Indicator Free Trading - Skunny
- #3,962
- Edited 11:28pm Mar 26, 2008 11:23pm | Edited 11:28pm
- | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 23 Posts
Hello guys,
I've got the question for those who had their AHA moment.I would like to know if your discovery help you distinguish the Good Entries from Bad Ones ???
I treat the bad ones as those which break the previous high/low but don't make the extension.
Moreover,Pitchristian,you wrote that you retraded 6months of daily data and you didn't have any losing trade.
That's awesome but I would like to know how big was your drawdown ?
One more thing,I know that you would write that there is not such thing as bad trades,the trader is the one which fail(famous Skunny quote).
Now my simple answer for price not reaching extension(actually Skunny wrote this) is that some other extension was reached in the middle of the road .... or maybe there is something more ???
Give me a chart and I would show you that 99% of times if we didn't reach the target then probably some other target was hit in the meantime.
BUT (big B-U-T
What I'm trying to say is that I HATE drawdowns so if there isn't any possibility to get rid off them then this system is not for me .... if there is "something" then I'm more than happy to spend another zillions of hours with it
Oh,and another thing,people are still wondering what Skunny meant by saying that "price gives us the hint where it wants to go" .... isn't that simple breach ? So price breaks the previous high/low but it fails to reach the target.After that we look for retrace levels of the new swing so that we can average-down our price entry.I might be wrong but this is the only thing which came to my mind.
I always think,what was the difference between this post :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=176
and this one :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=477
The only thing which differs is that in the first one Skunny said about entering the trade and then re-entering at 38 and 62 and on the second one,he said that price had given him the hint many hours before it dropped.
In my opinion he entered at that breach ... if not then there is something I don't know.
Still,I haven't figured it out what he meant by saying that the red fib becomes the blue fib
All in all,I'm aware that he emphasized that we are only on the 2nd chapter (of 10) and that things will change a little bit (in the future)..... but these are my thoughts .... so I'm waiting for some tips from the AHA's guys
EDIT :
Sorry for typos/mistakes,don't have time to correct them
P.S
40-50 pips drawdown is fine with me .... but not 200
Hey Polishtrader. My drawdown was not very large. It wasnt that I was placing trades with no stop losses and letting them just run forever. When I finally did get a loss (I went 97/103 profitable on my next test I ran, I was 87 out of 100 on the last one) it was because I pulled the fib in the wrong place. (the reason skunny said you never bet the farm on a trade!!!) There were two losses that I still havent figured out what happened but I guess I could live with only two out of a hundred!
BUt the beauty of this thread is that it makes you want to figure out the whys and why nots! Hope some of this helps!
- #3,964
- Mar 27, 2008 1:53am Mar 27, 2008 1:53am
Hello guys,
What I'm trying to say is that I HATE drawdowns so if there isn't any possibility to get rid off them then this system is not for me .... if there is "something" then I'm more than happy to spend another zillions of hours with it
P.S
40-50 pips drawdown is fine with me .... but not 200
Example; if you are faced with a fib range of 200 pips from end to end and you enter your position at the 0/100 line you must take into consideration a "worse case scenario" before making the trade and use correct money management to allow for a 200 pip drawdown. IMHO if you are staring at a 200 pip drawdown/loss you have stayed in way too long.
The key (IMO) is getting in before the 100/0 line. You can trade off the hourly charts but try using the 15M charts for an early entry. Skunny posted a long time ago in another thread a good analogy.........he said something to the effect that "it was better to get in early than trying to jump into the waterfall"
Go read Islanders thread (as well as his posts here on Skunny's thread), he has created a Skunny hybrid method of trading by entering much sooner than the 0/100 lines. If you had that same 200 pip range from end to end why not try and enter somewhere in the middle and set your stop loss 100 pips way instead of 200 (or sooner if you can see it's not going to go your way) you can then place a bigger position based on your MM and your risk reward is much greater too.
trading naked.......
Pitchristian,Piphitman
Thanks for your reply.I guess I will have to spend some more time with vHands/ForexTester.
Skunny mentioned that on every (I think it was 100 pips range) there is possibility to make at least one good trade against the trend ... but it is hard for me to trade with the retrace,isn't it catching the falling knife ??? (I guess it isn't when you have defined the real S/R .. Skunny would respond
As for Islander thread -I think that I already posted there but I decided to give it a break since I didn't want to confuse two approaches.Still,love his work !
Thanks for your reply.I guess I will have to spend some more time with vHands/ForexTester.
Skunny mentioned that on every (I think it was 100 pips range) there is possibility to make at least one good trade against the trend ... but it is hard for me to trade with the retrace,isn't it catching the falling knife ??? (I guess it isn't when you have defined the real S/R .. Skunny would respond
As for Islander thread -I think that I already posted there but I decided to give it a break since I didn't want to confuse two approaches.Still,love his work !
Hello guys,
I've got the question for those who had their AHA moment.I would like to know if your discovery help you distinguish the Good Entries from Bad Ones ???
I treat the bad ones as those which break the previous high/low but don't make the extension.
Moreover,Pitchristian,you wrote that you retraded 6months of daily data and you didn't have any losing trade.
That's awesome but I would like to know how big was your drawdown ?
One more thing,I know that you would write that there is not such thing as bad trades,the trader is the one which fail
Now my simple answer for price not reaching extension(actually Skunny wrote this) is that some other extension was reached in the middle of the road .... or maybe there is something more ???
Give me a chart and I would show you that 99% of times if we didn't reach the target then probably some other target was hit in the meantime.
