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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #3,061
  • Apr 18, 2008 4:09pm Apr 18, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting cyborg
Hi Friends,

please, would it be possible to give short and simple explanation how to use the 50% Fibonacci as posted at the beginning of this thread?

I am relative new to this stuff and would need some help here.

thanks a lot

Cyborg
Just read the thread. It is explained couple of times here. One of them was not long ago about fibs. So don't be lazy and do some reading. You have a whole weekend for it. Since your new, I would recommend reading the whole thread and try to understand everything in depth.
  • #3,062
  • Apr 18, 2008 4:27pm Apr 18, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting kaunasny
Just read the thread. It is explained couple of times here. One of them was not long ago about fibs. So don't be lazy and do some reading. You have a whole weekend for it. Since your new, I would recommend reading the whole thread and try to understand everything in depth.
Hi Kaunasny,

thanks for your reply.
You can be sure that I am currently reading form the start of the thread.
And when I read, there comes this question up in my mind.
I hoped to get a simple explanation for it.
But when you say, I will find it in the thread it is ok for me.

Sincerely

Cyborg
  • #3,063
  • Apr 18, 2008 5:01pm Apr 18, 2008 5:01pm
Quoting kaunasny
I believe it is a system. Although it is not a mechanical system since you yourself have to make entry points and system does not tell you when and where to enter. Other then that everything is clear. You have a set of rules to follow. So it's just a system, but it depends on your entry points.
I disagree. A system provides entry points and exits (and perhaps even has rules for trade size), thus eliminating guesswork and emotions.

The recent posting from Jacko that suggested the rules of the "system" are to be overriden (the elephants on the march) was based on his instincts. I think that was great that he generously posted his thoughts on the thread. But it introduces doubt to the rules and this thread becomes...well, more of a signal service with rules on how to enter and exit than a strategy. (I am just jotting down my thought for all, and trust me I don't consider this a signal service.) What do you do without access to the Jacko or the thread?

I maintain that as this thread evolves it is a set of rules to limit overtrading and losses, to teach how to trade rather than where to precisely enter and exit, and is truly a learning experience. Rules that teach you how to drive and provides a compass for direction, but leave the selecting of the destination to the driver. Do you want to use a 50 pip TSL or 100? Do you want to enter at the next round number while dropping or wait and try to enter when we bounce? How about that 50% fib only 30 pips from the next round number, should I enter at 5830 or wait for 5800? Again more of a trading classroom, teaching thread readers how to trade and make up their own minds.

These rules require thinking and decision making, not simply taking signals from a static methodology or a "system".

Perhaps this is just what I see based on my experience and others are convinced otherwise. But I am curious how many who have been posting here actually follow the rules to a "T"? I see many posters, who post often, breaking Jacko's rules. It appears that Jacko has taught them to drive and they now are gaining the confidence to take different exit ramps and routes to get to their destinations.

-Sean
  • #3,064
  • Apr 18, 2008 5:10pm Apr 18, 2008 5:10pm
Trading system to me is about when to enter the market, which direction, what position size, what risk (in pip terms), when to exit. So basically I agree with Sean. I would call Jacko's trading method rather than Jacko's trading system.

Happy weekend to you all!
Ocean
  • #3,065
  • Apr 18, 2008 5:38pm Apr 18, 2008 5:38pm
Sean

I agree with everything you have said. I dont see anything here as a rigid or mechanical system. I see it as more of a framework with which to trade within allowing the trader some thinking room. There is guess work and for some people this causes problems. I get indecisive as much as anyone else [I guess!]. I have tried orders for entries and orders for exits. Sometimes these pay off and sometimes these dont. I have only been following this system and thread for a week or so. What I have benefited from is the confidence to share thoughts and views with others trying to achieve a common goal. Just knowing that Jacko is making good progress coaching others proves to me it is possible and this helps me a lot. It gives me the confidence to get on with it. I do jump too quickly and sometimes too high so the patience thing is tricky for me but I am trying.

