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Diary of a Mad Surfer

  • #501
  • Mar 27, 2008 8:53am Mar 27, 2008 8:53am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
well since I'm the only one here I'll answer your question BWR. It means gold hit a resistance level and failed to close above it signaling that gold may drop down even further and if gold drops then swissy drops and if swissy drops then the dollar should raise (should) however it also means that gold could be consolidating and will decide on it's direction at a later date and time. Blah, ba blah ba freaking blah.
No, you are not only one here. It's this figigng market that isn't giving any clear sense of direction. Imvho, gold should be headed back up. When? That is the million dollar or better yet, million Euro answer.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #502
  • Mar 31, 2008 4:52am Mar 31, 2008 4:52am
Quoting Ash
No, you are not only one here. It's this figigng market that isn't giving any clear sense of direction. Imvho, gold should be headed back up. When? That is the million dollar or better yet, million Euro answer.


Range
Just Trade It
  • #503
  • Mar 31, 2008 11:51am Mar 31, 2008 11:51am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
how much of this do you think is down to end of year finance/tax, many companies/people will be trying to work out all the BS and see what the tax man wants.
  • #504
  • Apr 1, 2008 3:52am Apr 1, 2008 3:52am
Quoting MPP
how much of this do you think is down to end of year finance/tax, many companies/people will be trying to work out all the BS and see what the tax man wants.
That and this "temporary" bottom the experts think we have found. If this is a true bottom for the U.S economy then I would look for the dollar to rally and the Euro to drop. You can already see it in the gold and oil charts. Swissy is leading E.U as well. The proud German led ECB thought they were immune to this world wide sub prime credit melt down which is coming to bite them on the ass just as U.S and the U.K will start to recover.
Just Trade It
  • #505
  • Apr 1, 2008 4:50am Apr 1, 2008 4:50am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
That and this "temporary" bottom the experts think we have found. If this is a true bottom for the U.S economy then I would look for the dollar to rally and the Euro to drop. You can already see it in the gold and oil charts. Swissy is leading E.U as well. The proud German led ECB thought they were immune to this world wide sub prime credit melt down which is coming to bite them on the ass just as U.S and the U.K will start to recover.
more months ahead of trading based on which is the weakest currency, instead trading the strongest - not easy

i still think mid Aprill will see some stong carry trade moves espcially on AJ - buy and hold - people will trade the interest rate difference and take the risk that the Aussie will increase rates at least once more.
  • #506
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:27am Apr 17, 2008 6:27am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
So were is the pound finding it's strength - is this time to sell the pound
GJ, GU and Gchf and buy the Euro Eur/gbp? could make for some good entry points i think, prices need to respact there current MA's and fib points and of we go.

will be back later today with a more detailed view on this.
  • #507
  • Apr 20, 2008 9:02am Apr 20, 2008 9:02am
Hey BWR,

What are your thoughts on the Euro? Could it be possible that with a BS rebound in the equity markets that the impact on the Euro will bearish? Looking at th charts, EU is still in bull mode but it had a tough time (took five times) breaking the 1.59 barrier and with the sudden rebound in the equity markets, Euro tanked.

The fundamentals aren't just adding up. Something is missing. Cant place my finger on it, just yet.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #508
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:21am Apr 25, 2008 2:21am
Top for A.J ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 23 KB
Just Trade It
  • #509
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:29am Apr 25, 2008 2:29am
Quoting Ash
Hey BWR,

What are your thoughts on the Euro? Could it be possible that with a BS rebound in the equity markets that the impact on the Euro will bearish? Looking at th charts, EU is still in bull mode but it had a tough time (took five times) breaking the 1.59 barrier and with the sudden rebound in the equity markets, Euro tanked.

The fundamentals aren't just adding up. Something is missing. Cant place my finger on it, just yet.

Market sentiment may be that the dollar is over sold, Thats what some traders were telling me at the bar the other night ( same day it hit 1.60 ) I've been long on the dollar since. E.U , G.U, Swissy.
They key was the P.A on Swissy where the real strength of the dollar is measured. As E.U went up to 1.60 Swissy failed to break a trend line and Dollar was gaining strength on CHF as it was losing against the Euro
Just Trade It
  • #510
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:34am Apr 25, 2008 2:34am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Market sentiment may be that the dollar is over sold, Thats what some traders were telling me at the bar the other night ( same day it hit 1.60 ) I've been long on the dollar since. E.U , G.U, Swissy.
They key was the P.A on Swissy where the real strength of the dollar is measured. As E.U went up to 1.60 Swissy failed to break a trend line and Dollar was gaining strength on CHF as it was losing against the Euro
Thanks for the insight!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #511
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:40am Apr 25, 2008 2:40am
Quoting MPP
So were is the pound finding it's strength - is this time to sell the pound
GJ, GU and Gchf and buy the Euro Eur/gbp? could make for some good entry points i think, prices need to respact there current MA's and fib points and of we go.

will be back later today with a more detailed view on this.
Let me try to explain this chart. Green fibs are on the March candle, Red Fibs are on last weeks candle. 13 and 200 ma.
It failed at the monthy (green) short level. (daily candle closed below this level) It also failed to break above the short fib (purple) which is the last swing on the weekly chart (not candle) Then below 13, 200 and a trend line is now in the weekly short area.

But this gets better.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 23 KB
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  • #512
  • Apr 25, 2008 2:44am Apr 25, 2008 2:44am
Quoting Big Wave Rider

But this gets better.

A fib fan from dec, 2005 to dec. 2007 ready to test the 50% level

G.U daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 23 KB
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  • #513
  • Apr 26, 2008 12:49pm Apr 26, 2008 12:49pm
BWR,

I think the USD swims with the fishes again later this week. As for AJ I do believe there's a top in place, along with AU.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #514
  • Apr 29, 2008 8:30am Apr 29, 2008 8:30am
Quoting DutchTrader
BWR,

I think the USD swims with the fishes again later this week. As for AJ I do believe there's a top in place, along with AU.
Just Trade It
  • #515
  • May 1, 2008 1:54pm May 1, 2008 1:54pm
Target for E.U is 1.5316, T1 of April's candle and the 100
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 19 KB
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  • #516
  • May 1, 2008 2:29pm May 1, 2008 2:29pm
Cable needs to break this resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 21 KB
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  • #517
  • May 11, 2008 11:25am May 11, 2008 11:25am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Target for E.U is 1.5316, T1 of April's candle and the 100
Target hit. I sank your battleship.
Just Trade It
  • #518
  • May 11, 2008 3:30pm May 11, 2008 3:30pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Target hit. I sank your battleship.
Nice trade, nice area of support, i went long from there. lets see if the major trend holds anything for me.
  • #519
  • May 11, 2008 4:53pm May 11, 2008 4:53pm
Quoting MPP
Nice trade, nice area of support, i went long from there. lets see if the major trend holds anything for me.
I took profit there, will wait for it to cross the 13 (daily) or above the 200 on the 4hr. before I go long.
Just Trade It
  • #520
  • May 11, 2008 4:59pm May 11, 2008 4:59pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I took profit there, will wait for it to cross the 13 (daily) or above the 200 on the 4hr. before I go long.
Make sense, i was planning on adding at the 200 also.
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