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  • #41
  • Edited 12:36pm Mar 27, 2008 12:35pm | Edited 12:36pm
Quoting PeterCrowns
I take trading seriously.
Very many of us do as well. It may not be my livelyhood, but then again, I prefer to "hedge my bets" more so to speak, and rely on a brick-and-mortar business as much as trading to put food on the table. It doesn't mean that I take it any less seriously.
Why do you think I so "passionately" try and make my points, and ask questions that may not be liked by everyone...

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There are "secrets" of trading that are known to a few of us.
I never said I doubted that. Only that I'm yet to have one revealed to me that I or a load of other people didn't already know, thanks to whatever reason, as I'm not claiming to know everything either. I have picked a fair few brains though, and that is all I was trying to do here. Pick yours.
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These secrets buy our multi-million-dollar homes and lives of relative security.
, although, I'm still convinced it is more the execution, than the "secret" that puts you in this position.

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...or able to be exploited by many.
Again, this I think is key.

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They share what they are doing, because they know you won't be cavalier and shit on them or others like them.
If this was subtly directed at me, again, I apologise for the misunderstanding. I wasn't trying to shit on anybody or any method.
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And, contrary to some common beliefs, not all breakouts are the same.
I would never be so ballsy, or ignorant, as to think this. Also, why I said breakouts of "any" kind, in my earlier post.
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I know which breakouts have 2 - 5 times the edge of similar-looking breakouts others take, get frustrated with, and likely lose money trading if they don't have perfect skills.
Again, don't you think it's bringing this all back to the guy pulling the trigger, rather than the breakout itself?

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I'm happy to help people if they aren't idiots...
Damn... there's no helping me then!

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I definitely don't know everything; in fact I know very little for sure, and even less the longer I live. When I'm wrong, I correct myself quickly with no ego involvement. Hesitation has little reward in life and none in trading.In trading I stay wrong for only brief periods of time and encourage you to act the same.
That's exactly why you still have my vouch.

As for thinking posting here was a mistake. I hope you will reconsider that notion, as it is appreciated.

Now, after all that waffling, can you answer one of my initial questions for me?
Maybe if I rephrase it to: Do you see "a session" as a 24-hour period, is that why the 9-10hour window is significant to you?

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Have a good trading day.
-Peter-
And you too!
Carpe Divitiae
  • #42
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:00am Mar 28, 2008 3:00am
Quoting fsiltd
Do you see "a session" as a 24-hour period, is that why the 9-10hour window is significant to you?
-fsiltd-

Yes, since forex is definitely a 24 hour/day proposition with no let-up in sight, I consider the whole 24 hour period as a session.

The first 6 - 9 hours of the trading day are the most powerful, as the "money" trades then.

Some people prefer to trade the weaker part of the 24 hour session, after 1600 - 1700 Central Standard Time. And, there are those who like to tattoo themselves, put studs in their tongues and rings through their lips, and not buy the strongest markets or sell the weakest ones.

About the other things you mentioned above, everyone has their own opinion and definitely have the right to it. Thank goodness for free speech. It helps make the markets as deep as they are, due to different opinions.

When you want to buy, there is someone, for some reason--- willing to sell.

Here is a huge benefit we have going for us today:

On the trading floor, if you are successful and trade big size, the pit figures it out quickly. They make it difficult for you to get your full positions easily because they don't want to be "the rube" in the equation. Many who have no real clue down there act like "bottom feeders" in that they ape your positions. You come in there wanting to buy, so they buy, etc.

Since we now have the anonymity of trading platforms and can buy however much we want from 3 - 5 brokers simultaneously, you get filled immediately without difficulty.

Another huge edge over the pit. Isn't technology great?

-Peter-
  • #43
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:42am Mar 28, 2008 3:42am
I agree with Fsiltd in that it has more to do with the guy pulling the trigger than any system can provide. However there may be a few *signals* that most people don't see. Are these *signals* the only thing that makes one successful? I don't consider it to be a secret anymore than just believing in yourself is a secret to success. How many people have REAL goals (not just I want to be rich) and visualize themselves reaching those goals?
And why is bacon and eggs the best breakfast ever after a few pints the night before.
Just Trade It
  • #44
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:28am Mar 28, 2008 4:28am
Hey Peter, thanks for all the insights!
Quoting PeterCrowns
The first 6 - 9 hours of the trading day are the most powerful, as the "money" trades then.
That is interesting in itself. I've been focusing on the first 4-hours or so of a particular "geographic session". Like Asia, UK, US. Seems to move alot during this period, but I suppose, the times would overlap at some point. So definitely helpful, cheers
Also the old 10o'clock and 3o'clock turnarounds still hold true during NY sessions, even though the forex has a completely different market dynamic.
I suppose, that is what bemac stated in his first post, sort of...

