EURUSD

Yes we are . And join the club, the water's nice...

yeah down EU

Yeah, time to faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall ! I hope..

This is my current view. Price on 4hr chart shows uptrend. Price on 5m chart shows that momentum is weakening and price is compressing. Because of 4h chart, you could expect price to break to the upside, but since this is Friday, I doubt you will see a break either way. Price will move around a little as people close positions for the end of the week, but positions are most likely split pretty even betweens longs and shorts right now, so I don't expect any big moves in either direction.

I don't know what shows that it'll go up now, but I wouldn't rule out a short but nasty rally upwards that will mess up all the many people who went short recently. Would be a great opportunity to add shorts near 59. Fortunetly I'm in small for now and my SL is above 1.6 so someone will have to try REALLY hard to get that one...

i dont have any single short indicatio.. but have few long indicators right now...
though soon in 1 week or so i expect a reversal...

just cant see it now.

Hi all,

let's see also how the data for the COT committment for this week show up so that we'll find out how the institutional speculators and traders are positioned . the data will be due in about 10 minutes on the CFTC website.

I still believe that the larger trend is down for the EURUSD and I hope we'll see 1.50 in one month time but we'll see how the actual evolution will be.

Currently, my view is that the EURUSD has trouble both going up or going down so we are basically in a trendless environment on the daily charts.

My bias is still for down-trend so I'll if I will be able to capture some movement, if not I will get out of my short at 1.58 or so and re-evaluate.

Also, I was able to witness today the NFP and I couldn't resist the "adrenaline" of trading the news. Not a good idea and I lost about 5% of my acc

Another lesson learned...

Have a nice weekend all,

Bogdan

Extremely rewarding if you let the good ones run long enough.

Or have a high success rate system with 1:1 or better risk to reward..
Letting winners run when the trade size is just a few pips didn't work for me, there's a limmit to how close one can trail stop the price effectively.

BGrigore that's unfortunate about the news, make sure you have good mm if you try it again (like 1%-2% max risk for me, though it's subjective of course).
With fixed spreads of 2-3 a 5-6 pip SL for example or entry orders at 5 pips if you really expect high impact (though I haven't tried the latter and who knows I heard orders might not work well with different brokers during the news) it's reasonable risk when you expect to catch much bigger moves on major news. Another thing I'm gonna try testing from next week is to enter trades in the direction the price is moving about 20-30 seconds before a major release - in the real world things are rearely clean and fair and I believe I've been noticing more moves in the right direction than in the wrong one right before important news, I'll test in on demo for a while and see what happens.

Where do you guys find good news releases? Free or by subscription? I know about FF calendar and all, but sometimes I observe huge movements, only to wonder where it came from....

BGrigore, What is NFP?

Hi Jurassic,

I think I will definetely implement the 1-2% rule you mentioned in the future and maybe not even trade the news at all.

I am mostly a technical trader but today I finished the dayjob early and was able to be at home when the announcment took place. The potential $$$ to be won kept flying through my head, my greed kicked in and I was into the whirlwind unfortunately...

Also I took a look on the COT CFTC website and it looks that EUR longs are still in place...maybe the EURUSD will still continue upwards after all? As I said, I believe it will eventually do down but the fact that the big players have their money on the other way around makes me wonder I must say.

We'll see how it works out after all in the coming days and weeks.

Question: can you find a job as a trader / money manager after retail trading for a while with a record to back you up or must we trade individually after all.

Or how do funds do it, they have everything programmed and all into computers, etc. I wasn't able to get even to an interview for this type of job and it's a bit frustrating as I am trading a small/ mini account and it would take me a while (10 years or so, if I can double yearly, which is very very very hard to be done in real life and is not even done by professional money managers so I'm pretty realistic about that). So it's a bit frustrating from this point of view.

Thanks and all the best,

Bogdan

Hi, Classic,

are you joking about the NFP or is it for real? Anyway, if it's for real I'm talking about the Non-Farm Payrolls, one of the most important economic releases for each month, due in the first Friday of the month, each month.

It shows the number of job creation or job losses in the US economy, the largest in the world. The data for today was -80k vs. -60K expeced to the economy actually lost 80K jobs.

Even though you might be a chartist, do use the FF calendar which is provided in order to keep an eye on the most important news that are due and there you can expect volatility. The most important releases are market red, the medium are orange and the less important are market yellow.

