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Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting alexfot
Hi, fti!
I'd like to ask a question, it might be a stupid one. Is it possible for Fed, or maybe for 1 tier bank(banks), to move the price down by buying, and to move it up by making sells. The reason I'm asking, because sometimes I have a feeling that this is happening, from time to time on the market. If it's impossible, which most likely is, then just say No.
Alex
Hi Alexfot

The feds do interfere with market. Especially when dollar gets bad news and then strengthens instead of weakening, you know the PPT is in action.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
Well I've probably got more insight over the past few days than in the last 2 years.
My sense of trend is awful - wrong every time on 5 trades now (in demo). Interestingly enough they could all be rescued. I've thrown out my indicators and now I am doubting simple things like trend lines - so the experiment goes one step futher - I'm throwing the baby out with the bath water - all that will be left is the tub. This is trading nihilism and part of me really likes it - the other part is terrified.
What about other folks in this thread - what props if any do you use - or is it really down to the feel and MM.

regards
Irregular
Quoting luSan
What about Oanda? it has no time limits and you could do any lot sizing.

Enjoy.
Thanks for the suggestion luSan. I danced with spirals today and netted a few hundred pips so I was quite pleased with it. I couldn't bring myself to going demo so I just went live with micro-lots instead.

I've decided to stick with MT4. I know it's pretty bad with this type of trading (out of the box) but it is actually very flexible. I've met some MT4 programmers here on FF so once I get a bit more practice I might ask someone to program some hot keys and display information that works well with this system. For instance, having an average line with the value displayed on the screen and buy/sell buttons (plus hotkeys) to snowball and rescue. It should end up being better than anything on offer when compared to other bro-ker platforms.

I'll post the programs here once done.

mijamoto, yes - my children/family always celebrate Christmas twice and generally two Easters (but sometimes they fall on the same day). My wife is from New Zealand.
Quoting bigblue
Well I've probably got more insight over the past few days than in the last 2 years.
My sense of trend is awful - wrong every time on 5 trades now (in demo). Interestingly enough they could all be rescued. I've thrown out my indicators and now I am doubting simple things like trend lines - so the experiment goes one step futher - I'm throwing the baby out with the bath water - all that will be left is the tub. This is trading nihilism and part of me really likes it - the other part is terrified.
What about other folks in this thread - what props if any do you use - or is it really down to the feel and MM.

regards
Welcome to nakeness!!! That is exactly what I did. No props. NOTHING.

Now the big question: how are YOU going to trade? It is just PA, you and yourself.

It is MO, MM and PA. That is it.

Good luck.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
Quoting bigblue
Well I've probably got more insight over the past few days than in the last 2 years.
My sense of trend is awful - wrong every time on 5 trades now (in demo). Interestingly enough they could all be rescued. I've thrown out my indicators and now I am doubting simple things like trend lines - so the experiment goes one step futher - I'm throwing the baby out with the bath water - all that will be left is the tub. This is trading nihilism and part of me really likes it - the other part is terrified.
What about other folks in this thread - what props if any do you use - or is it really down to the feel and MM.

regards
Hi bigblue

I'm completely naked now. What is most important to me is feeling the market but I am still using some technical analysis visually (but nothing on the chart).

As I was dancing today I could see at times the market was consolidating so I zoomed out to the 15M and saw some S/R. As I could sense price would continue in my direction I snowballed at those points. Eventually I could sense it had enough so I just closed everything and as it turned out, I managed to enter near the low and closed near the high on GBP/JPY during the London session. A range of about 200 pips but with a light attack sequence, it worked out quite well.

When I first started trading, I spent my first year on a naked 5 min chart and apart from the first few trades, I was pretty lousy and it kept getting worse. Even when I managed to get a good entry, I was too greedy and always looked for the big ones - so as it turned out, most of my trades were losers (even if they were in good profit). What I remember though, is when the market started moving against me, I could sense something was not right. There is something within us that guides us, but we need to listen and act. We also need lots of practice - watching and dancing with the market.

All the best to you and good to see your rescues working out well.
Hi to all,

Starting to dance naked but just don't know whether I'm really dancing the correct manner or not. I send it scout..... when it goes against my way...send it rescue troops and exit asap even with a slight loss(sometimes). Usually bring my troops home after 15-20 pips gains.....sometimes missed some big waves....regretting to have pull out too early...

