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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #41
  • Apr 9, 2008 6:00pm Apr 9, 2008 6:00pm
Feb,

How much of a pullback would you consider too much? You had mentioned earlier that a real deep pullback may result in a weak swing. Thanks!
  • #42
  • Apr 9, 2008 6:30pm Apr 9, 2008 6:30pm
Quoting rochemb
Feb,

How much of a pullback would you consider too much? You had mentioned earlier that a real deep pullback may result in a weak swing. Thanks!

if the pullback goes deeper pass the middle of the swing high/low, there's a possibility of a weak comeback or either a change of direction.

Peace
Peace
  • #43
  • Apr 9, 2008 7:20pm Apr 9, 2008 7:20pm
Hi all, this is my first post at FF an the reason for being so shy is because ENGLISH isnīt mother language but today I make a effort cause I feel i owe something to FEB, you are a very kind person, i am still a newbie, and after reading carefully your first thread i became completely naked even that when i came to you i was only looking to stochastic to spot divergences ( PRICE IS MY ONLY INDICATOR SO I TRADE PRICE NOT INDICATORS)...Iīm getting more consistent as time goes...So really apreciating what you doing here for us, teaching us valuables lessons for free.
Tanks a lot FEB...TAKE CARE...

GOOD TRADING TO ALL...
  • #44
  • Apr 9, 2008 7:31pm Apr 9, 2008 7:31pm
Quoting Thenew
Hi all, this is my first post at FF an the reason for being so shy is because ENGLISH isnīt mother language but today I make a effort cause I feel i owe something to FEB, you are a very kind person, i am still a newbie, and after reading carefully your first thread i became completely naked even that when i came to you i was only looking to stochastic to spot divergences ( PRICE IS MY ONLY INDICATOR SO I TRADE PRICE NOT INDICATORS)...Iīm getting more consistent as time goes...So really apreciating what you doing here for us, teaching us valuables lessons for free.
Tanks a lot FEB...TAKE CARE...

GOOD TRADING TO ALL...
well come to the thread Thanks a lot for your kind words. your English is fine.

Peace
Peace
  • #45
  • Apr 9, 2008 8:33pm Apr 9, 2008 8:33pm
Thanks a lot for your kind words and compliments

I received several private inquires about different subjects and concerns.

Listen

Trading is nothing more thank a game of probabilities. In the true sense of matter, your title is a speculator. You're assuming based on your analysis that the market will move up/down etc. The idea is to be profitable. But you can't make money if you can't master the art of controlling risk.

On the other hand, we can't take risk a risk protection system to the extreme of becoming a chicken with the head cut off. You need to step-in and get the game going.

The game is simple and difficult. Trading is not complicated, trust me. Especially when you learn to read the market properly, which is my intention here. The difficult part comes out of emotions and risk. Pulling the trigger based on your calculations is simple.

Losing is a big problem for a trader. Many traders are looking for this game to be their bread and butter. Their sole source of income. So when you lose, especially on a live account, all this burden comes to your head..." trading is not worth it" I am wasting my time here" etc etc Some others, come to this business, lured by the promise of quick wealth and the "forex is a 1.5 trillion market" mentality. This makes you feel like you're in a big pool of money and for any move you make, there will be always money at the reach of your hands..oh please!

If you could change your perspective, at least for one day, I assure you that the whole mentality will change, just to look a things from a different angle. Read carefully

The only way you will be successful in this business is:

1) to learn how to read the market properly
2) to manage your risk accordingly
3)to understand that this is a long race. Not a sprint.

Stay focused on this rules, if we can call it that way.

The rest will come to it's own.

Peace
Peace
  • #46
  • Apr 9, 2008 8:59pm Apr 9, 2008 8:59pm
Feb
just question : do you take counter trend trades as well on 5 min and 15 min tf? i have learnt a lot from yr other thread which i applied to my trading and now i trade commodities, indexes and currencies as per this simple system. thanks a lot.
Regards
  • #47
  • Apr 9, 2008 9:09pm Apr 9, 2008 9:09pm
Quoting kenneith
Feb
just question : do you take counter trend trades as well on 5 min and 15 min tf? i have learnt a lot from yr other thread which i applied to my trading and now i trade commodities, indexes and currencies as per this simple system. thanks a lot.
Regards
Thanks for the compliments. I always feel happy whenever I can help a fellow trader

Counter trend trades, if we're talking about counter-trading is the sense of using it as a strategy, yes, sometimes. But I do that on indices mostly. If I turn the other way around and trade the counter-swing in case I get stopped on this particular strategy, yes...as long as I can qualify a move, I am on it.

