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  • #481
  • Apr 29, 2008 12:56pm Apr 29, 2008 12:56pm
Here is an example on a 1 hour chart for the gbpchf. Just judging from the chart, we were in a move up. However, notice how price has broken the recent wave up. This could be the start of a bigger fall to come.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wave_collapse_example.gif Size: 7 KB
  • #482
  • Apr 29, 2008 1:10pm Apr 29, 2008 1:10pm
Just to keep with the euro, here is a daily wave that collapsed at around 1.5800. Again... no indicators, no trendlines (the horizontal line that I'm using isn't needed, you can see it without), no 50.0% retracement or even PA setups, just a simple line chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_dailywave_collapse.gif Size: 7 KB
  • #483
  • Apr 29, 2008 1:41pm Apr 29, 2008 1:41pm
Zoopy,
Great posts
This has got to be the ultimate K.I.S.S.
Once again, very intertesting posts.
Much appreciated
Colin.
Enter Signature
  • #484
  • Apr 29, 2008 1:58pm Apr 29, 2008 1:58pm
Zoopy,
I hope you don't mind me posting in your journal but regarding your recent posts I'd be interested to read your views on price breaking the support or resistance area and then there is a retest before moving on. I.e. as you suggest with a TL break.

Please see the chart below of GBPUSD
Price broke below last valley but then came back to test it before moving down again.
(might not be the best example but hopefully you get what I'm harping on about)

Cheers
Colin.
P.S. Dopey question of the day - How do you draw short lines your charts?
Enter Signature
  • #485
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:03pm Apr 29, 2008 2:03pm
Quoting cologg
Zoopy,
Great posts
This has got to be the ultimate K.I.S.S.
Once again, very intertesting posts.
Much appreciated
Colin.
Hi Colin

Thanks. Most of the things I have mentioned are really the basics. Sometimes it's good to go back to the basics. More often than not you don't need trendlines, fibs, indicators etc because price is sitting there screaming out what it's doing or about to do. It's just a matter of watching the movements.
  • #486
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:04pm Apr 29, 2008 2:04pm
and here's the chart
Attached Image
Enter Signature
  • #487
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:15pm Apr 29, 2008 2:15pm
Quoting cologg
Zoopy,
I hope you don't mind me posting in your journal but regarding your recent posts I'd be interested to read your views on price breaking the support or resistance area and then there is a retest before moving on. I.e. as you suggest with a TL break.

Please see the chart below of GBPUSD
Price broke below last valley but then came back to test it before moving down again.
(might not be the best example but hopefully you get what I'm harping on about)

Cheers
Colin.
P.S. Dopey question of the day - How do you draw short lines your charts?
Colin

Regarding a retest of that trendline, price "could" go up and retest it because it usually does retest areas it has broken. As I mentioned before... the market tends to do what it wants when it wants.

The chart you provided of cable is a very good example of what I have just posted about, when it comes to wave structures. Notice that once the wave "collapses", you start getting waves going lower.

The short lines on my chart I used the "trendline" tool. If you go to trendline properties, click on the "parameters" tab and uncheck "ray".

As for where do I see the euro going? I just checked my 1 hour line chart, euro made a small peak and looks like it wants to break the wave structure so my guess is down lol. Keep in mind we're also below 1.5600 so we may be seeing 1.5500 in the hours to come.


Hope this helps.
  • #488
  • Apr 29, 2008 2:45pm Apr 29, 2008 2:45pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Nice posts Zoopy
when i first started trading i was only using FXCM and the basic charts they provided, using only TL. strange thing is my rate of growth was much higher then, i then found FF and MT4 and lost the basics, masive drawdown and growth slowed.

strange world, but thanks for the reminder looking forward to the rest of the lessons, is there a prefered TF for this? from a discussion point of view.
  • #489
  • Apr 29, 2008 3:02pm Apr 29, 2008 3:02pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
4h chart shows S&R and then the break, that we are curently seeing??

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 14 KB


so then if we look at the Daily chart, we see the the potential target is 1.5400??

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eud.gif Size: 12 KB


how refreshingly simple this is, lines were only added for visual add to other members.

Now Zoopy, are we shorting this or looking for an intial entry at 1.5400 to play the bounce, jacko rules or not, don't want to confuse things to much, personnally it's still only a buy on EU, were just looking for better entries again.


Please ignor the sell line, i'm tesing an EA for a friend, this chart is on a demo account.
  • #490
  • Apr 29, 2008 4:08pm Apr 29, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting MPP
Nice posts Zoopy
when i first started trading i was only using FXCM and the basic charts they provided, using only TL. strange thing is my rate of growth was much higher then, i then found FF and MT4 and lost the basics, masive drawdown and growth slowed.

strange world, but thanks for the reminder looking forward to the rest of the lessons, is there a prefered TF for this? from a discussion point of view.
Hi MPP

lol, that's quite an interesting story you have there. I started with basic charts too on dailyfx, then started using MetaTrader with indicators. Then I moved to PA and trendlines, from there to Jacko's group and ever since then, my trading has become more simplified (speaking of which, these wave structures I'm talking about I don't trade - I'm using them more to learn the rhythm of price).

I tend to do all these little exercises including the round number one (if you're a Jacko member read email#3 in his latest blog) to help me get a feel for the market. That way when we get "weird" movements happening with a lot of chop, I'll know to stay out of the market because something big is about to happen.

