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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues 11,328 replies

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No Free Lunch: Director's Cut

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Jun 19, 2008 8:27pm Jun 19, 2008 8:27pm
It just occured to me that "This is, perhaps, exactly the reason this Room exists."

Rule # 1. PM's &/or e-Mails;
Recipients discretion
perhaps may not be responded to without Prior Trading Room Forum Request for Permission to do so.


Rule # 2. {If the Thread has legs, then Read It! All of it!}
If you ask a question answered previously, then don't expect an answer to your Post other than, perhaps, "Read".

That's it. Play Nice. Fire will be dealt with as fire should be & extinguished.

Why This Thread?
Just an effort to keep the Gloms away.

This thread is Open to All that have the ability to Post Here under "The Above Rules" {Not FF Endorsed.}

(I disdaine seeing a colleague leave due to ...suckers & hopefully this will help.)
BMc
Call me a thief but this is One of The Best Reads in some time & I couldn't let the opportunity go.
The Condensed Version is now OPEN to Experienced Only Input.

Apologies to J & Mpp et al for the plagiarism
---From Jarroo's Thread {Or Mine, Or Whatever. It doesn't matter to me}

Jarroo's Thread...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86766

Jarroo's Thread contains...
This is a continuation of the DIBS Method which was started at the
No Free Lunch but all the coffee you can drink thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=56907

The bottom of the page is all of Peter's posts, thanks to doubletop.

It is a must to read and study the above thread to be current with this thread.

I would like to thank NowAndLater for putting this together.

Opening time
I think MPP sums it up nicely:
0600GMT is always 0600GMT. GMT and UTC never move all other times are +/- of GMT/UTC. ie london is currently GMT+1, your broker times are set to a GMT time and never change. BST, DST and EST change at differrent times so can be confusing.

I believe PC uses 0600GMT at all times, this way he can set his charts up get used to where the 0600gmt open is and forget about the confusion of BST EST and so on.
Peter:
"I use 00:00 CST or 06:00 GMT as my open. Believe me, if you are off 1 hour due to Daylight Savings time it is not going to be a problem."
NowAndLater's great post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=679

What’s an Inside Bar (candle)?
A bar with a High that is lower than the previous bar’s High and a Low that is higher than the previous bar’s Low. A stricter definition for trading the DIBS Method is that an IB cannot exceed the bounds of the previous bar. Meaning that a top and/or bottom (High and/or Low) can be equal to the previous bar. (see bottom charts)

IB on which hour?
You can play an IB, be it at 5.00 GMT, 4.00 GMT, 3.00 GMT or even 2.00 GMT as long as it is off the Open of the Day, 6.00 GMT. Peter's charts show this.

Where to put the buy and where to put the sell:
First rule: We buy on a break of an IB if price is above the daily open and sell if it’s below.
Where to put the buy and sell has no where been discussed in great detail. Put the buy/sell 1 pip outside the IB range and remember to add the spread.
Example: IB range is high @ 1.5500 and low @ 1.5400. Buystop: 1.5501 + spread, SL 1.5399, BE 1.5603 + spread. Sellstop: 1.5399, SL 1.5501 + spread, BE 1.5297. (chart to follow)
Should we not take the high/low of bar prior to IB for our breakout range?
This is not by PC’s rules, if you feel that this is what suits you, then go ahead.

What is the TP? Or the FTT (Free Trade Target)
We are looking to exit half of our position at 1:1, which means that once you’re up the amount of pips which equals the amount of pips you’re risking (IB-range + 2 (1 up and 1 down for the breakout) + spread) then you close half you position. This is your FTT (Free Trade Target) If after this price comes back and takes you out, you haven’t lost anything. Do not move the SL on the remaining 1/2.


Variations: close 2/3 after 1:1 this will bank some profits. Or you could close 2/3 after gaining half the risked pips, this will give a free ride sooner, but if you price runs away in positive direction then this will win you less but when you have a doubt about a DIBS or see that there are technical levels that are too close then this may be the approach. PC closes half after 1:1 and I suggest you do it too.
There are different ways to trail the stop on the winning remainder. I would move my stop to new support/resistance areas but there are other ways to do it.

