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bringin sexy back - stochastics

  • #1,921
  • Apr 18, 2008 1:41am Apr 18, 2008 1:41am
Quoting soce
Hmmm, so looking back through these it looks like you knock them out for the following reasons in no particular order:

a) if price is stuck in trading range you will wait for a breakout and then a retracement back. it also appears that you are looking for more then 1 candle of consolidation.

b) if the retracement is more then the .386 or .50 of the last swing you pass?

I am kind of baffled actually as the trade you added seems similar to me to others that you have Xed out. Please explain if you would what you mean by fibo retracement or let me know if I am correct above. It seems to me that you like the breakout first (this is good because it gives better chance that price will actually move) and then you want a pull back to the .386 or somewhere before entering (this is also good as it seems to lower the chances that they next candle will go against you.

It seems that if you wait for price to pull back to the .386 to .500 of last swing and then stochs roll around for you, if prices doesn't move for you pretty quickly then it is smart to just get out. One detail, you used expansion fibs instead of retracement fibs so the real figures are .618 and .500 in fact.

Am I onto something here?
You are absolutly on the right way and the numbers you figured out for the fibs are the one i use. My maximum limit is a bit above .386, for .500 i would take a trade only if a spike entered the .500 but did not close very near or above/below (short/long).
Detail : you used fibs expansion and not fibs retracement so the real figures are .618 and .500

Another hint : waves (yet i did not applied this one to your doc file i think). I prefer to take the first or second wave than the others even if i miss a very big move.
  • #1,922
  • Apr 18, 2008 5:08am Apr 18, 2008 5:08am
Hi !

Melpheos, just for training: Would you have taken this one on GY at the same time and price? This time i waited for price to break the previous high and right now it look like it worked +40 as i am writing

Iīve read through half thread of peaks and valleys and played with it a little but just visually and its looking good.

or would you have had any trick to get in the trade even earlier ? Of course i would enter earlier if only relying on the stoch cross but i think there is more to be considered if i want to keep away from losing trades.
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  • #1,923
  • Apr 18, 2008 8:11am Apr 18, 2008 8:11am
Quoting DanFX
Hi !

Melpheos, just for training: Would you have taken this one on GY at the same time and price? This time i waited for price to break the previous high and right now it look like it worked +40 as i am writing

Iīve read through half thread of peaks and valleys and played with it a little but just visually and its looking good.

or would you have had any trick to get in the trade even earlier ? Of course i would enter earlier if only relying on the stoch cross but i think there is more to be considered if i want to keep away from losing trades.
Perfect trade ! I hate myself, i was playing Baldurs Gate and did not pay attention... I hope you kept the trade at least to 207.5.

You can see that price retraced to .382 and price spike to .50 so this is just perfect and this was the 1st pull back (or 2nd as this is pretty discretionnary)

Ah and for your question, i would have entered one candle before that is around 204.50 because price rebounded on the fibs .500
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  • #1,924
  • Apr 18, 2008 8:22am Apr 18, 2008 8:22am
WOW!! What a move! To bad i went out at +50 pips īcause i was at work.
Well as you see itīs always the demo-trades that run good.
I didnīt think there was such a huge potential on Friday.

According to P&V from the 1H i would still be in. Damn.

Now I need to look deeper into price action and Fibs.
Never really used them.
  • #1,925
  • Apr 18, 2008 8:53am Apr 18, 2008 8:53am
Quoting melpheos
You can see that price retraced to .382 and price spike to .50 so this is just perfect and this was the 1st pull back (or 2nd as this is pretty discretionnary)
What do you mean by this? I am pretty sure I see the .50 spike you are talking about but what do you mean by .382 retracement? doesn't the retracement have to occur after you mark the top of the move? meaning, if the price retraces to the .50 by definition it would ALWAYS have had to retrace through the .386 to get to the .500. or are you referring to the touching of the .386 in its first pull back prior to marking the high? I am a bit confused here but trying to understand.
  • #1,926
  • Apr 18, 2008 8:53am Apr 18, 2008 8:53am
Well, I was just asking myself how often will we find a situation like that ?

The last one was yesterday. Not as big as today but the same setup.

Are there more of those regulary ? Melpheos, is that the thing to look for ?

Price consolidating for a while without going no where, then the first break to determine direction and jump on the second one ?