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And, there are those who like to tattoo themselves, put studs in their tongues and rings through their lips, and not buy the strongest markets or sell the weakest ones.
Well, no comment on this one

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When you want to buy, there is someone, for some reason--- willing to sell.
This raises another question in my head altogether...
Is there the same kind of "specialists" in the CME pits, or specifically in currency pits rather, that HAVE to buy/sell when no one else will? Or do we just rely on the Interbank Market to act as the specialist, that essentially "make the market" when no one else will take the opposing side of your trade?
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Another huge edge over the pit. Isn't technology great?
Hell yeah! As I've said, I've never had the privilege of being in a pit myself. I've always just traded electronically. And suppose, I wouldn't have been here today if it wasn't for technology, so ditto on that one!
Carpe Divitiae
  • #45
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:32am Mar 28, 2008 4:32am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
And why is bacon and eggs the best breakfast ever after a few pints the night before.
Now this is an age old "secret", that only the fry-up gods know, and will never ever reveal to us mortals.
We are only to have faith, and believe in the power of the greasy bacon and egg's soothing and forgiving nature.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #46
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:13am Mar 28, 2008 9:13am
Peter,

thanks for posting your thoughts, they are indeed valuable.

I am kind of surprised to see you post an Oanda chart after 8 years in the pits; does that mean you've given up on futures in favor of spot? You mentioned using multiple brokers, would you mind if I asked which ones you prefer?

Thanks again for the thread.. and the coffee

Edit: I checked your profile and it says you prefer MB trading, sorry i wasted your time... but now something else got me curious... you mention using a Quant style, but then you also say that breakouts are your favorite strategies.. are breakouts considered quant these days? I thought you needed to use more greek letters for that..
  • #47
  • Mar 29, 2008 11:48pm Mar 29, 2008 11:48pm
Quoting pippero
Peter,

thanks for posting your thoughts, they are indeed valuable.

I am kind of surprised to see you post an Oanda chart after 8 years in the pits; does that mean you've given up on futures in favor of spot? You mentioned using multiple brokers, would you mind if I asked which ones you prefer?

Thanks again for the thread.. and the coffee

Edit: I checked your profile and it says you prefer MB trading, sorry i wasted your time... but now something else got me curious... you mention using a Quant style, but then you also say that breakouts are your favorite strategies.. are breakouts considered quant these days? I thought you needed to use more greek letters for that..

-pippero-

Thanks for the questions---

I actually like Oanda as a platform too, besides MB Trading and a few others in CH with very low (~.5 pips) spreads, but large capital requirements.

And yes, I have basically abandoned most of my CME contracts for Forex vehicles. Why not? They have tons of advantages that futures can't match. And just some of the problems. Size isn't one of them.

About breakouts--

Breakouts are terrific entries and usually simple in practice. And yes, quants are all over them at MIT, trying to figure out every little thing that you've probably already figured out.

I've found "elegantly simple" in trading is best.

And I am a simple quant.

PeterCrowns
  • #48
  • Apr 1, 2008 1:12am Apr 1, 2008 1:12am
I mentioned last week that the best trades are usually early in the day..., buying breakouts of inside hourly bars if the prices are "up" on the day, and selling downside breakouts of inside hourly bars if the prices are "down" on the day.

I just was able to take the most recent trades of this style in the Eur/Usd.

I thought the screenshot of the setup might be useful to some. These types of trades are simple, low-risk and potentially high reward. The only problem is you do have to be conscious when they happen so you can take the trade!

Have a good trading day.

-Peter-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap Inside Hourly Breakouts II.jpg Size: 217 KB
  • #49
  • Apr 2, 2008 11:05pm Apr 2, 2008 11:05pm
I was compelled to include this chart of today's action in the Eur/Usd.

For the record, I personally took every one of the indicated breakout trades-- sells and the buy today, obtaining at the bare minimum a 1:1 reward/risk ratio per trade, and on most of them, a 2:1 or 3:1 reward to risk ratio-- because of the speed and distance the market moved after the breakouts.

What I like about these simple trades is the tendency to be able to cover your risk quickly by exiting half of your position at 1:1, allowing you to hold the remaining position with the initial stop (the other side of the inside bar) as a virtual "free trade".