What if an IB has it’s high above the daily open and it’s low below the daily open?
Then you take the break that occurs, if it breaks to the downside then sell and vice versa.

2, 3 or more IB’s in a row – which one to take?
I would take the first one which is the largest just to be on the sure side.

How to avoid losses?
If you look to ask this question then you’ll have to start all over again! Read PC’s posts.

Peter Crowns:
"buying breakouts of inside hourly bars if the prices are "up" on the day, and selling downside breakouts of inside hourly bars if the prices are "down" on the day.
These types of trades are simple, low-risk and potentially high reward. The only problem is you do have to be conscious when they happen so you can take the trade!"

"What I like about these simple trades is the tendency to be able to cover your risk quickly by exiting half of your position at 1:1, allowing you to hold the remaining position with the initial stop (the other side of the inside bar) as a virtual "free trade".

"I've found 'elegantly simple' in trading is best."

"Simple works in the markets, because they are very simple.
Most traders complicate things incredibly. Because their minds probably can't handle the truth yet that the markets basically feed where the orders are."

"Win rate is not the most important factor in finding a good trading method. Profit potential/risk is."

"the best trades for us are the ones that don't give you ANY retracement after the breakout"

"The trade is simple and perverse at the same time. It also gives some of the best risk/reward trades possible and always ensures that you are with the daily trend. If you are also in tune with the weekly and monthly trends is when it gets exciting!"

The DIBS method is one of the surest "unknown" methods available for making money in Forex. I wish I had invented it.
Having traded the concept personally for more than 15 years, I know how good and also how irritating it can be. As you mentioned, trading during the active hours is key to the best trades. It is hard to beat the combination of low risk and high probability. Yet it stays in obscurity, which is the way of all good methods."
Attached Images http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1210910438 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1210910449 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1213859405 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1213866457
Attached Files http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/zip.gif Peter Crowns.zip (479.0 KB, 167 views)
1) I have Traded in some form contiguously for the past 30 years or so.

2) In the Early Days, My Methods had flaws and therefore I searched for "Proven" methods.

3) After having Added, Subtracted, Ignored & Tweaked each of these methods, to the point of being unrecognizeble, I started to appreciate... "I Am Better Than These Guys!"

So I designed my own System, complete with Trade Avoidance Filters. Called it "Sisters" A compilaton of the best indicators I knew. If they were All in Alignement, How could I Lose?
These became the bane of the "System" because they would keep me out of 'Home Run Trades'. I hade previously read of the danger of filters but that was for those Other Guys that didn't have as high a goal as I did. Lord Have Mercy on them...


Listen Traders...
I understand that PC Taught How To Fish & then refused to cast your lines/nets. {Sarcasim Starts} What a Jerk, You wanted this to be Easy.{Sarcasim Ends}


It Is What It Is.

Simple, Not Always In Play, And requires a Level MM Head to abscond with the jewel.

It seems to me that "The Grail Hunters" have arrived thinking all they have to do is ADD THE RIGHT FILTER.

Bears#it.
If you think this Method Needs Mods, YOU don't understand it!

It's not about PA {Price Action}
But It's about PA {People Action}

Prices don't move People {that matter in this business},
People {that matter in this business} Move Prices.

This is an Open Invitation to Ride The Train...
Go Here AND Read Every Single Post before asking for "Clarification" Please.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86766


DIBS: From The Inside Out
Sorry Jim. couldn't resist.
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:56am Jul 2, 2008 12:35am | Edited at 11:56am
Hallo BeMac

When I first read Peter's posts, I decided to make an outline of his rules. It turned out very short. There's no point in repeating them, cause we've all read his posts. Right? I, being a simple guy, warmed up to DIBS easily and trading it in the simplest manner has been working very well.

As far as filtering the bad trades? None of the trades are bad; That's the glory. By taking the best setups, stopped trades cost little. The big losses are already filtered out by default. Some will stop out for a minimal amount, some will break even, some will win. Anyone that doesn't understand that, doesn't understand the method (or trading) at the simplest level.

