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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #3,941
  • Mar 15, 2008 11:09am Mar 15, 2008 11:09am
Quoting Scotty B
Yeah this was a good ole thread back in the day. Thanks to it, I am now trading almost 100%. When I lose it is because I follow my heart and not my head. Stop losses are a waste of money, and patience is the biggest key. Don't get positions so big that you can't handle the ride down on the roller coaster. I have learned to manage the draw downs, and hedge. I always have trades open. You really need to think differently to be successful in this market. I've been trading on a demo for about 6 months and am getting ready for the real deal.
How is Skunny's site- those of you who paid to join? Are you learning all his moly quail secrets? I hope things are going well over there.

Sorry for all the rambling... I scout around the market and trade unmet cycles. They are all over the place big and small, on every time frame. I can't control the timing factor, but I know the extremes, up and down of where the market is headed. I don't mind carrying my long positions because I like those interest payments, but I try to get in and out on the shorts (negative interest).

I am following my method that evolved through Skunny's teachings. I detailed my method in previous posts in this thread. To all of you guy's who are bummed that this thread died, all I can say is go and re-read this thread again. All the pieces of the puzzle are here. Trading 100% is very possible. Not easy, but possible. 90% is easily achievable after subtracting the human factor. Dang human factor!

Where might I find Skunny's site? I've had a search for it but didn't come up with anything. If posting the link is not allowed, would some one mind PM me please?

Thanks
  • #3,942
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:07pm Mar 18, 2008 10:07pm
I am sure I am not the only one, but sometimes when running vHands the pips ticks can move +80 pips, and then -80 pips the next tick, I am guessing it is a problem with my historical data?
  • #3,943
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:10pm Mar 18, 2008 10:10pm
Quoting logiktrader
I am sure I am not the only one, but sometimes when running vHands the pips ticks can move +80 pips, and then -80 pips the next tick, I am guessing it is a problem with my historical data?
Unless you want to use the trading feature you can run any expert advisor to get the same results.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #3,944
  • Mar 19, 2008 10:01am Mar 19, 2008 10:01am
I see no wonder in this method to be honest.

There will be a high win percentage, but the reason for that is the 3:1 R:R and dependant on quality of support resistance for drawing the fibs on.
Statisticaly speaking you should win 3 times for every one loss solely based on R:R.
The only way I can see it working out in the longrun is to tripple-up martange style, but only if you have enough funds to do handle 10losses.

using 0.1% of account per trade, trippling after a loss.

1/ 0.1
2/ 0.3
3/ 0.9
4/ 2.7
5/ 8.1
6/ 24.3
7/ 72.9

oops, seems using 0.1% is too much to afford 10losses in a row.

Ps. Ive just ran some probability software with 75% in the input field and the consecutive losses within 1500 tries is only 4, consecutive wins 22.
  • #3,945
  • Mar 23, 2008 1:02pm Mar 23, 2008 1:02pm
Just finished this thread for the second time beginning to end! Thanks to Skunny and everyone else that contributed. The second time through really opened my eyes and gave me a firm handle on this concept. THe fact that there are multiple cycles running at once, and also when a HIGH/LOW is breached but does not reach the 38 target before reversing means that an earlier cycle was completed at that reversal was a huge "A HA!" Now I just take the time to Weed out the earlier cycles to anticipate this. I just have one question.... I am not totally sure when to walk the opposite end of a fib.(Example: The lower end of your fib just breached and hit the 38 ext target and then progressed further down. I walk the lower end of the fib with the price ,but what about the top end? When do most of you move it? )

Thanks so much !!!
  • #3,946
  • Mar 23, 2008 4:39pm Mar 23, 2008 4:39pm
Quoting Pitchristian
Just finished this thread for the second time beginning to end! Thanks to Skunny and everyone else that contributed. The second time through really opened my eyes and gave me a firm handle on this concept. THe fact that there are multiple cycles running at once, and also when a HIGH/LOW is breached but does not reach the 38 target before reversing means that an earlier cycle was completed at that reversal was a huge "A HA!" Now I just take the time to Weed out the earlier cycles to anticipate this. I just have one question.... I am not totally sure when to walk the opposite end of a fib.(Example: The lower end of your fib just breached and hit the 38 ext target and then progressed further down. I walk the lower end of the fib with the price ,but what about the top end? When do most of you move it? )

Thanks so much !!!
Okay going to answer my own question I think... After pulling another 100 fibs in the last 4 hours....

