Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Where you been? I take a break from counting and now I don't see any updates ever!

GBPUSD.

I am still holding on to this triangle. a 3 wave structure has formed downward and the end consolidating on the downward support TL of the proposed triangle.

I am still looking for price to go lower than 1.9545 which is the minimum for a FLAT B wave.

So this proposed Triangle lower degree b should have its "e" wave extend lower than 1.9545.

Therefore, this move up I would think is a wave "b" inside a 3 wave structure wave "e". retracement level is at the maximum 80% to qualify as a zigzag.... then a PLUNGE.

if the retrace up should exceed 80%, then I would have to re think my wave count.

EG

update:

001 I would consider 1.9752 as TP

Hi Adrian, also had a break.
here how i see the pair usd/chf
two variants: brown - sell
red - buy

Looks like I am stuck with my trades right now. Positions are equally hedged.

I was expecting price to come down still. Although the maximum retrace I was looking at of 80% @ 1.9834 has not been reached yet...... current max of 1.9806 is quite near.

Looking or using the FIB Extention tool though seems to indicate an Impulsive move has been made instead of a corrective set of waves as Price has even ezxceeded the FE 425. instead of staying within or below FE 161.8

EG

update
001 2133 PHI
next target is 1.9903..... by then I will look for opportunity to exit 1/2 of my long position. I am thinking that that could be the possible end of wave 1 up.

Alternative move will be ( if price starts to come down again to 1.9500 ) is to just allow all trades run and let the long trades in a drawdown while the short trades to run in profit. Timing will be very important in this case.

002 2157 PHI
m15 Resistance @ 1.9901 S1 @ 1.9707 S2 @ 1.9651

my thoughts on this would be for price to come down to either of these 2 Support levels on the 15min charts for the wave 4 down. then followed by a move up towards 1.9834.

this means that the whole move from 1.9600 going up to 1.9806 is just the "A" leg of a 3 wave structured "B" of the wave "e" down for the triangle which is expected to make a throwover to the downside of the triangle to qualify for the over all FLAT wave "b"

so first a move down towards 1.9707 or 1.9651 followed by a move up towards 1.9834 at most
then followed by the new Plunge towards 1.9545 or lower.

003 2234 PHI
new chart added watch out. looks like it will come down near the 2 levels I mentioned earlier. those were based on other systems. while this is based on EW.

004 2347 PHI
note 15min 100 sma is at 1.9669.... based on a different system, this could provide a strong support well ahead of the initial 2nd target of 1.9651

I still think price will bounce from 1.9669 orn 1.9651 level to go up to 1.9834 max

005 0003 PHI 041708
added a chart outlining possible wave count before it happens. further fall than 1.9651 will mean my assumptions and count are wrong about price bouncing from the low of 1.9651 max to bounce toward 1.9834

006 0155 PHI
Alternative Count on GBPUSD
this anticipates a final move down now towards 1.9545.to finish wave "ce" of the smaller degree "b" of a higher degree B wave. This means that with this current move down, price will continue to go lower than 1.9651 and not bounce from this level. but continue to go down.

Target with this count is at 1.9522 which is FE 100 of a 3 wave structured wave "ce"

007 0450 PHI
Price retracing UP. I would not worry toomuch about this. Check 15min chart and you will see that this is just a retracement (IMHO). Then price will continue to go down.

And it looks like it will continue to lower levels and will most likely exhibit a throw under for the Triangle or wedge as others would call it prior to reversing and return to the Bull trend in the Medium Term.

008 0512 PHI
For those watching this notes. Remember that I have trades in opposite directions and are equally hedged. I was and am still looking for a point to unhedge.

Yes, I have earlier stated above that price seems to be going down and that this move up is just a retracement. Be warned that now I have just checked my RSI based EW tracking and the moves/waves on the 15min chart have been showing 335 3 wave structures from 2.0049 .

Current retrace IMHO could go up to 1.9750 or 1.9764 50 and 61.8% retrace of the move down from 1.9807

15min stochs is awaiting a cross back signal at overbought area while the 30min stochs is still heading up.

a 3 wave structure has been formed from 1.9806 down to 1.9690, then a move up right now which I think would end on the 50-61.8% retrace up.

To be followed by a 5 wave structure wave "c" DOWN.

Hello El grande,

can you help me to fix this hegde (look the attached file) :

i have long wiht 6% of my account at 2.0317 and 2 shrot positions with 5%

i would like to add to the shorts at 1.9835 , maybe new 6% for 100-150 pips

what do you think

best regards

Nasko- the FX Predator

El grande,
i put some shorts to fill the difference among the shorts and the long

look at the attachment - updated balance

I may seem to have been online based on the status you saw yesterday. But the truth is, I actually left my computer running and the FF webpage open so it recorded I was online.

Sorry about that fxpredator. I was not able to help you yesterday.

I was just monitoring price thru my mobile as I was visiting clients yesterday.

Anyway...... I have finally UNHEDGED my position for +4. It was almost 240 pip GAP. 1 trade hit my shallow TP of +10 which I forgot to adjust before I went to rest last night while the other I manually closed at -6.

