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zoopy's trading journal

  • #461
  • Apr 27, 2008 10:04am Apr 27, 2008 10:04am
Here is what I'm seeing on the weekly charts.

The red-orange trendline with the zoomed out view shows the major trend.

The yellow-orange trendline shows the current trendline I'm working with (keep in mind we have two reference points). We also have a beob (bearish outside bar) showing a possible move down.

On my third chart I have indicated the trendline I'm currently working with and the 50.0% fib retracement. This chart I will be monitoring closely especially if we do drop. If we drop, I'll be watching 1.5150 as this will be the third touch of the trendline and also happens to be the 50.0% fib retracement. IF we break the trendline, we will be heading back down to the red-orange trendline.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_weekly_majortrend.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_weekly_beob.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_weekly_50.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #462
  • Apr 27, 2008 10:07am Apr 27, 2008 10:07am
Now that I have posted the weekly charts, we will look at what's happening on the daily chart. On my daily chart it's very clear we broke the trendline. Because of the break, price may head up to test the break before heading down lower.

In my next post we will zoom in further using the 4 hour timeframe to see what's really happening or what could happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily_trendbreak.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #463
  • Apr 27, 2008 10:12am Apr 27, 2008 10:12am
A closer look at the 4 hour shows the trendline break. IF price heads up, we may test the break of the trendline which also happens to be close to the 50.0% fib retracement going down. Price at the 50.0% shows 1.5786 or 1.5800 which would be an area to keep an eye on if you do happen to be long.

In the following post I will have one more chart (line chart) showing possible resistance based on the peak/valley system I use.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_trend50.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #464
  • Apr 27, 2008 10:16am Apr 27, 2008 10:16am
Here is the daily line chart with two reference points. Notice that if price were to continue up and hit this line, the line registers at 1.5800 which coincides with the previous post using the 4 hour chart showing the trendline break and 50.0% fib retracement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily_linechart.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #465
  • Apr 28, 2008 2:02pm Apr 28, 2008 2:02pm
I wanted to add this example into my journal so that I remember this for future trading. Below is a quote that Jacko posted in his journal.

Price does not like support or resistance levels. It mostly tests them and then moves away quickly. You’ll rarely find much price action in the vicinity of the line.

If price is hanging around a support or resistance level, it’s likely to break in the opposite direction.

For example we know that professional traders love round numbers to target...it brightens up their dull day to push and cajole the market to a target number. Now Euro/USD 1.3000 is the roundest number there is around those levels, so the pros have gotta be saying that the big game in the industry is to now grind and push the market to 1.3000. After that they don't care, they have had their fun...and thats why a market will whip and drop/rise dramatically straight after the target has been hit.

Below is a chart showing how the euro started to whipsaw and slow down around 1.5900. Once we hit 1.6000, the market made a drop.

The reason for putting emphasis on this example is because I'm going to try and be more aware when this behaviour happens around the 500/1000 levels ie. 1.5500, 1.6000, 1.6500 etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #466
  • Apr 28, 2008 7:58pm Apr 28, 2008 7:58pm
Hey Adrian,
Did you see this on the weekly G/Y?

Perfect Doji with a reversal the next day.

MG
Attached Image
  • #467
  • Apr 28, 2008 8:08pm Apr 28, 2008 8:08pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hey Adrian,
Did you see this on the weekly G/Y?

Perfect Doji with a reversal the next day.

MG
No. I don't trade gbpjpy. I'd be a little careful with a short on that pair though, if you look carefully you have a weekly dblhc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_weekly_dblhc.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #468
  • Apr 29, 2008 3:16am Apr 29, 2008 3:16am
Quoting kaunasny
eur/usd showed some weekness on friday before weekend close. This drop could be it. Ofcourse we have to be carefull since this is still very much a downward movement. But I'll be looking for an entry on monday.

Zoop, your beob theory seems to be valid. I'll take extra precoutions for a buy entry on monday.
Just an update. I took the trade on monday. I did not feel comfortable placing and order over the night because we had a strong down candle before I went to sleep and when I woke up I saw market had touched 1.5600 and reaching as high as 1.5680, however it retraced and I entered on the way up at 1.5630 . I was and usually am using 50 pip TSL to a break even point and then expand it to 100 TSL once I'm at BE , market went as high as 1.5690's so I was a BE before market came back. Staying out for now since it's failing to brake 1.5700,
Market is now at 1.5560, probably we're gona move down some more. Thought I dont think it will go to 1.5200 soon. We're going to have other trys to go north and I will hunt them.

Thought I would agree this time wouldn't be the smartest time to buy this market , because I think ECB is still trying to drive eur down.
but market has fell over 450 pips and is due for a more serious correction.
  • #469
  • Apr 29, 2008 4:13am Apr 29, 2008 4:13am
Hi everybody on this thread,

I am glad I can be here with you.
The E/$ is in indecision area in my opinion. I will wait and see if it breaks to the downside. I think patience pays off in the long term.

Ocean
  • #470
  • Apr 29, 2008 5:29am Apr 29, 2008 5:29am
Quoting Ocean
Hi everybody on this thread,

I am glad I can be here with you.
The E/$ is in indecision area in my opinion. I will wait and see if it breaks to the downside. I think patience pays off in the long term.

