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  • #6,681
  • Apr 16, 2008 1:59pm Apr 16, 2008 1:59pm
I expect euro to break trhough 1.60 after the US market closes today, i.e. between 6 and 9 p.m. EST.
That's how the bulls had taken all the other spectacular levels - 1.45, 1.5, 1.55... In the quiet after-hours market, when noone was looking :-)
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #6,682
  • Apr 16, 2008 2:24pm Apr 16, 2008 2:24pm
Quoting digitil
you're on
1.6250+
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #6,683
  • Apr 16, 2008 2:28pm Apr 16, 2008 2:28pm
The last 4 big moves Up/Down, on the 4H all had 61.8 fib retraces, almost to the PIP.

I'll wait for 1.5840 area to go long.

May not happen this time, but over the last week+, it's happened 4 times.

typically during(or starting) the Asian session.
  • #6,684
  • Apr 16, 2008 2:38pm Apr 16, 2008 2:38pm
I went short EUR/USD @1.5948.I noticed a negative MACD divergence to price.There was also a railroad track at the end of the uptrend with price channelling.
  • #6,685
  • Apr 16, 2008 2:46pm Apr 16, 2008 2:46pm
Long @ 1.5948, take profit at@ 1.59949 just to play it safe
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #6,686
  • Apr 16, 2008 2:59pm Apr 16, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting jchidolue
I went short EUR/USD @1.5948.I noticed a negative MACD divergence to price.There was also a railroad track at the end of the uptrend with price channelling.

The Euro has formed a flag pattern at the top. This flag can be enclosed within 2 horizontal lines, one at top and one at bottom. This pattern is one of the strongest technical indicators in the market. A break from the flag will normally exit in the same direction it entered (ie. up) and the break should be approximately the length of flag pole. However it can break either way.

You should wait for a break out of the flag before entering a short position as this is quite dangerous.

Also, I can't see any negative divergence on Mac.

I wish you well with your trade and it could work out but not based on any sound technical analysis.
  • #6,687
  • Apr 16, 2008 5:25pm Apr 16, 2008 5:25pm
Quote
The last 4 big moves Up/Down, on the 4H all had 61.8 fib retraces, almost to the PIP.

I'll wait for 1.5840 area to go long.

May not happen this time, but over the last week+, it's happened 4 times.

typically during(or starting) the Asian session.

I tend to agree, i'm waiting for a retracement to the 1.5850 level as well, then I believe it will push past 1.6.

Cheers
  • #6,688
  • Apr 16, 2008 5:48pm Apr 16, 2008 5:48pm
Looks like a nice clean break with the NY close.
I'm long now and expecting another nice run up...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jc schiff.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #6,689
  • Apr 16, 2008 5:52pm Apr 16, 2008 5:52pm
Exactly! A coy crawl in the quiet market hours, than sudden breach of stop losses for 50-100 pips in 10 minutes - the usual EUR/USD of 2008 :-)
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #6,690
  • Apr 16, 2008 7:47pm Apr 16, 2008 7:47pm
What a nice drop! Added another long at 1.5918
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #6,691
  • Apr 16, 2008 9:26pm Apr 16, 2008 9:26pm
Quoting Firstboss
What a nice drop! Added another long at 1.5918
Just curious where do you have your stop on this? I was stopped out at 1.5919. I'm wondering if I was among many stops around that level so someone pushed the level down to weed us out?

