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  • #6,221
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:06pm Apr 3, 2008 1:06pm
Quoting Firstboss
added short at the daily central (1.5684), and at GBP/USD daily pivot (1.9963)
Not sure about a short here either. I have a 23.6 fib at 5661. I would expect a bounce up for a scalp.
  • #6,222
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:07pm Apr 3, 2008 1:07pm
Quoting Firstboss
FXGenius, I am range-scalping for 10-20 pips in this dead market before the start of the Asian session. As for the up-trend I expect it to resume 2-3 hours before the NFP announcement
OK, I just about killed my account going against the trend and am just trying to help others from doing the same if I can. Not everybody reads or sees what it is doing, myself included before. Good scalping.
  • #6,223
  • Apr 3, 2008 2:14pm Apr 3, 2008 2:14pm
Price broke the small triangle, base was 30 pips, I figure if it goes below 650 next stop is 620.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #6,224
  • Apr 3, 2008 2:25pm Apr 3, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting ainars777
Monthly pivot 1.5603
Mine says 1.5612. I guess difference in broker price feed.


All the pivots are getting close together. Never looked at all 3 at the same time. So I don't know what it signifies, except ranged could continue.

It could revolve around these pivots at this level for months or days, with false breaks, and funny wave formations. And only after its done and moves away, will we see a pattern, and say, "o yea, thats what that was."

So now getting caught by weekly pivot and stalled.
  • #6,225
  • Apr 3, 2008 2:27pm Apr 3, 2008 2:27pm
Quoting Fx_Genius
OK, I just about killed my account going against the trend and am just trying to help others from doing the same if I can. Not everybody reads or sees what it is doing, myself included before. Good scalping.
The problem was you not knowing when to get out. Or if the required s/l is too big (account breaker) don't trade. But it was easy to see when news hit and it was $ neg to close any shorts. I took a loss, but not much. Got back on $chf.
  • #6,226
  • Apr 3, 2008 2:47pm Apr 3, 2008 2:47pm
hi colleagues
Today I didn't take any trades on eur usd... because I shorted gbpjpy... as it was on a critical level (daily trendline) .. it went perfect... but I was greedy... and it recovered.. and it has been ranging all the day.... at least it was not a negative trade... but all the day wasted in a ranging session...

so... I missed a nice opportunity on eurusd.... but right now I don't know where euro will go... because last high... 1.5385... was a bit less than previous high... and I need it to break it to go long... I don't see a clear direction right now...
  • #6,227
  • Apr 3, 2008 3:16pm Apr 3, 2008 3:16pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
The problem was you not knowing when to get out. Or if the required s/l is too big (account breaker) don't trade. But it was easy to see when news hit and it was $ neg to close any shorts. I took a loss, but not much. Got back on $chf.
Hindsight is always 20/20. I used to think, "It will turn around", "It can't possibly go any higher". Now I wait until I am very sure (sometime waiting to long, gun shy?) and have had minimal losses and am currently up 60+ pips with SL just below pivot should net me about 48 pips if it trips. Could have been bigger, (140 pips?) but I would rather be up 60 than down like I have been before. The rebuilding has begun. The road to forex riches starts with a single pip. And what a long road it is from down here!

David, your charts and insight (along with a few others, Kevin & Hammond) have helped me with to develop my own (and somehow very similar but different) charts that are starting to work for me. Even if I don't trade, my charts and calls are more right than wrong. I have tossed out most of the indicators I had used in the past as they didn't help and only interfered with what the market was actually doing. This might be the cheapest education with the most potential gain I have ever gotten. Thanks to all for contributing.
  • #6,228
  • Apr 3, 2008 3:19pm Apr 3, 2008 3:19pm
Hi everyone,
I think we're in front of a huge eurusd down move.

Here's my count:
http://www.imagefreehost.com/files/0...1272727812.gif

GL GT
  • #6,229
  • Apr 3, 2008 3:36pm Apr 3, 2008 3:36pm
Could be a bull flag forming that would take long move to around 1.5830.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd403a.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #6,230
  • Apr 3, 2008 3:57pm Apr 3, 2008 3:57pm
Anyone noticing the daily pinbar for today?
  • #6,231
  • Apr 3, 2008 4:34pm Apr 3, 2008 4:34pm
Quoting pcnpurc1
Anyone noticing the daily pinbar for today?
Absolutely. Another reason to go long. Just need a nice break over 5700.
  • #6,232
  • Apr 3, 2008 5:37pm Apr 3, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
If its going to be a triangle now, I hope not, because it will be expanding triangle, and that will be false breaks on both tops, and bottoms, and will mess most of us up trading it. Including me.
Hi David,

seems it was a false break out & your opinion about expanding triangle is occured. from daily chart i try to use triangle and pitchfork. in your opinion, which one apply best in this situation? ...... i'm still hoping the price will down ..... to settle my loss ...... this thought make my judgement biased

regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pitchfork.jpg Size: 181 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: triangle.jpg Size: 177 KB
Always Set Stop Loss !! Trade what you see .... Not what you think !!
  • #6,233
  • Apr 3, 2008 7:53pm Apr 3, 2008 7:53pm
hi frenz, monink to u all...

today we are looking good entry for small short i think on EURUSD
but maybe for long short..sell divergence not very clear..
waiting 2-3 more candle at TF30M for confirmation..

how about ur guys?
  • #6,234
  • Apr 3, 2008 7:59pm Apr 3, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting Fx_Genius
Hindsight is always 20/20. I used to think, "It will turn around", "It can't possibly go any higher". Now I wait until I am very sure (sometime waiting to long, gun shy?) and have had minimal losses and am currently up 60+ pips with SL just below pivot should net me about 48 pips if it trips. Could have been bigger, (140 pips?) but I would rather be up 60 than down like I have been before. The rebuilding has begun. The road to forex riches starts with a single pip. And what a long road it is from down here!