Preferred timeframes... hmm. I'm pretty sure you could apply this to all although personally I wouldn't use this approach for anything under 1 hour. I use the daily charts right now to help define support areas when I'm trading Jacko's method. But... now I'm beginning to wonder whether you could just trade this the way I have described using proper money management. I just like the simplicity of it and to be honest, I have placed a few "dummy" trades and nearly all of them have been positive lol.
  • #491
  • Apr 29, 2008 4:19pm Apr 29, 2008 4:19pm
4h chart shows S&R and then the break, that we are curently seeing?? If you're going to use the line chart for support/resistance, I would tend to use the daily as it has proven very helpful in my trading. In the 4 hour chart you posted, there was a wave going up that started at around 1.5860. Notice that when price broke the bottom part of that wave, it just collapsed.

so then if we look at the Daily chart, we see the the potential target is 1.5400?? Yes, very good chance because there are no waves in between 1.5400 and 1.5600. Mind you, if we break 1.5400 it's open territory right down to 1.4850.


how refreshingly simple this is, lines were only added for visual add to other members.

Now Zoopy, are we shorting this or looking for an intial entry at 1.5400 to play the bounce, jacko rules or not, don't want to confuse things to much, personnally it's still only a buy on EU, were just looking for better entries again. Yes, just waiting for better entries to go long. I'll most likely be using the 1 hour to help tell me when the market has bottomed out. Wait for it to create a wave structure going up then break it before going long.
  • #492
  • Apr 29, 2008 4:27pm Apr 29, 2008 4:27pm
Even though I posted a gbpchf 1 hour chart earlier showing a possible break down, here is a daily chart showing how the wave structure was broken to the upside on a daily chart.

If price doesn't break the peak of the previous wave, gbpchf could be heading up in the long term and it may be starting to reverse now. However if it breaks the area around 2.0000 which is the bottom of the wave structure going up, it'll collapse again and head down further.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf_dailywave.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #493
  • Apr 29, 2008 4:40pm Apr 29, 2008 4:40pm
Figured I'd post this setup on the gbpjpy daily for good measure Price is going to have to decide which side of that wave it wants to break.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_dailywave.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #494
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:14pm Apr 29, 2008 7:14pm
We're about to break a wave on the Aussie 4 hour. Lets see if this wave collapses too (also note we have a head and shoulders pattern which is basically your weekly pinbar)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie_4hour_wave.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #495
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:57pm Apr 29, 2008 8:57pm
It better collapse... I'm in it. By the way great virtual graphic line chart presentation.
Attached Image
  • #496
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:06pm Apr 29, 2008 9:06pm
Quoting milan47
It better collapse... I'm in it. By the way great virtual graphic line chart presentation.
Hi Milan

Thanks. I'm watching it waiting to see which side of the wave it breaks. It hasn't broken any 4 hour waves going down and if it breaks the current wave to the upside, that weekly pinbar sure to fail lol. I'd probably place a dummy trade to go long then with the stop at the bottom of the current wave.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie_4hour_wave_boundary.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #497
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:20pm Apr 29, 2008 9:20pm
Quoting zoopy
We're about to break a wave on the Aussie 4 hour. Lets see if this wave collapses too (also note we have a head and shoulders pattern which is basically your weekly pinbar)
By far one of the most recognizable patterns in technical analysis.

OK. I'm just bored.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Head and Shoulders.gif Size: 59 KB
  • #498
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:25pm Apr 29, 2008 9:25pm
Quoting KissFan
By far one of the most recognizable patterns in technical analysis.

OK. I'm just bored.
lol. Is that your new approach to trading? I noticed you posted something similar in Tiki's journal.

I think everyone is bored. Might explain why Jacko's thread turned to poop. Indicators and what not flying around in that thread trying to catch pips when the market clearly isn't moving much.
  • #499
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:33pm Apr 29, 2008 9:33pm
Quoting zoopy
lol. Is that your new approach to trading? I noticed you posted something similar in Tiki's journal.

I think everyone is bored. Might explain why Jacko's thread turned to poop. Indicators and what not flying around in that thread trying to catch pips when the market clearly isn't moving much.
My new approach has failed me. I'm going back to reading the trend lines and trading in the sweet spots. I don't know enough about PA to trade solely with it yet. I cannot argue with success and I know that I'm supposed to know PA. It's just coming to me slowly. I've been demoing and getting my backside kicked. Just not posting demo stuff. I'm ready to make some money again.
  • #500
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:48pm Apr 29, 2008 9:48pm
Quoting KissFan
My new approach has failed me. I'm going back to reading the trend lines and trading in the sweet spots. I don't know enough about PA to trade solely with it yet. I cannot argue with success and I know that I'm supposed to know PA. It's just coming to me slowly. I've been demoing and getting my backside kicked. Just not posting demo stuff. I'm ready to make some money again.
Try the wave approach using line charts. Get back to basics and learn the market from the bottom up. We all know the market moves in waves plus Jacko has described very simply how you can determine the trend. See if you can use just simple wave structures to determine where price is going next. Learn the rhythm and movement. You'll be surprised and amazed what you can do when you only have one tool to work with. You'll most likely find new and inventive ways of using them too.

Once you have done the above, try watching price at round number levels. Again... no indicators, no trendlines, no fibs, just a line chart and round number levels. Once you have gotten the hang of it, then switch to trendlines and PA. Chances are, you'll be a minimalist by then when it comes to charting and realize that the more you have on your chart, the more you're likely to lose because it creates more confusion. You'll probably also realize that in the end, trading is all about probabilities and having more trendlines or indicators doesn't necessarily increase your chances of winning. In fact... they would all just say the same thing so you may as well just use a line chart lol.
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