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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #721
  • Mar 22, 2008 3:09pm Mar 22, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting FXNorm
people will bail out of dollars in a big way, maybe into the euro and the pound, but certainly into gold and silver.

[..]sorry to say, they will be[..]

[..]Playing the currency markets will be wild and wooly, the swings are going to be incredible[..]

This all of course, In My Humble Opinion - Norm

Using "will" / "certainly" / "are going to be" (statements of fact / inevitability) and then qualifying it as an opinion doesn't fit.

You can't tell the future nor can anyone. You can think/believe/take a guess/make a plan etc, but declaring this or that to certainly happen is just hubris. And adding the "just my opinion" as an afterthought doesn't save much of it.

It also sounds like trading advice(buy Gold and Silver now!!!!) - without a setup, no less(Gold SHORTS are currently around 80$ in the money and EURUSD is down 450+ pips) - and is just not a very responsible thing to post in my opinion.

You can have whichever belief and reasons for it, and it may or not turn out right, but you got to be careful how you word it, because in one thing you're right: there's a lot of newbies out there - and they just might take you serious and be influenced, regardless of what the outcome will or won't be.
I'd rather not be in a situation one day where I have to be reading the kind of "took your advice, staked enough like you said, but lost my account/got a margin call as Gold fell to 8xx$, what should I do now, should I refund and buy more Gold again?" posts / pms(theoretical scenario, but I hope one sees what I'm getting at). And I don't think that's what you had in mind when posting it either


I also think it's sensible to have fine granularity in sizing regardless of account size to allow proper position sizing(sounded like it's only for people with small amounts of cash).
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #722
  • Mar 24, 2008 5:32am Mar 24, 2008 5:32am
[quote=FXNorm;1916722]
Quoting JeffSmith
I set up a sell at 1.5394.


Sorry, but you're wrong about the trend, the 50 sma is over the 100 sma
and they are both pointing up,as John's method indicates they should for a daily uptrend, its rather simple to see when using moving averages. If the tips
of the 50 and 100 sma's were pointing down then the "bias" would be down, but they aren't, so they do indicate an uptrend and an up bias.
A breakout will work in either direction, depending on which way the price is manipulated. IMHO
if the trend is up, you would buy woudnt you? why woud you sell on a breakout in a down direction?
  • #723
  • Mar 24, 2008 8:16am Mar 24, 2008 8:16am
The win percentage is higher when trading with the trend, but counter trend trades can also be taken. As you can see, the eur/usd broke the 1.5400 level and dropped straight down to 1.5360, a 40 pip drop, before continuing down to the 38.2 fib level, for 20 more pips. The 38.2 level was a perfect place to take profits while waiting for a break of that level. If the 38.2 level had been broken, you could have initiated a new trade with the target being the next stop (50% fib level), if that level had been broken, you would initiate another sell order with a target at the 61.8 level.

Now that the price has been manipulated back into the breakout channel, we can wait for an upside break of the 1.5476 area. Btw - the break of the
1.5400 level was a perfectly stress free trade to the 38.2 fib for approx. 60 pips. I personally don't care which direction the price is being manipulated out of, I just watch the breakout carefully when its a counter trend trade.
  • #724
  • Mar 24, 2008 9:18am Mar 24, 2008 9:18am
Quoting FXNorm
The win percentage is higher when trading with the trend.
What have you seen that percentage to be when trading with it as opposed to against it?
  • #725
  • Edited Mar 25, 2008 6:59am Mar 24, 2008 4:05pm | Edited Mar 25, 2008 6:59am
Quoting JFX81
What have you seen that percentage to be when trading with it as opposed to against it?
For me, I've been ignoring the 50 and 100 and just going with daily trends (even just two day) and am at 76%.

So....back to the drawing board for me.
  • #726
  • Mar 25, 2008 9:51pm Mar 25, 2008 9:51pm
Usd/jpy has a couple of touches around the 99.60 area to the downside on the hourly chart and allready made a couple of swings to the downside.I'll check this one around the london open and see if it breaks this area.
  • #727
  • Mar 25, 2008 11:44pm Mar 25, 2008 11:44pm
Quoting JeffSmith
For me, I've been ignoring the 50 and 100 and just going with daily trends (even just two day) and am at 76%.

