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bringin sexy back - stochastics

  • #1,901
  • Apr 14, 2008 11:21am Apr 14, 2008 11:21am
Hi, Melpheos

Thanks a lot.

You're the kindest !

Every thing is allright now.

Best regards

BBF
BigBlackfeet Always on the(forex) war path !
  • #1,902
  • Apr 15, 2008 6:51am Apr 15, 2008 6:51am
melpheos
pls do me this favour by explaining to me how you read and use that your setting of 422 201010 ... in takng trades
it seems i like it.
yhanks for your time
Quoting melpheos
I allmost did that on the previous trade (taken @ 10:15, posted 10:30 )

The previous trade was taken @ 14:19 (my time GMT+1) if you need the timestamp

It was a bit early but successfully took the bottom (i remind you that i have a failure rate of 70% on this kind of trade )

BTW, compare my last trade with this trade http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1860

When you get to understand price action, you can sometime take trade before the market even know that it will continue the trend (and you can also sometime fail miserably :-/ )
  • #1,903
  • Apr 15, 2008 9:00am Apr 15, 2008 9:00am
Iīm a bit surprised. Since trading live every entry was a bad one .

This trade openend at 12:00 is now -40. all 4H signals before were great

What did i do wrong ?

Longer term stoch is narrowed, but maybe the 5 will make itīs way down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: badluck2.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,904
  • Edited 11:43am Apr 15, 2008 10:37am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting DanFX
Iīm a bit surprised. Since trading live every entry was a bad one .

This trade openend at 12:00 is now -40. all 4H signals before were great

What did i do wrong ?

Longer term stoch is narrowed, but maybe the 5 will make itīs way down.
Here are some screenshot i took for GY.

Everyone try to look at them and see the difference between the trade DanFX took (which looked good by the stoch but missing something very important )

Edit the picture and put circles around entries that you think would be ok according to the rules and i will tell you if it's right or wrong.

Edit : btw no trade for me today.

Edit2 : i forgot to say that DanFx trade could go right or wrong (more likely wrong than right ) and in my case i would not have entered this trade. In any case, having -40pips on a H4 trade is not uncommon at all in particular on Yen pairs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GY15-1.PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GY15-2.PNG Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GY15-3.PNG Size: 33 KB
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  • #1,905
  • Apr 15, 2008 11:29am Apr 15, 2008 11:29am
aaaah, yes, a pop quiz/test! Thx Melpheos, I will get right on this over my lunch break. Should I post my edits here or private message them so as to not influence anyone else?
  • #1,906
  • Apr 15, 2008 11:45am Apr 15, 2008 11:45am
Quoting soce
aaaah, yes, a pop quiz/test! Thx Melpheos, I will get right on this over my lunch break. Should I post my edits here or private message them so as to not influence anyone else?
maybe in PM and i will post the responses later this week ?
  • #1,907
  • Apr 15, 2008 11:55am Apr 15, 2008 11:55am
Hi all,

Pls see attached chart on GBPJPY.

Is this setup good to go SHORT ??

Pls advice.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #1,908
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:04pm Apr 15, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting Blue bottle
Hi all,

Pls see attached chart on GBPJPY.

Is this setup good to go SHORT ??

Pls advice.
Just based on this setup it would be a short but you have to look on the other time frame to see where you are.
  • #1,909
  • Edited 2:16pm Apr 15, 2008 1:18pm | Edited 2:16pm
Melpheos, this seems to have worked just attaching it here. Let me know if you have any troubles viewing this.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc melpheos.doc   682 KB | 929 downloads
  • #1,910
  • Apr 15, 2008 2:01pm Apr 15, 2008 2:01pm
you can post pictures on http://www.imagevenue.com/ and send me the links
  • #1,911
  • Apr 16, 2008 10:08am Apr 16, 2008 10:08am
melpheos, did you get a chance to review my trades yet?
  • #1,912
  • Apr 17, 2008 2:01am Apr 17, 2008 2:01am
Hi guys ,did not write here for a long time

i read ur post and realize many of u trade with small TF , i would like to show u nice example how important is to chech 2,3 BIGGER TimeFrames before entry !!!

Looks at pictures and see what u see on 4H :
it looks like nice SELL SETUP , strong down trend (blue and red sts)
and 4,2,2 will revers and did it.
1H looks nice too (did not attached)

BUT ... without checking how bigger TF (1 Day) looks we would have a big loss .

