DislikedThanks Billflet {Bill}, That's the post I was looking for. Still in the same Frame of Mind.Ignored
This week's hourly E/J was a good example of a stacking opportunity and your stop strategy would have kept us in all week.
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DislikedThanks Billflet {Bill}, That's the post I was looking for. Still in the same Frame of Mind.Ignored
DislikedI might be getting trader's insomnia, you know, fear of missing out on a good trade setup while sleeping. Those of you on the east coast know I'm talking about. Woke up extra early this morning, and was rewarded with catching the downtown express on cable (IB at 9 GMT). Risk was only 37 pips, for a very nice gain so far (+3x risk). This is a very nice tool to add to anyone's trading toolbox, as long as you're awake & alert when the setup takes place.Ignored
DislikedI was compelled to include this chart of today's action in the Eur/Usd.
For the record, I personally took every one of the indicated breakout trades-- sells and the buy today, obtaining at the bare minimum a 1:1 reward/risk ratio per trade, and on most of them, a 2:1 or 3:1 reward to risk ratio-- because of the speed and distance the market moved after the breakouts.
What I like about these simple trades is the tendency to be able to cover your risk quickly by exiting half of your position at 1:1, allowing you to hold the remaining position with the initial stop (the other side of the inside bar) as a virtual "free trade".
In a larger term time frame you can stack on quite a position over a period of a few weeks with these "free trades". If the market quickly goes against you, you have the stops already in place. Then it is back to work building these structures up again until a huge move which is your payoff move of thousands of pips on large size.
Thanks for all the kind comments and messages sent to me about this. You have all been very generous in allowing the posts about this style.
Have a great rest of the week.
-Peter-Ignored
DislikedPeter,
Great job thus far... I have just looked at this thread for the first time and I have to say I have enjoyed what I have read thus far. I havent got through the entire thread but I have a question about this post and was hoping you could clear this up for me. On April 2, it looks like the second bar would have been an inside bar that would have created a sell signal using your strategy. Am I missing something here? If so, what am I missing and if I am not missing something why didnt you draw a red line or why didnt you enter a trade at that point? Thanks and all the best!Ignored
DislikedPeter, many thanks for share your ideas here. Id like to ask some questions. English is not my native language so sorry if there are some errors.
1- lets say we have a valid setup to sell but price go up and broke the inside bar: if price came back and broke down the inside bar this still a valid setup? if yes, how many bars or how many time you will aceppt to say that this setup still valid? EURUSD today had a inside with a long setup is it possible to take a sell too (i undurstend that it need to be in the 9-10 first hours)?
2-today's GBPJPY open bar (bar that openned 1:00 EST) was an inside bar itself. when price broke it down was a valid sell? when it came back and broke up it was a valid buy?
3-what about gaps? how do you trade it?
4-i am confuse about the importance of the daily trend. In the examples you gave you took trades in the same day in both directions. Do you increase lots when the trade is in the direction of the daily trend?
many thanks again.Ignored
DislikedHello Peter,
.... Now, as always with great replies, follow more questions.
There's something in your reply that had me a bit confused, the main one being your comment:
Without mirth, what you need to accomplish as a trader is get aboard a move before everyone else does, and not get bucked off by some swings after you get on. That may translate to "momentum" to you, but not to someone else.
How does one get onto a move before everyone else does? My reading has led me to surmise that most trading methods are one of three, trend following long-term, breakouts, and waiting for a pull back once a move has started. The only thing that I can see as getting into a move before a move starts is the break out, but I have seen more breakouts being false breaks than real breakouts. Hence, wouldn't it be more prudent to actually wait for a move to start, wait for a pullback and then get in on it?
It basically comes down to you having an edge that you are aware of that others aren't. You take your trades, the market facilitates you, and you profit because the majority of market participants really don't have much of a clue, even if they have been operating for a long time.