Whenever your target of 38% extension is hit and you move your fib to it, thats when you move the opposite end to the most recent area of S/R. Am I missing anything? Any instances where you wouldn't do this?
  • #3,947
  • Mar 24, 2008 9:25am Mar 24, 2008 9:25am
Quoting Pitchristian
Okay going to answer my own question I think... After pulling another 100 fibs in the last 4 hours....

Whenever your target of 38% extension is hit and you move your fib to it, thats when you move the opposite end to the most recent area of S/R. Am I missing anything? Any instances where you wouldn't do this?
Hi Pitchristian,
Only if the price goes way past your 138% or 38% target do you deinately draw a new fib and remove the old one.
One thing you need to be aware of is that you can sometimes get both the 138% and the -38% targets both being hit from the same original Fib. So yes, drwa another fib, but if it hit to the Pip, keep the old one there too - because it may not yet be fully completed.
See Post numbers 1207 to 1210.

I hope this helps,
Ian
  • #3,948
  • Mar 24, 2008 10:05am Mar 24, 2008 10:05am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Pitchristian,
Only if the price goes way past your 138% or 38% target do you deinately draw a new fib and remove the old one.
One thing you need to be aware of is that you can sometimes get both the 138% and the -38% targets both being hit from the same original Fib. So yes, drwa another fib, but if it hit to the Pip, keep the old one there too - because it may not yet be fully completed.
See Post numbers 1207 to 1210.

I hope this helps,
Ian
Thanks IAN, Yes it helps.. that is what I have been doing. I retraded 9 months worth of hourly data last night. Out of 100 trades 87 of them did what they were suppossed too... they breached the swings high/low and proceeded to the target. Now someone would be really happy with an 87% victory but I wasn't. The 13 losses were way too large. My stop was at the other end of the fib(either the opposing high/low point). Some of the loss was gotten back because I also had a reversal order where the stop loss was . But if you lose all the pips between the 100 and 0 point of your fib, gaining some from the 100/0 to the extension only makes you back a small percentage. I am going to experiment with setting the stop and reverse order somewhere closer to the original entry. Also, I only walked one fib down that entre range of 100 trades. Skunny said to have 2 so obviously that would have helped! Take care...
  • #3,949
  • Mar 25, 2008 5:24pm Mar 25, 2008 5:24pm
I've discovered what skunny meant! It's amazing! He's right though. It can only come in a sort of visual epiphany folks. He's led us there, its now for us to make the connection.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #3,950
  • Mar 25, 2008 5:31pm Mar 25, 2008 5:31pm
Wow is right. Me asking my own questions and truly figuring out why trades reversed before the 38 extension has taught me the most. I am using Forex tester instead of vhands now because I think it is easier to use(and quicker) Only downside is it isnt free! For those of you reading this thread and are still confused.. DONT GIVE UP! You need the screen time and rereading the thread twice will helps things jump out at you. I just backtraded 6 months of daily candles with not one losing trade. practice practice practice!!! Good luck to all and thanks again skunny!
  • #3,951
  • Mar 25, 2008 5:34pm Mar 25, 2008 5:34pm
Drop the indicators and focus on the candles. its the best favour you can do yourself.

Its so easy.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #3,952
  • Mar 26, 2008 3:56am Mar 26, 2008 3:56am
Hi Pitchristian,

Please share your findings. Why did some trades reverse before hitting the 38? Is it because they didn't complete the 62 or 38 retrace?

Thanks.

Quoting Pitchristian
Wow is right. Me asking my own questions and truly figuring out why trades reversed before the 38 extension has taught me the most. I am using Forex tester instead of vhands now because I think it is easier to use(and quicker) Only downside is it isnt free! For those of you reading this thread and are still confused.. DONT GIVE UP! You need the screen time and rereading the thread twice will helps things jump out at you. I just backtraded 6 months of daily candles with not one losing trade. practice practice practice!!! Good luck to all and thanks again skunny!
  • #3,953
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:28am Mar 26, 2008 7:28am
Pitchristian

Where did you get the Forex tester. I agree, Vhands is not very user friendly.

Gary
  • #3,954
  • Mar 26, 2008 8:41am Mar 26, 2008 8:41am
Hello guys,

I've got the question for those who had their AHA moment.I would like to know if your discovery help you distinguish the Good Entries from Bad Ones ???

I treat the bad ones as those which break the previous high/low but don't make the extension.