I do have my position open still for minimum lot size. I have just checked it and my broker is showing current price at 5882 so obviously a very good profit. I dont believe this price is valid however but fun all the same.

Have a great weekend everyone.

TP
  • #3,066
  • Apr 18, 2008 6:04pm Apr 18, 2008 6:04pm
Quoting cyborg
Hi Kaunasny,

thanks for your reply.
You can be sure that I am currently reading form the start of the thread.
And when I read, there comes this question up in my mind.
I hoped to get a simple explanation for it.
But when you say, I will find it in the thread it is ok for me.

Sincerely

Cyborg
Hi Cyborg....
Fibs are useful but they are somewhat open to interpretation as to exactly where they start and end but with a little practice you'll get the hang of them....
But first I think your time would be better spent studying support and resistance and being able to identify the trend, also getting used to patiently trading with the anti hedge....
as you get used to S&R lines and drawing your trend lines you will begin to notice a correlation with the 50% fib.
hope this helps a little.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #3,067
  • Apr 18, 2008 6:04pm Apr 18, 2008 6:04pm
As I expect the 5850 failed to support & the 5715 zone was printed, but did not hold. Now what?? When the market opens on Sunday maybe we'll have the answer. I did notice that price did make a quick bounce from the 5715 zone & cleared the 5800 before the market closed. I am still out waiting for the best level & if 5800 holds that just might be that level. Time will tell.

_________________
Acetrader
  • #3,068
  • Apr 18, 2008 6:36pm Apr 18, 2008 6:36pm
Quoting MPP
i'm inclined to believe so, the weekly candle is still bullish, higher lows and higher highs + the daily candle is sitting just above the supporting TL (we did bounce through it but if price hold we will close above it)
  • #3,069
  • Apr 18, 2008 7:42pm Apr 18, 2008 7:42pm
Quoting Trumpcard
congratulations AAD, nice trading (but why the bold text?), what was your entry criteria? GJ is king of the 50 retrace!

Sorry, That's just my style...

lot of support at 1.5750 and it coincides with the 50fib from 3rd-16th of April and upwards trendline. set a buy limit at 1.5750 with a 50 pip stop, about 1.5hours ago when price was at 1.5780ish. Kind of risky by not waiting for price to fall first and then enter! Went for a nice walk and have seen that the trade triggered, came within 11 pips of my stop and right now sitting at b/e

Go here for a more in depth Gbp/Jpy discussion but basically I was looking for the break of the 204.40 (100.0) fib line and up to the moon from there, he he...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1957822#post1957822
  • #3,070
  • Apr 18, 2008 9:34pm Apr 18, 2008 9:34pm
TakeProfit,

This line neatly summarizes my long-winded posts:

Quoting takeprofit
I see it as more of a framework with which to trade within allowing the trader some thinking room...

TP
Thanks for the brevity and clarity.

And thanks both Ocean and TakeProfit for supporting my thoughts. It is sort of a perhaps minor philosophical concept I am trying to express, but I do believe it is important. If you look at Jacko's teachings as a "framework" to trade within, as opposed to a strict "system", I think it opens up the fact that you still have to take individual responsibility for your trading.

And that is how one day you will be able to walk away from this thread a graduate and have the confidence to place money on your own ideas.

As I said, this may be just a minor point (especially to the beginners who are just trying to comprehend the rules), but I think it is very important.

-Sean
  • #3,071
  • Apr 18, 2008 10:04pm Apr 18, 2008 10:04pm
Quoting johnedoe
Hi Cyborg....
Fibs are useful but they are somewhat open to interpretation as to exactly where they start and end but with a little practice you'll get the hang of them....
But first I think your time would be better spent studying support and resistance and being able to identify the trend, also getting used to patiently trading with the anti hedge....
as you get used to S&R lines and drawing your trend lines you will begin to notice a correlation with the 50% fib.
hope this helps a little.
Hi Johenedoe,

thans for your explanation.
I will play around a bit with the fibs during studiing the charts.

Maybe I get a feeling for it after some time.

