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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #61
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:48am Apr 10, 2008 5:48am
Quoting jackt
Hi Feb,

Got a questions. How to tell a trend is likely to continue?

jackt
nobody knows for sure....Trading is a game of probabilities....it might it might not

If you lose, deal with it...if you win, stay calm and look for the next opportunity.

Peace
Peace
  • #62
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:53am Apr 10, 2008 5:53am
Quoting ozziedave
I see what you're saying. I tried to trade the pullbacks but kept getting killed by jumping in too early. So to clarify when you enter a position in an up trend it is at point 2 after the pullback and the resumption of the up swing.
exactly

here's what I wrote on post #18

"see, the problem I have with pullbacks/retracements is that you can get caught up in the middle of a fire. Also, as we don't know what the market is going to do next, I assume that if the market continues the swing AKA trend now, it's a high probable trade when the market breaks the las swing high and continues."

Peace
Peace
  • #63
  • Apr 10, 2008 6:31am Apr 10, 2008 6:31am
Hi Feb, thanks for starting this thread. I appreciate you wanting to share your knowlege with us.

I have a question regarding initial swing movement.
You say you look for roughly a 30-40 pip movement to signal the start of a swing then wait for a retracement, well what if that initial swing movement was say 100 pips + (like we have just had on the EURUSD). Would this in any way effect your expectation of a continuation of the movement after the swing high was broken?


thanks in advance,

Contango.
  • #64
  • Apr 10, 2008 6:37am Apr 10, 2008 6:37am
Quoting Contango
Hi Feb, thanks for starting this thread. I appreciate you wanting to share your knowlege with us.

I have a question regarding initial swing movement.
You say you look for roughly a 30-40 pip movement to signal the start of a swing then wait for a retracement, well what if that initial swing movement was say 100 pips + (like we have just had on the EURUSD). Would this in any way effect your expectation of a continuation of the movement after the swing high was broken?


thanks in advance,

Contango.
Good question and yes it might affect...especially when you get into news

a big move like this, usually has a counter-trend move which might turn the market the other way. Surprisingly, sometimes it retraces and resumes the original swing. If that happens, ride the wave, 'cause the tide is going to be high for sure. Just stay put and watch the market.

Peace
Peace
  • #65
  • Apr 10, 2008 7:16am Apr 10, 2008 7:16am
On the charts that you've posted, the candles look like Heiken Ashi candles. Am I right, or just seeing things?
  • #66
  • Apr 10, 2008 7:22am Apr 10, 2008 7:22am
Quoting jedsman
On the charts that you've posted, the candles look like Heiken Ashi candles. Am I right, or just seeing things?
Yes they're. I don't use them for a strategy. Just for illustration purposes only

Peace
Peace
  • #67
  • Apr 10, 2008 7:25am Apr 10, 2008 7:25am
Quoting feb2865
Yes they're. I don't use them for a strategy. Just for illustration purposes only

Peace

Illustration for us mere mortals, or to show and confirm trend changes?
  • #68
  • Apr 10, 2008 7:56am Apr 10, 2008 7:56am
Quoting jedsman
Illustration for us mere mortals, or to show and confirm trend changes?
hahahaha that's cool...

no, I use them because they look good......I don't have any bias toward candlesticks, bars etc...

if you want to be consistent in this business here's an advice I got for my mentor on the floor around 1984 " You trade the markets in here and now, mother nature (he was referring to the rest of the market AKA humans and their emotions) will take care of the rest"

Trends swing etc...we don't know for sure how long they're going to live...

who cares??

Don't predict the market. It's a fool's game. If you lose, deal with it. Read my first post. Trail your stops...that's my "secret weapon"

The market hits my 20 ticks stop-loss once in a blue moon. I don't even remember the last time. If I get stopped, I look for an opportunity the other way. Be a player.

Peace
Peace
  • #69
  • Apr 10, 2008 8:02am Apr 10, 2008 8:02am
Quoting feb2865
hahahaha that's cool...

no, I use them because they look good......I don't have any bias toward candlesticks, bars etc...

if you want to be consistent in this business here's an advice I got for my mentor on the floor around 1984 " You trade the markets in here and now, mother nature (he was referring to the rest of the market AKA humans and their emotions) will take care of the rest"

Trends swing etc...we don't know for sure how long they're going to live...

who cares??

Don't predict the market. It's a fool's game. If you lose, deal with it. Read my first post. Trail your stops...that's my "secret weapon"

The market hits my 20 ticks stop-loss once in a blue moon. I don't even remember the last time. If I get stopped, I look for an opportunity the other way. Be a player.

Peace
You make it sound so easy, and I guess when it "clicks" it is! I hope to get the "click" soon.
  • #70
  • Apr 10, 2008 8:16am Apr 10, 2008 8:16am
Thanks feb!

So you trail your stop always pip by pip? If the market went 5 pips in your favor your risk is only 15 pips as you moved your SL?

Regards - Xaron
  • #71
  • Apr 10, 2008 8:38am Apr 10, 2008 8:38am
Quoting jedsman
You make it sound so easy, and I guess when it "clicks" it is! I hope to get the "click" soon.
jed

you got to be in the line of fire. It takes time. That's why I don't believe in hindsight.