I'm from the stock/options world and I'm still learning this market, it definitely behaves differently.
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #6,692
  • Apr 17, 2008 1:30am Apr 17, 2008 1:30am
EUR/USD (1.5933)European & US sessions forecast levels: 1.5865/1.5965Trend Sessions: European: NeutralUS: Neutral/UpwardMarket Focus: 8:30 AM Initial Claims, 10:00 AM Leading Indicators, Philadelphia Fed, 4:00 AM ECB Monthly Bulletin, 5:00 AM EU Trade Balance. Daily Strategy: Euro/Dollar will continue to move in upward direction. We are predicting the break above 1.60. The Fed, ECB, G7 and all rest banks would not stop the falling dollar if not take suitable measures. It is necessary intervention to stop the dollar otherwise we will see levels up to 1.68 even more. The euro zone inflation drives up the dollar. The European Central Bank would not cut the interest rates due too the high inflation soon. For today is expecting temporary recovery of the dollar. But is also possible test of new records today. Therefore we recommend opening long positions, as buy on dips.
  • #6,693
  • Apr 17, 2008 1:37am Apr 17, 2008 1:37am
Quoting Ultraman
EUR/USD (1.5933)European & US sessions forecast levels: 1.5865/1.5965Trend Sessions: European: NeutralUS: Neutral/UpwardMarket Focus: 8:30 AM Initial Claims, 10:00 AM Leading Indicators, Philadelphia Fed, 4:00 AM ECB Monthly Bulletin, 5:00 AM EU Trade Balance. Daily Strategy: Euro/Dollar will continue to move in upward direction. We are predicting the break above 1.60. The Fed, ECB, G7 and all rest banks would not stop the falling dollar if not take suitable measures. It is necessary intervention to stop the dollar otherwise we will see levels up to 1.68 even more. The euro zone inflation drives up the dollar. The European Central Bank would not cut the interest rates due too the high inflation soon. For today is expecting temporary recovery of the dollar. But is also possible test of new records today. Therefore we recommend opening long positions, as buy on dips.
I'll be long @ 1.5900 today and let the London session do its thing...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,694
  • Apr 17, 2008 1:41am Apr 17, 2008 1:41am
Quoting Aad
I'll be long @ 1.5900 today and let the London session do its thing...
Good luck to you then..that's the best move to do right now concerning EUR/USD..
it's a matter of time..
"Building Wealth By Confidence, Consistency, & Compounding"
  • #6,695
  • Apr 17, 2008 1:41am Apr 17, 2008 1:41am
okay Guys..
I have smal plan to do long Eu from Daily pivot(1.59 1,5898), Will add more in 1.5870 area.. it wil have to go back to re-test at least 1.5975 and then 1.6 level.
Our daily and weekly indicators still Bullish.
well depends on situation when market will reach at those points. lots of depends on upcoming fundamentals.today we have ZEW news + ECB Monthly Bulletin, which will tell us about inflation.. so will look on those news also..will see what wil be best to do..
Don't follow me
  • #6,696
  • Apr 17, 2008 1:44am Apr 17, 2008 1:44am
Quoting Aad
I'll be long @ 1.5900 today and let the London session do its thing...
  • #6,697
  • Apr 17, 2008 2:10am Apr 17, 2008 2:10am
Quoting Tradester
Just curious where do you have your stop on this? I was stopped out at 1.5919. I'm wondering if I was among many stops around that level so someone pushed the level down to weed us out?

I'm from the stock/options world and I'm still learning this market, it definitely behaves differently.
Yes, you are right.

stop-hunting do exsit in forex world, although it's claimed as the most liquidated market in the world.

regards,
Mike
  • #6,698
  • Edited 2:34am Apr 17, 2008 2:17am | Edited 2:34am
Quoting Hammad
okay Guys..
I have smal plan to do long Eu from Daily pivot(1.59 1,5898), Will add more in 1.5870 area.. it wil have to go back to re-test at least 1.5975 and then 1.6 level.
Our daily and weekly indicators still Bullish.
well depends on situation when market will reach at those points. lots of depends on upcoming fundamentals.today we have ZEW news + ECB Monthly Bulletin, which will tell us about inflation.. so will look on those news also..will see what wil be best to do..
Don't follow me
have tped 50 pips okay technicaly on big TFrames 1.6 to 1.635 possible in EU .. who knows above 1.6 heaps of buyer's pending buy waiting??
====================
The euro-zone consumer inflation rate in March rose to an unprecedented 3.6% - way above the European Central Bank's 2% target. That all but shuts the door on near-term interest rate cuts by the ECB.
====================
  • #6,699
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:11am Apr 17, 2008 3:11am
here is monthly bulliton
happy reading
http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/mobu/mb200804en.pdf
  • #6,700
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:24am Apr 17, 2008 3:24am
Quoting Hammad
okay Guys..
I have smal plan to do long Eu from Daily pivot(1.59 1,5898), Will add more in 1.5870 area.. it wil have to go back to re-test at least 1.5975 and then 1.6 level.
Our daily and weekly indicators still Bullish.
well depends on situation when market will reach at those points. lots of depends on upcoming fundamentals.today we have ZEW news + ECB Monthly Bulletin, which will tell us about inflation.. so will look on those news also..will see what wil be best to do..
Don't follow me
Will attempt longs at 1.5920, adding to 1.5870..
Short term target 1.6000, then 1.6150.
the move can be so brutal, it's typical EUR/USD these days..
I'll wait..because I'm a wimp..
"Building Wealth By Confidence, Consistency, & Compounding"
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