Also, in case of news be prepared for the market to react unexpectadly, for example the EURUSD rallied and then it sank to almost the same levels prior to the news even though the US lost 80k jobs. You have to consider the actual levels versus expectations and the fact that the graphics discount the news most of the time.

Hope it helps,

Bogdan

Several places to look on the web for news. Bloomberg, FXstreet, DailyFX of the better ones IMO. The FF calendar is good for releases. NFP is Nonfarm Payroll. If you click on the little folder icon on the FF calendar it will give you a little background info about that economic release too.

Okay, getting close to week end so I took profit on the second half of my long position at 1.5736 because that was my 23.6 fib level. Not a bad day. Maybe do some trading on Sunday if anything looks promising. Have a nice weekend everybody. May the pips come your way.

This is what I do around NFP every month and why...
Also, in case of news be prepared for the market to react unexpectadly, for example the EURUSD rallied and then it sank to almost the same levels prior to the news even though the US lost 80k jobs. It went up and back down for a reason. Reason it went up was banks widening spread and because there was most likely a large spread b/t bid and asks at this time. It took 10-15 mins for the market to come back to the level it was at before the announcement. Just goes to show you that the number wasnt much different from the number the market had already factored in. This happens a lot with relatively small deviations from the actual number. I went long when it came back to 1.57 after the market had calmed down a little. Knowing the news was still bad for the $ and that it would continue to work its way up to the top of the spike. Got out around 1.5740 when it looked like it would not continue higher. It is so much easier to trade the news 10 to 15 mins after the number comes out. Good luck to all that try and trade right at 830.

Hope it helps,

Bogdan[/quote]

Are you kidding? No offense, honestly... Let us think about this in a mathematical fashion. There are 52 weeks in a year, let's just call it 50 for the sake of working with round numbers. If you were to trade your full account value and make just 2 pips per week, you would double up every year. If that means withdrawing from your account to reduce risk exposure, so be it. It is not that difficult at all, it's just a matter of waiting for those perfect opportunities where your trading platform BID/ASK lags another chart you're looking at, and you can see a price jump/drop on the other chart while your trading platform gives you a lagging quote that will produce instant profit. Just to prove a point, here is a summary of my trading in the last 3 weeks, since I didn't start trading this year until March.

Summary information
Start-up balance
963.80
Commission
0.00
Realized Profit/Loss
1,187.30
Deposit
0.00
Withdrawal
881.00
Current balance
1,270.10
Day Profit/Loss
0.00
Equity
1,270.10
Used margin
0.00
Available margin
1,270.10

It's as simple as taking profit when you see it, whether it's 1 pip or 100. I'm not saying this is for everyone, but I don't consider myself an "expert" by any means and I can do this on a very regular basis... Hope this helps!

Took profit on half the small short, chances to reload higher later do look good..

BGrigore, if you're aiming at 200% yearly then 1%-2% for a single news report may be a bit too much maybe ?
Have no idea about trading jobs, I have no formal economics education anyway nor do I wish to have one or be employed in the field (my gf studies economics and she doesn't like forex or trading ). I'd rather earn good money for myself than mess with someone else's. I believe one can make a lot more than that in forex and do so consistently and I'm working on testing a number of strategies that seem to work well (unlike the 5 bucks on marketiva that I turned to 18 last week and now back to 7+ in the last two days.. ) but since I'm thorough I want to make lots more trades using them to be sure first and have the numbers justify me. All of them btw (except the basic trading of a big trend or this news thing I wanna try) are for the E/U 1m charts and based on very simple and basic rules that any trader knows but maybe not all considered how to take advatage of or formalized all the rules to only take the really good ones. Some time later maye after I finish my tests and trade them with real money for a while I'll post it on the forums. I believe the answer is out there..

Have a great weekend all

hahahaha that actually works ? From what I've seen if you try taking trades with oanda that supposedly lag they still fill you with the final price you saw earlier, plus who knows which broker lags and which is right.. Well, that's cool anyway, good luck with that PP

Thanks guys, sorry, Im just not used to the lingo yet I know that NFP is a very important, just didnt realize what it stood for. Thanks a ton.

Classic,
No problem. FF is a great place to learn and ask questions. We were all new it once.