Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

i got in on the first dip at 1.5900 and was stopped out at 1.5886. -14 pips. Have now set a new buy in at 1.5850.

K8

Hi,
Sorry that this is a little late, but I thought I would post my views on the article that JohnDoe provided. At present I am in a long trade and the only thing that scares me is the possibility of direct intervention in the market by Central Banks.

Views on the article:
1. The Federal Reserve Switches Focus Away from Economy, Financial Markets to Inflation
OK, so the Fed says: even though it is election year, we don't care about resession and unemployment or about our Wall Street friends. - How likely is this just now?

2. The European Central Bank Drops Their Hawkish Tone
ECB members were still hawkish in public as recently as Tuesday. ECB mandate is Price Stability - not employment or economic growth. So although they don't want a strong Euro / weak Dollar - they can't very well reduce interest rates to fight it - not until inflation subsides.

3. Monthly RSI is overbought (it is 85 and previously there was a turn when it got to between 76 and 82).
OK who on this thread trades purely from RSI? In a trend, RSI can stay overbought for longer than a short can stay solvent. How would you have done if you had shorted (and stayed short) when it got to 76 or even 82?

4. Weekly Channel - Eur/Usd is around the centre line (which could act as resistance).
Sure it could, but equally it could go all the way up to the top of the upward sloping channel before turning. Or it could even break through the top - all channels are eventually broken.

5. Weekly Bar Cycle - past up legs have had cycles of 20 to 31 weeks and we are currently at end of week 22.
OK, so if this cycle runs as long as the last one we have 9 more weeks to go.

6. (Possible) Elliot wave counts indicate bearishness to come and the projected turning points from a (possible) 4hr wave count are 1.6055 or 1.6118.
Ellito Waves are like a re-painting indicator they keep on getting revised - so they are always good in hindsight and great on backtesting, but pretty unreliable in forward testing. In any case, I would not mind if it turned at 1.6055, because I would still have a profit.

Rant now over,
Ian

Market is very weak, we won't see 1.6000 this time or maybe I am wrong but I am out of the market for today.

Good trading to you all.

Ocean

Well I see 1.6000 has not been printed yet, but is still expect. It seems to me that the 5850 level has keep price supported, but will it hold on the next attempt. The article post by Johndoe is very thought prevoking & a very good read for all. I enjoyed janfOster's views on the situation & the possibility of direct intervention by the CB's is something to be concerned about.

If 5850 can support price I am considering buying in after the open on Sunday or early Monday as long as it STAYS SUPPORT. If 5850 fails to support on the next attack, then we could see it hit 5700-5650.
For now I will stay out patiently waiting for a better entry level. Wishing everyone a great weekend.

___________
AceTrader

Hello

I set a buy order at 5880 and its just been hit so it seems I'm back in already.

TP

I had a TP set for 1.5950 and it did not execute, then proceeded to hit my SL...funtimes.

Was this an issue with your broker, eg set the TP and a gremlin got in there and it wasn't activated. If this is the case maybe you should hit them up to recoup your losses.

K8

Any ideas on what caused the big drop of the EUR/USD ?

What I see now is a 5th wave with overlapping waves. What it means in EW terms is that we can see a huge downward move and that in turn means that there will be a great shorting opportunity. But again I don't want anybody to take it as a trade advise cause I could be wrong. I wanted only to share with you my view.

Ocean

Careful this puppy seems like it's going to go down, down, down, and definitely pass the 1.5850 mark maybe to 1.5800 or 1.5750. I would wait to see where it actually settles before thinking of going long plus the NY session is coming up...

Maybe thats why the E/U is dropping like a shot duck

any idea at what price ? thanks..

50% fib at 1.5827 for this weeks weekly candle hit near perfectly - so is it support or not, only time will tell.

One of my problems in the past was, at times like these, giving back all the profit I'd made previously. Watch out for those hefalumps!

MPP, I actually have 1.5821 as the weekly 50fib but that is based on ibfx feed.

I'm waiting to see if price will dip below 1.58 or below 1.5750 then will buy on resumption of trend.

Some charts, firstly 4 hr showing many opportunities where price bounced off trendline support (some great trade opportunities) Price is hovering around the support now.

Daily showing trendline support around 1.5750.

E/U 1.5750 we are almost there baby, he he. My G/J trade is currently on Viagra right now at +400 pips...LOL!

i stopped trading gj long ago - wild rides BUT wild heartbeats and anxiety

Fellow traders,

Does anyone know the fundies of why there was such a large drop?

200 pip drop within 4Hrs

I suspect this could be the much anticipated ECB intervention.

I'm staying on the sidelines - goodness knows where this fall could end.

Could be good buying opportunities next week though!