100 Trades Analysis

http://img111.imageshack.us/img111/1831/dailyah8.jpg
Trade #71
USDJPY
Stopped @ 120.12
Net pips: 128 pips
R: 2.06

New trades

Trade # 79
USDCAD
percent risk: 2%

Trade #80
AUDUSD
percent risk: 2%

20 trades to go...I will continue on with candlestick..except with a little improvement from what i see..

Ok since I am on my last 20 trades, I'm just going to do something a little bit different. Posting my oanda screenshots has been a pain in the ass for me. So I'm going to go back to just typing it out.

Trade #81
LONG
EUROUSD
risk: 1%
s/L: 1.2859

I feel that last friday showed that the bulls had a very strong support with the piercing candle. So I am risking 1% since I want to wait for futher upside..

Trade #78
NZDUSD
Stopped @ 0.6926
Net pips: 30 pips
R: 0.75

Right now I have reached the sections about the kagi, renko and the 3 line break charts in nison's second book. These are interesting ways of looking into the general trend of the market. I'm definitely going to implement these. I always have problems in determining support/resistance. That's why I use pivots to make it easier. I feel that if i use any of the three methods above on the weekly, that would definitely help me a lot in drawing general trendline and s/r. Buy dips and sell rallies is really my proposed method as of now

well, I've decided to go back to posting images. Except, new trades and s/l updates are all in the same pic. simple..

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/1296/dailywu8.jpg

Trade #82
USDCHF
percent risk: 2%

Trade #83
USDJPY
percent risk: 2%

Trade #80
AUDUSD
Stopped @ 0.7825
Net pips: -26 pips
R: -0.74

maaan...it seems like my first attempt at candlestick trading is not easy..

USDCHF
http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/1029/dailyox0.jpg

So I'm showing people out there how I come up with these craaaazy trades. So first I draw some basic trendlines on the weekly. We see here that USDCHF is reaching 2 potential resistance trendlines.

http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/5776/whp0.jpg

This is the USDCHF daily. So we see a high wave and hang man at the near resistance. So what I read is that hang mans is a cautionary trend weakness/reversal. two indecision candles could be trouble righ???. So I shorted this pair today..the end

comments and suggestions welcome..

damn it..USDCAD got stopped out from this oil/gold business..I'm looking for another short pattern to emerge.

and USDJPY is most likely stopped out. Apparently it has a little bit of steam left. So I'm looking for short patterns as well.

EUROUSD and USDCHF still intact. What is wrong with these pairs. the big players are confused as hell as to what to do here...

Alright some updates

Trade #79
USDCAD
Stopped @ 1.1726
Net pips: -24 pips
R: -0.63

Trade #83
USDJPY
Stopped @ 120.71
Net pips: -27 pips
R: -1.00

http://img242.imageshack.us/img242/378/dailytq3.jpg

Trade #84
USDCHF
percent risk: 1%

Trade #85
GBPUSD
percent risk: 2%

Trade #86
USDCAD
percent risk: 1%

Trade #87
AUDUSD
percent risk: 2%

Rationale:
I'm adding my position on the USDCHF. Reasons are:
1. few days of indecision (hang man, high waves)
2. at a monthly R2
3. today ended in a doji (ooooh) and the very long shadow tells me that the bears are winding it up yo!

GBPUSD trade is a tricky one. I see two equal days of opposite color. Except today the upper shadow tested a known resistance and was rejected. The price seems to reject the monthly pivot. So we'll see

USDCAD is right at a strong resistance and monthly AND weekly R1. The fact is, i think today's bull candle is just what it is bull! the bears would most like take the pair lower since the bulls got nowhere to go. But since I have no candlestick formation to prove this, i'm risking only 1%. Maybe i'll add once I see a bearish day.

AUDUSD seems to be in a trading range. The star on 1/15 is like a thrust, and I see a lower resistance (tp) at the open window around 0.7787. Plus today's candle completed somewhat in a evening star, so I risk 2%

Well so far, I've had consistent losers than winners!

And at the same time, I was reading Greg Morris' book 'Japanese Candlestick Charting Explained', at the end where he interviewed a successful japanese trader. I have taken a lot of good insights from that interview.

So this morning I looked at my account, and it has reached 10% drawdown since the beginning of the month. So I thought I need to take a breather and reassess my methods of candlestick analysis. It's hard to make a transition from mechanical trading to more 'subjective' trading. I think I need to actually write down the specifics of my strategy. As of right now, I really just have a vague idea of what to do: weekly setup and daily trigger. But what sort of setups or triggers is really what I need to focus on.

You are right, it is very hard to make the transition and it requires lots of patience and determination.

However, you sound very determined about candlesticks and you sound like you like what you are studying, which is the most important thing.

About the hangman above, I think you always want to wait for some bearish confirmation when trading a reversal pattern.

The tough thing about candlesticks, or at least that's what I find very hard, is to be patient and wait for confirmation. I often tend to anticipate the signal to get some sort of edge, but most of the times I am punished by the market.

If you look at the daily chart above, in september you had a white hanging man that peaked at around 1.2625. Once the pattern was confirmed, the market went south nicely.

The question you may wanna ask yourself when taking those trades is: where would those who are currenly long decide to close their positions?

Do you really think that those who are long now would just give up like that?

I always ask myself: where is the "panic" level? At what point do the longs start to get in trouble or second-guess their position?