There are a few more core components that don't seem to be understood by many.
a)..... Probing: This system calls for repetition. Tight stops that wouldn't work on other methods serve us well here. A good share of our trades reach break even quickly because of the momentum when price exceeds the IB. If we are on the wrong side, we know it quickly and can get out cheaply. Then we repeat. Between tight stops and a high rate of trades reaching break even, we can make many entries without breaking our accounts.

b)..... Holding trades: We are looking for the outliers, not So many pips per day. If we habitually close our trades at 100 or 200 pips, it follows that we'll never capture any move larger than that. Ever. If a trade is closed out for 200 pips, that's super. But don't close it there unless you have a reason. This would be a great place for a lesson on BeMac's 20% trailing stop, which I believe is great for DIBS.

c)..... Stacking: When a trade goes our way for days or weeks or longer, we should remain involved with the trade. By that, I mean adding on when we get another valid entry and trailing our stops in a way that will allow us to build our position without increasing our initial risk.

At the end of a year, our top few trades should account for a big part of our revenue, though we should certainly be gathering money along the way. This "Top Few Trades = Large Part Of Our Gains" concept doesn't apply to all methods and would (and should) even be a red flag for many systems.

So:
1 We probe
2 We hold
3 We add without increasing initial risk

Sure we'll stop out plenty. But they'll be small. It's rare to find anything that works in this business. When (or if) we do, the edge will be small. Account building will come from doing it the same way, over and over, month after month.

In the end we are setting ourselves up for limited losses and unlimited gains. I hope Phil McGrew doesn't mind me quoting him here...
"At some point you're going to catch the big one. When you do, it's imperative that you punish it for all it's worth."

Good Trading to All
Bill

BeMac: I've had a request for your stop idea so I'm posting it here in your words.

Ramble... Ramble...
Looks Bullish to me. Better have a closer look at this one.

Yeah. Could be a 100p move coming here and it has decent support 30p below.
Buy 1 .
SL = Previous Support.
TP/TS = Once the trade has aquired 50% of my Projected Move, I will risk 20% of the Maximum Profit of the Trade.

eg.
Up 50p = Risk 10p for 40p Prft.
Up 80p = Risk 16p for 64p Prft.
Up 100p = Risk 20p for 80p Prft.
Up 135p = Risk 27p for 108p Prft.
Up 200p = Risk 40p for 160p Prft.

Notice that, although my Pip Risk is Increasing;
I am still In The Trade Beyond My Original Expectations.
The Trade now has room to breath.
I may have caught a Durable Trend.
__________________

Molding this idea to DIBS is a simple thing. As our goal is to stay in the trade as long as possible, I'd be a little more liberal with my amount of profit risked until a certain point. When that point is reached, either a fixed trailing stop or Peter's suggestion of a MA based exit would work well.
Bemac and billflet,

First of all, thanks for taking the time and effort to give PCs advice the attention it deserves. If not for your efforts, I would have discounted PC DIBS method after reading the typical responses posted in the original "No Free Lunch" thread, but instead I have examined related threads many times recently and developed some simple back tests. So far, my test results have been outstanding and the EAs I've used don't even incorporate much in the way of Money Management. There are numerous breakout system threads here at FF, but what makes PCs approach so different is the small nuggets of real market insight such as the 06:00 GMT daily start time that add up to a bucket load of Gold.

Although I've been trading live for several years, I concider myself to be a novice trader. Now thanks to DIBS I can clearly see a bright future ahead for me in the retail FX market. I look foward to future momentum breakout exploitation with minimal drawdown.

billflet,

You've made some great points about how to get the most from this simple system. You've managed to decribe my current state of mind in regards to looking for Daily pips. I know once I've traded DIBS for a bit longer with small lot sizes I will gain the confidence and courage to let part of the trade ride once it's in profit and stack it up as the market continues to breakout in the original direction. Compounding is so powerfull, yet until now I haven't really understood how to do it without adding risk to my trades. Now that I'm only risking profits I've accumulated prior to each trade, I will be only risking what the market has given me without the worry of added risk.
Quoting billflet

Good Trading to All
Bill

BeMac: I've had a request for your stop idea so I'm posting it here in your words.

