Technical Analysis Fallacy
Hi Lusan,
I agree with you dancing naked with EU (low spread..but mine is 3)...slow dance.....easier to learn how the market sway.....I've been watching your thread......you're a fast learner......As for GJ (9 pips spread
Your comfortable speed for GJ @ 5M sounds like driving at Formula One Circuit......50-100 pips movement.......not the comfortable speed for the faint hearted.
One of the crosses that provide good volatility yet spread is kept at 4 pips is EURJPY. One might want to consider trading this currency pair besides the majors. I have been trading this pair for a year and found it very good to trade with.
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., that my dances usually extend into that rollover time.You know, I tried watching the 3 Kingdoms to see correlation between all the pairs and cross-pairs (as fti had suggested that I reconsider doing, since I had brought my opinions up before about being distracted by having to watch what other kingdoms were doing, lol), so I did give it another try for a while, cuz I wanted to keep an open mind about it, but I again encountered a few times where they were so out of sync with each other, that I just can't see how it would be useful/reliable to use it for any type of analysis.
And since I felt it was unreliable, and wasn't going to be using it to make any type of decisions on my dancing, what was the point to watching them? lol. (haha, fti is going to scold me, but that's just my experience having tried implementing that 3 kingdom thingy in my dance
For me, the fact that it's been unreliable even if only a few times, yet at any given time, is reason for me to prefer sticking with keeping my focus on the PA of the currency pair I am currently dancing and nothing else, because no matter what, by looking at what the other kingdoms are doing, it means that you are going to be basing something on it, and so what then happens if they decide to go out of sync (which if you've been watching them enough, must have seen them do, as I have)?
>>>that is my problem. Prior to entering into the trade, the information about other pairs might be useful. After entering, this is a real trouble for me because I need to focus, let go of a conception and to deliver my soul to PA. Dance, dance, dance. What is the use of the out of sync, when my eye are lovingly resting on 5M legs and telling me..."Lusan, I will rest now"... and she go to bed in front of my eyes"...What to do? ...Get out quick, quick, a reversal is coming... AAAAh...
How can using the 3 Kingdoms help us with our dancing in the moment if sometimes they do go out of sync?
>>>Actually, I think that it might be useful during the analysis part, prior to the actual trading...If you are the type that wait for the right moment to enter into the trade...I suspect...At the beginning of my forex experience, I have the majors always in the screen together with rsi, sto, ema, and dx, ...they were useless and a total distraction...so I dumped them fast and populated my screen with different time frames...
fti ... I don't mean to go against your training on this, but can you disagree with my assessment? Because I'm sure you've seen them out of sync in the past, as well.
I guess the only reason I am bringing this up, is because if people start letting the 3 kingdoms influence their dancing, just be mindful, because they do go out of sync once in a while. I guess because of this fact, I just don't see it being as any more useful as fundamentals (as we know, those tend to be unreliable, too, as we experienced in the last month with all this FED thingys and the US$'s decline, yet the forex market not doing what it should, given those fundamentals, lol).
As far is trading more than one currency pair goes ... I changed my mindset about that one, too, haha. At first I was only trading E/J and no other pair, but then after doing my spreadsheet and trading just the cheaper pairs (the ones with no more than 100 margin debit) to always have the maximum amount of troop/lots available for dancing, I have found that as long as I just concentrate on how I dance the PA at the moment, there's no difference to me, in whether I get to know the currency pair better or not.
>>>This is my suspicious too, but I do not have time to check ithis out when I am IN...When I trade I am totally inmerse on the action otherwise I would not listen to the 5M music..
The last month or two has proved to me even moreso that there's NO particular way any pair moves, there's no pattern set in stone, it's as we have been saying all along ... the market is unpredictable, no fundamental or TA is 100% reliable in determining where it's going to go, so I have come to the conclusion that I have to just trade in the "NOW"
>>>Oh...Zen meditation for you!
and not believe that I'm ever going to get to know better or understand more easily, any of these pairs like the back of my hand, because they are too temperamental. Just when you think you've gotten to know them better, they do something totally unexpected, lol.
>>>I have that feeling too.
I have a feeling many might have experienced some major losses in the last month or two, due to the temperament and wildness of the market going against what should have been otherwise dictated by the fundamentals.
Anyway, that's just what I've been experiencing so far with my dancing. I've finally just told myself to not have any expectations on what any of these currency pairs are going to do or not do. I just have to let the PA take me where it's going to take me and just dance with it as best I can at that given moment.
Thus, my actual dancing has got to be on the 5m charts, yet referring to the higher timeframes for trend direction/determination, and to bank whatever pips I can before the tide turns on me.
My spreadsheet has helped to remind me to not be greedy and to just be consistent and steadily bank at least 15 - 20 pips per troop per trade, and eventually my journey will be fruitful.
I just want to make trading simple and not have too many distractions with influencing my decisions, so although I trade one pair at any given time (I don't look at any others while I'm trading), but after each trade is done, I have several pairs to pick from when starting a new dance.
I also pick them according to which direction I would be going in at any given time. For example, when I get up in the morning and I look at my charts, and let's say I have a choice between U/J or A/U, but I would need to go SHORT for U/J and LONG for A/U, I'd pick A/U to go into because I have a positive rollover rate for that pair yet a negative rollover rate for U/J. I'm in a timezone (and I still can't dance as fast as luSan or fti
>>>I love this idea...Something to think about and explore on demo time. So you ask yourself every morning, "Which pair should I trade?" ...Ha...
This is also why I scrapped the higher priced pairs like E/J, E/U, G/U, because they use up more margin debit, thus they don't allow me to utilize my maximize all around potential/benefits with troop/lot distribution. As long as I keep dancing well and not make any stupid decisions/moves, and keep banking my consistent pips, none of that other stuff (fundamentals, watching 3 kingdoms, etc.) matters.
>>>Leigh, we are in trouble. I agree with you...merging with the time frame...NOW...the rest is just....a big distraction.
{ :: Oh boy, Leigh knows that fti is going to get out his bazooka on her now, aye yai yai :: }
Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. See you on the other side.
I may think differently from you guys, but maybe, just maybe its still good that you look at the yen and the cable too, no need to trade them but get the nuance on their movements and a good feel of them, we are after all still learning, might as well place them when doing our practicals.
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However, what I do think is very helpful is keeping track enough so you know when U/J and G/U are moving in the same direction together at the same time. When that happens you can expect higher volatility in G/J and thus larger, faster movements. Movements in U/J tend to affect movement in G/J to a greater degree than G/U. So I don't look for large pip movements on G/J if I only have G/U moving in the direction of the PA in G/J. Etc Etc.
:(ex: I've seen E/U and G/U go opposite of each other when normally they go in sync, and times when U/J went in sync with one and not the other and then in sync with both, and then not in sync with one or both, etc.)
: EJ and GJ instead of UJ and take advantage of the large volatilty to make more $. Coz ur basically trading the same PA. 