In a larger term time frame you can stack on quite a position over a period of a few weeks with these "free trades". If the market quickly goes against you, you have the stops already in place. Then it is back to work building these structures up again until a huge move which is your payoff move of thousands of pips on large size.

Thanks for all the kind comments and messages sent to me about this. You have all been very generous in allowing the posts about this style.

Have a great rest of the week.

-Peter-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap Inside Hourly Breakouts III.jpg Size: 399 KB
  • #50
  • Apr 2, 2008 11:10pm Apr 2, 2008 11:10pm
Quoting miketodd
good post
Glad you liked it Mike. Although, I agree with you and albeit was not My Post, would you be willing to expound on why you liked it?
  • #51
  • Apr 2, 2008 11:14pm Apr 2, 2008 11:14pm
I'm sure Mike has his reasons.

But the fact that I'm up over 150 pips since applying his technique, to say that I'm grateful is an understatement.

It's weird, it's almost as if Peter put some strings around my eyeballs and guided them to look at something that was there but wasn't paying attention to.

Well, that's probably a horrible mental picture and I apologize for that. But that's the best way I can think of conveying the message at the moment.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #52
  • Apr 2, 2008 11:22pm Apr 2, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting PeterCrowns
{skip}

Thanks for all the kind comments and messages sent to me about this. You have all been very generous in allowing the posts about this style.

Have a great rest of the week.

-Peter-
Hi Peter, I am enjoying your posts and hope to see you continue to do so. Please feel free to continue your Insightfull views of the Current MarketPlace.
After All, {seriously} the reason for starting the thread was to incite usefull discussion which you Obviously have done.

I am espescially happy that this topic is rooted in the "Freshman" Forum where it can {potentially} do the most good.

Kudos to Peter.
  • #53
  • Apr 3, 2008 11:55pm Apr 3, 2008 11:55pm
Quoting PeterCrowns

In a larger term time frame you can stack on quite a position over a period of a few weeks with these "free trades". If the market quickly goes against you, you have the stops already in place. Then it is back to work building these structures up again until a huge move which is your payoff move of thousands of pips on large size.
This has turned out to be a valuable thread.
I once read an article from a legitimate source that described a trader who used this tactic exclusively. He would stack these trades over and over, watching substantial profits evaporate when the trades collapsed. But... once or twice a year he'd build a huge trade that would really go the distance. One or two of these each year allowed him to live very well.

Thank you Bemac and Peter.
  • #54
  • Edited 11:54am Apr 4, 2008 12:40am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting pippero
Peter,

thanks for posting your thoughts, they are indeed valuable.

I am kind of surprised to see you post an Oanda chart after 8 years in the pits; does that mean you've given up on futures in favor of spot? You mentioned using multiple brokers, would you mind if I asked which ones you prefer?

Thanks again for the thread.. and the coffee

Edit: I checked your profile and it says you prefer MB trading, sorry i wasted your time... but now something else got me curious... you mention using a Quant style, but then you also say that breakouts are your favorite strategies.. are breakouts considered quant these days? I thought you needed to use more greek letters for that..
I wish all these MT4 traders would take note of the clear simplicity that Peter uses to trade.......you just don't need a forest of indicators to make good trade decisions.
Thank you Peter for your input here at Forex Factory, this has been a very valuable thread.Thanks again.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #55
  • Apr 4, 2008 1:30pm Apr 4, 2008 1:30pm
I'm glad some of you have found the recent posts useful.

Simple works in the markets, because they are very simple.

Most traders complicate things incredibly. Because their minds probably can't handle the truth yet that the markets basically feed where the orders are.

If there are plenty of individuals who will take some action when the market goes lower, the market will go lower. If there is an even larger number of individuals (and their money) who will take some action if the price is higher, the market will head up to facilitate trade.

All trading systems or methods are just some structure humans need to use to aggregate results. I use them too. But I use the simplest structures I can because those are the ones the markets can "understand" the best.

It's been a good week.

I love report days like today. Everybody gets a chance to vote in the market and most of them tend to be wrong long enough for tactical traders to extricate decent profits.

And - Jay Walker -, congratulations on the 150 pips of profits you gained from the technique. That is what cements this technique into your being, using it.

It sometimes seems TOO easy. That's ok. It helps make up for the times where you get small losses over and over and over again.

