EURUSD

Quoting tonyo524

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Look back through the threads. And don't get mad at me because you fail to read. That is one of the main problem with forums. A lot of people come into a thread 80 to 100 pages in without bothering to even read some of the past post to get up to speed. I'm sure you may have been trying to help, but that info has been posted already. Negative or helpful take this how you want.

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Quoting fxtrader42

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I dont know about all the other crap that is being said in this thread but is anyone else pumped for tomorrow.

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Quoting Schminner

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I'm pumped up for all the crap ....

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Quoting fxtrader42

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I dont know about all the other crap that is being said in this thread but is anyone else pumped for tomorrow. It should be a crazy day and hopefully a lot of volatility.

The fun starts at 5am EST with some CPI data and the unemployment rate data out of Europe. Those are only two of so many numbers coming out tomorrow.

It could be a very interesting day especially after looking at the consensus on my reuters feed for some of these numbers. The unemployment consensus is 7.1% same as the previous report. This could cause a huge swing in the EUR if the number comes out to be way different. Now I know that is a statement that should be obvious to everyone but this month could have an even greater impact if the number comes out different then what investors were expecting. I think most of us are trying to figure out not if but when Europe will start to slip into a recession. If that number is way worse then the consensus it could show signs that ECB may have to lower rates in the near to mid-term future. Then you have CPI coming out at the same time which will most interesting to see how the Euro Zone is combating inflation compared to the US. If it turns out that inflation is not as bad as previously thought that again will put a lot of pressure on Trichet to cut rates. The key point here is that it looks like Trichet will have to cut rates either before the end of this year or early next year but will this data show that he might have to do it sooner. Then to top it off, Trichet will speak just before 8am. I hope that we get some good numbers for the dollar tomorrow! Then we get a bunch of numbers coming out of the US tomorrow followed by the Fed announcement. All and all it should be a wild ride.

Does anyone else have some thoughts as to what kind of numbers we are going to see tomorrow out of Europe and the US?

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Quoting jeffwhf

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today will bee up or down?

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Quoting jeffwhf

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today will bee up or down?

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Quoting Aad

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Flip a coin or better yet stay away for today...

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Quoting fxtrader42

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I dont know about all the other crap that is being said in this thread but is anyone else pumped for tomorrow. It should be a crazy day and hopefully a lot of volatility.

The fun starts at 5am EST with some CPI data and the unemployment rate data out of Europe. Those are only two of so many numbers coming out tomorrow.

It could be a very interesting day especially after looking at the consensus on my reuters feed for some of these numbers. The unemployment consensus is 7.1% same as the previous report. This could cause a huge swing in the EUR if the number comes out to be way different. Now I know that is a statement that should be obvious to everyone but this month could have an even greater impact if the number comes out different then what investors were expecting. I think most of us are trying to figure out not if but when Europe will start to slip into a recession. If that number is way worse then the consensus it could show signs that ECB may have to lower rates in the near to mid-term future. Then you have CPI coming out at the same time which will most interesting to see how the Euro Zone is combating inflation compared to the US. If it turns out that inflation is not as bad as previously thought that again will put a lot of pressure on Trichet to cut rates. The key point here is that it looks like Trichet will have to cut rates either before the end of this year or early next year but will this data show that he might have to do it sooner. Then to top it off, Trichet will speak just before 8am. I hope that we get some good numbers for the dollar tomorrow! Then we get a bunch of numbers coming out of the US tomorrow followed by the Fed announcement. All and all it should be a wild ride.

Does anyone else have some thoughts as to what kind of numbers we are going to see tomorrow out of Europe and the US?

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Quoting ItalianSharp

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Well, this pair doesn't wanna hear about going down. Same has been happening to Oil, Gold and commodities. Same happened to the Nasdaq during the tech bubble.

By reading lots of posts around forums, the sentiment is extremely bullish, like 99% bullish. I read of traders getting long at horrible prices near all-time highs and adding contracts if Euro retraces...well, I guess it's been really easy money because no big retracement has come yet.

Anyways, the Euro is one of the biggest currency bubbles I've ever seen. At some point it's going to burst, and when that happens, all of us will know because it'll be a big POP.

As far as fundamentals, I continue to read about high inflation in Europe and economy holding up well.

I live in Europe and yes, inflation is high mainly due to oil and energy prices. I guess inflation is high everywhere around the world, not only in Europe. Actually, increasing oil prices should have a minor impact on Europe in terms of inflation due to the appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar.

Also, something else nobody has pointed out here. US inflation and EU inflation are measured much differently. EU inflation incorporates food and energy prices, while US inflation doesn't.

That's how you get low inflation. Just get rid of food and energy and voile', you can lower rates.

Another consideration about EU economy. I read comments on how the EU economy is independent from US economy and exports have been little affected by the strong Euro.

My answer is: NOT YET. According to my projections, wait until next June-July and you will see big european companies bitching about the strong Euro because it'll finally show on their income statements.

How can't Mercedes or BMW be affected by a 20% appreciation of their currency? You gotta be kidding me.

Just think of all the food companies as well, think of French wineries or tourism.

The most evident fact the Euro is a HUGE SPECULATIVE BUBBLE is that not only has the Euro reached insane levels against the dollar, but it's also at all-time highs against the pound.

How do you explain that? Are you now telling me that the UK is the same as the US? Or what about the Yen vs the Euro?

You must realize the Euro has been appreciating against everybody else.

Time will tell what really occured and why the Euro keeps going up. All I am certain of is that it will come down real hard, just don't know when. Same for oil and gold.

For the time being, follow the trend and exploit it until it lasts. We are traders, not economists.

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Quoting scyang

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It seems like most people on this thread are for euro strengthening, even though it has strengthened so much year-to-date already. I might the voice in the wilderness crying that it's time for euro to come down, possibly into 1.54 range.

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