Honestly speaking, after throwing out all these indicators....I think I've improved tremendously by watching PA.....Kudos to FTI....Any suggestions or comments are welcome.
Quoting Zoran
When I first started trading, I spent my first year on a naked 5 min chart and apart from the first few trades, I was pretty lousy and it kept getting worse. Even when I managed to get a good entry, I was too greedy and always looked for the big ones - so as it turned out, most of my trades were losers (even if they were in good profit). What I remember though, is when the market started moving against me, I could sense something was not right. There is something within us that guides us, but we need to listen and act. We also need lots of practice - watching and dancing with the market.

All the best to you and good to see your rescues working out well.
Nice Words, Zoran

What I learned during few years of forex trading (I think it is most important lesson for me), When I see Profit, especially snowballed profit, and I see first signs of just slowing down market I immediately took all snowballed troops with profits, except first scout. If there is no sign to re-enter, I take him out too. If I can re-enter I snowball again
I found that it is much easier to snowball few times in a row (each 5 min for example), than to guess if market turns other direction.

I aggressively take profits (hit and run, Raider tactics)

FTI:
One question
for example I have 1 scout in profit, send second
Trend goes against me,
I found useful to close 1st scout with small profit at breakeven because it is easier to rescue with less lossing positions
Am i right in this way?

Thank you in advance
it's o'k to win ...
Quoting doremi
Hi to all,

Starting to dance naked but just don't know whether I'm really dancing the correct manner or not. I send it scout..... when it goes against my way...send it rescue troops and exit asap even with a slight loss(sometimes). Usually bring my troops home after 15-20 pips gains.....sometimes missed some big waves....regretting to have pull out too early...

Honestly speaking, after throwing out all these indicators....I think I've improved tremendously by watching PA.....Kudos to FTI....Any suggestions or comments are welcome.

Doremi.

If you follow luSans methods you wont go far wrong.

Remember to confirm your direction of entry with a higher time frame & don't attempt a rescue until you see an about turn (reverse).

AT this moment in time ( 08.05 GMT )I have just banked 51 pips trading EUR/USD short confirmed by hourly, I still have my scout out in the market and he is making good progress, I will average in as each small retrace takes place & average out on each stall in momentum.

Find your own way from fti's postings, he is truely a good tutor.

For myself I do use one or more the MA's mentioned in the above postings, to these I add fib levels, this works very well for me because as yet I don't have the full confidence to trade completely naked.

Take care, the market can be a beast.

Regards.

BabeFX.

I am wrong until the market proves me right. (POP Phantom of the Pits).
Quoting BabeFX
Doremi.

Find your own way from fti's postings, he is truely a good tutor.
An a tough one!
His methods asks us to learn by doing...we need to practice, practice, and practice...As far as I understand, there is no a right or wrong way to do it, but a well defined strategy leading to a "pro" mindset...practice and after a while we will ask ourself how come we did not see it before...

I just finished trading, time to go to bed...Some quick naked punches and 40 pips in the bank... What a rollocoaster!

Enjoy the dance.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
Image awaken up at 3:30 am...for my 5M trading meditation...very sleepy I log into my account and I see these charts!...I would think that I am having a neightmare !!!...I short...I short...I go back to sleep....maybe I wake up!
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
Quoting auxesis
My style is really not as rigid as it appears in the post and charts, they were just to give an overall approach. Jmho, but each of us when we enter use some form of methodology either consciously or subconsciously to give us the signal to long or short or stand aside. This is just the framework from where I start.
Actually, I wasn't worried so much as to your dancing (entries/exits/directions). I was only worried as to the timeframe you were trading on (the Daily).

As jest mentioned ...

Quoting jest
1. longer timeframes, which results in playing bigger swings trends, imo, its no good coz the further price is from the rescues, the harder it is to manage sizing.
That's been the scary part with doing fti's method with longer-term, higher timeframes.

That's all. That's the only thing I was worried about for you

Zoran was having the same stance a while back (he wanted to implement parts of fti's method with the longer-term, higher timeframes) and we all had this same discussion back then, lol. I'm not sure, but seeing he's now back on the 5m, I think he finally saw the light :

With long-term, higher timeframe trading, the battle and large amount of troops needed for rescues can be scary due to the distance can be hundreds and even as much as thousands of pips away. You definitely need HUGE and probably MULTIPLE balls of steel for that kind of numbers, lol.

Anyway, if you can make it work for you, let us know, as it would be valuable for those wanting to do more longer term.
WoW, sitoca ... good to see you made it out of your extensive battle alive!! Good work!

---------

Okay, I got the go ahead from fti to post my spreadsheet.

The spreadsheet should be self-explanatory if you read the instructions located there carefully, however post your questions and comments here if you have any. Please DO NOT PM me with questions, cuz it will be too time consuming to have to answer the same questions over-and-over again. As mentioned before, I really do not have the time to do that kind of intensive PM addressing. I thank you for your cooperation and understanding!

