Piptrain trade journal and performance

Greetings traders,

We will be posting our trade analysis and performance here starting this week. PIPTRAIN consists of two trading partners, more heads = more pips! Basic trade rules are:

1. Best trades are found typically from London open to close, but trades are not limited to this time.

2. GBPJPY is preferred and primary pair to trade. But during the daily candle analysis another pair may be added if conditions exist.

3. Trading with the trend is preferred. If a trade is taken against the intraday trend, it is noted as a scalp and quick profits are targeted and taken.

4. Charts followed: weekly, 4h, 1h. And use smaller time frames for entry.

5. Indicators followed: price action is paramount. Also fibonacci, cci, stochastics, and ma lines. Pivot points are also considered. We also look for chart patterns and trendlines, which can be most powerful.
a) MA's: 5ema, 21ema, 50ema, 100ema, 200ema

6. For trade entries, a pull back is preferred but not every trade set up provides a pull back. So entries are discretionary.

7. Trade targets for profit will depend on fibonacci levels and extensions, ma lines, pivot points. Once 30 pips of profit is achieved, the stop loss is moved up to break even to minimize losses.

8. Stop loss is not always used, but an 80 pip emergency stop loss is used. If a trade quickly goes against us, then a loss and re-evaluation is taken.

9. Money management: typically 2%-5% max per trade.

10. We prefer not to be holding a trade position during high volitility news releases.

More rules may be added and edited as time progresses.

Happy pippin, now, let's catch the next PIP TRAIN!

I posted this chart last night on Auslanco's GJ thead to show the 4hr triangle set up. Since we did not trade London and started the New York session rather later today, we waited until after the 10am housing data, and then entered a L trade. First target was the 4hr 50ema at 199.30. Now that the 4h candle has closed above this 50ema, we are looking for price to head to the 100ema next. When I measure the triangle and then place that measurement from the triangle break upward, the target is 205.30, which is real close to the 4h 200ema.

Points to watch:
50% of monthly chart from 2000-2008: 199.60
50% of down move from two weeks ago: 200.30

I am looking for the best way to post trade performance and will start doing that soon. Today +50 pips profited, with a runner still L.

Hello,
May I know which Moving Averages do you use? And how do you use the cci to determine trades?

Hello good,

The MA's that we use are:

5ema, 21ema, 50ema, 100ema, 200ema : on all TF

We are also testing out the 8sma, possibly for entries and will discuss that as we go.

We have the cci set at 31, and we are watching it on all TF for crosses thru the 0 line, and to show overbought and oversold, and also to show divergence.

pt

Triangle within a triangle within a triangle on GJ. We have not trade today so far as we watch this rangy market. Here is a 4h chart. This 6 candle consolidation certainly looks like a bull flag. Just happily awaiting for a break.

Above the 50ema on the 4h is bullish, (yellow ma)
Break of the 200.30 (50% fib from some days ago, down move) is good sign for longs
Break above today's high, and we are long

Market moved big this morning for about 300 pips downward, closed the 4h below the triangle. We have extended the previous trendline from the 208.00 top out to real time to now see the new target for this down move. This of course as long as this head and shoulders pattern neckline at 197.55 breaks down. So once broken, the new target down will be near 194.00.

Prices to watch:
197.55 is the NL of the h&s
197.21 is the weekly pivot
197.16 is the 50% retrace of the low to the 201.80 peak, up move.
below 197 and down to possible retest of the low at 192.50

We will be shorting GJ after the NL breaks and retests.

Some good analysis there, what book can you recommend on candlestick analysis? Keep the pip train rolling, good work

Thanks fxtrader, I really love technical analysis and probably spend waaay too much time looking at charts. I cannot think of a good book on candlesticks, but if you find one, let me know! I just know the basics on candlesticks that I have learned from watching and trading this market the past 5 yrs.