So....back to the drawing board for me.
Honestly that sounds pretty solid to me. If it is making you profits that is great
  • #728
  • Edited 7:07pm Mar 26, 2008 8:38am | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting tex123
Usd/jpy has a couple of touches around the 99.60 area to the downside on the hourly chart and allready made a couple of swings to the downside.I'll check this one around the london open and see if it breaks this area.
Hey Tex,

Excellent call on usd/jpy, another stress free downside breakout for 60 pips. I was watching the upside trendline break for 40 pips, before the downside break.

Keep the calls coming, if we can get a few more guys joining in with an occasional setup, that would be a big help.

The eur/usd trade I mentioned a few days ago is up 260 pips from the break point, with 170 more pips to go. If you folks missed that trade, you can still participate by entering on pullbacks near fib levels, if the fib level breaks, just close your position out for a small loss.

UPDATE: Eur/usd has rallied 385 pips since the breakout I mentioned, with only 40 more pips to go to hit the all time high.

Next player is Gbp/usd, I see it rallying over 800 pips from the 2.000 level, so climb aboard for another fun trip, play the pullbacks, and watch the fib levels. Enjoy and GL
  • #729
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:42pm Mar 26, 2008 7:42pm
EJ looks real good right now if my platform will work..busy busy..We have a 32.8 retracment from top to bottom on 1 hour chart and a trendline break around the 156.48 ish area .My target area will be at the 138.2 fib at 156.13 area tex
  • #730
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:46pm Mar 26, 2008 7:46pm
38.2 what i meant.I'm trying out a fib tool in conjuction with the trandline breaks which hopefully gives me a better confirmation or higher probabality trade will see.
  • #731
  • Mar 27, 2008 1:09pm Mar 27, 2008 1:09pm
Hey Norm, I'm looking at the eur/gpb to break at the 7894 area.We have a trendline from the upside and S&R.I have a buy now and will scale out as i go.First target around the 7917 area.
  • #732
  • Mar 27, 2008 2:17pm Mar 27, 2008 2:17pm
Quoting FXNorm
Next player is Gbp/usd, I see it rallying over 800 pips from the 2.000 level, so climb aboard for another fun trip, play the pullbacks, and watch the fib levels. Enjoy and GL


Is this John W strategy?
  • #733
  • Edited 7:29pm Mar 27, 2008 6:18pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Is this John W strategy?
no.

I'm looking at a nzdusd buy at .8072.
  • #734
  • Mar 30, 2008 6:45pm Mar 30, 2008 6:45pm
The aus/usd just broke a s&R line at the 9150 on 30 min chart to the downside. Tex
  • #735
  • Edited 8:54pm Mar 30, 2008 8:35pm | Edited 8:54pm
Quoting tex123
The aus/usd just broke a s&R line at the 9150 on 30 min chart to the downside. Tex
Good call Tex, for a quick scalp.

Price seems to be meandering around the breakout. Thats the type I'd close and wait for a drop below .9139 to see if the drop would continue down. The "hits" look good, but the breakout is questionable as to whether
all the players are in place.
Keep the calls comin, thanx

Just noticed, there's an 8 pip gap just above the breakout that may suck the price into it.
  • #736
  • Mar 31, 2008 11:54am Mar 31, 2008 11:54am
Thanks Norm, It finally went on down to the 9110 area. Tex
  • #737
  • Apr 21, 2008 11:19pm Apr 21, 2008 11:19pm
No updates in quite some time.
  • #738
  • Apr 21, 2008 11:46pm Apr 21, 2008 11:46pm
This thread hasn't died yet?
  • #739
  • Apr 30, 2008 4:59am Apr 30, 2008 4:59am
Quoting JFX81
No updates in quite some time.
You know, you could get on any thread on Forex Factory and give reasons why it will not work.

Just keep it up for a few months.

Eventually, there will be a time in the market when the system does not work.

Then you can sit around and say you were right and everyone else was wrong. You tried to convince them for their own good but they wouldn't listen.

What's the point?

JFX, if you have something that works, and I really believe you do, what's wrong with sharing it?

If you're not going to, then what good are you to this forum?
  • #740
  • May 1, 2008 6:35am May 1, 2008 6:35am
Quoting blueruby
You know, you could get on any thread on Forex Factory and give reasons why it will not work.

Just keep it up for a few months.

Eventually, there will be a time in the market when the system does not work.

Then you can sit around and say you were right and everyone else was wrong. You tried to convince them for their own good but they wouldn't listen.

What's the point?

JFX, if you have something that works, and I really believe you do, what's wrong with sharing it?

If you're not going to, then what good are you to this forum?
Good question Blue, I guess his mission is to boost his ego. I mean, the guy even quotes himself in his signature...
Liberate me ex inferis
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