BUT (big B-U-T
What I'm trying to say is that I HATE drawdowns so if there isn't any possibility to get rid off them then this system is not for me .... if there is "something" then I'm more than happy to spend another zillions of hours with it
Oh,and another thing,people are still wondering what Skunny meant by saying that "price gives us the hint where it wants to go" .... isn't that simple breach ? So price breaks the previous high/low but it fails to reach the target.After that we look for retrace levels of the new swing so that we can average-down our price entry.I might be wrong but this is the only thing which came to my mind.
I always think,what was the difference between this post :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=176
and this one :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=477
The only thing which differs is that in the first one Skunny said about entering the trade and then re-entering at 38 and 62 and on the second one,he said that price had given him the hint many hours before it dropped.
In my opinion he entered at that breach ... if not then there is something I don't know.
Still,I haven't figured it out what he meant by saying that the red fib becomes the blue fib
All in all,I'm aware that he emphasized that we are only on the 2nd chapter (of 10) and that things will change a little bit (in the future)..... but these are my thoughts .... so I'm waiting for some tips from the AHA's guys
EDIT :
Sorry for typos/mistakes,don't have time to correct them
P.S
40-50 pips drawdown is fine with me .... but not 200
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
I don't know if this means anything or not, but look at how similar the two formations are. Could this have something to do with "one fib becoming the other"?
Still,I don't think this is what Skunny meant.There was a person who described also PA around 50% and 38% but that doesn't explain that red-blue fib transformation
- #3,969
- Edited 8:47am Mar 27, 2008 8:46am | Edited 8:47am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2007 | 1,486 Posts
- #3,970
- Mar 27, 2008 9:25am Mar 27, 2008 9:25am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2007 | 1,486 Posts
Hello guys,
I've got the question for those who had their AHA moment.I would like to know if your discovery help you distinguish the Good Entries from Bad Ones ???
.......
BUT (big B-U-T
What I'm trying to say is that I HATE drawdowns so if there isn't any possibility to get rid off them then this system is not for me .... if there is "something" then I'm more than happy to spend another zillions of hours with it
.....
P.S
40-50 pips drawdown is fine with me .... but not 200
I don't claim to have had any AHA moments, but will try to address your concerns:
1. Yes, It is not just possible, but its easy to distinguish a Good entry from a BAD entry - but only after the fact!
If you look after an entry/Fib 'fails' most times you will see that a prior or a larger Fib was completing. So the fault is in the analysis for the Fib placement.
2. You don't have to monitor all the active cycles/Fibs - just the ones which may affect the outcome of the Fib you are pulling. This is because most Fibs active at any one time will be either too small to have an impact (e.g. single or 2 candle fibs ) or else they will be so large or in such a position that they are unlikely to influence the outcome of your chosen Fib (e.g. most Fibs based upon several weeks/months or greater).
3. If you really hate drawdowns so much, then just don't trade. If you can only handle 40 pip drawdowns, then trade a timeframe/currency pair where most Skunny style Fibs would require a 40 pip SL - and if if Fib requires too large a SL then just pass on it, you don't have to trade every Fib.
4.Skunny in reply to one of my posts, said that he doesn't like the R:R from trading breaches or breaks of the 0/100% lines with the SL beyond the opposite line . He implied that mostly he would wait for a breach or break and then if it pulled back inside the 0/100% lines, enter on a retrace bounce off an inner Fib line. This dramatically improves the R:R and reduces drawdowns.
- The only problems that I see with this are that :
A) They won't all pull back far enough to enter.
B) Some of the ones that do pull back far enough will keep on heading in the wrong direction because the trader
placed the Fib wrongly.
C) It may be psychologically hard for some to do this.
5. Skunny never said that you should enter/exit at the 0/100% lines. He did however say you should place your SL where you would be prepared to take a trade in the opposite direction. So use Vnds of FXtesteror even the F12 key to find what works for you.
6. Skunny did not teach a method or system, so this thread is not in conflict with those threads of Islander or Bobokus where general systems/methods of trading using Fibs are shown.
I hope this helps somebody,
Ian
- #3,971
- Mar 28, 2008 3:18am Mar 28, 2008 3:18am
What you has just shown is price making lower highs,hence showing the weakness - this is "old-skool" PA and it is great finding - haven't looked at this like that
Still,I don't think this is what Skunny meant.There was a person who described also PA around 50% and 38% but that doesn't explain that red-blue fib transformation
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
Since I picked this up on this thread, I thought it only prudent to get my feedback here...
Please bear with me bc I still cannot figure out how to save a chart file that I can post w Accucharts/FXSOL (help welcome, tech challenged =)
I'm working w 3 FIBs on the 4hr(well, really the 1hr, but the setup is easier to see on the 4hr)...early March top down to 17th lows, then 18th high to 20th low, & last the 27th high & low. Once you place these, you will see the way the pair is walking up a staircase directly to 208, which is the original 100%. Also, I see a channel of approx 300pips top to bottom w only few deviations.
I entered @ 198.19 placed a stop @ 197.40, & will enter the short if triggered. 10-1 odds ain't bad
Please let me know what you guys are seeing. I know a lot of folks are short this pair still, but...
Happy Friday & many pips!!!!
Please bear with me bc I still cannot figure out how to save a chart file that I can post w Accucharts/FXSOL (help welcome, tech challenged =)
I'm working w 3 FIBs on the 4hr(well, really the 1hr, but the setup is easier to see on the 4hr)...early March top down to 17th lows, then 18th high to 20th low, & last the 27th high & low. Once you place these, you will see the way the pair is walking up a staircase directly to 208, which is the original 100%. Also, I see a channel of approx 300pips top to bottom w only few deviations.
I entered @ 198.19 placed a stop @ 197.40, & will enter the short if triggered. 10-1 odds ain't bad
Please let me know what you guys are seeing. I know a lot of folks are short this pair still, but...
Happy Friday & many pips!!!!
