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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,921
  • Jan 20, 2007 7:00am Jan 20, 2007 7:00am
The GBP/ USD will go down for the next two weeks and after that it will go up. But it is sure to go down by at least 300 pips approx from what it is now.
  • #2,922
  • Jan 20, 2007 7:33am Jan 20, 2007 7:33am
Quote
the brokers and banks know what we are think...
Then they will be make us loss, that to win....
so by any way by any analysis the GBP/USD must go down, but they are not do that , because they are know we are know that..
there is no any reasone to go up , by fib , or by news.....
Oh yeah, they are moving a lot of money just to rip my mini off.

Quote
The good news for us, is that we can come out on top, whatever they do. Just wait for the waves and surf 'em.


Quoting simplecoders
The GBP/ USD will go down for the next two weeks and after that it will go up. But it is sure to go down by at least 300 pips approx from what it is now.
My opinion is exactly the opposite, but I'd appreciate to learn you reason whys, if you don't mind. Thanks
  • #2,923
  • Jan 20, 2007 7:58am Jan 20, 2007 7:58am
[MJ

i think the core CPI consists of excluding consumer items and is one of the importenant data as if the reading is higher the the forecast it is favorable for the crosponding currancy.

Perviaz

quote=m_j_1984;187707]Hi all

thank you monarch for your help.


do you have any idea of Core CPI impact on GBPUSD?it will go up again?

I wish a good PIP day for all[/quote]
  • #2,924
  • Jan 20, 2007 8:03am Jan 20, 2007 8:03am
if he is not there we can help u in building up your trading skills. and harnesss the traing.


Quoting forexnovice
Its unfortunate Monarch has stopped frequenting the thread. I got 2 learn a lot frm him. Demo trading...tried it but blew up the accounts. Real trading teaches a lot more than demo....Leugimp's TA & FA r really good..right up2 the mark

Cheers....Good Night Everyone...See all ya Bulls & Bears on Monday morning
  • #2,925
  • Jan 20, 2007 10:37am Jan 20, 2007 10:37am
Quoting simplecoders
The GBP/ USD will go down for the next two weeks and after that it will go up. But it is sure to go down by at least 300 pips approx from what it is now.
but i think when it go down , it will be go more than 600 pip
from 1.98.... to 1.90....
  • #2,926
  • Jan 20, 2007 11:12am Jan 20, 2007 11:12am
Quoting khaled22
but i think when it go down , it will be go more than 600 pip
from 1.98.... to 1.90....
I think the intention of this thread was for sharing analysis. If you guys would be so kind as to share the technical or fundamental basis for your predictions it would benefit the rest of us, I'm sure...otherwise it's kinda just speculation from the other side of the screen.

knowhutimean?
Is your SL my TP?
  • #2,927
  • Jan 20, 2007 11:19am Jan 20, 2007 11:19am
Quoting khaled22
but i think when it go down , it will be go more than 600 pip
from 1.98.... to 1.90....
Hey, would you guys mind sharing some charts or insiders here? FED? BOE? Soros?

I´m mean, those are strong statements. If "IT WILL" then I ALSO WILL dump in 20 lots on this Moday and will be back in two weeks to collect my $ 6,000 (simplecoder's scenario) / $16,000 (khaled's scenario)

... and CALL IT A YEAR!

I'm so needing this cash....
  • #2,928
  • Edited 11:39am Jan 20, 2007 11:28am | Edited 11:39am
Quoting kenmania
I think the intention of this thread was for sharing analysis. If you guys would be so kind as to share the technical or fundamental basis for your predictions it would benefit the rest of us, I'm sure...otherwise it's kinda just speculation from the other side of the screen.

knowhutimean?
Coudn't have said it better...

This Friday, while I was watching the market ranging I decided to stay out for a few more time before making a decision, a post popped with something like Short @ XXX (don't recall), TP 9497.... I go WOW and spent another hour trying to figure out how the heck it was going to happen still on this Friday...

That's why those bold calls mess up with the thread. I'm still naive enough to think "wooow, what do they know that I don't?"

I don't ask for charts or whatever, just make those calls clear for others to go on learning, as I am trying to. Indicators? Strategy? Long term? Insider information?