Trading is difficult. There's many things that will definitely work against you..



the best you can do is to stacks odds in your favor...let the market come to you.

Takes time and practice

Peace
Peace
  • #72
  • Apr 10, 2008 8:39am Apr 10, 2008 8:39am
Quoting Xaron
Thanks feb!

So you trail your stop always pip by pip? If the market went 5 pips in your favor your risk is only 15 pips as you moved your SL?

Regards - Xaron

yep...that's how I do...actually my platform takes care of that.

Peace
Peace
  • #73
  • Apr 10, 2008 9:16am Apr 10, 2008 9:16am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi findcount,

It's not Feb63 but Teb63 !

Hi Feb,

Nice thread here ! Thanks for enlightening us! Much appreciated.

Bakuli

OOOOOPS...................

hope i didn't offend both Feb and Teb.............:
  • #74
  • Apr 10, 2008 9:39am Apr 10, 2008 9:39am
Quoting feb2865
jed

you got to be in the line of fire. It takes time. That's why I don't believe in hindsight.

Trading is difficult. There's many things that will definitely work against you..



the best you can do is to stacks odds in your favor...let the market come to you.

Takes time and practice

Peace


Hi, Feb... and others who may not have read the other Feb's thread (I strongly suggest you do )

Of course i read this on your other thread (I'm almost finishing my first reading of it... Sure I'll read it all again, cause reinforcement is a great learning method, specially for the "mortals" )

This is some of the most powerful advices (saying better: knowledge...) that I've heard, and I'm trying hard to follow it. DON'T CHASE THE MARKET!. Let it come to you. Chasing is way different of watching carefully...

One question, If I sound too rookie, forgive me please, cause I am (I'm used to trade stocks here in Brazil for a while, but Forex has its own swing, and you are helping me so much to understand it...)

I use the (very lagging) analysis of COT as one of my "ear on the ground" tools, since it can tell us the "footprints" of the big market movers. I just want to know if you consider it useful in some way...

I swear I do not intend to deviate your thread...

Thanks a lot for all your time and willingness to share your knowledge with us!

Greetings from Brazil
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #75
  • Apr 10, 2008 9:49am Apr 10, 2008 9:49am
Quoting HouseTrader




Hi, Feb... and others who may not have read the other Feb's thread (I strongly suggest you do )

Of course i read this on your other thread (I'm almost finishing my first reading of it... Sure I'll read it all again, cause reinforcement is a great learning method, specially for the "mortals" )

This is some of the most powerful advices (saying better: knowledge...) that I've heard, and I'm trying hard to follow it. DON'T CHASE THE MARKET!. Let it come to you. Chasing is way different of watching carefully...

One question, If I sound too rookie, forgive me please, cause I am (I'm used to trade stocks here in Brazil for a while, but Forex has its own swing, and you are helping me so much to understand it...)

I use the (very lagging) analysis of COT as one of my "ear on the ground" tools, since it can tell us the "footprints" of the big market movers. I just want to know if you consider it useful in some way...

I swear I do not intend to deviate your thread...

Thanks a lot for all your time and willingness to share your knowledge with us!

Greetings from Brazil

Hey..no problem..your question is valid

Intermarket relationship is something I use. But is far complex and I was thinking about starting a thread about it but it's really time consuming.

Forex has it's own swing but there's certain situations which goes a tune with the rest of the world, especially the dow jones.

COT is not very good to use it as a benchmark for forex in my humble opinion

Brazil...so beautiful

Peace
Peace
  • #76
  • Apr 10, 2008 10:02am Apr 10, 2008 10:02am
Thanks again!

I'll try to learn some about the intermarket relationships, cause I'm very curious about it, specially when you give it that importance. (of course, that's a subject for another thread... let's not deviate....)

Will be staying around, for sure!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #77
  • Apr 10, 2008 10:10am Apr 10, 2008 10:10am
Here's a trade I just finished like 10-15 minutes ago

notice that I did a re-entry

can anybody tell me why I decide to re-enter at the same spot ??? same price ??

by the way I am using currency futures. The feed it's not the same, but the swings are somehow similar to the spot.

Peace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 04-10-2008.jpg Size: 89 KB
Peace
  • #78
  • Apr 10, 2008 10:44am Apr 10, 2008 10:44am
hi feb
i learnt a lot from your first system.excellent job you do...
i believe you reentered at the same price because the first time it broke you gained 11 pips and stopped out at -9 pips.
so you assumed that the next break would be more powerful.
  • #79
  • Apr 10, 2008 11:06am Apr 10, 2008 11:06am
Another trade

see atachement
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4-10 ANOTHER.jpg Size: 94 KB
Peace
  • #80
  • Apr 10, 2008 11:09am Apr 10, 2008 11:09am
Quoting feb2865

can anybody tell me why I decide to re-enter at the same spot ??? same price ??

Peace
It made a lower high and then turned down again.

Great thread.

Thanks,
Mike
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