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Powerful Fib Based System - by DAZfx

  • #541
  • Apr 2, 2008 7:11pm Apr 2, 2008 7:11pm
Quoting pipiolo
what a fast move is doing, perhaps on these cases we should drop down to a smaller time frame, look at the stochs going up, attached a 30' chart for this toro

I am not taking it, indeed patience and good R:R is key for this business
Mate, your entry would have been at around 0.9095 with SL at 0.9081. The R:R was awesome. dazfx said in the room to look out for possible Long on AUDUSD, and longs on USDJPY and GBPJPY. All worked out, but I took AUDUSD and GBPJPY. Very happy for the way I ended the day, with the exception of a Cable trade which I jumped the gun, but closed for -12pips thanks to Mr Burn Uncle.
  • #542
  • Apr 2, 2008 10:11pm Apr 2, 2008 10:11pm
Radar on the Eur/usd pair
1hour time frame. It has retraced to 61%. Maybe moving up in 1 or 2 more hours ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 04032008-030024814.GIF Size: 56 KB
  • #543
  • Edited 10:52pm Apr 2, 2008 10:27pm | Edited 10:52pm
How would we interpret the divergence of cable hourly since yesterday? The last 3 highs of stoc and price have matched with higher highs, but the last 3 lows have contradicted and now stoc is not only lower low, but bottomed out.

What would our trend interpretation be or what cautions would we watch out for now in the upcoming trend for today?

I've become interested in this because after yesterday where everyone was looking for a short entry on hourly Cable, looking at the stoc vs price waves, they were in perfect sync for an up trend during the short signals we had. And price did go long instead of short.

And right now I can't figure out any bias - maybe that's a sign to stay out.

One possible translation but I don't know - there was a clear long bias with stoc and price agreeing early yesterday. I did some research on divergences and in an up trend they compare the highs of the price to the highs of the oscillator to seek divergence. We don't have that here, the highs match so we can say the up trend is still valid, plus we are now oversold so possible uptrend to come from that perspective too.

Regarding the contradicting lows, maybe it means there is a warning of a possible stall or reversal, but it keeps getting rejected by the highs lining up, then threatened again on the next low divergence, then rejected by the matching highs again, etc...so these lows are just warnings that don't come to fruition?
Attached Image
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #544
  • Apr 3, 2008 3:25am Apr 3, 2008 3:25am
Quoting mazdaz
Mate, your entry would have been at around 0.9095 with SL at 0.9081. The R:R was awesome. dazfx said in the room to look out for possible Long on AUDUSD, and longs on USDJPY and GBPJPY. All worked out, but I took AUDUSD and GBPJPY. Very happy for the way I ended the day, with the exception of a Cable trade which I jumped the gun, but closed for -12pips thanks to Mr Burn Uncle.
Many thanks for your advice and glad you made good pips.

Yesterday I was following the hourly AUDUSD chart and considered the confirmation candle to be the bullish one that left me afterwards on 0.9110 for entry and too close to first target. Should we have considered a different confirmation candle or have dropped down to 30 min to confirm an earlier entry?
Indeed on the 30 min TF the entry was very clear. Both 1h and 30' charts are on posts #518 & #522. Thank you again for any comments
  • #545
  • Apr 3, 2008 4:58am Apr 3, 2008 4:58am
...have EJ on watch for longs...a few hours to go though. Can't access the room from where i'm trading today, so will update the thread with anything that might be setting up. Had a losing short earlier on swissy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ - (1) 3rd Apr 08.GIF Size: 62 KB
  • #546
  • Apr 3, 2008 5:05am Apr 3, 2008 5:05am
Quoting ChowClown
...have EJ on watch for longs...a few hours to go though. Can't access the room from where i'm trading today, so will update the thread with anything that might be setting up. Had a losing short earlier on swissy.
EURUSD just tanked. So I guess we can't trade this now.
  • #547
  • Apr 3, 2008 5:09am Apr 3, 2008 5:09am
Quoting mazdaz
EURUSD just tanked. So I guess we can't trade this now.
...EUR/USD is off my radar for the time being, but EUR/JPY (EJ i was referring to in the post) is still in play around the 61.8 with stochs needing to hook etc.
  • #548
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:50am Apr 3, 2008 8:50am
possible long setup on EJ but beware news in 10 minutes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej1hm.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #549
  • Apr 3, 2008 9:19am Apr 3, 2008 9:19am
Quoting pipiolo
possible long setup on EJ but beware news in 10 minutes
on 15 min SMA5at 15950
on 30min =15964
h1..is not confirmed yet!

let see..im in on tf30..for demo!!

pid
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  • #550
  • Edited 10:03am Apr 3, 2008 9:59am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting pipiolo
possible long setup on EJ but beware news in 10 minutes
Looks good pipolo

For some additional confirmation ...

Support from various emas on various timeframes has not been broken.
Stochs are turning up on 1hr
AC turned from red to green on 1hr
Last candle on 1hr was bullish
Price crossing 5 ema on 1 hr
If 60 ema on 30 min is broken, I will go long

NB Resistance from trendline on daily around 161
  • #551
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:13am Apr 3, 2008 10:13am
Quoting priceaction
Looks good pipolo

For some additional confirmation ...

