1, 2008 7:54pm
Quoting Clouds
UJ going up to 105 in next hour or two, cause CHF/JPY having a party at 100 at 9:30PM.
I'll be looking to play the 104.20/30 - 104.84/105.00 range pre-NFP
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,256
  • May 1, 2008 7:55pm May 1, 2008 7:55pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I'll be looking to play the 104.20/30 - 104.84/105.00 range pre-NFP
I think it will pass 105 with flying colors.
  • #6,257
  • May 1, 2008 7:58pm May 1, 2008 7:58pm
Quoting Clouds
I think it will pass 105 with flying colors.
Well if it does, there's nothing before 106
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,258
  • May 1, 2008 8:01pm May 1, 2008 8:01pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Well if it does, there's nothing before 106
Tokyo fix is coming up, not sure what that means.
  • #6,259
  • May 1, 2008 8:04pm May 1, 2008 8:04pm
Quoting Clouds
Tokyo fix is coming up, not sure what that means.
No major resistance, the big barriers is/was 104.84
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,260
  • May 1, 2008 8:06pm May 1, 2008 8:06pm
Quoting DutchTrader
No major resistance, the big barriers is/was 104.84
Not sure if there is any merit to the following, but usd/chf broke major resistance last night , and it was 104.4 for a while, and broke up to 105.2 and perched at 105, so it may be time for jpy break resistance...
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