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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #2,961
  • Apr 17, 2008 11:55am Apr 17, 2008 11:55am
Quoting Trumpcard
thanks everyone for your replies. i had a buy limit that initially missed by 1 pip (ibfx feed) then hit while i was away and iv'e reurned to find it stopped out at a 50 pip loss. at least it was only a demo trade! what are the ramifications of moving into a period of increased uncertainty and volatility? Still favour euro longs at round numbers and 50 fibs with 50 fib stop losses? is i time to automatically set a 100 stoploss given current market uncertainty?

i would really appreciate some ORIGINAL Jacko followers (or turtles or whatever you guys call yourselves) give analysis on trades and or your opinions of the market. I am in Jacko's second group and plan going live in June but want to have the reassurance I'm ot trading blinldly.

for those who have entered at levels other than xx50 or xx00 (round numbers) can you explain why u entered at the price u did?
I got in at 5870.I chose this because it was my 50% fib level on the 4h chart. To me, an xx00 or xx50 is just a bonus (lets me know my fib is right on target). But when the 50% cant be rounded to an xx00 or xx50, I just enter at the 50% level. It has worked for me so far. I am running a 50 pip tsl, but I could be wwwrong... (If I am would somebody please correct me)
Live From Los Angeles
  • #2,962
  • Apr 17, 2008 12:10pm Apr 17, 2008 12:10pm
Here are the shorter term entry points I see:

-5900, next lowest round number (This may be risky with a 100 pip TSL, given that 6000 may be strong resistance. Not very enticing with a risk reward ratio of 1 to 1. If you believe we will shoot through 6000 then it is probably an excellent opportunity to enter. Or perhaps use a 50 pip TSL.)
-5830, 50% fib retrace from the 5670 post gap low to our all-time high of 5984. (I like this entry point.)
-5800, round number
-5750, 50% of 5510 low to 5984 high. (This point is now below the upward trendline made by connecting the 5341 low with the 5670 low. Therefore, I suspect we won't reach this.)

If we drop below these then it is on to the daily charts to determine where to enter.

It looks like I am a buyer at 5830. I do want to tell you that my gut is telling me that we may have put in our top for the next few weeks. So although I will buy at 5830 (because I know I really do not know anything) I am going to keep this position small. I think my bullishness will return if and when we are trading over 1.6000.

My 2 cents,

Sean
  • #2,963
  • Apr 17, 2008 12:35pm Apr 17, 2008 12:35pm
I encourage those of you who do not want to be influenced by others' opinions to move on to the next post. I also encourage everyone not to be influenced by others' opinions.

One more point about our potential to be topping out for the time being (and I truly hope I am wrong). We made a low on August 15th of 1.3361 on my platform and a high of 1.4968 on November 21st. The fib number of 1.618 of this move would bring us to 1.5961.

.618 * (4968 - 3361) + 4968 = 5961

This may make more sense if you look at your charts. Just some food for thought.



-Sean
  • #2,964
  • Apr 17, 2008 1:37pm Apr 17, 2008 1:37pm
Hi guys, I got in at 5900 eventually (actually a little lower initially but I messed about with my s/l at the USA news, then got back in after being marginally stopped out. An act of pure muppetry!)

Like others I have a 100 pip s/l but my question is, if this gets hit and I deploy the A-H strategy, is it wise to still use a further retracement value of 50 pips as in the original rules or is it more prudent to use a 100 pip further retracement value (which seems a lot perhaps)

Has Jacko mentioned this at all ? as I can't spot any recent reference to it now that 100 pip s/l's are being used in these er turbulent times.
  • #2,965
  • Apr 17, 2008 1:58pm Apr 17, 2008 1:58pm
Quoting PippinL
Hi guys, I got in at 5900 eventually (actually a little lower initially but I messed about with my s/l at the USA news, then got back in after being marginally stopped out. An act of pure muppetry!)

Like others I have a 100 pip s/l but my question is, if this gets hit and I deploy the A-H strategy, is it wise to still use a further retracement value of 50 pips as in the original rules or is it more prudent to use a 100 pip further retracement value (which seems a lot perhaps)

Has Jacko mentioned this at all ? as I can't spot any recent reference to it now that 100 pip s/l's are being used in these er turbulent times.

It was mentioned from one of the turtles that the retracement value remains at 50 pips.

-Sean
  • #2,966
  • Apr 17, 2008 2:13pm Apr 17, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting seanchicago
It was mentioned from one of the turtles that the retracement value remains at 50 pips.

-Sean
It reamains at 50 pips.

Happy trading !
  • #2,967
  • Apr 17, 2008 2:19pm Apr 17, 2008 2:19pm
Thanks Guys, much appreciated. I'm glad its 50 pips, as that sort of seems right.
  • #2,968
  • Apr 17, 2008 2:22pm Apr 17, 2008 2:22pm
PippinL,

Great quote, "The belief in miracles that all men cherish, is born of immoderate indulgence in hope" - Edwin Lefevre - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

-Sean
  • #2,969
  • Apr 17, 2008 2:42pm Apr 17, 2008 2:42pm
I'd really recommend this book to anyone who has not read it. Absolute gold!
I'm sure most of you already know, but it is supposed to be about the career of Jesse Livermore (A master trend trader) written by Lefevre as though he were in his shoes but uses a different (ficticious) name (Larry Livingstone).