Just a few explanations about the spreadsheet ...

I show 5 different "Hypothetical" scenarios. The Hypothetical sheets are only there to review when not trading. Once you find the Hypothetical scenario that you like and suits your account capital, then enter the Hypothetical number in the Actual Trades sheet's designated area to select it for your guidance. You will understand what I am referring to when you open up the spreadsheet.

On the Hypothetical sheets, I have formulas that calculate when to do a Withdrawal, however when you are on the Actual Trades sheet when doing your actual trades, you can enter a Withdrawal any time you want. However, you will affect the compounding, so the Hypothetical sorta gives you an idea of when and how much, as an example.

For the sequences/progression, I use the same for both attack and rescue (it seems to work for me with how I dance). There are 5 Lot Entry Sequences, however I only use maximum of 4 of them if possible. So far, for me, #3 and #4 Lot Entry Sequences work for rescuing the previous lot sequences, as well as implementing for attacks. The #5 Lot Entry Sequence is entered ONLY in case of emergency rescue. Again, #5 should NOT be entered unless absolutely necessary.

If I ever have to enter #5, then I either lessen my load or Exit completely (should I feel that the PA is reversing totally) at break even (B/E). I DO NOT try to make large profit with the #5 Lot Entry Sequence because I cannot miss the B/E opportunity with having that many troops in the battle. Lessening the load at B/E alleviates any stress should the PA continue to move against me, cuz I would then be able to conduct rescues again should I need to.

Here's an example Lot Entry Sequence --> .1, .1, .2, 1.6, (6.0)
Here's how you can do a reverse progression to take profit --> .8, .5, .3, .2, .1, .1

(NOTE: The above is a similar attack and take profit sequence that fti used in one of his examples. But with using fractional lots for conservative/safe MM - especially for those of us without deep pockets.)

The last sequence (shown in parenthesis) would be the #5 Lot Entry Sequence which would be used for emergency rescue ONLY.

The reverse progression is not going to be shown on the spreadsheet (only the Lot Entry Sequences are shown), so you have to just do your take profits as you see fit as you dance.

The above is using "Hypothetical 1" sequence. I am actually using "Hypothetical 5" (that's the default on the spreadsheet, so you will have to change it to use a different "Hypothetical" sequence of your own choosing).

The Margin Debit per Lot will matter depending on the currency pair you trade. I am now only trading the smaller margined pairs that have 100 margin debit per lot (ex: U/J, A/U, N/U, U/CAD, U/CHF). I found that they give me the maximum lots at my disposal to make the sequences most efficient. I trade only ONE currency pair at a time.

You can enter/delete any input in colored cells, but don't touch the white cells unless you know how to write Excel formulas and need to change them to fit your needs.

For those who do not use brokers who charge commission, you can just "HIDE" those columns to get them out of your way.

I haven't finished conducting my 20 quantifying trades yet, but I figured I'd send out the spreadsheet if fti approves of it, so you guys can start playing with it yourselves in case it helps anybody with their sequence, MM and income projections. So far it's working nicely for me.

Oh, and on the Hypothetical sheets ... scroll down each to see what your potential can be if you do the minimum pips shown there (and that's with using fractional lots on a mini account at 100:1 leverage, and $1,200 starting account value!). Even if you have $5,000 "actual" account to work with, enter an amount LESS than what you actually have, for the safest MM possible.

You can play around with the Pips count to see various outcomes, but I used a minimum (15 or 20) to show the potential with even those conservative pip banking. The pips are per troop, not total pips by all troops.

Oh, and for the fun of it ... see what it looks like if you enter a larger starting Account Value (ex: $2,500 - for those who have $10,000 or more of "actual" capital to work with).

Even for those with larger capital to work with, you can still use the fractional lot sequence for safe/conservative MM (1 lot = $10,000, so .1 lot = $1,000, 100:1 leverage). As you will see, your account will grow substantially and fast with the compounding, yet starting out with the most conservative/safe lot sequence will give you NO stress or fear with conducting rescues, lol.

Okay, hope you guys like the spreadsheet and find it useful. However, if at any time fti says, "Don't use it," we should adhere to his wishes since he's training us to be "Pros" at this game/business
.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Leighs Forex Spreadsheet.xls   748 KB | 1,747 downloads
leighsww,

Nice piece of work that I will try out with a demo account. I like your sequence of .1-.1-.2- etc...I am sure that it will help us to do some strategical modeling.

1) I use 30:1 margin...your calculations are for 100:1, how to I account for it? I am not yet explore different margin, which I will, How do we change it in your matrix?