Hey, see you on February, then. $16K richer than you morons that will spend the next two weeks in this forum begging for a few pips......
  • #2,929
  • Jan 20, 2007 11:38am Jan 20, 2007 11:38am
Quoting kenmania
I think the intention of this thread was for sharing analysis. If you guys would be so kind as to share the technical or fundamental basis for your predictions it would benefit the rest of us, I'm sure...otherwise it's kinda just speculation from the other side of the screen.
Quoting kenmania

knowhutimean?


I cleared my goal on the London Open early Friday, and once that goal was finished, I turned off my charts for the weekend. I have not even looked at the price since my 1.9706 was hit on my Short posisiton.

I said all that to say this;

I have no idea where the price is right now, it could be lower than my 9706, or it could have shot back up past the High at 9777.

For me to just state, I think it is going down to 92xx, or up past 98xx without any type of analysis would just an opinion.

This is probably 1/2 of the threads responses that are being made, but without any reference to why they think.

For me to just say I feel this is going to happen next week, would simply be a feeling, and the Cable has no feelings, and either should we.

I don't need anyone's feelings on what they think, I only care about the direction we are going, the direction in which we came. This can only be revealed by the present movement it is in, and the price at the moment it is at.

So please members, go ahead and state your action, but be prepared to prove it with some type of analysis that supports your opinions.

Thanks
  • #2,930
  • Jan 20, 2007 11:45am Jan 20, 2007 11:45am
Quoting cesarnc
If the market holds price around 97high / 98 low untill Wed, we will kiss 1.9 goodbye in the following 2 weeks.
sorry for interrupt, I'm kind of confused a bit with your statement...97high is 1.7156 and 98low is 1.6061...could you please explain a bit to me. Thanks cesar!
Be a sniper not a jumper
  • #2,931
  • Jan 20, 2007 11:47am Jan 20, 2007 11:47am
Quoting sierra
sorry for interrupt, I'm kind of confused a bit with your statement...97high is 1.7156 and 98low is 1.6061...could you please explain a bit to me. Thanks cesar!
Sorry about that... I meant staying at prices >9750 (high on the 97ers) or <9850 (low on the 98ers), not the year's high and low...

Oh, and the context in which I wrote that was the BOE meeting voting pro-hike (another 0.25%) on next Wed
  • #2,932
  • Jan 20, 2007 11:59am Jan 20, 2007 11:59am
Quoting cesarnc
Sorry about that... I meant staying at prices >9750 (high on the 97ers) or <9850 (low on the 98ers), not the year's high and low...

Oh, and the context in which I wrote that was the BOE meeting voting pro-hike (another 0.25%) on next Wed
thanks for the explanation, loud and clear..
Be a sniper not a jumper
  • #2,933
  • Jan 20, 2007 12:07pm Jan 20, 2007 12:07pm
Quoting cesarnc
Coudn't have said it better...

This Friday, while I was watching the market ranging I decided to stay out for a few more time before making a decision, when I saw something like Short @ XXX (don't recall), TP 9497.... I go WOW and spent another hour trying to figure out how the heck it was going to happen still on this Friday...

That's why those bold calls mess up with the thread. I'm still naive enough to think "wooow, what do they know that I don't?"

I don't ask for charts or whatever, just make those calls clear for others to go on learning, as I am trying to.

Hey, see you on February, then. $16K richer than you morons that will spend the next two weeks in this forum begging for a few pips......
ok that was my call so let me claify,this is a short term forcast two to three days as long as price stays below 1.9750 looking for 200 pip profit .the price droped below 1.9700 this is a bearish sign locked in fifty pips profit by taking 3/4 of my lots off the table price must maintain below 1.9750 to remain bearish ,a decisive break above 1.9750 by fifty pips and I will consider this to be a very bullish indication and look to go long stop loss 19799 on that short. a move downwards 250 pips can easily take two three days even on a big mover like the pound because there is so much buying interest
  • #2,934
  • Jan 20, 2007 12:29pm Jan 20, 2007 12:29pm
Attachment


Base on my daily chart :
max high for monday 9832
max low for monday 9524 ( should clear fib 23 first=9609)

other consideration/thought :
a. mostly gbp/usd move around 120 pip, so if monday open around 9730 then :
1. if bullish then it can touch around 9850
2. if bearish then it can reach around 9610 ( fib 23 )
b. usd/jpn have reach new high since april 2003, tokyo sesion will tell something valuable in monday. (probably). new high or go down, should be conected with movement of gbp/usd.
c. mostly direction movement monday is clue for whole week.