Written 70 odd years ago, the similarities in trading psychology are startling to say the least and a riveting read.

A real classic full of Gems like the one I chose to use below.
  • #2,970
  • Apr 17, 2008 2:43pm Apr 17, 2008 2:43pm
I am a buyer at 1.5850 for the second time today! (50% fib low 4/15 - high 4/17, still hanging around that strong trendline, round number)

The first trade yielded 44 pips as I used a 50pip TSL.

I passed on the 1.5900 trade as I was feeling a little greedy and looking for a lower price and I first thought I'd made a mistake but all was well in the end.

All of course IMHO, I could be wrooong!
  • #2,971
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:24pm Apr 17, 2008 3:24pm
Quoting Saint Stevo
I am a buyer at 1.5850 for the second time today!
Saint Stevo

Hello

I'm confused so please dont read this as some form of attack. I saw we hit 5850 earlier today but that was just once at around 12:30 GMT. How did you get to buy at 5850 twice? Apologies if I misread something.

TP
  • #2,972
  • Edited 3:55pm Apr 17, 2008 3:38pm | Edited 3:55pm
Hi takeprofit

When I say I am a buyer at 1.5850 I mean I have a buy limit order in at 1.5850. (This is Jacko-speak)

The first order was hit for a 44 pip profit.
The second has not been hit - yet!

I find this method of buy limits and buy stops suits me as I can think calmly and logically about where to place my entries before the price is reached.

It stops you chasing the market (let the market come to you) and making hasty decisions.

If you're wrong and the trade goes against you there's always the AH - and nobody's right all the time.
If you're wrong and the price is never reached - well you've lost nothing and you can look for the next trade.

HTH
  • #2,973
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:02pm Apr 17, 2008 4:02pm
Saint Stevo

OK I got it. You wanna be or will be a buyer if price hits 5850. I see. If price hit 5850 I'd wanna be a buyer too.

I can understand what you mean about fixed orders. I also find myself second guessing when to enter. And then when to exit. Do you fix your take profit point when you set your order or do you always trail stops?

Thanks

PS I cant say good luck hitting 5850 as I'm in at 5865 with stop at BE, sorry. All I see is upside right now.
  • #2,974
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:43pm Apr 17, 2008 4:43pm
takeprofit

Hey if my buy limit order is not hit, as I said before I've lost nothing. I hope you make lots of pips from your trade and I shall just wait for the next inevitable retracement to look for my next entry. It might not be this week or even this month though!

With regard to exits, I ALWAYS use a TSL, but sometimes I might use my discretion and close a trade if I think the upward momentum is stalling and its starting to retrace. Having said that more often than not especially with such a weak dollar it will temporarily stall then take off again.
Using a TSL makes the decision when to exit for you - no pressure!

I personally never set a take profit target as it's just limiting potential gains (let winning trades run!)
  • #2,975
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:51pm Apr 17, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting PippinL
Hi guys, I got in at 5900 eventually (actually a little lower initially but I messed about with my s/l at the USA news, then got back in after being marginally stopped out. An act of pure muppetry!)

Like others I have a 100 pip s/l but my question is, if this gets hit and I deploy the A-H strategy, is it wise to still use a further retracement value of 50 pips as in the original rules or is it more prudent to use a 100 pip further retracement value (which seems a lot perhaps)

Has Jacko mentioned this at all ? as I can't spot any recent reference to it now that 100 pip s/l's are being used in these er turbulent times.
Hi there,
The retracement value is still 50 pips even when using the 100 pip s/l.

Jacko did point this out on the blog sometime ago when he moved to the 100 pip s/l
Hope this helps
  • #2,976
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:54pm Apr 17, 2008 5:54pm
i wonder how many people got stopped out on last long 5900 trade. Seems like there was only 2 pips diff. between stop order + 2 pips spread and diff. feeds..

So who got stopped and who is still in the game?
  • #2,977
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:36pm Apr 17, 2008 6:36pm
my gosh! this market is crazy.......I've been on the sidelines.....

what does everyone else think of being in this?
  • #2,978
  • Apr 17, 2008 7:00pm Apr 17, 2008 7:00pm
If in doubt...
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #2,979
  • Apr 17, 2008 7:03pm Apr 17, 2008 7:03pm
I waslong from 5751 on4/10, stopped out on drop at +4, 100 TSL. Long again 4/13 at 5706, stopped out 5786, 4/15 +80, long again 5900, stopped out5883 on 4/17, -17. overall up.waiting for 5883 AH to get picked up. This market is very volatile right now, but may see direction by london open.
  • #2,980
  • Apr 17, 2008 7:22pm Apr 17, 2008 7:22pm
Out of long from 5855 @ 5935 for +160 pips on 2 lots. I just don't feel good about 5900 holding as support & not willing to hold over the weekend, so I'm
out for now. If 5850 or 5900 can hold as support I might reenter, otherwise I'm out until a better level is seen. Everyone have a great weekend.

____________
AceTrader
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