DislikedUSDCHF..so far 40+pips
USDJPY 30+pips
EURAUD 40+pips
excellent day..
pidIgnored
1.7115
+68pips!
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Powerful Fib Based System - by DAZfx
- #630
- Edited 12:19am Apr 16, 2008 12:05am | Edited 12:19am
Anybody for GBP/JPY short on the 4 hr? Just waiting for the stochs to hook down...
But, I would think twice before making any medium term {4H} commitments with this pair. Because from a technical perspective, you have reversal candles {doji} on the daily and Stochs starting to hook up from the oversold region. 198.00/10 level has strong support.
However, you do have the Weekly inside bar and the current week's candle testing its low {strong support region}. Weekly --> bearish.
Pound is very weak atm, so that gives added confidence to go short upon a breach of the support.
Daily --> Indecisive
Weekly --> Bearish
Just my 2pips
- #631
- Apr 16, 2008 2:32am Apr 16, 2008 2:32am
Anybody for GBP/JPY short on the 4 hr? Just waiting for the stochs to hook down...
Left some 40+ pips on the table, but I am not complaining.
- #633
- Apr 22, 2008 11:45am Apr 22, 2008 11:45am
- #635
- Edited 11:07am Apr 23, 2008 10:52am | Edited 11:07am
- Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Dopey Bastard | 1,568 Posts
Hi Daz,
I just found this thread yesterday. I'm a long time user of Fibs. Your system is similar to DiNapoli's work in many ways. He also uses multiple fib targets with great success.
I'd like to contribute a few of things, if you don't mind.
Try putting up the 88.6 Fib Retracement. You'll find that those overshoots on the 78.6 are hitting the 88.6 to the pip. The great majority of the time it'll be the wick that hits it, it's rare for the close to hit it. In fact, it it closes at the 88.6, you're going to see it continue on it's way to the 100 retracement more often than not.
Different pairs have different characteristics when it comes to fibs. For example, the GBP will hit the 127.2 expansion quite often while the Eur tends to turn around at the 100 expansion. I imagine you've internalized this already. For others, they should keep records of what pair does what, it is valuable information.
Finally, Fibs work across time as well. You state that you prefer 4-10 bars for your setups. The fib numbers of 5, 8, and 13 are worth looking at. So that a retracement that seems to terminate on the 5th bar is probably the one. However, I wouldn't bet any money just on this alone, but it's a nice addition to the confluence of events that lead to a setup.
Look at today's Eur hourly. The high of 6018 to the low of 5968 is 8 bars, not counting the initial bar. Then the next high 5997 is 3 bars, not counting the initial bar (and 3 is a fib number). The very next bar made the same high and then turned bearish.
Great work.
I just found this thread yesterday. I'm a long time user of Fibs. Your system is similar to DiNapoli's work in many ways. He also uses multiple fib targets with great success.
I'd like to contribute a few of things, if you don't mind.
Try putting up the 88.6 Fib Retracement. You'll find that those overshoots on the 78.6 are hitting the 88.6 to the pip. The great majority of the time it'll be the wick that hits it, it's rare for the close to hit it. In fact, it it closes at the 88.6, you're going to see it continue on it's way to the 100 retracement more often than not.
Different pairs have different characteristics when it comes to fibs. For example, the GBP will hit the 127.2 expansion quite often while the Eur tends to turn around at the 100 expansion. I imagine you've internalized this already. For others, they should keep records of what pair does what, it is valuable information.
Finally, Fibs work across time as well. You state that you prefer 4-10 bars for your setups. The fib numbers of 5, 8, and 13 are worth looking at. So that a retracement that seems to terminate on the 5th bar is probably the one. However, I wouldn't bet any money just on this alone, but it's a nice addition to the confluence of events that lead to a setup.
Look at today's Eur hourly. The high of 6018 to the low of 5968 is 8 bars, not counting the initial bar. Then the next high 5997 is 3 bars, not counting the initial bar (and 3 is a fib number). The very next bar made the same high and then turned bearish.
Great work.
Hi David,
Its 12:33am here in the UK, but I will try my best to answer your questions.
1) The ideal setup is when the levels are touched to the pip, or when they are tested (candle close inside the levels). Then you have the setups where the candle is a few pips short of the levels. If you keep your AB waves short (4-10 candles) by moving to the appropriate TFs, you will be surprised at how often price respects these levels, especially when its moving with the longer term trend. Price could go beyond 78.6, but it should close below the level.
2) Yes, the hook up/down should happen either in the Confirmation Candle or the Entry Candle.
3) Looking back at my initial post, I can see I haven't made it very clear. Its Target 3.
4) When I first came up with this strategy, I moved stop to b/e upon hitting target 1. The problem with that is price will hit my entry point and continue moving in my direction taking out the other targets. This happens much frequently than price reversing at target 1.
5) 15/20 winning trades. 3/20 hit stop. 2/20 hit stop after hitting Target 1. All based on trades taken on the hourly time frame and mostly following the rules.
As you quite nicely said, this is just a ballpark idea, I don't want to mislead anyone.
Having said all this, the Entry, Exit rules are what I follow (My emotions do get the better of me sometimes) and not a requirement for this system to work effectively. I am sure there are better entry/exit strategies out there.
I hope I have answered your questions to your satisfaction.
-DAZ-
- #637
- Apr 23, 2008 12:14pm Apr 23, 2008 12:14pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Nov 2007 | 1,296 Posts
What has happened to DAZfx,
has he been abducted by aliens?
Hi all, everybody has been longing to see the return of Daz... I think we will see more of Daz by next week but in meantime, we should keep posting our entries on the thread.
Thanks