Ramble... Ramble...
Looks Bullish to me. Better have a closer look at this one.

Yeah. Could be a 100p move coming here and it has decent support 30p below.
Buy 1 .
SL = Previous Support.
TP/TS = Once the trade has aquired 50% of my Projected Move, I will risk 20% of the Maximum Profit of the Trade.

eg.
Up 50p = Risk 10p for 40p Prft.
Up 80p = Risk 16p for 64p Prft.
Up 100p = Risk 20p for 80p Prft.
Up 135p = Risk 27p for 108p Prft.
Up 200p = Risk 40p for 160p Prft.

Notice that, although my Pip Risk is Increasing;
I am still In The Trade Beyond My Original Expectations.
The Trade now has room to breath.
I may have caught a Durable Trend.
__________________

Molding this idea to DIBS is a simple thing. As our goal is to stay in the trade as long as possible, I'd be a little more liberal with my amount of profit risked until a certain point. When that point is reached, either a fixed trailing stop or Peter's suggestion of a MA based exit would work well.
Hey Bill, You already {hopefully} know how much I respect you. But, I have to say this, If I hadn't thought of that Trailer Idea above, I'd be All Over It because you posted it.

Yes, it Loses Profit BUT it Never Loses from Original Account Balance.

I Still use it on an Ongoing, Day to Day basis.
Can DIBS be turned into WIBS or MIBS? That would be sweet.
Just Trade It
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Can DIBS be turned into WIBS or MIBS? That would be sweet.
Thinking about the same thing...
Hi there,

There remains the possibility, that a perception exists, I {Bemac} have a vested intrest in Pumping This DIBS thing.

I confess: Yes I do.

Is that Intrest Monetary?
Only If I Follow DIBS!

A while ago, I asked Jarroo {through PM} to start His Own Thread because I foresaw the "PostCount on this going ballistic". I think he, by now, understands why. {May 15th to July 5th; >3 Thousand 6 Hundred Posts}

Please do not missunderstand me. I love the fact that "System DIBS" has "No Free" attached to it; but ; there's more:

When I initially posted "No Free..." it was intended to divert attention from +pips/-pips, to Market Recognition. PC did a yeoman job of that for me, I think everyone would agree on that . {PC; I will be forever gratefull. Not only for the intervention , invited as it was, but also for the loot you threw in my cargo bay.}

Why did the thread grab legs?
Simple. It's SIMPLE. {note to self; be simple.}

Is DIBS THE ONLY Simple method of Reading the Market?
Of Course Not. BUT, it did get you thinking about it.

By now you should have, at least, a concept of Preparation for "The Big Game" or "The New Business Day" or whatever you want to call it. But... Now you are looking for SETUPS. Not just Setups, but Better than Other Setups. BEFORE You Risk your Cargo.
That, in itself, {to me at least} taught some somethings.

And yet, there is still this lingering beliefe that any Good info is gonna cost me somewhere down the line.
Read My Siggy!
and then you can blame me.
Cancell Short DIBS in A Bull Market.

...So... I should call my Borker and ask him {cause i'm a newb @ this s#it & it is getting rather confusing to me} "Should I go Long OR Sell Short"?

Age Old I know but here's a way:

{psss... don't tell anyone else this 'cause i hope to patent & sell it }
Anything that has ..Periods should be a User Input.
My Defaults are 45; 100; & 200

(CALCULATION)
STTrendResrch1:= Close-LLV(Low,STPeriods);
STTrendResrch2:= HHV(High,STPeriods)-Close;
STTUp := STTrendResrch1 > STTrendResrch2;
STTDn := STTrendResrch2 > STTrendResrch1;

MTTrendResrch1:= Close-LLV(Low,MTPeriods);
MTTrendResrch2:= HHV(High,MTPeriods)-Close;
MTTUp := MTTrendResrch1 > MTTrendResrch2;
MTTDn := MTTrendResrch2 > MTTrendResrch1;