Moreover,Pitchristian,you wrote that you retraded 6months of daily data and you didn't have any losing trade.
That's awesome but I would like to know how big was your drawdown ?

One more thing,I know that you would write that there is not such thing as bad trades,the trader is the one which fail (famous Skunny quote).
Now my simple answer for price not reaching extension(actually Skunny wrote this) is that some other extension was reached in the middle of the road .... or maybe there is something more ???

Give me a chart and I would show you that 99% of times if we didn't reach the target then probably some other target was hit in the meantime.

BUT (big B-U-T ... how to monitor ALL the active cycles ??? It is impossible ! There are swing cycles,candle cycles,larger trend cycles.

What I'm trying to say is that I HATE drawdowns so if there isn't any possibility to get rid off them then this system is not for me .... if there is "something" then I'm more than happy to spend another zillions of hours with it

Oh,and another thing,people are still wondering what Skunny meant by saying that "price gives us the hint where it wants to go" .... isn't that simple breach ? So price breaks the previous high/low but it fails to reach the target.After that we look for retrace levels of the new swing so that we can average-down our price entry.I might be wrong but this is the only thing which came to my mind.

I always think,what was the difference between this post :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=176

and this one :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=477


The only thing which differs is that in the first one Skunny said about entering the trade and then re-entering at 38 and 62 and on the second one,he said that price had given him the hint many hours before it dropped.
In my opinion he entered at that breach ... if not then there is something I don't know.

Still,I haven't figured it out what he meant by saying that the red fib becomes the blue fib


All in all,I'm aware that he emphasized that we are only on the 2nd chapter (of 10) and that things will change a little bit (in the future)..... but these are my thoughts .... so I'm waiting for some tips from the AHA's guys

EDIT :

Sorry for typos/mistakes,don't have time to correct them

P.S

40-50 pips drawdown is fine with me .... but not 200
  • #3,955
  • Mar 26, 2008 3:10pm Mar 26, 2008 3:10pm
I'm rereading this thread, and there are a couple of things that I've noticed. Skunny says that it's very important to place your fibs correctly, and that "you'd be surprised to know where true S/R is". But I'm still not completely clear on choosing the correct S/R areas, and it's obviously very important. For example, this is a chart posted by Skunny: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1197637822
How were the high/low points of the fib chosen and why?
  • #3,956
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:31pm Mar 26, 2008 7:31pm
Hi,

I m a new comer to this thread.

Does Skunny still post here or has he completed his task? Does anybody have a summary of his posts? It would certainly help speed up the process. In fact, any summary would do. I know that from time to time people copy and paste items, and hopefully someone has done it here.

Thanks
Al
  • #3,957
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:34pm Mar 26, 2008 7:34pm
Quoting zebra7860
Hi,

I m a new comer to this thread.

Does Skunny still post here or has he completed his task? Does anybody have a summary of his posts? It would certainly help speed up the process. In fact, any summary would do. I know that from time to time people copy and paste items, and hopefully someone has done it here.

Thanks
Al
I'm not sure where, but there is an attachment with a summary that is excellent.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #3,958
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:54pm Mar 26, 2008 7:54pm
Enjoy!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Skunny_posts.pdf   659 KB | 1,376 downloads
  • #3,959
  • Mar 26, 2008 8:12pm Mar 26, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting Scotty B
Enjoy!


hey scotty! how are you my friend? i have this feeling that scotty is actually behind the scenes controlling all the world markets like some kind of wizard of OZ....he has some secret skunny style wizadry.....that if released into the natural world would send the universe into a tailspin causing molecules to revere in upon themselves or something....lol

all hail to scotty the wizard!
  • #3,960
  • Mar 26, 2008 11:19pm Mar 26, 2008 11:19pm
Quoting pipsalot
Hi Pitchristian,

Please share your findings. Why did some trades reverse before hitting the 38? Is it because they didn't complete the 62 or 38 retrace?

Thanks.

Hey there.. Well if a candle breaches the high or low of the fib and doesnt make it to the extension(38), this could mean another "price cycle" has completed prior to the current 38 being reached. (or you drew your fib incorrectly) If you were "walking your fib" correctly you would have seen this level sitting there and possibly blocking price from reaching the immediate extension. Thats why you need to have at least two fibs running on the chart. To get the moves inside the move. Sorry if this doesnt make sense. Just got home from a trip to europe and I am beat. Good luck
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