I LOVE how the GJ now has retraced all the way back up to the 4h 50ema which is also back at that lower trendline from the triangle that broke. Should start rolling back down soon now, but anything can happen. If price closes a candle back above the trendline here at 199.50 area, then bulls should come back into play.

We were a little off our trading mojo this morning and did not make any pips on this down and up. What can I say.... Not to worry, there's always another trade set up around the corner..

I would like to see price back below the 4h 21ema to get my shorts ready..

cheers

Greetings,

So my potential short trade on GJ never happened due to the neckline down at 197.55 never being broken last night. And now, price has risen back above the 50ema and the triangle and almost reached the upper trendline down from the 213.50 peak some weeks ago. Now the retrace has brought price back to that magical 50% fib at 200.35, also where the trendlines are converging... SO..... hmm. I am very curious about the possible divergence showing this cci, pointing downward. The daily chart could also give some clues here, this bounce at 201.70 was the daily 21ema and the 4hour 100ema. Big picture, as long as price remains above the daily 5ema, my bias is to the upside. Just wondering if choppy consolidation will continue for a bit longer..

To watch:
=Break of the upper trendline near 201.70 and we will buy up to the 4h 200ema
=202.94 is 50% of the down move from 213.40
=200.35 is 50% of downmove from 208.00
=199.60 is 50% of monthly up trend
=197.11 is 50% of recent up retrace from the low

Here comes the pip train, all on board! Finally a break downward of the lower trendline and this train should pick up steam south bound. Guess that divergence on cci to downside yesterday was valid... I made about 100 pips on the break of the support at 199.00. Next week should be fun!

Break of the last low at 197.55 should really see a fall, potentially a retest of the low at 192.50.

cheers

note: a recross of the 50ema down through the 200ema on the hourly chart again, should/could help to slingshot GJ down down, as long as price stays below the 50ema.

Here is updated 4h GJ chart. With such a pretty swing low that bounced off the 197.16 (50% fib of the low to the 201.80 peak), and now trading above the 50ema. Will the hourly chart REcross the 50ema and the 200ema back to the upside in the coming hours?? If the 200.00 can break, then next is the 201.80 then on to the 4h 200ema. Basically looking for break of the blue trendline near 200.00. Plenty of bears are looking to continue the overall trend DOWN, so I must wait for morning for next possible trade..

Also looks nice: the 50% fib of the down move from 213.50 to the low: 202.95

Remember: 199.60 is the grand 50% of the monthly chart

4h cci says: crossing the 0 to the upside...

Greetings,

Updated 4h chart. Soooooooo....triple bottom, little more visible on the 1h chart. Entered Long GJ at 198.05 and looking for first target of 200.40, which is the trendline down from 213.50 peak end of Feb, and also 4h 100ema. Will need to get thru the blue trendline first. Once 100ema hit, we will reevaluate, but I see potential to the 200ema, which will be near that 50% of the 213.50 peak down to the low: 202.95. CCI is pokin thru the 0 line. but last time it did that it fell couple hundred pips. Let's see.

PS, yes this is against the daily trend. but my 4hr closed above the 50ema...back below the 50ema and will have to reevaluate..

To note:
The triple bottom happened at 197.16 area, that 50% of the low to the 201.80 peak. 161% extension of that move goes to 207.50. Now, I do see a trendline way up around there that comes down from 241 peak, also near the daily 50. Hmm. Too far to think about right now. Lets test the daily 21 first.

Nice Charts - Thank You PipTrain.

Took profit at 200.40. She is still looking so LONG. 200.65 is my M4, above that R2 is 201.50. 201.80 is that peak from last week...

Personally, since I made about 200 pips today, I am gonna shut down and enjoy the pips, and spring in NYC.

cheers

I could not resist, I had to post new chart! ADDICT.