LTTrendResrch1:= Close-LLV(Low,LTPeriods);
LTTrendResrch2:= HHV(High,LTPeriods)-Close;
LTTUp := LTTrendResrch1 > LTTrendResrch2;
LTTDn := LTTrendResrch2 > LTTrendResrch1;

(OUTPUTS)
WeakTrendUP := STTUp AND NOT MTTUp AND NOT LTTUp ;
MedTrendUP := STTUp AND MTTUp AND NOT LTTUp ;
StrongTrendUP:= STTUp AND MTTUp AND LTTUp;

WeakTrendDN := STTDn AND NOT MTTDn AND NOT LTTDn ;
MedTrendDN := STTDn AND MTTDn AND NOT LTTDn ;
StrongTrendDN:= STTDn AND MTTDn AND LTTDn;

...
I know, {it's possibly imperfect but} I haven't had to Fix it yet...

Let me know what you "discover" {noitice i didn't say Think}
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:50am Jul 9, 2008 8:03am | Edited at 8:50am
Quoting Bemac
Cancell Short DIBS in A Bull Market.

...So... I should call my Borker and ask him {cause i'm a newb @ this s#it & it is getting rather confusing to me} "Should I go Long OR Sell Short"?

Age Old I know but here's a way:

{psss... don't tell anyone else this 'cause i hope to patent & sell it }
Anything that has ..Periods should be a User Input.
My Defaults are 45; 100; & 200

(CALCULATION)
STTrendResrch1:= Close-LLV(Low,STPeriods);
STTrendResrch2:= HHV(High,STPeriods)-Close;
STTUp := STTrendResrch1 > STTrendResrch2;
STTDn := STTrendResrch2 > STTrendResrch1;

MTTrendResrch1:= Close-LLV(Low,MTPeriods);
MTTrendResrch2:= HHV(High,MTPeriods)-Close;
MTTUp := MTTrendResrch1 > MTTrendResrch2;
MTTDn := MTTrendResrch2 > MTTrendResrch1;

LTTrendResrch1:= Close-LLV(Low,LTPeriods);
LTTrendResrch2:= HHV(High,LTPeriods)-Close;
LTTUp := LTTrendResrch1 > LTTrendResrch2;
LTTDn := LTTrendResrch2 > LTTrendResrch1;

(OUTPUTS)
WeakTrendUP := STTUp AND NOT MTTUp AND NOT LTTUp ;
MedTrendUP := STTUp AND MTTUp AND NOT LTTUp ;
StrongTrendUP:= STTUp AND MTTUp AND LTTUp;

WeakTrendDN := STTDn AND NOT MTTDn AND NOT LTTDn ;
MedTrendDN := STTDn AND MTTDn AND NOT LTTDn ;
StrongTrendDN:= STTDn AND MTTDn AND LTTDn;

...
I know, {it's possibly imperfect but} I haven't had to Fix it yet...

Let me know what you "discover" {noitice i didn't say Think}
Bemac,
This may come in handy for something I am working on in MQ4
Could you further explain some things?
What are HHV, LLV, STPeriods, MTPeriods, LTPeriods,
ST,MT, and LTPeriods I am guessing they have something to do with timeframes, but the rest is unknown to me.
Thanks
Rusty

on edit: ok I saw an explaination in the DIBS thread, and it makes sense now. Was it an accurate explaniation?
Quoting Bemac
Hi there,

There remains the possibility, that a perception exists, I {Bemac} have a vested intrest in Pumping This DIBS thing.

I confess: Yes I do.

Is that Intrest Monetary?
Only If I Follow DIBS!

A while ago, I asked Jarroo {through PM} to start His Own Thread because I foresaw the "PostCount on this going ballistic". I think he, by now, understands why. {May 15th to July 5th; >3 Thousand 6 Hundred Posts}

Please do not missunderstand me. I love the fact that "System DIBS" has "No Free" attached to it; but ; there's more:

When I initially posted "No Free..." it was intended to divert attention from +pips/-pips, to Market Recognition. PC did a yeoman job of that for me, I think everyone would agree on that . {PC; I will be forever gratefull. Not only for the intervention , invited as it was, but also for the loot you threw in my cargo bay.}

Why did the thread grab legs?
Simple. It's SIMPLE. {note to self; be simple.}

Is DIBS THE ONLY Simple method of Reading the Market?
Of Course Not. BUT, it did get you thinking about it.