Cheers

Cyborg
  • #3,072
  • Apr 18, 2008 10:08pm Apr 18, 2008 10:08pm
Quoting seanchicago
TakeProfit,

This line neatly summarizes my long-winded posts:



Thanks for the brevity and clarity.

And thanks both Ocean and TakeProfit for supporting my thoughts. It is sort of a perhaps minor philosophical concept I am trying to express, but I do believe it is important. If you look at Jacko's teachings as a "framework" to trade within, as opposed to a strict "system", I think it opens up the fact that you still have to take individual responsibility for your trading.

And that is how one day you will be able to walk away from this thread a graduate and have the confidence to place money on your own ideas.

As I said, this may be just a minor point (especially to the beginners who are just trying to comprehend the rules), but I think it is very important.

-Sean
I don't think there is any "strict system" you can use in tradeing, that every trader could use, just on the issue of takeing profits is vastly different for everyone.

The common adage of "letting your profits run" might not be best for everyone, it's not for me right now while I'm trying to build equity in my account. Why should I lose all those pips just staying in the trade?

That's my view, which obviously isn't best for everyone, yet I'm comfortable with it.
  • #3,073
  • Apr 18, 2008 10:08pm Apr 18, 2008 10:08pm
Just sharing that the ECB intervention on Friday 4/18 bounced right off the trend line from the daily bar on 3/17 through the closes on 3/31 and 4/8.

Also there is confluence of support at 1.5667 and the 50% Fib retrace from the close on 4/17 to the low on 3/23 at 1.5650

Sorry it's a bit messy, I should have taken the other Fibs off.
Attached Image
  • #3,074
  • Apr 18, 2008 11:14pm Apr 18, 2008 11:14pm
my gosh! How do I read that?

Who said trading forex isn't rocket science?...............lol
  • #3,075
  • Edited Apr 19, 2008 12:34am Apr 18, 2008 11:17pm | Edited Apr 19, 2008 12:34am
Quoting eirron
Just sharing that the ECB intervention on Friday 4/18 bounced right off the trend line from the daily bar on 3/17 through the closes on 3/31 and 4/8.

Also there is confluence of support at 1.5667 and the 50% Fib retrace from the close on 4/17 to the low on 3/23 at 1.5650

Sorry it's a bit messy, I should have taken the other Fibs off.
Your making this harder than it has to be......
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #3,076
  • Edited 3:00am Apr 19, 2008 2:28am | Edited 3:00am
" Asked about foreign-exchange markets, Greenspan expressed skepticism in the idea of so-called equilibrium exchange rates, where currencies achieve their fair value. He also doubted whether central banks could be successful in affecting the exchange rate of a currency through intervention.
While buying and selling of currencies by central banks was successful in the past, the recent examples of intervention since the 1990s have had more mixed results, Greenspan said. He said the yen was little affected in 2004 when the Bank of Japan stopped intervening to sell the currency.
Greenspan judged that there is little proof that interventions are successful. " - Bloomberg.com

Well some dirt on ECB intervention. Neither I can understand how that intervention could possibly set a weak currency like USD up? By being a monster seller of EUR and buyer of USD is only temporary.
Ok so that caused a 250 pip drop, so what? It did not change any economical values that much to strengthen USD. USD is still in a deep hole.

Will be intresting to see where market opens up on monday. Market has retraced the drop almost to a 50% fib. Depending on where market opens up, 1.5800 still looks high, I think it will go lover , 1.5700 looks too far away, so I'm gona be looking to buy at 1.5750 on monday.

Well, one use for the weekend can be to discuss the trades we're going to take the comming week

other scenario:

if it continues to 1.5850 and starts retracing. Might go just as low as 1.5800. That would be around 50% fib of this move up from 1.5710 to 1.5850 before starting heading up again. Also there is a strong daily trend line around 1.5800 level .