Hereīs a chart from yesterday!
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  • #1,927
  • Apr 18, 2008 9:08am Apr 18, 2008 9:08am
Melpheos, I notice that on your charts that you post here you are using 20,10,10 and 50,10,10 but in your bundle you use 20,2,20 and 50,2,20. On page one Boxingislife uses 20,10,20 and 50,10,20. Now I know its just math and there are all different combinations that probably work better/worse for different time frames and different currencies pending the current pattern that they are in but can you shed any more light on this as to why you are now using what you are using?

Thanks
  • #1,928
  • Apr 18, 2008 9:14am Apr 18, 2008 9:14am
DanFX,

I was just wondering last night if you were still around since I hadn't seen a post from you in a while. I'm doing pretty good with this system right now. It took a littlw while for me to get the concepts down but it's there now. Now I'm off to reclaim my $130 that I lost by getting too nervous and exiting too soon only to see the trade turn around and go 70+ pips in my favor.


Quoting DanFX
Well, I was just asking myself how often will we find a situation like that ?

The last one was yesterday. Not as big as today but the same setup.

Are there more of those regulary ? Melpheos, is that the thing to look for ?

Price consolidating for a while without going no where, then the first break to determine direction and jump on the second one ?

Hereīs a chart from yesterday!
  • #1,929
  • Apr 18, 2008 12:24pm Apr 18, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting soce
What do you mean by this? I am pretty sure I see the .50 spike you are talking about but what do you mean by .382 retracement? doesn't the retracement have to occur after you mark the top of the move? meaning, if the price retraces to the .50 by definition it would ALWAYS have had to retrace through the .386 to get to the .500. or are you referring to the touching of the .386 in its first pull back prior to marking the high? I am a bit confused here but trying to understand.
Sorry i meant .618 not .386
  • #1,930
  • Apr 18, 2008 2:01pm Apr 18, 2008 2:01pm
Quoting DanFX
Well, I was just asking myself how often will we find a situation like that ?

The last one was yesterday. Not as big as today but the same setup.

Are there more of those regulary ? Melpheos, is that the thing to look for ?

Price consolidating for a while without going no where, then the first break to determine direction and jump on the second one ?

Hereīs a chart from yesterday!
That's a very frequent setup that occurs allmost at least once a day on M15 if you look several pair. If you look at M5 it will occur very often.
  • #1,931
  • Apr 19, 2008 3:42am Apr 19, 2008 3:42am
Was wondering if there's an indicator out there or if one can be made that alerts when all 3 stochs are above or below the middle (50) line. I personally find this as a good filter for taking trades...ie only buy if all stochs are above 50 and sell when all 3 are below 50.

If 20 and 50 stochs are above 50 already, there tend to be good entries when the 5 stoch dips down and crosses over 50 line again.

I've tried using a stoch crossing alert but get too many with the 5 stoch so would be good having a filter that only gives relevant alerts. Also would be good if could set all three variables for each stoch and even decide how many stochs we want to consider (some may only want to use 2)

Anyone else think this would be good?

Bobby
  • #1,932
  • Apr 19, 2008 3:49am Apr 19, 2008 3:49am
Quoting bobbybrown
Was wondering if there's an indicator out there or if one can be made that alerts when all 3 stochs are above or below the middle (50) line. I personally find this as a good filter for taking trades...ie only buy if all stochs are above 50 and sell when all 3 are below 50.

If 20 and 50 stochs are above 50 already, there tend to be good entries when the 5 stoch dips down and crosses over 50 line again.

I've tried using a stoch crossing alert but get too many with the 5 stoch so would be good having a filter that only gives relevant alerts. Also would be good if could set all three variables for each stoch and even decide how many stochs we want to consider (some may only want to use 2)

Anyone else think this would be good?

Bobby
Can you post some screenshot to explain your view graphically ? I'm allways looking to improve with other people ideas
  • #1,933
  • Apr 19, 2008 7:23am Apr 19, 2008 7:23am
Quoting soce
Melpheos, I notice that on your charts that you post here you are using 20,10,10 and 50,10,10 but in your bundle you use 20,2,20 and 50,2,20. On page one Boxingislife uses 20,10,20 and 50,10,20. Now I know its just math and there are all different combinations that probably work better/worse for different time frames and different currencies pending the current pattern that they are in but can you shed any more light on this as to why you are now using what you are using?