Now check 1D tf and see why it happened.
Mostly (not always) bigger tf is stronger and more probably.
In result it was at least 300 pips in long positions
and compare it with 4h setup u see.

So always conside 2,3 time frames before enter a trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej_forum.jpg Size: 157 KB
  • #1,913
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:56am Apr 17, 2008 3:56am
Quoting soce
melpheos, did you get a chance to review my trades yet?
For some of the signal you marked and i have not corrected i would definitly have to look the other TF (on your file i just looked at the signal and the price action but in real life i would have remove even more signal)

Try to see why i have removed some good looking signals...

Quoting oleevier
Hi guys ,did not write here for a long time

i read ur post and realize many of u trade with small TF , i would like to show u nice example how important is to chech 2,3 BIGGER TimeFrames before entry !!!

Looks at pictures and see what u see on 4H :
it looks like nice SELL SETUP , strong down trend (blue and red sts)
and 4,2,2 will revers and did it.
1H looks nice too (did not attached)

BUT ... without checking how bigger TF (1 Day) looks we would have a big loss .

Now check 1D tf and see why it happened.
Mostly (not always) bigger tf is stronger and more probably.
In result it was at least 300 pips in long positions
and compare it with 4h setup u see.

So always conside 2,3 time frames before enter a trade
You are absolutely right
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc melpheos-2.doc   683 KB | 1,066 downloads
  • #1,914
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:18am Apr 17, 2008 4:18am
Hi Melpheos,

Somehow i cant open yr melpheos.doc attachement.

Is anyone facing the same problem?

Cheers
  • #1,915
  • Apr 17, 2008 5:50am Apr 17, 2008 5:50am
Quoting cheongho
Hi Melpheos,

Somehow i cant open yr melpheos.doc attachement.

Is anyone facing the same problem?

Cheers
just tested, seems ok
  • #1,916
  • Apr 17, 2008 8:39am Apr 17, 2008 8:39am
Melpheos, thanks for the feedback. I totally see that my #1 trade on the second chart was just flat out WRONG and I have NO CLUE why I put that there. But for the others I have to say that I am not seeing it. I am guessing it has to do with the price action not lining up with the stochs but I don't see it. Let me run down through the 5 charts and quickly address the "X's" you made.

Chart 1: I don't see why the X here would be a bad trade as the 20 line is down and the red line is flat. Grant it the red line is on the wrong side of the blue line but other then that it looks nice. Perhaps it is the reason of the red being on the wrong side that you would avoid this trade although I doubt it since you didn't X out others that had the red line in an unideal spot. Waiting on the 50 line to be just right seems really slow so I was simply looking for it to be at least neutral in my decision.

Chart 2: First X was just a flat out horrible decision. I have no idea why I would trade down then the 20 was clearly going UP, my bad.

Chart 3: I see absolutely no reason not to take those trades. I sure wish I did see a reason but I don't. This believe this is probably the exact reason that I am not profitable so far. Please help me OB1! LOL

Chart 4: The only explanation that I have here where perhaps you would avoid it is that price action at this time has moved UP through a resistance point and thus could be in an uptrend and perhaps a different STOCH on a larger TF is the driver here and the current TF is being ignored.

Chart 5: Kind of at a loss here. Not sure why these were all bad. Please let me know so I can avoid these in the future.

Thanks a lot Melpheos. If you could explain why these are bad and why you would avoid these trades I think it would go a long way in helping me and everyone else out. I believe that perhaps there is a MORE to learn by studying signals that you would avoid that are NOT obvious versus looking at charts where you are taking trades. Avoiding the "GREY" trades IMO is the key to making money in this business.
  • #1,917
  • Edited 12:15pm Apr 17, 2008 11:21am | Edited 12:15pm
Alright, after burning nearly 10 % of my act in just 2 weeks i will stop trading live and go back to demo until i get better. I feel thereīs still too much to learn and itīs not a good idea learning on a life acct.

on demo everything was fine and i already understand why. The fact that losses wonīt hurt made me more confident. I often had trades going negative more than 100 pips and waited for them to return. I just canīt do that live. Most bad trades i took would have come back again if i stayed in but i didnīt.

Another bad habit is closing a position at the slightest sign of reversal. I took a good GY today for example: long @ 201.64 and went out +30 after the first negative 15min. candle. A little while later it would have been +100 and +200 now.