2) How do I change the attack and defence sequence? I use 1-2-3 at this time but I will be exploring and adapting it. Sometimes I do 1-2-9, which getting toward your 1-1-2-16

Oh lord...I have not yet understood the thing and I am already trying to improve it... My apology...still I dance so fast that I need to keep adapting to my learning...apology again

Thanks ONE THOUSAND TIME,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
LOL, luSan ... I can add additional Hypothetical sequences if you want, but I actually removed some cuz there ended up being too many choices and would be confusing to say the least, lol. And also, certain ones didn't come out to enough lots for safely doing #5 Lot Entry Sequence rescue for the small amount ($1,200) of trading capital used for the spreadsheet (for safe/conservative MM).

I even tried having a #6 Lot Entry Sequence but that had problems with insufficient #5 and #6 Lot Entry Sequences in the case of rescue mode.

I had to do a lot of trial-and-error with calculations/formulas to get the numbers to come out right, lol. My husband is too busy with his own work, so I had to do this spreadsheet on my own, haha. Hopefully, my math formulas are right.

Tell me what sequence you want to use and I'll see what I can do for customizing a new Hypothetical sheet for you to the way you dance. Also, let me know what your maximum amount of lots you can use per trade would be, cuz the math will have to calculate out correctly for the #5 Lot Entry Sequence (or a possible #6 Lot Entry Sequence if you have deep enough pockets, lol).

As far as your leverage, that's a good point. I know not everyone uses 100:1, so I'll have to see about how to implement that into the spreadsheet.

Just so I can get the math right and double-check the accuracy after I do the formulas, please give me answers to the following questions:

1) What is your margin debit for ONE lot only for USD/JPY?

2) Give me the following statistics on a trade for USD/JPY:

a) Total lots you ended up using for the trade.

b) Pips per lot you made (you will need to take an average to give me the "per troop/lot" amount, in the case you have been only using "totals". Since my spreadsheet is using "per lot" for the "Pips" column, I need that as is.

c) Profit ($ value) amount you made for that trade.

You can PM it to me if you don't want to post it here.

With the above info, I can then make sure that my formulas are coming out correctly to your data output, lol. As I said, I'm not as mathematically inclined as some, so it helps for me to have something to compare that my output is the same as your output, to make sure I did the calculations/formulas correctly :

I should post my Actual Trades sheet of my trades so far, so you guys can get a better idea of how the spreadsheet works and to get a better understanding of it.

Okay, I'll be back later with that.
Just so you have an idea of how the spreadsheet works, I've attached my Actual Trades so far.

Starting Account Value should be an amount LESS than your actual account capital. This is very important for safe/conservative MM. Don't be in a rush and get greedy or too aggressive, cuz if you steadily and consistently make profits per trade, and stay within a safe guideline for what you can afford, you will get to a point of wealth in no time. Again, just be consistent in making winning trades. I've entered a minimum 15 - 20 pips per troop for the Hypothetical projections, so just imagine if you sometimes make 30 - 40+ pips per troop per trade

But, DON'T get greedy to the point you start losing what you're winning, because consistency is the KEY, as you will see by the projected results of the Hypothetical sheets.

Okay, here's some explanations of my trades so far ...

Trade #1 was a #5 Lot Entry Sequence rescue that turned into good profit only because the PA moved fast at that particular time, thus I didn't have to exit at B/E only. However, if the PA was moving slow, or was going the other way again, I would have exited earlier as I don't like to have that many troops in, because I don't want to ever have to implement an even larger scale rescue mission.

Trade's #1 thru #5 were done using a different "Hypothetical" sheet than the one currently shown. I had decided to change my sequence to "Hypothetical 5," due to the previous one used a little more lots/troops than I felt comfy with (in the case of having to implement #5 Lot Entry Sequence rescue mission).

Trade #5 was small profit taking, because the dang trade lasted so long that I had to cook dinner, lol, thus exited the trade at small profit since I couldn't babysit it. However, I must confess, there are times I have actually left the baby unattended (hehe) BUT I put an alert on, when it gets to a price where I would need to take an action, however when I cook, I have the stove vent going, so I can't hear the alert, lol.

Trade #7 had a high commission (yeesh!) because I had to conduct #5 Lot Entry Sequence rescue and this time I lessened the load at B/E - I took out 5.6 lots and left in 1.6 lots, and continued the dance for a profit at the 4 Lot Entry Sequence levels (which is my normal goal for taking profits with keeping with my projected Hypothetical compounding sample - it calculates only #1, #2, #3 & #4 Lot Entry Sequences for taking profit).

Trade #8 - Haven't completed yet. Only the Margin Debit per Lot is entered before starting a new trade, so that I know what my Lot Entry Sequence will be depending on the Max. Lots Available to Trade data.