Now,first I thought you were talking about the majority being the retail traders who are just doing this for a hobby and trying to make a small amt here and there. But the last part of the line made me think again. For me the majority in the market are the big boys, and since they have been operating for a while, surely they would have a clue. If they don't have a clue, there isn't much hope for me http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif.
You gave me a list of the big boys, putting them in 3 categories. I couldn't think of who fits in the first category, but the second one is obviously the banks, and who as you said provide the liquidity, so they make their money regardless. It is the third category that I am interested in, ie funds. If they trade on price and time, and any derivative of these two, why is it they do not have the "luxury" of us smaller traders of have the option to wait till conditions suit us? Wouldn't they have strict criteria for entering, hence probably having to wait more than the retail trader who can probably exercise a bit of "faulty" discretion?
Lastly, about what you stated as being the open of the session. Was that 6am London time or GMT time, as there is a 1 hr difference b/w them now due to day light savings? Also, will you take trades before the session opening bar, and after your arbitary 9-10 hours have passed from the day before? ie say, at about 4am there is a valid entry signal, will you take that or wait till after 6am to take ur trades?
As always, looking forward to your reply.Ignored
QuoteDislikedHow does one get onto a move before everyone else does? My reading has led me to summise that most trading methods are one of three, trend folliwing long term, breakouts, and waiting for a pull back once a move has started. The only thing that I can see as getting into a move before a move starts is the break out, but I have seen more breakouts being false breaks than real breakouts. Hence, wouldn't it be more prudent to actually wait for a move to start, wait for a pullback and then get in on it?
QuoteDislikedBut the last part of the line made me think again. For me the majority in the market are the big boys, and since they have been operating for a while, surely they would have a clue. If they don't have a clue, there isn't much hope for me
QuoteDislikedIt is the third category that I am interested in, ie funds. If they trade on price and time, and any derivative of these two, why is it they do not have the "luxury" of us smaller traders of have the option to wait till conditions suit us? Wouldn't they have strict criteria for entering, hence probably having to wait more than the retail trader who can probably exercise a bit of "faulty" discretion?
QuoteDislikedWas that 6am London time or GMT time, as there is a 1 hr difference b/w them now due to day light savings? Also, will you take trades before the session opening bar, and after your arbitrary 9-10 hours have passed from the day before? ie say, at about 4am there is a valid entry signal, will you take that or wait till after 6am to take ur trades?
DislikedPeter
It's not easy to ditch what I've spent years learning. But...
I started filtering my normal trades by applying your Up Or Down On The Day Rule. I'm sure you can guess my results--fewer trades, higher (significanty higher) win to loss. That rule alone made a measurable difference in my trading.
Now I'm taking more and more DIBS setups, again with very pleasing results. Not to mention the simplicity eliminates a lot of stress. I'm finding the DIBS setups get me into the trade a lot quicker than my everyday method. My normal way signals a lot of the same trades, but many pips behind, depending on the length of the breakout bar.
To anyone else following this thread: Do yourself a favor and trade the most active hours no matter how tough that seems. It makes a world of difference. There's nothing more discouraging than watching a seemingly good trade wither on the vine during the late NY afternoon.
Thanks again Peter--this is good stuff.Ignored
DislikedHello Peter, great thread and strategy, I didn't thought someone posting a trading strategy can catch my attention anymore. I was wrong!
I have a question, using 06:00 GMT as the start of the trading day, do "european" pairs (cable, euro) work better than say usdjpy or audusd?
Thanks!
-sosoIgnored
QuoteDislikedAnd right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it.
Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
DislikedI only like to take trades that have low risk and are in the direction of least resistance, the main trend.Ignored
DislikedYour kindness in sharing your knowledge is most appreciated.
Two questions please.
Do you ever use discretionary trading based on your years of trading experience to attempt to pick relative tops or bottoms for long term (multi-year) trades?
It appears to me that using the DIBS method would by default, place a trader in a long term trade. Do you find this is so with your long term experience trading the DIBS method?
Good luck on that CHF trade
Ignored