By now you should have, at least, a concept of Preparation for "The Big Game" or "The New Business Day" or whatever you want to call it. But... Now you are looking for SETUPS. Not just Setups, but Better than Other Setups. BEFORE You Risk your Cargo.
That, in itself, {to me at least} taught some somethings.

And yet, there is still this lingering beliefe that any Good info is gonna cost me somewhere down the line.
Read My Siggy!
and then you can blame me.
I have to say, it's because of this thread pointing out DIBs (which I've now been trading with lately) that made me go and look up a couple other old and simple systems that are now paying handsome dividends. Now to lash myself for ever stopping using them.
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
Quoting The Jedi
I have to say, it's because of this thread pointing out DIBs (which I've now been trading with lately) that made me go and look up a couple other old and simple systems that are now paying handsome dividends. Now to lash myself for ever stopping using them.

Without too much detail what are these systems? I am all for keeping it simple.

Rusty
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=26205

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=31790

They both work well for me, nice and simplistic. Alright, done with the hijack.
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
Quoting The Jedi
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=26205

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=31790

They both work well for me, nice and simplistic. Alright, done with the hijack.
Woahhh there big fella...
What Hijack?

The reason I started this thread was to get further {uncluttered} observations of this & similar methods.

Float yer boat oh Ye of the Force.
Quoting Bemac
Woahhh there big fella...
What Hijack?

The reason I started this thread was to get further {uncluttered} observations of this & similar methods.

Float yer boat oh Ye of the Force.
Thank you oh Poeseidon of this here thread! I just felt it natural to show my cards in this case, as these thread are definitely some threads that I feel should have some merit based on their simplicity and succinctiticity(?).
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
Here's a thought.
I was catching up on Jarroo's DIBS thread and read this....

extractor asked

... there is one point that I am still unclear about. " All inside bars are not equal". As has been mentioned, a simple inside bar on it's own is only the start. Ideally, I'd like to see a strong movement in one direction or the other, followed by an inside bar. ....

The Best way I can think of formulating an equation to calculate that would be a deravative of FX Volume.

It Counts Ticks, Not Contracts, and therefore, it seems to me {Methinks. in the language of Shakespear} A small intercept on FX Vol @ IB could be scripted to trigger on an acceptable Vol range to support a Signal. Could it not?
Quoting Bemac
Here's a thought.
I was catching up on Jarroo's DIBS thread and read this....
If you read all of the 3800+ posts about "cool ideas" regarding, filtering, trading 30M, exiting after 10 pips and wrapping it inside of 50 EAs and indicators, then you have by far more heart, will and nerves than I will ever have.
Trust price. Know yourself.
Quoting SeekingLight
If you read all of the 3800+ posts about "cool ideas" regarding, filtering, trading 30M, exiting after 10 pips and wrapping it inside of 50 EAs and indicators, then you have by far more heart, will and nerves than I will ever have.
Nahhhhh... It was easy for me. I Read it when the first post arrived and have only had to maintain since then. Admittedly, I do 'Scan & discard' some posts.

That's why J'R' puts all the pertinents in Post #1. He knew the thread would become too large to expect some to read it all. {their loss}

Good Point though.
Maybe we should start a thread like... This One...

At any rate, I'm going to think on it this weekend.

Hiv yers'l' a grrreat weekend.
Hi Bemac and congratulations on what I think you are doing.
I came late to the NFL thread and it had got past redemption. I was sorry to see Peter Crowns criticised so much.
So, now we can start with a clean fresh thread with the DIBS being pure. Excellent.

I didn't really understand your first post, English being my first language etc. I assume that it is 'forumese' and would crave your indulgence.

No PMs etc. Not without prior permission. Fine.

'Legs' does this allude to a long thread and one must read it from the start so that one understands, within a little, the concept?

OK, point one accepted and I will read the whole thread after I have written this so I can visit.

Gloms?

Thank you
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