Oh, and if anyone catches any formula/calculation errors in the spreadsheet, PLEASE let me know so I can correct it immediately. THANKS!

Okay, that's it. Much success to your trading everyone!

fti ... I made a change to the spreadsheet and added the ROI column, so you'll want to download the one I posted several posts above, since you don't have the latest version (in case you needed to study it further ).
.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Leighs Trades.pdf   18 KB | 1,926 downloads
Oh, and one more thing I want to say ...

We should all strive to dance more like fti and luSan, cuz the shorter the battles, the better (I'm workin' on making my dance steps shorter, lol!!
Quoting auxesis
However the concept of trading from the “void” is a very interesting idea.
Hi auxesis

I've known you for quite some time and have a reasonable understanding of your background.

I'm sure you realise that you can't learn to ride a bike by reading a book. At some point we all have to get on, fall off and keep trying until we get it. That's when a true sense of understanding comes to us. When it came to fti's dancing I thought I could understand by reading but I didn't until I actually tried. I kept putting it off because of work commitments but in the end it had only taken about 30 mins of naked dancing before I finally got it.

Imagine driving a car on the motorway/highway/freeway but someone instructs you not to look through your windscreen but to look at some indicators on your dashboard. On it you also have historical traffic information and from that you can kind of guess where to slow down, where to stop and where to speed up. Traffic conditions change during the seasons, days of week and weather conditions. Perhaps today is raining so looking at your indicators you predict traffic is going to be slower and bottlenecks may be longer. So you may get it right at times but there will be conditions that you did not expect and that will mess up your indicators.

What fti is saying is to drop all those indicators, historical information and predictions and just look out of your windscreen. This is not trading from the "void" but trading what you see and feel. The market will tell you when the traffic is speeding up or slowing down. You can then accelerate or apply the brakes but you won't know until you clear your mind, bring up a naked chart and start to dance.

Once you learn to dance, some of the information on your dash may come to use (technical analysis) but unless you are watching through the windscreen it's nothing more than guesswork.

Hope that helps.
Quoting leighsww
Zoran was having the same stance a while back (he wanted to implement parts of fti's method with the longer-term, higher timeframes) and we all had this same discussion back then, lol. I'm not sure, but seeing he's now back on the 5m, I think he finally saw the light :
I did consider longer timeframes at one point but I was obviously still blind at that time.

So while I'm still on the motorway, the 5min seems to be the speed of the traffic. Our brains can process it fairly well so lets say we are doing 70mph. Go to the 1min and everything speeds up so while most others are doing 70mph we are speeding at 200mph and out reaction time will not be as good so accidents are more likely.

Now if we go to the 4hr or daily, we are now doing 1mph. Who has the patience to sit and watch at that speed? What happens if your entry comes whilst sleeping in the back seat?

So my point is to dance at a comfortable speed and that seems to be the 5min for me.
wow leighsww thanks for the spreadsheet and trade history, it is very interesting to see how differently people are trading this concept and what returns/risks they have. I'll post later on over the weekend how I've been trading it so we can compare.
Quoting Zoran
Hi auxesis

I've known you for quite some time and have a reasonable understanding of your background.

I'm sure you realise that you can't learn to ride a bike by reading a book. At some point we all have to get on, fall off and keep trying until we get it. That's when a true sense of understanding comes to us. When it came to fti's dancing I thought I could understand by reading but I didn't until I actually tried. I kept putting it off because of work commitments but in the end it had only taken about 30 mins of naked dancing before I finally got it.

Imagine driving a car on the motorway/highway/freeway but someone instructs you not to look through your windscreen but to look at some indicators on your dashboard. On it you also have historical traffic information and from that you can kind of guess where to slow down, where to stop and where to speed up. Traffic conditions change during the seasons, days of week and weather conditions. Perhaps today is raining so looking at your indicators you predict traffic is going to be slower and bottlenecks may be longer. So you may get it right at times but there will be conditions that you did not expect and that will mess up your indicators.

What fti is saying is to drop all those indicators, historical information and predictions and just look out of your windscreen. This is not trading from the "void" but trading what you see and feel. The market will tell you when the traffic is speeding up or slowing down. You can then accelerate or apply the brakes but you won't know until you clear your mind, bring up a naked chart and start to dance.

Once you learn to dance, some of the information on your dash may come to use (technical analysis) but unless you are watching through the windscreen it's nothing more than guesswork.

Hope that helps.
This is real poetry!!
Zen...zen...zen...be here Now...
PA, you and yourself!

Zoran...I will always remember this...thanks from my heart..
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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