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  • #5,961
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:27am Mar 28, 2008 10:27am
Quoting Küster
I would expect this triangle to take us up to the 1.59.. area.
It might, There is also a nice head-and-shoulders pattern pointing for a break to 1.59. However, I doubt anything major can happen on this slow Friday. Recently, EUR grew a habit of bad performance starting on Friday European session. Profit taking at the end of the week?
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #5,962
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:48am Mar 28, 2008 10:48am
IF we get a break up, I would aim for a target of 1.597. Only time will tell what the next trigger will be, short or long.
  • #5,963
  • Mar 28, 2008 11:43am Mar 28, 2008 11:43am
Okay, I couldn't resist the opportunity for a few quick pips off what looks like an good bounce on the 5M chart.
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  • #5,964
  • Mar 28, 2008 12:07pm Mar 28, 2008 12:07pm
Quoting MrFuture
Now the 62ema (1hr) is sitting right on 7550....if it crosses both, we might head for a run down...I hope not 'cause I am long, but this is what usually happens when 62ema gets penetrated.....

Here's the thing, everybody is talking about it reaching 1.60, some say 1.62, so that's what's keeping the longs, yet, at the same time, we are not getting bad enough news from here, the USA, to actually move it to 1.60, so that's were you have the shorts.....just looking at the 1hr chart gives you a perfect image of the indecision....it seems as if every other candle is the opposite color, up, down, up, down.......
I kept telling every one last month that this month the news would look better. And next month will show more improvement.
Why? How do I know this for sure?
Its spring time. People have to spend more money in the spring. Kids out grew last years clothes, lawn and garden stuff, out doors activities the list is seasonal spending is endless. So the increased spending just on the season alone will make the $ correct more, but then you have rate cuts and increased tax returns coming back soon to that will also add to the increased spending. When people see improvements, they'll spend more, and snow ball effect the $ right back to being strong again.
Everything happens in cycles. Every year it cycles back, 10 years, 20 years, 100 years. Cycles with in cycles. The market is no different.

Price structure keeps looking more and more like a top. I said before, when a top forms you'll know it. You won't have to guess at it. And if the trend continues you'll know that too when it happens. But right now is no different than last night, still in the same triangle and there can always be that last rally up before it drops, could have already happened today, but can't tell as long as its in the triangle. Too soon for short or long position unless you try to trade the choppy range.
  • #5,965
  • Mar 28, 2008 12:53pm Mar 28, 2008 12:53pm
Got a nice 20 pips off the bounce. I don't really advise trading like this, but it is Friday and the market is going nowhere and I was bored. I only trade the EU now, so I have a pretty good "feel" for it. Good observations from David on the future of the USD. Be aware of the fundimentals and trust your charts!
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  • #5,966
  • Mar 28, 2008 12:59pm Mar 28, 2008 12:59pm
sometimes... market goes in the opposite direction of the fundamentals.... just for fun... waiting for the smart bulls and bears hidden in the corners...
  • #5,967
  • Mar 28, 2008 1:16pm Mar 28, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting Küster
I would expect this triangle to take us up to the 1.59.. area.
I agree with you. EUR/USD is now in a correction triangle. We should see 1.59 or even 1.6 next week.
  • #5,968
  • Mar 28, 2008 1:19pm Mar 28, 2008 1:19pm
Quoting emda
sometimes... market goes in the opposite direction of the fundamentals.... just for fun... waiting for the smart bulls and bears hidden in the corners...
Very true. I try have some idea the economics just so I am not taken by surprise, but I always trust my charts to show me the right direction. I fall on the technical side of that age old argument.
  • #5,969
  • Mar 28, 2008 1:46pm Mar 28, 2008 1:46pm
Hi All,

Greetings,
I have read every opinions in this group for some time & I found out that these discussions are very useful.

I am new to fx and right now I use daily chart to analyze the trend and 4 hr chart to set support & resistance.

From daily, I see that the price is still in triangle, but do not exceed the resistance line. Therefore there might be a double top pattern forming. The problem is, I can not be sure until the closing price break down the SMA 10 at about 1.5635. It will be wiser to wait until we have full confirmation before jump to any conclusion. If double top is confirmed and the price break neckline at 1.5398 next target is about 400p down. if price is break up triangle .... I am still not sure what is the target price, but must be breaking 1.6xxx barrier.

I have to admit that I have bias in this opinion, since I have short position at 1.44xx and only hedge long (after a lot of mistakes) at 1.523. Learning real trading can cost very dearly ....... if we can not make maintain a strict discipline
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Always Set Stop Loss !! Trade what you see .... Not what you think !!
  • #5,970
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:36pm Mar 28, 2008 2:36pm
Quoting t3ric
Hi All,

Greetings,
I have read every opinions in this group for some time & I found out that these discussions are very useful.

I am new to fx and right now I use daily chart to analyze the trend and 4 hr chart to set support & resistance.