-PeterCrowns-
  • #56
  • Apr 10, 2008 2:30pm Apr 10, 2008 2:30pm
Great posts Peter. I tested your method on a few pairs, and they worked out pretty well, as long as one has the patience to sit and wait for the right opportunity. Your insights, along with a few select others on this website, are the only ones worth reading, over and over again, IMHO. I sincerely hope you stick around and keep this thread going.

From your experience, do you think it's prudent to place the SL on the other side of the outside bar (left side) instead of the inside bar, in order to decrease the frequency of getting stopped out? At the beginning of each trading session, when price is moving just under or above (sometimes both) yesterday's close, do you look for breakouts in one direction? both directions? or wait until the price has moved far enough to offer a clear direction?
Being the best loser that I can be.
  • #57
  • Edited Apr 11, 2008 9:25am Apr 10, 2008 3:01pm | Edited Apr 11, 2008 9:25am
Peter,

I am genuinely impressed with your posts. I am amazed by some of the people on this Forum. Peter, I read your posts and then see how I can apply it to my trading/ investing. All I can say is keep up the good work and a great job!
  • #58
  • Apr 11, 2008 12:18pm Apr 11, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting Freestyler
Great posts Peter. I tested your method on a few pairs, and they worked out pretty well, as long as one has the patience to sit and wait for the right opportunity. Your insights, along with a few select others on this website, are the only ones worth reading, over and over again, IMHO. I sincerely hope you stick around and keep this thread going.

From your experience, do you think it's prudent to place the SL on the other side of the outside bar (left side) instead of the inside bar, in order to decrease the frequency of getting stopped out? At the beginning of each trading session, when price is moving just under or above (sometimes both) yesterday's close, do you look for breakouts in one direction? both directions? or wait until the price has moved far enough to offer a clear direction?
-Freestyler-

Nice to hear from you..., and your first post too!!! Welcome aboard.

Concerning the stops for the inside bar breakouts-- you can do either of the possibilities you mentioned. They will both work. The tradeoff with having greater stop distance is the less potential profit/risk. The only benefit is a higher win rate.

Win rate is not the most important factor in finding a good trading method. Profit potential/risk is.

The psychologically hardest one to trade is the one I use. I use the other extreme of the inside bar for my stop point.

The risk is as low as it is going to be and the best trades for us are the ones that don't give you ANY retracement after the breakout. Yes, you get stopped out a bit more than if you had the stop a bit farther away. We are trading to risk as little as possible for the greatest amount of potential gain.

Imagine the overall success rate of someone taking the opposite side of these breakout trades and only exiting when we exit. They would be trading with unlimited potential risk and only could look forward to very limited potential profits.

Apply the above thought structure to any system you can analyse and see which system would be the most dangerous to fade. That is the system you wish to trade.

The method we have been discussing is one of these extremely "dangerous-to-fade" systems.

For this question:
At the beginning of each trading session, when price is moving just under or above (sometimes both) yesterday's close, do you look for breakouts in one direction? both directions?

Yes, at this point I am looking to buy above an inside hourly bar where the breakout point is above yesterday's close (and today's open) or sell below the low of an hourly inside bar below the open of today.

These trades have the MOST potential for the day. Think TREND DAY!

Thanks for the questions. I'm glad I could answer them.

- PeterCrowns -
  • #59
  • Apr 11, 2008 12:23pm Apr 11, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting forextrader0
Peter,

I am genuinely impressed with your posts. I am amazed by some of the people on this Forum. Peter, I read your posts and then see how I can apply it to my trading/ investing. All I can say is keep up the good work and a great job!
- forextrader0 -

Thanks for the nice words.

The markets have been quite profitable this week using this method, but you really had to be on your game.

- PeterCrowns -
  • #60
  • Apr 13, 2008 8:09pm Apr 13, 2008 8:09pm
Hey folks,

I know it sounds conceited but I just put in my vote to Rate This thread.

I don't care who Started it {i do know who tho} but it grew it's own legs.
Mission accomplished.{Period}

I actually tried changing the name of the thread to something more appropriate but then thought, 'why do that? it has an audience.'

I've said it before & i'll say it again...
"A Good Info Source Is Hard To Find."
{my wife says it differently. SHE says... A 'Hard' Man is 'Good' to Find.
We've been married for some time now AND just got back from our latest 5 star hotel weekender.
but i digress }

{i am confident that my vote for PC (not Politically Corr..)to allow him to post in "All" forums was not a mistake}

AND... btw. Peter... If you are listening... I {again} would like to say "Thank You. Because I didn't get that Play until you explained it."


Bemac Exits Stage Left, Running all the way...
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