Daily Cable Analysis

Here is a chart for the Friday Session on the 5 Minute Candle.

Frankfurt Low 1.9739
London High 1.9771
London Close (5M) 1.9762

Day Session Low 1.9694
Day Session Close (5M) 1.9699

After Hitting Low 1.9694, price reversed up to the High at 1.9762 - London Close (5M).

Dropped back below the 1.9739 mark once again, and closed at 1.9734 below the Frankfurt Low mark set before the London Session opened.

Hey notme32,

I agree with those ranges and with the 23 fib. I´m also facing this same confusion as how to act in the market, so a nice way I learned here is to set a key price above / below which you go in.

For instance, on this Monday (London open) I'm looking for a 15 min candle (better if 1hr) to open above 9765 to long or below 9616 to short. Looks like a wide range, since we closed at 9735. But Asia will move this price towards on of those two points and - this will be the catch - London is the one to set the direction.

London failed to set a clear direction last Friday, ranging for hours within the range left by the Asian session.

I will revise those entry levels by London open, after watching price activity, so do not take them for granted right now.

I expect:
::Long side
- possible fight at the 9777 area (not just a spike) and 9796
- Test (spike?) on the 9805/9810 area to feel the temperature there

::Short side
- 9722/9716 was the battlefield on the Friday. I have no idea whether or not there are any stops left as to prevent from a down move again.
- 9695 as key price to define an intraday downtrend

Eyes wide open to first 30min of US session: this market pulled the prices down during last week, BUT, did not do that on Friday until minutes to news.

In both cases, don't take Monday direction as the week's direction necessarily. Sometimes Tuesdays reverts Monday's direction...

Early this week it will be all about price activity. Indicators are mixed in my opinion.

Just to make it clear:

Set a key price above / below which you will feel confortable to go in. Forget about other people's (or my) calls , 'cause we do not have the same view / target / timeframe / risk & loss tolerance.

ok cesars , is helpful for trade hour to hour along the day .
Btw, what u mean by 9695 as key price to define an intraday downtrend. ?

is a strong support ?

It was Friday's low and quicky rejected. I notice that heavy stops are found 4-6 pips off XX00 levels.. So we may see 9695 being rejected again. If we hang on this area for a while and see a candle (5M / 15M) open below this level, it will be an indication for bears-free to go down the road.

Hey, I´m running some studies here to set those levels. They are not random and match with recent behavior of this currency. But feel the environment by London open +1h (if you can) to realize what the market is intending to do, where it feels hot areas, so forth. That's the way I look at price activity...

Monarch's post above is about it... Go figuring where are the lows, highs, supports, so forth untill you build the whole picture in your mind.

actually i never set the price, i jump in and out with sense and trade insting, brave, and vision also mood. all the chart and fib,(number) etc is just for border , sometimes i not trade even all that number "tell me to act" .

Btw, i have something interested to see, and have check it on daily chart from begining (1978), is like this.
1. take position on closed price(usa closed). short if that day show candle bear and long if that day candle bull.
2.when market open again ( sydney) then take profit about 10pip.
3. change for that is mostly happend ( i don't know percentage about that)

not guarantee happend.
just for intermezo pips.

ok thx cesarnc, i must sleep few hour, now is 5:40 am here.
i'll be back. (arnold )

Hope everyone is having a nice weekend. Just to update my views - GBP is very strong - on the monthlys on down accross the board. Is it too strong, who knows but in relation to the euro I believe so. The euro this week maybe playing catchup to the pound and although that has certain implications, we need to really review all of them and then look for probability within all of those scenarios.
A) Euro flys versus dollar while GBP holds tight or advances slightly vs dollar.
b) Euro makes moderate gain vs dollar while GBP moderate loss
c) Euro makes moderate loss vs dollar, GBP modrate to large loss
d) Euro loses large, GBP back down to 9250 level.

EurGBP has come back down to level of low of 2004 and although I would favor a turn here it has not yet had any sign of confirmation making a play on this rather risky. Nevertheless, it has reached a key level in price and indicators would all favor a turn soon(soon, in terms of time - not necessarily price).

As for Eur vs dollar although it is this week away from confirmation for turn to the upside, It is at a level on the weeklys and especially the monthlys, where its technical picture is looking rather bleak. If Euro can close the month below 2939, I believe we can count on a decent correction to the downside before an upward move can have the momentum to pull through.

Nevertheless, the dailys have seemed to have formed their base for now and Monday would seem like a good day for one last push north for the euro before testing that base once again.

What would this all imply for GBP - Remember this is all an opinion.