Trade #85
GBPUSD
Stopped @ 1.9677
Net pips: -69 pips
R: -1.00

Trade # 87
AUDUSD
Stopped @ 0.7860
Net pips: -33 pips
R: -0.82

And updates

http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/7585/dailyed1.jpg

You are absolutely right about waiting for confirmation. Steve, Greg, and everythign that I've read have urged traders who trade off candlesticks to consider the whole picture AND wait for confirmation. I don't know why I keep going against this useful advice.

Either way, I've decided to take the rest of the week off trading. I believe I am thinking waaay too much when I do my analysis. Overthinking is quite counterproductive in trading I must say. It leads to fear and hope..

So I will take these few days off and write down some rigid rules for my strategy. I understand there will always be subjective thought involved in price action, but I need some clear guidelines on how to trade it so that I can at least follow a plan when I find myself undecided. Basically I want myself saying 'yes' or 'no' instead of 'maybe' when I finish my analysis.

ps. I will still keep my trades updated....and i'll come back to do my next 20 trades (61-80) some time later.

whole line of losing trades to record here. USDCHF just made me laugh when I saw it ended in another indecision. WTF are these fools waiting for??!?!?

Trade #81
EUROUSD
Stopped @ 1.2904
Net pips: -20 pips
R: -0.30

Trade #82
USDCHF
Stopped @ 1.2526
Net pips: -37 pips
R: -1.00

Trade #84
USDCHF
Stopped @ 1.2526
Net pips: -43 pips
R: -1.00

Trade #86
USDCAD
Stopped @ 1.1762
Net pips: -6 pips
R: -0.12

Anyways, on the upside, I have developed a concise trading plan to trade next week. This is purely based on candles and s/r. It does implement TP and I feel because of that it is very conservative system.

Well, here is the 20 trades (61-80) results

Total trades 20
Net pips -78
Average R -0.1334
Average days 2.25
% Win 35%
Average pips won 66 pips
Average pips loss 41 pips

Net pips thus far (trades 1-80) 1110 pips

This was my first attempt to trade off candlesticks. Not bad, but we do have a net loss. But I noticed that my average win over those 7 trades is bigger than the average loss over 13 losses. So I guess if I can manage to be more effective, I can definitely come out positive.

I have prepared several rules that I will trade in the next week to finish off this thread and the rest of my trading endeavor. The rules pretty much stem from my trading experience in the past that I find suitable for me.

1. I will only trade USDJPY and GBPUSD right now. This is because I wanted to focus on improving my techniques until I can bring consistent results month to month

2. The trading style involves adding positions. I have always championed this idea but never actually practiced it. So I will do this time. So trading only 2 pairs will protect me against running out of margin too quickly

3. my s/r will be determined from the monthly and weekly s/r levels.

4. My entry, exit and position adding will be done on the daily time frame. I look for a strong rejection or breakout of these s/r to initiate or add positions.

5. I will use these s/r for my s/l. When prices move, it will tell me which of these s/r are significant. So I will move my s/l accordingly

Some guidelines to help me along the way:

1. Wait for confirmation prior to entries

2. add on strong price movements past s/r

3. place or move s/l to s/r that has been tested by price multiple times. I will place 5 pips away from these s/r instead of just 1 pip as I have done previously

4. Assure that positions added do not diminish gains made on the initial entry. So basically whenever I enter I trade, it's automatic 2% risk (it would be a long time before I would say I'm good enough to recognize high probable trades to risk larger than 2%). Then whenever I add in positions, I would add 1%.

This is a basically swing strategy that if a good trend develops, I would probably hold on for couple of weeks.

Alright, I'll see you guys next week. We will probably will see some breakout on the majors since most pairs are reaching their all time highs or lows or have been trading within tight range.
peace

New trade

http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/8425/daily6oy.jpg

Trade #88
USDJPY
percent risk: 2%

let's get it oooon

One of the new things that I'm trying to implement is looking into the behavior of the price action once I enter in a position. I'm no longer going to move my s/l everyday to capture profits like before. Now I will focus on the action of the candles specifically the shadows. The shadows will tell me which level of the price is significant. This is definitely going to be an art in motion as I gauge my trades based on the price action analysis

My USDJPY trade still intact. Seems like the bears did try to stir something but couldn't hold out. I will close this trade if I see a strong rejection near 121.85-121.90

I actually stayed home from work today cause of fever. So I watched the chart from time to time. I don't think I can ever make it as a day trader. It's quite intense...

Trade #88
USDJPY
Stopped @ 121.00
Net pips: -67 pips
R: -1.00

yiiikes...new trades. I see on the daily that GBPUSD and USDJPY rejected a resistance. We'll see how this rejection plays out

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/5765/daily1ud.jpg

Trade #89
GBPUSD
risk: 2%

Trade #90
USDJPY
risk: 2%

Trade #90
USDJPY
Stopped @ 121.65
Net pips: -65 pips
R: 1.00

Well the inevitable thing happened today. My USDJPY got stopped out below my 121.65 s/l. I checked on Oanda and the highest price they had was 121.64. Oh well

So I'm still bearish on the USDJPY since my s/l was never actually triggered.

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/114/dailyqe4.jpg

Trade #91
USDJPY
risk: 2%

I have added a 1% position to the GBPUSD because it had moved below resistance of 1.9700. And the long upper shadow confirms a strong bearish support from the hourly. So I moved my s/l of my previous position to 1.9750