Peace
Peace
  • #48
  • Apr 9, 2008 9:29pm Apr 9, 2008 9:29pm
Thanks very much, Feb. Somehow and for sometime I trade like your 20/20 rules so as to tackle my "fear and greed" problem during the up and down movement after entry. I have two questions that always affect my decisions time after time and hope you can kindly help.

1. Entry at 2-3 ticks after breaking former high/low. I always have the fear that the price may retrace all of a sudden and becomes a false break at the point. So I tend to wait for a further pullback after the break. But then for many occasions, the price runs too fast that I dare not to chase again, or it already reach another resistence level (say e.g. after round 15-20 ticks).

2. So for sometime I want to enter at some earlier point before the break. Say if I trade off 5mins chart, when it has formed a high and retraced. I will wait until the 1min chart to resume the uptrend and form higher high on 1min, so as to enter before the break of the former high on 5min chart. It's something like Trader Vic's 2B setup.

Or do you think I should "Keep it Simple", and just stick with the 20/20(40) rule, let the market prove my decision right or wrong. And if my probability judgement is right in the long run, I should have more gains than loss.

Thanks very much in advance.

Regards,
pipal
  • #49
  • Apr 9, 2008 9:36pm Apr 9, 2008 9:36pm
Quoting pipal
Or do you think I should "Keep it Simple", and just stick with the 20/20(40) rule, let the market prove my decision right or wrong. And if my probability judgement is right in the long run, I should have more gains than loss.

Here's the answer above.

Just remember two things

1) Don't you ever believe because you had a winner one day, you got it made..again you're here for the long haul

2) If you get a loss, just deal with it..again you're here for the long haul and the markets will be there..always.

Peace
Peace
  • #50
  • Apr 9, 2008 10:07pm Apr 9, 2008 10:07pm
Many thanks, Feb. I also learnt much before from your previous system "The System". Thanks again.

I strongly agree with your advice. When I make it complicated, thinking this and that, these and those, I just screw things up and make me "win less, and lose more". But to me, mindsets are more difficult to change than skills to learn or improve.

I have done some research on average range on different timeframes and sessons. I can see there are quite a few 20-40 ranges in any day/session.

Regards,
pipal
  • #51
  • Apr 10, 2008 3:03am Apr 10, 2008 3:03am
Quoting feb2865
Fibonacci Retracement is a powerful trading yet little understood for many people.

But in my own very biased and personal style of trading, I don't like to sit on my butt waiting for the market to retrace back to 38/61/78 % in order to place a trade. Even for a heads up warning, I don't need any of that. Suffice to say that I spotted a swing high and a failure (pullback ) for me to start looking and positioning myself on the market. I trade as naked as possible...only two lines will do the work..trust me

But for those who wants to use fibo's please listen closely

Don't put any weight on what level the market is retracing. Based your view only on how shallow/deep the retracement is. If you notice the market pulling back real deep and then coming back to the original move, chances are, the swing is a weak one.

Stay tuned

Peace
Hi Feb

This post is a little confusing to me. If I understand you correctly an impulse wave or swing should be 30-40 pips give or take a pip. You state that "you don't like to sit on your butt waiting for a pullback to 38/61/78% in order to place a trade". If you are in an up trend don't you have to wait until price retraces to whatever level before it goes up and passes point B in an A-B up swing? I just found that statement to be a bit confusing.
  • #52
  • Apr 10, 2008 3:18am Apr 10, 2008 3:18am
hi Feb (Fab)

i've read your original 'the system ' 3 times over regarding entering on recovery from pullbacks and certainly while more profitable since i'm entering at a better price it's riskier since it could lead to a lower high (in uptrend) or higher low (in downtrend) and an eventual reversal of the prior trend.

your 'new' method is much safer though profit is less. the downside is that even if a double top or bottom is avoided, the new swing may still result in a loss if the trend don't run quite a bit more since the stoploss is under/above the previous low/high but still, safer is always better.

there's another Feb here (feb63) with his very interesting 'world's simplest system' where he's also using a very similar entry with a 200ema helping in an earlier entry back into the main trend.