Ocean
Hello all,

My gut feeling is it will keep re-tracing to around the 1.5400 but I think it wont go straight there. On the daily there is a significant Resistance (around start of March) turned support (near the end of March) at this level. I will be waiting for the next push north before getting back in long. Would love to see low 1.53s to enter at 1.5400 on the way back up.

K8
  • #471
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:14am Apr 29, 2008 7:14am
Here's my daily line chart showing the support areas. Notice how the line has now pierced through 1.5600 and there aren't any support lines nearby except for the 1.5400 (keep in mind this is based on just the defined valley, there aren't two reference points meaning it could easily fail as support)? This is something I would keep an eye on because if we pierce 1.5400, we will have to start watching the weekly trendline and 50.0% fib retracement. It also means if those areas fail, we could be heading down quite a bit to 1.4850.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily_linechart.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #472
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:27am Apr 29, 2008 7:27am
Quoting zoopy
Here's my daily line chart showing the support areas. Notice how the line has now pierced through 1.5600 and there aren't any support lines nearby except for the 1.5400 (keep in mind this is based on just the defined valley, there aren't two reference points meaning it could easily fail as support)? This is something I would keep an eye on because if we pierce 1.5400, we will have to start watching the weekly trendline and 50.0% fib retracement. It also means if those areas fail, we could be heading down quite a bit to 1.4850.
I agree with you. We could see quite a bit downward move if 1.5400 fails.

Ocean
  • #473
  • Apr 29, 2008 7:38am Apr 29, 2008 7:38am
Here's another trap the market decided to set. Notice how the 4 hour went up without a retracement down first? Also keep in mind we're below 1.5600 and whenever I say we're below a round number level, price is more likely to drift down to the next round number so be prepared to possibly see 1.5500. Also be prepared to buy because I've just mentioned it and the market likes to remind me who's right
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_trap.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #474
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:55am Apr 29, 2008 8:55am
Quoting zoopy
Here's another trap the market decided to set. Notice how the 4 hour went up without a retracement down first? Also keep in mind we're below 1.5600 and whenever I say we're below a round number level, price is more likely to drift down to the next round number so be prepared to possibly see 1.5500. Also be prepared to buy because I've just mentioned it and the market likes to remind me who's right
LOL. I spoke too soon. We're now almost back at 1.5600.
  • #475
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:06am Apr 29, 2008 9:06am
Not neceserely, it broke through 1.5600 strong, and now is comming back to it to test it. Once it gets there, it will encounter resistence and will fall back to 1.5500
  • #476
  • Apr 29, 2008 9:16am Apr 29, 2008 9:16am
Quoting kaunasny
Not neceserely, it broke through 1.5600 strong, and now is comming back to it to test it. Once it gets there, it will encounter resistence and will fall back to 1.5500
Not sure lol. Anything's possible. It also broke a 4 hour trendline way back and hasn't retested that area either. If it drops here, it's going to be similar to what it did around 1.5700.
  • #477
  • Apr 29, 2008 10:31am Apr 29, 2008 10:31am
This is just a reminder for me when I get back to my journal later today (have to head out now). This week I'll be posting something a little different to what I've posted before. It has nothing to do with how I trade Jacko's method. I'm going to attempt to analyze the movement of the market without the use of PA/price pivot zones/fib retracements/trendlines/round numbers and the likes. I guess you can say I'm going to look at the market through the eyes of a child and how they would most likely trade it and whether it would work. I'd probably get flamed by some of the more experienced traders for the simplicity of it but you'll see where I'm going with this in the end.

be back later...
  • #478
  • Apr 29, 2008 12:35pm Apr 29, 2008 12:35pm
Ok... this is going to be the introduction to what I will call learning the rhythm of the market. This doesn't only apply to the euro but to all pairs. There are no indicators, no PA setups, just a simple line chart. I won't be using any trendlines or 50.0% fib retracements either. I guess you can call this the "basics".

First I'm going to post a chart showing a very simple example and explaining a lot of what Jacko mentions when determining the trend. In this chart, price starts at the bottom left and ends at the top right. From this alone, we can gather that the trend is up (ie. If it looks like it's going up, it probably is. Learn to trust your gut).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wave_uptrend.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #479
  • Apr 29, 2008 12:47pm Apr 29, 2008 12:47pm
In the next chart, I have marked off specific areas. Moves up you'll notice tend to break the peaks (marked off by the orange horizontal lines).

In my 2nd chart, I have marked off certain areas of these wave "structures" that help me in determining whether a move up will continue or the waves will collapse and start moving lower. Using a green box, I have highlighted the peak of the first wave (also see the horizontal green line). I have also marked off the bottom of the first move down using a blue box. Notice that when price decided to go down, it didn't go further than the level of the green box before heading up. This tells me that price is likely going to resume up which it does end up doing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: wave_explanation.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #480
  • Apr 29, 2008 12:50pm Apr 29, 2008 12:50pm
In my final chart, I have what I call a wave "collapse". Price ends up going lower but instead of bouncing up where the blue box is highlighted, it falls through and "breaks" the wave heading lower. When you see these movements, there is a very good chance the trend may be reversing on whatever timeframe you're using.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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