I didnīt use stops or target in demotrading but did all discretionary. I have to practice more, until i get a feel for reasonable stops to implement proper MM. Also I need to find a way to keep me away from entering too early to minimize drawdown.
You see.... 2 steps back again and a long way to go. Iīll start learning all over again.

I will also try to look for good setups on bigger TFs. Maybe iīll be more successful with the combination of daily/4H/1H.

@jd: How is your trading going ? I hope you are luckier than me


edit: Look at GY now. If i had only stayed in
  • #1,918
  • Apr 17, 2008 12:15pm Apr 17, 2008 12:15pm
We have all gone through this so don't feel odd or bad in any way. The important thing to do with a demo is to trade it ONLY how you are willing to trade live account. So for example lets say you would never trade a live trade with real cash if you can't set in front of the chart the entire time and watch it, well then don't trade the demo unless you can watch it the entire time.

For me I find that its best to trade a demo according to a written "mechanical" system so that you are reacting to a set of rules when the market moves and not a judgmental bias that you will surely feel as your account goes up and down. IMO, one should have a pre-game plan for every trade before they enter. Stuff like: how long do i want to stay in this trade if there is little to no movement? why am i making this trade and what has history taught me about how quickly i should be in the worlds money.

what I am getting at is when trading stochs you have to really be sensitive to time because if you enter on a stoch signal and there is little to no market reaction to the stoch indicators then be careful how long you stay in the trade because they stochs will roll over on you and go the other way. IMO, keep asking yourself after every new candle closes would i want to take this trade now? if you are not in the worlds money and the answer goes from a YES to a NO get out or seriously look for a price where to exit.

of course these are just my observations and i haven't made a single dime from the FOREX so take anything I say with that in mind.
  • #1,919
  • Apr 17, 2008 3:02pm Apr 17, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting soce
Melpheos, thanks for the feedback. I totally see that my #1 trade on the second chart was just flat out WRONG and I have NO CLUE why I put that there. But for the others I have to say that I am not seeing it. I am guessing it has to do with the price action not lining up with the stochs but I don't see it. Let me run down through the 5 charts and quickly address the "X's" you made.

Chart 1: I don't see why the X here would be a bad trade as the 20 line is down and the red line is flat. Grant it the red line is on the wrong side of the blue line but other then that it looks nice. Perhaps it is the reason of the red being on the wrong side that you would avoid this trade although I doubt it since you didn't X out others that had the red line in an unideal spot. Waiting on the 50 line to be just right seems really slow so I was simply looking for it to be at least neutral in my decision.

Chart 2: First X was just a flat out horrible decision. I have no idea why I would trade down then the 20 was clearly going UP, my bad.

Chart 3: I see absolutely no reason not to take those trades. I sure wish I did see a reason but I don't. This believe this is probably the exact reason that I am not profitable so far. Please help me OB1! LOL

Chart 4: The only explanation that I have here where perhaps you would avoid it is that price action at this time has moved UP through a resistance point and thus could be in an uptrend and perhaps a different STOCH on a larger TF is the driver here and the current TF is being ignored.

Chart 5: Kind of at a loss here. Not sure why these were all bad. Please let me know so I can avoid these in the future.

Thanks a lot Melpheos. If you could explain why these are bad and why you would avoid these trades I think it would go a long way in helping me and everyone else out. I believe that perhaps there is a MORE to learn by studying signals that you would avoid that are NOT obvious versus looking at charts where you are taking trades. Avoiding the "GREY" trades IMO is the key to making money in this business.
I'll give you a hint : Fibs retracement
  • #1,920
  • Apr 17, 2008 8:05pm Apr 17, 2008 8:05pm
Quoting melpheos
I'll give you a hint : Fibs retracement
Hmmm, so looking back through these it looks like you knock them out for the following reasons in no particular order:

a) if price is stuck in trading range you will wait for a breakout and then a retracement back. it also appears that you are looking for more then 1 candle of consolidation.

b) if the retracement is more then the .386 or .50 of the last swing you pass?

I am kind of baffled actually as the trade you added seems similar to me to others that you have Xed out. Please explain if you would what you mean by fibo retracement or let me know if I am correct above. It seems to me that you like the breakout first (this is good because it gives better chance that price will actually move) and then you want a pull back to the .386 or somewhere before entering (this is also good as it seems to lower the chances that they next candle will go against you.

It seems that if you wait for price to pull back to the .386 to .500 of last swing and then stochs roll around for you, if prices doesn't move for you pretty quickly then it is smart to just get out.

Am I onto something here?
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