So Finally left with my old short trade and now with a new short trade of 50% of the old one.

Entered @ 1.9909 SHORT. Counted 5 waves up 1.9600-1.9923 (323 pips)
TP for now is 1.9723 which is the 61.8% retracement.

That is if we consider this last move up as wave 1 of a "c" wave up.

This retracement may not be enough to save or unhedge my old SHORT (from 1.9678) at profit nor at breakeven. But , let us see what can be done about it.

I can keep nursing it while price completes this wave "c" Up and wait for price to come down again ( which could really run into a huge drawdown, but at least I will not register any loss which eventually I would still have to work hard to recover ).

or I can take that loss when price hits 61.8% retracement and exit the old short trade for a loss of 55 pips which may be offset by the potential profit to be earned by new short trade which is 50% the size of the old one

hhhmmm.... that would be equivalent to earning an equivalent of 90 pips then less the 55 pips still in the drawdown, Still a NET 35 pips potential profit.

2 possible scenarios then.....


However, if this 5 wave up is the whole wave "c" up already..... then THIS would be SWEET as it would mean I can let both trades ride and RUN ALL THE WAY DOWN and look forward to both trades turning in to profit.

EG

PS. Looks like Adrian's wave B count was correct where B was an abc where "c" was an ending diagonal triangle which eneded at 1.9600

UPDATES

001 0641 PHI
Still possible for 1.9980 for a final wave 5 on another system for tracking waves. But I will hold on to my short trades for now.

worst case scenario, i will let them run even on a continuous drawdown, then re-assess my counts if it would be worth to find an opportunity to trade LONG or wait for signs of price coming down then either just wait for previous short to recover or put in a smaller short trade than the last one made.

HEY HEY HEY!
How is everybody around here these days?

Please do comment on the following count, im looking for alternative scenarios on 30-60 mins for guppy.

Thank you

hi EG. i'm glad you have started to post again

this could start a great correction? corect me if i'm wrong.

http://i30.tinypic.com/2m30kk5.jpg

Here's where we are going with GBP. we have a contracting triangle formation in progress. This is pretty much set in stone as these are unbelievably reliable!

Then down again from the target area. Looks like a great long on Sunday night into Monday.

Here's the chart..

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/913/gbphb2.th.jpg

This a great Long opportunity, don't miss out. Use the camarilla lines Mq4 to jump in on a break of the H3 line.

Back soon.

Johan

GBPUSD

I will be watching the Stochastics to keep things as simple as possible.

EG

001 1940 PHI
if the move down was a wc2, it looks like it was just the 5 wave structure of a potential "a" of a Zigzag ABC for wc2.

retracements are shown as ticked levels. note that this are suggested levels that price may turn around and head back down to make a 3 wave structured suggested Zigzag ABC which could be a C=A.

002 2003 PHI
Looking at Stochastics, the ups and downs may represent the EW counts.
the extended wa3 maybe that series of downward humps then followed by a rally which may be the wa4 up

we may still be seeing a move down lower than the last low to finish off a wa5. I see the move down from 2.0024 as part of wave c2 down whihc normally will end at the 61.8% retracement @ 1.9761

from a different perspective, it may also be possible that wa leg in 5 wave structure may be finished @ 1.9810 and the move up is the "b" structure of wave 2

just throwing several options out. as for me, I am on my charts watching.

have been having broadband connection problems since last friday.

GBPUSD

Reading the charts below may seem very confusing due to the numerous lines. But try scaling in and scaling out of the different TFs and check the FIB retracements and Extentions.

You will see what I see.

EG

GBPUSD Alternative count

GBPUSD went back down to meet the 61.8% retrace ( actual is 66%)

That would have been a very nice level to go LONG realy heavy and it would have been very profitable.

I personally have 3 trades starting at the 59% retrace but took them out at levels which just gave very little profits as it went up . It would have been better had I been watching my trades.

Anyway, Am looking for opportunities to put in new long trades as price goes down for a retrace.

Long term P is at 2.0659 for a C=A in a B wave on the Daily chart

EG

this is my view on M5. we are in C wave. target 1.9880 area

Congratulations Pipchaser. The rally that followed that 161.8% FIB Extention was very profitable.

the retrace brought up a new opportunity to set Long trades.

EG

Looks like we tried longing GU with it now returning to it's bottoms.

Might still be a c-wave in a flat correction.

I'm looking at the weekly pivot to long. If it crosses 1.9819 then we're not impulsive anymore

That Long on the Cable was short lived. But if one was not greedy and was watching the charts on the lower time frames, then one would now that

1. there was a nice profit to take by exiting or moving the SL to a profit level.

2. and by counting waves in the lower TF also will let one know a count is invalidated for the medium term.

Since the earlier count on the lower time frame was invalidated, then moving up to higher time frames would should that it is possible that wave 2 inside the wave C up of the DAILY chart has expanded into a FLAT corrective wave which is developing the wave c down of the wave 2 of the C up.

Looking at 1.9720 as potential end to this wC2c.

EG

Thanks a lot EG. I hope you enjoyed those pips as well.

Good luck