in your original thread, you also mentioned you were trading off daily charts and would go down to 4hour chart looking for a 'discount' so have you changed to a much lower timeframe now ?
  • #53
  • Apr 10, 2008 3:49am Apr 10, 2008 3:49am
Quoting feb2865
Hello
PD: this is price only thread. Not snake-moving lines allowed.
Hi nice idea great thread! Lets put these eight new sexy indicators on the charts, draw 31 trend lines and build an EA in 3 days!! And and and... oh boy! Have I got ideas lol! Sorry Feb, nice thread

Can we have at least three moving averages please?
  • #54
  • Apr 10, 2008 3:56am Apr 10, 2008 3:56am
Quoting findcount
hi Feb (Fab)

......there's another Feb here (feb63) with his very interesting 'world's simplest system' where he's also using a very similar entry with a 200ema helping in an earlier entry back into the main trend.
Hi findcount,

It's not Feb63 but Teb63 !

Hi Feb,

Nice thread here ! Thanks for enlightening us! Much appreciated.

Bakuli
  • #55
  • Apr 10, 2008 4:53am Apr 10, 2008 4:53am
I've read many threads which discuss various ways of trading, and I think this is one of the best in terms of simplicity and ease. Your style reminds me of Jacko's trading methods.

One thing however that I find difficult to grasp is how to spot the patterns when they are forming. A lot of methods use charts to show how price action took place after the fact and show where the changes occured. Is it possible to discuss your method, but from the right side of the screen as the price is being written?
  • #56
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:09am Apr 10, 2008 5:09am
Hi Feb,

Got a questions. How to tell a trend is likely to continue?

jackt
  • #57
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:34am Apr 10, 2008 5:34am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Feb

This post is a little confusing to me. If I understand you correctly an impulse wave or swing should be 30-40 pips give or take a pip. You state that "you don't like to sit on your butt waiting for a pullback to 38/61/78% in order to place a trade". If you are in an up trend don't you have to wait until price retraces to whatever level before it goes up and passes point B in an A-B up swing? I just found that statement to be a bit confusing.

Ok

I was talking about trading on the pullback itself like many Fibonacci traders do

Peace
Peace
  • #58
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:39am Apr 10, 2008 5:39am
Quoting feb2865
Ok

I was talking about trading on the pullback itself like many Fibonacci traders do

Peace
I see what you're saying. I tried to trade the pullbacks but kept getting killed by jumping in too early. So to clarify when you enter a position in an up trend it is at point 2 after the pullback and the resumption of the up swing.
  • #59
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:41am Apr 10, 2008 5:41am
Quoting findcount
hi Feb (Fab)

i've read your original 'the system ' 3 times over regarding entering on recovery from pullbacks and certainly while more profitable since i'm entering at a better price it's riskier since it could lead to a lower high (in uptrend) or higher low (in downtrend) and an eventual reversal of the prior trend.

your 'new' method is much safer though profit is less. the downside is that even if a double top or bottom is avoided, the new swing may still result in a loss if the trend don't run quite a bit more since the stoploss is under/above the previous low/high but still, safer is always better.

there's another Feb here (feb63) with his very interesting 'world's simplest system' where he's also using a very similar entry with a 200ema helping in an earlier entry back into the main trend.

in your original thread, you also mentioned you were trading off daily charts and would go down to 4hour chart looking for a 'discount' so have you changed to a much lower timeframe now ?
Yes, the possibility of losing is there. As with any other method. Just look at my first post on this thread....losing is part of this business. But if you apply this method religiously, you should come ahead

I trade in many ways, and yes I still use daily charts. I hedge my position a lot to offset risk. I also do a lil' scalping here and there and I also counter-trade moves. It all depends.

Peace
Peace
  • #60
  • Apr 10, 2008 5:46am Apr 10, 2008 5:46am
Quoting jedsman
I've read many threads which discuss various ways of trading, and I think this is one of the best in terms of simplicity and ease. Your style reminds me of Jacko's trading methods.

One thing however that I find difficult to grasp is how to spot the patterns when they are forming. A lot of methods use charts to show how price action took place after the fact and show where the changes occured. Is it possible to discuss your method, but from the right side of the screen as the price is being written?

I am no sure what you're looking for but I'll do my best

In terms of the swing, they have to be formed already with 30-40 pips and the pullback has to be on it's way before you start placing a stop order The "pattern" as you said, has to be formed already.

Peace.
Peace
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