GBPUSD has failed on 2 straight days to close above the 9750 level. On the dailys, RSI is at a key level in the overbought area for bear market.
On the weeklys, GBP closed above a key level in 9726 and also confirmed a positive reversal a very strong signal to the upside.
On the monthlys, we have surpased the key RSI resistance for overbought of bear market but are one month away from confirming a turn(Unless this month closes at above dec high), this turn also would be coming in at key level in RSI accompanied with divergence.

I believe that these longer term looks give us somewhat of a clue(or framework) on which to setup for the week ahead with a lesser amount of risk.

Monday will be a key day and while I do favor the longer term buy side of this market, I don't believe that the current price level is the one in which to do it. IF Euro turns strong to upside on monday as I expect vs the dollar, we will have some pound strength as well which can bring us to our low 9810-9820 area. However I do not feel this move in terms of the pound will follow through and a close below 9750 is expected. For me, this would somewhat set the tone for the week. With all of the divergence going on in the sub daily timeframes, it just seems more than likely that a turn on monday should occur and continue through tuesday to bring the dailys back to a normalized rsi level and to allow the euro to catch up somewhat.

From there on out - I expect follow through on the drop or a rangebound market for the rest of the week in which I believe the euro will gain some back on the pound.

For this reason, the setups of least risk for me will be to trade my oscilators on overbought areas for bear market ranges, and give special emphasis to negative reversals that develop throughout the week. Also, on Monday in particular as I feel one last spike is probable, I will not enter any long positions other than a scalp type setup and will not trade short until I receive confirmation on 4 hr chart which shouldn't come for me until 5AM the earliest. If I miss it, I miss it, there should be other opportunities on retracements.

These type setups should keep me out of trouble in all scenarios outside of A. If A occurs though, I believe the move will come on Monday and continue on thursday and Friday to end the week. If Price moves to 9800 level on monday without turning and closes in that level on the dailys, well then I will most likely look for only long entry on pullback, however this pullback may be an extreme one so it will be important for me to use the 4hr for confirmation of such setup, and further confirmation in dailys to continue to higher profit targets. During the correction(if we get one, because of the fact that these setups are materializing on much higher timeframes, I may still take a short signal, but will treat it with caution and low leverage, and make sure that it is setup on a lower time frame to keep me out of troubles way with the bigger picture.

As Monday hits the highs and wether it closes up there or not, that is when many speculators may nervously jump on board only to find that the divergences that haven't worked for so many days are now going to eat them alive. They will hold on to and add to their positions, assured that the breakout is real. This is where the pros, large funds, etc (those with good visibility into order flow) come in and get to unwind some inventory at a good price. As the pair drops, nervousness sets in due to the immense amounts of leverage that will go into this breakout until finally all of these weak longs let go of their positions, accounts, and get rich quick dreams on a breakout below the 2 day low. Now is a good time( and Price) for the larger funds and commercials to come in and acquire more inventory driving up the price back up on Thursday and Friday, leaving all who is weak and left over to sell their longs out of fear of further decline at breakeven or worse. This is just my opinion if scenario A was to occur, which could be very opportunistic for the patient trader if it does.

Anyway, this is all just an opinion, thought I would share and hope to see all of yours as well as I always enjoy and learn from the varied opinions.

Hi to all,
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Removed Link Rule Violation
See picture!

Thats really helpful - at least for anyone who may want your account information.

Wah great trades there.

Trustworthy?

Be carefull, this is a scam..!!..you get nothing here dude.

Switching that to Wednesday through Friday as it coincides better with news releases

Hey, check this out...

An attempt to know you guys a little bit better

"See" you there

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=13343

Hey Leugimp,

On Wed there's the BOE Metting, that will possibly vote 8:1 / 7:2 pro-hike - another 0.25% - it is not the hike itself, just an indication

Previous was 9:0 and the hike came.

I see the last rate hike as the responsible for rocketing Cable this high in the skies.

Don't you think that this announcement may boost Cable up? Other big time announcements only on Friday...

I think it can boost up and if scenario A occurs then I would favor a move up in that direction that day. However, on that particular news release, depending on techs to confirm, and I must see history on it,I think it is a good fading release as hike has been extremely priced in as well as increased prospect for future rate hike.

What do you mean scam? Is this site a hoax? I am considering to try their $25 offer upon opening real acct.

Pivots From Jan 18th midnight to Jan 19 midnight

Open:19724 High:19777 Low:19634 Close:19760

R2: 19866.
M4: 19840.
R1: 19813.
M3: 19768

Pivot : 19723

M2: 19697.
S1: 19670.
M1: 19625.
S2: 19580.

Here is my 4 hour chart