In turquoise are the trendlines now in play. Now that price is nicely above the 50ema, and 100ema, the 200ema is next on the horizon. With so much movement today I would expect some retrace, which will be nicer for Long entries. Lets see how price works between these two trendlines. Probably will consolidate between there, I imagine. Above the 201.20 trendline and then to recent high at 201.80, next I see the 50% of the 213.50 to low move, at 202.95. Then 4h 200ema. Maybe by the time price is able to head that way the 200ema will have come down to that area. Once the 200ema is taken (IF IT IS TAKEN OUT) we can consider the 161% extension of the low to the 201.80 peak, at 207.45.

For SHORTS: I must see how these trendlines hold or do not hold. Would make sense, since we are in a downtrend, for price to bounce off that 50% line at 202.95 area and head back down. Check out all the support there, now will be big resistance. But, shorts could start coming back in anytime, I suppose.

cheers

Greetings,

Updated 4h chart for GJ. Unfortunately I missed today's trading, looks like price almost got up to this next trendline down from the 213.50 peak. Nice smooth moves up. 4h 200ema breached. With this major TL just above price, I am standing aside until price decides to bounce down or breach it. But now that the daily chart shows a clear break of the 21ema, certainly looks like the daily 50ema is next, near 206. See the fib extension: 161% target at 203.79 was hit today, also M4. Bad day to miss trading! Next fib extension 261% target goes to 208.00. Breach of this TL at 204.40 area and I will keep buying up to 208.00.

cheers

Greetings,

Some traders think NFP stands for Not For Profit. LOL! I snagged a few pips today shorting GJ, it was truly a brilliant example of pivot points and fibs. I waited for the NFP data to come out and then fibbed the news candle, I used the 5min candle. Since price flew back up after touching that candle low at 203.40, I decided to wait for a break of the high or low of this monster news candle, 150 pip it moved! Finally after several minutes price came back down and once it broke through 203.40, I was short. Now, I had fibbed the news candle and the 161% extension of that candle was 202.35. Also daily M1 was 202.35, and weekly M4 was 202.32. Sure enough, after five 15min candles price hit 202.35 to the pip and then back up. It has only been recently that I have been paying more attention to the weekly pivots.

So, whats on for next week? Looks like price is ending the day and week below the major trendline down from 213.50 peak, and even below the 50% at 202.95 of that down move. But since the daily candle looks like it will close above the 21ema and also the 5ema, my bias is still up for Monday.. I am wondering if price may want to touch previous resistance at 201.80 area first?

After a day of consolidating yesterday, making a nice inside daily candle, price has fallen back to the 201.80 area, previous resistance is now support (for now). Price is now well below the trendline down from 213.50 peak, and the next TL below here is the up TL from the low connecting the lows, now sitting near the monthly pivot at 199.50 area. This is also that monthly 50% retracement level we have been watching for couple months. also to note: 201.05 is 50% of last week's up move, this was hit already today. Bigger time frames are pointing to that lower TL, but would be interesting if this 201.05 can hold..

Updated 4h chart. Price flew down today past the lower trendline, touched the 50% fib retracement of the low to the 205 peak and then in 1 long candle came back to the trendline, and stopped. Pretty amazing! This chart looks so short to me, my only concern is that there is currently an inverse h&s on the 1h chart, valid for upside move until 200.54 is taken out. So I placed a sell order for 200.50, with stop loss at 201.50. This is longer term trade to target first 197.00, then T2 is 194.87, then T3 is 192.50. There is potential for the down trend to be over with such a big move today, so if price reenters and closes inside this trend line, I must reevaluate.

Note:
=monthly pp at 199.54 price flew past and then retraced through
=also that super important 199.60 level is basically the SAME as this monthly pivot point. Which to me means: this month will decide whether further downside to continue OR we have already hit the bottom of this down trend.

Yep, got stopped out -100 but this am I reentered the short, booked +100 and now reentered again and holding. Will likely hold this through the 10am news, stop moved to BE. Next target is the neckline of the ginormous h&s on the 4h chart, at 198.20. If this NL is broken, down down she goes...but maybe not til next week.