Thanks
Melpheos, could you address this question?

Thanks
  • #1,934
  • Apr 19, 2008 7:42am Apr 19, 2008 7:42am
Thanks for taking an interest in this idea.

So as soon as all 3 stochs are either below (sell) or above (buy) the middle (50) line the indicator would give an alert (sound, arrow and pop up window).

Would be good to allow each stoch settings to be changeable and also if someone wanted to just use 2 stochs instead of 3 that would be a good option too.

As with any indicator this would give 'bad' signals but it does filter out alot of bad trades...ie market must be strong trending for all 2/3 stochs to be above/below 50. Anyway there should be other indicators/setup criteria in any system as relying on 1 indicator is not recommended.

Thanks

Bobby
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  • #1,935
  • Apr 19, 2008 9:23am Apr 19, 2008 9:23am
Quoting soce
Melpheos, could you address this question?

Thanks
Different settings will give different signal. 20.2.10/50.2.10 is more reactive than 20.10.10/50.10.10 but might give you more false signal.

You can test with different settings to see which one are the best for you but 20.10.10 is usually very nice in most situations.
  • #1,936
  • Apr 19, 2008 9:46am Apr 19, 2008 9:46am
Quoting melpheos
Different settings will give different signal. 20.2.10/50.2.10 is more reactive than 20.10.10/50.10.10 but might give you more false signal.

You can test with different settings to see which one are the best for you but 20.10.10 is usually very nice in most situations.
thx for the explanation. i will indeed load them all up and check it out for myself. hope everyone is having a good weekend.
  • #1,937
  • Apr 21, 2008 1:38am Apr 21, 2008 1:38am
Quoting bobbybrown
Thanks for taking an interest in this idea.

So as soon as all 3 stochs are either below (sell) or above (buy) the middle (50) line the indicator would give an alert (sound, arrow and pop up window).

Would be good to allow each stoch settings to be changeable and also if someone wanted to just use 2 stochs instead of 3 that would be a good option too.

As with any indicator this would give 'bad' signals but it does filter out alot of bad trades...ie market must be strong trending for all 2/3 stochs to be above/below 50. Anyway there should be other indicators/setup criteria in any system as relying on 1 indicator is not recommended.

Thanks

Bobby
Sry, i dont really get it :-/

Also i think you really use to many indicators... 17 if i count well... How far do you want to go with indicators ? Do you really need all those stuff to telll you if the trend is established or not ?
  • #1,938
  • Apr 21, 2008 6:00am Apr 21, 2008 6:00am
Thanks for your system, I am a beginner both in forex and this forum. I have being trying to put the stochastics in one window but find it difficult for about one week now. I followed all the procedure stated like dragin but it would not move into it. can you help.
  • #1,939
  • Apr 21, 2008 7:39am Apr 21, 2008 7:39am
Quoting abiodun
Thanks for your system, I am a beginner both in forex and this forum. I have being trying to put the stochastics in one window but find it difficult for about one week now. I followed all the procedure stated like dragin but it would not move into it. can you help.
Made a small guide, if you dont get it well there is nothing else i can do for you.

http://melpheos1er.free.fr/forex/Stoch_Guide.swf
  • #1,940
  • Edited 11:41am Apr 21, 2008 11:02am | Edited 11:41am
Quoting melpheos
Sry, i dont really get it :-/

Also i think you really use to many indicators... 17 if i count well... How far do you want to go with indicators ? Do you really need all those stuff to telll you if the trend is established or not ?
LOL. I'm a bit of an indicator tart. I attach indicators that look like they could be benificial and now I'm in the process of deciding which ones work for me...this is still a work in progress and there will def be less indicators when I've finished...but thanks for the advice.

Sorry if I didn't make sense...basically when all 3 stochs are above 50 the indicator would give a buy signal and when all 3 are below 50 it would give a sell. As soon as that criteria is me the signal would be given.

eg 2 of the stochs (let's say 20 and 50) are above the middle and as soon as the 5 crosses above from below we get a buy signal. If the 5 moves back below there's no signal because the other 2 are above. But as soon as the 5 (or any 1 of the 3 stochs) moves back up another buy signal is generated.

Have a look at your own charts...this looks like it would give some good signals.
Thanks
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