Support from various emas on various timeframes has not been broken.
Stochs are turning up on 1hr
AC turned from red to green on 1hr
Last candle on 1hr was bullish
Price crossing 5 ema on 1 hr
If 60 ema on 30 min is broken, I will go long

NB Resistance from trendline on daily around 161
Thank you for your input. That resistance around 161 will make more difficult target 3...
  • #552
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:30am Apr 3, 2008 10:30am
Quoting priceaction
Looks good pipolo

For some additional confirmation ...

Support from various emas on various timeframes has not been broken.
Stochs are turning up on 1hr
AC turned from red to green on 1hr
Last candle on 1hr was bullish
Price crossing 5 ema on 1 hr
If 60 ema on 30 min is broken, I will go long

NB Resistance from trendline on daily around 161
great analysis again from PA!

thanks dude..

hope baz will come here..and share his tought!

missed him much..

pid
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  • #553
  • Apr 3, 2008 12:39pm Apr 3, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting priceaction
Looks good pipolo

For some additional confirmation ...

Support from various emas on various timeframes has not been broken.
Stochs are turning up on 1hr
AC turned from red to green on 1hr
Last candle on 1hr was bullish
Price crossing 5 ema on 1 hr
If 60 ema on 30 min is broken, I will go long

NB Resistance from trendline on daily around 161
Good stuff PA,with this many reasons,you can go down to 5 min chart,and take the 60 ema break there for a better entry,but i am sure you must have made +40 pips anyway.

You are going to be a good trader.
baz
  • #554
  • Apr 3, 2008 12:44pm Apr 3, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting popisdead
great analysis again from PA!

thanks dude..

hope baz will come here..and share his tought!

missed him much..

pid
Cheers PID.
Have learned a lot from Baz.
I hope it keeps on that way!
  • #555
  • Apr 3, 2008 12:46pm Apr 3, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting baz
Good stuff PA,with this many reasons,you can go down to 5 min chart,and take the 60 ema break there for a better entry,but i am sure you must have made +40 pips anyway.

You are going to be a good trader.
baz
Baz,
Thank you.

Learning a lot from good guys like you, Daz, TEB, OzFx & James 16. Also working hard to get rid of the typical bad habits.

I read that the asthma has been playing up.
I hope you get it under control and that we can discuss trading more.

Take it easy there.
Rob
  • #556
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:01pm Apr 3, 2008 8:01pm
Quoting baz
Good stuff PA,with this many reasons,you can go down to 5 min chart,and take the 60 ema break there for a better entry,but i am sure you must have made +40 pips anyway.

You are going to be a good trader.
baz
Baz & Daz. Nice names. I am MazDA Z!!

60EMA on 5min is pretty much the same as 5SMA on 1Hr.

60m/5m= 12 * 5SMA = 60SMA. So just changing to EMA. Dazfx said something similar to do on 15min. To use the 21EMA.
  • #557
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:13pm Apr 3, 2008 8:13pm
Quoting mazdaz
Baz & Daz. Nice names. I am MazDA Z!!

60EMA on 5min is pretty much the same as 5SMA on 1Hr.

60m/5m= 12 * 5SMA = 60SMA. So just changing to EMA. Dazfx said something similar to do on 15min. To use the 21EMA.
Hi mazdaz
thanks for pointing it out,but i have a different way of trding.
I look for a break of trend line in the direction of the trade,and then look for a retest of the b/o point or the previous low,and more importantly will want to see the prices remain above the 200/60 ema on the 5 min,and to confirm the trade ,also to see the macd transit the zero line,and stay above.All this on the 5 min chart.
Slightly different,nor do i use Stochastics either.
Yes i think we should all get together and rename the thread to
MazDazBaz system sprinkled with a bit of OZFX !!!!
Take care and trade safe

baz
  • #558
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:18pm Apr 3, 2008 8:18pm
Quoting baz
Hi mazdaz
thanks for pointing it out,but i have a different way of trding.
I look for a break of trend line in the direction of the trade,and then look for a retest of the b/o point or the previous low,and more importantly will want to see the prices remain above the 200/60 ema on the 5 min,and to confirm the trade ,also to see the macd transit the zero line,and stay above.All this on the 5 min chart.
Slightly different,nor do i use Stochastics either.
Yes i think we should all get together and rename the thread to
MazDazBaz system sprinkled with a bit of OZFX !!!!
Take care and trade safe

baz
Too many Zs for my liking. :

Zzzzz
  • #559
  • Apr 3, 2008 8:28pm Apr 3, 2008 8:28pm
Quoting mazdaz
Too many Zs for my liking. :

Zzzzz
Yes ur right,but not best of health at the momment,cant Get to Sleep.But i am suprised ur up at this time of the night.
Anyway i went long the swissy,dont trade the asian session,but anything to take my mind of the ill health.

baz
  • #560
  • Apr 3, 2008 10:56pm Apr 3, 2008 10:56pm
In a long trade on AUDUSD.

AUDUSD gave 2 long setups before, so will see how this one goes.

{78.6 retrace, and bullish confirmation candle}.
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