This post i made because i confuse my self about how to act mostly in short term /daily trading, so i need to post this and need other thought to judment me. very welcome.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,935
  • Jan 20, 2007 12:34pm Jan 20, 2007 12:34pm
Attached Image
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,936
  • Jan 20, 2007 12:43pm Jan 20, 2007 12:43pm
Quoting notme32
chart
Liked your chart. I'd like to know what this fib's low/high are, thanks
  • #2,937
  • Jan 20, 2007 12:55pm Jan 20, 2007 12:55pm
Quoting cesarnc
Liked your chart. I'd like to know what this fib's low/high are, thanks
0 = high 9846 01 des 06
100 = low 8834 17-11-2006
daily chart

i add 11.8 and 80.9 on fib
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,938
  • Jan 20, 2007 1:01pm Jan 20, 2007 1:01pm
US Dollar - The price action in the US dollar over the past week suggests that there may no longer be any buyers left in the market. Nearly every piece of US economic data has surprised to the upside, highlighting the overall strength of the economy. Improvements have been seen everywhere from housing to manufacturing to the labor market, consumer spending and inflation. According to the University of Michigan Consumer confidence report, optimism hit a 3 year high in the month of January. Comments from Federal Reserve Presidents Hoenig and Bies also continued to confirm the market’s general belief that interest rates will remain unchanged throughout the first half of the year. Both Presidents felt that improvements in the economy should keep inflation risks skewed to the upside. All of this should have been very positive for the US dollar, but it wasn’t. Except for the Japanese Yen, the US dollar either lost value or remained unchanged against every other major currency. This counterintuitive price action can only be a result of either central bank buying or skepticism about how much longer this dollar rally can last. Technically, the inability of the EUR/USD to break below last Friday’s low has not helped either. A quiet data week ahead makes the chance that the US dollar could resume its prior rally even slimmer. The only major piece of data due for release is durable goods on Friday, but there are 2 wild cards worth watching. The first is oil. Crude prices are hovering slightly above the key $50 a barrel mark. Should it break below that, we could see oil prices spiral lower as stops get triggered, which would also send the US dollar higher. The second is President Bush. He will be giving his annual State of the Union Address on Wednesday. He is likely to pat himself on the back for the improvements in the economy, but without a Republican Congress, it will be interesting to see how he tackles the political and economic landscape going forward.

British Pound – It is clear that the rally in the British pound has become very exhausted given the currency’s lack of a reaction to the firm retail sales and money supply figures released this morning. Retail sales increased 1.1 percent in the month of December, which was close to double market expectations. Money supply growth was only slightly stronger than expected, rising 0.9 percent versus 0.8 percent expected. After the surprise interest rate hike earlier this week, these upside surprises have been essentially priced into the market. There was a very slim chance that the Bank of England would have raised rates if consumer spending was not strong. Instead, traders paid more attention to the softer mortgage data which points to potential weakness in the housing sector. After the drop in prices reported by the RICS and Halifax housing market surveys, the market has already become concerned about the stability of the UK housing sector. The mortgage data only exacerbates this worry and having been the sector that has led the recovery, it’s potential weakness has now become very worrisome.


Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...007-01-20.html
  • #2,939
  • Jan 20, 2007 1:20pm Jan 20, 2007 1:20pm
henrycarol,
thats was good explanation for me to see clear what or why,
what i get for a second read that explanation is change for weak usd is bigger than change for weak gbp, corect me if i am wrong , because english is not my prime lang, so i could be misunderstand to interpreted the writing.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,940
  • Jan 20, 2007 1:39pm Jan 20, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting notme32
henrycarol,
thats was good explanation for me to see clear what or why,
what i get for a second read that explanation is change for weak usd is bigger than change for weak gbp, corect me if i am wrong , because english is not my prime lang, so i could be misunderstand to interpreted the writing.
Oh I didn't write that, just took it from that source.

But yeah, what you mention is correct.
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