David, your charts and insight (along with a few others, Kevin & Hammond) have helped me with to develop my own (and somehow very similar but different) charts that are starting to work for me. Even if I don't trade, my charts and calls are more right than wrong. I have tossed out most of the indicators I had used in the past as they didn't help and only interfered with what the market was actually doing. This might be the cheapest education with the most potential gain I have ever gotten. Thanks to all for contributing.
Man thats great, nice to hear.

When you get to a low account level ie:100$ or less. trade .01 lot. Trade only when you believe a bounce is happening, and is taking off in a discernible direction on a trend line bounce. Or pivot bounce And only a bounce. When price comes to 10 pips of a pivot, dip to 5 min. Wait for the bounce is most important! Get in so you have 30 pip or less s/l just the other side of newly established support. If the price draws back and breaks the line exit befor it hits your s/l.Because the move your looking for didn't happen. Your looking for the hard bounce that never comes back. Thats the one you'll get 100+ pips on. You can reverse order on break, and place s/l just the other side of line. Exit if it comes back, because your looking for that hard break that runs away. Thats the 200-300 pip moves. If it comes back on the reverse order, then exit and stop all trading, wait for the price to move 100 pips before looking for another opportunity.

Knowing how to trade is not even half the battle. Know when not to trade is the biggest battle.

People preach Money Management but never trade loss management. When to walk away, and how long to stay away, and when to come back.


.
  • #6,235
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:06pm Apr 3, 2008 8:06pm
This situation I scalped a few but now stopped.

There are a lot of converging trend lines from different time frames and its hard to discern a pattern. But rest assured, a pattern is forming. I will attempt to identify it for an entry but some time I don't see the pattern until complete. Butterfly, gartly, crab,wolf waves, elliotte wave count/formation ect... Lots to consider.
Something is developing. stay tuned.
Nothing much will happen untill news anyways. I'll be waiting to trade that.

Edit: sometimes its good to remove all stuff from chart and view it 4hr chart and daily, with nothing on it. Just pull it up and leave it, glance at it every now and then, and at some point it will grab you.

http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/8...lytrendeg1.gif
  • #6,236
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:18pm Apr 3, 2008 8:18pm
Heres a possible one. If price fell to 1.5376 on news, it would make an AB=CD and a bounce there, would give way to a possible butterfly targeting 1.6000 or greater.

http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/6813/patternsnv1.gif
  • #6,237
  • Apr 3, 2008 9:14pm Apr 3, 2008 9:14pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx

Knowing how to trade is not even half the battle. Know when not to trade is the biggest battle.

People preach Money Management but never trade loss management. When to walk away, and how long to stay away, and when to come back.

.
Have been busy at work lately and missed out on a few good movements I called and have missed a few because it didn't move like I thought it would then it took off. Oh well.

Trade loss & walking away, both very hard to do. Now I trade 2000 with 25-30 SL until I get 20-30 over entry and lock in for something, then adjust as it moves up 20-30 behind. I also wait for spread to drop to 2-4, usually by then a clear direction is formed and the risk of a 10 spread and a drop are minimized.

Maybe I waited to long to get in and had a drop right after I got in, but just about nailed the top and took it for 80 pips!

Maybe I should write a 12 step book about FX recovery.

Step 1 of 12: Stop, Look, Listen, Read, Chart and Evaluate.
Step 2 of 12: Call a few good trades but don't trade, just watch.
Step 3 of 12: Get one good trade with a large (40-50 or more) move that you called.
Step 4 of 12: Get 1/2 way back to starting cash, using above steps.

Its good to be on step 4, more steps to come!

Tonights call: Stay out until tomorrow.
Currently hugging weekly pivot and almost flat lined sideways. Current oil has $0.27 high/low difference for the current session, talk about a flat line! Not going back in till tomorrow. Maybe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-USD.png Size: 23 KB
  • #6,238
  • Apr 3, 2008 9:17pm Apr 3, 2008 9:17pm
I will say that I don't belive in the above formation playing out. Its just all I can see in it right now. A trip back to retest highs is what I think if were waiting on news. Because even if the news is good, the market expects it to be bad, so that will be the initial reaction any ways. Longs should load in before and nudge price higher back above pivot, and start just before news
  • #6,239
  • Apr 3, 2008 9:46pm Apr 3, 2008 9:46pm
Quoting Ultraman
hi frenz, monink to u all...

today we are looking good entry for small short i think on EURUSD
but maybe for long short..sell divergence not very clear..
waiting 2-3 more candle at TF30M for confirmation..

how about ur guys?
the result is im going for long at 1.5674 with small long..
if nice it's moving up maybe im going for a big long..
and if i see the sell divergence..
close manualy..

making pips
  • #6,240
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:46pm Apr 3, 2008 10:46pm
Quoting Ultraman
the result is im going for long at 1.5674 with small long..
if nice it's moving up maybe im going for a big long..
and if i see the sell divergence..
close manualy..

making pips
frown get stop loss -20
im waiting for next candle to short..
making pips
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