So if on open monday market continues to 1.5850 level I'm a buyer at 1.5800
  • #3,077
  • Apr 19, 2008 12:13pm Apr 19, 2008 12:13pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSL1932011720080419
  • #3,078
  • Apr 19, 2008 12:44pm Apr 19, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting najarro
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSL1932011720080419
I wonder why this article came out on Saturday ...
Never say never.
  • #3,079
  • Apr 19, 2008 1:18pm Apr 19, 2008 1:18pm
Quoting seanchicago
As I posted earlier I was a buyer at 5830. This cost me 100 pips. Fortunately my gut (and the fib analysis I posted earlier) told me this was going to be a bad trade and I only placed a minimum trade. So no major damage was done.

As I stated before I am a very short-term trader in the yen and typically just trade from higher-highs with higher-lows, or the opposite; with a healthy amount of gut and experience mixed in. So for me to learn this new skill (Jacko's method) I am doing my best to ignore my instincts and just follow the rules.

I must tell you that I'm beginning to think that ignoring my experience is costly. I am beginning to believe I need to incorporate the best of Jacko's system with my instincts. As such use Jacko's method for entries and to limit the number of trades I am typically involved in. And use my experience to take profits occasionally and know when to ignore some entries.

This will be a struggle as I believe the best part of this thread's method is never guessing on how high is high, and just letting your trades run their course. So where does the system stop and the instincts takeover? And if I do this, am I still following the system at all?

I see many traders on this thread breaking with the rules and entering too frequently (as I was doing in the past) and taking profits without their trailing stop losses taking them out of their trades. As this is the case, traders liberally breaking the rules when their instincts (or emotions) are flashing warning signals, I wonder over the longer term whether this system is viable.

By that I mean is this system really a "system" at all? Or is it a reflection of Jacko's own skill. It could be that Jacko's instincts are telling him where to place a trade and then he uses the system (sub-consciously) to justify his entry. For example when he recently came back on this thread (just a bit prematurely) to warn of the "elephants" changing direction, this is pure instinct and perhaps solidly derived from reading and studying the fundamentals, but the system has no rules regarding this.

Now do not get me wrong thinking I am bashing Jacko or this thread; I think this is the most beneficial thread I have ever seen. I think all new traders will benefit from reading it and participating in trades based on its rules.

So perhaps this is not so much "Jacko's System", but "Jacko's Classroom"! A thread where students learn the art of trade management, of careful selection of entries (not punting), the benefits of patience, the profit in being aware of the long term trends, and that taking controlled loses is okay. And in the end a place where you will learn to control your impulses but not totally snuff them out.

-Sean
This is very insightful analysis. You are so right about flexible rules. Even following Jacko's trading I have more than once said to myself, "Where did that come from?" But, as I think Jacko would put it, it's a Classroom ON STEROIDS.

Since trading is down for the weekend I hope you don't mind if I bring back up more philosophical issues. This Classroom Idea is fundamentally one of the main reasons I advocate calling Jacko's followers something besides "Turtles." I repeat, it's not the same.

There's other big differences. No one is watching over your shoulder. It's more like we get to watch over the shoulder of a master at work. And in Jacko's Univ. as they say, "all is at risk." You use your own money to appy what you have learned. Big Difference.

At another level, a while back the Aussies in Jacko's group showed us how this should work, I think. Was it not interesting to watch the friendships form? Did you not form life-long friendships when you were at school? I'm happy and hoping to see that happening here.

Point being, we do need to identify ourselves as Jacko's students. Especially if you don't regularly post. How we going to get to know you? A big thanks here to those of you who do already and for adding so much with your market wisdom. I suspect most of us are content to just read and be inspired.

This whole Jacko movement seems to be just getting going. What if it's wildly successful? It may be too late already but I believe it needs a classier identifier than Turtle. I'm going to let my Lantern shine a while longer but I'm not stuck on that name. I know I'm corny. I like puns. I can hear my grandkids, "Ohhhh, Grammmpa."

So here's another idea. I do practice Aikido but I have no problem calling Jacko "Sensei." What's the word for student in a popular Hong Kong martial art?

Aloha, Wheels
  • #3,080
  • Apr 19, 2008 2:11pm Apr 19, 2008 2:11pm
How about "Apprentice"
Same Whore .... Different Dress
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