From daily, I see that the price is still in triangle, but do not exceed the resistance line. Therefore there might be a double top pattern forming. The problem is, I can not be sure until the closing price break down the SMA 10 at about 1.5635. It will be wiser to wait until we have full confirmation before jump to any conclusion. If double top is confirmed and the price break neckline at 1.5398 next target is about 400p down. if price is break up triangle .... I am still not sure what is the target price, but must be breaking 1.6xxx barrier.

I have to admit that I have bias in this opinion, since I have short position at 1.44xx and only hedge long (after a lot of mistakes) at 1.523. Learning real trading can cost very dearly ....... if we can not make maintain a strict discipline
First of all, Welcome! And good observations, btw. I think a lot of people are waiting for the triangle to break, so staying out is a good idea at the moment. Today has been a day for scalpers, no doubt, even though I only came up with 3% or so today. Better than a loss...

Learning FX can indeed be a very costly educational process. I decided last year that I was going to quit my job and trade for a living... until I lost about 15k in less than an hour. No job, no money, but very very valuable lessons had been learned. I am back on track again now, working and trading on the side, and withdrawing 75% of my weekly profits every Friday. This is the best method I have come up with so far, in terms of securing profit and not risking my neck on every trade. At any rate, good luck to you.
  • #5,971
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:52pm Mar 28, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting PhorPhunn
Learning FX can indeed be a very costly educational process. I decided last year that I was going to quit my job and trade for a living... until I lost about 15k in less than an hour. No job, no money, but very very valuable lessons had been learned.

It is amazing that most seasoned traders have similar stories. You really have to feel the pain of losing real money to learn that lesson. When I look back now at how little I knew then, I am amazed at how much I have learned. I am sure I will be able to say the same thing in the future too. Price is following my S and R lines very nicely, but without a clear trend I am out for the time being... Hope everybody has a nice weekend.
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  • #5,972
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:58pm Mar 28, 2008 2:58pm
Have to agree with everyone about this 100 pip box we're in at the moment. Boxes are good for range trading though. Buy/sell at the low/high respectively.

Caught a nice one this morning.
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  • #5,973
  • Mar 28, 2008 5:57pm Mar 28, 2008 5:57pm
Seems like EURUSD might be gathering some momentum. If it breaks from the current triangular congestion to the upside the bulls will probably have a second go to the 1.5900 historical high.
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  • #5,974
  • Mar 29, 2008 1:41pm Mar 29, 2008 1:41pm
If it breaks to the upside then 1.59 is gone and 1.6 is a pip away, and then even if just a random stop hunt manages to penetrate it for a moment positions are then likely to shift and up we go... But, I favour the bears for now. Maybe we'll end up with a big triangle like below 1.5 just a bit smaller.. Either way, when it moves I'm on it, long live E/U why ever trade other pairs ??
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,975
  • Mar 29, 2008 5:14pm Mar 29, 2008 5:14pm
I think, that eur/usd feels support on the facts, that ECB can't cut rates, becouse of growing inflation's risks. So, it's hard (may be impossible) in this situation try to make eure weaker and help exporting companies.
So, eur/usd 2.0000 depends of Trichet opinion: what's more important: inflation or companies profits?
Fundamental >> tachnical My ICQ# 318501111
  • #5,976
  • Mar 29, 2008 6:58pm Mar 29, 2008 6:58pm
Quoting PhorPhunn
First of all, Welcome! And good observations, btw. I think a lot of people are waiting for the triangle to break, so staying out is a good idea at the moment. Today has been a day for scalpers, no doubt, even though I only came up with 3% or so today. Better than a loss...

Learning FX can indeed be a very costly educational process. I decided last year that I was going to quit my job and trade for a living... until I lost about 15k in less than an hour. No job, no money, but very very valuable lessons had been learned. I am back on track again now, working and trading on the side, and withdrawing 75% of my weekly profits every Friday. This is the best method I have come up with so far, in terms of securing profit and not risking my neck on every trade. At any rate, good luck to you.
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  • #5,977
  • Mar 30, 2008 12:29am Mar 30, 2008 12:29am
Quoting WTB
Seems like EURUSD might be gathering some momentum. If it breaks from the current triangular congestion to the upside the bulls will probably have a second go to the 1.5900 historical high.

What would the neighbors think if it pulled this one again, like 3 months ago.
Actually, I'd be surprised to see it happen twice in a row like that with no alternation.
If many expect it to happen, it probably won't. I can't get bullish just yet.

Which one is the REAL triangle ??
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  • #5,978
  • Mar 30, 2008 1:50am Mar 30, 2008 1:50am
Quoting toshi
Which one is the REAL triangle ??
Time will tell, but I'd be carefull buying at the bigger lower line before it moves back up some, it could always continue south as in a double top...
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,979
  • Mar 30, 2008 7:01am Mar 30, 2008 7:01am
Quoting toshi
Which one is the REAL triangle ??
Each triangle must be consider within its respective appropriate time frame. That means that, in my humble opinion of course, we should not draw massive triangles in the 4H chart. If we're to search for longer price pattern, we ought first to zoom out to the Daily time frame - and in the Daily time frame there's no clear triangle to be found, just a regular fib bounce (note that hammer slapping the 38 fib) in the direction of the trend.

Like I say, every pattern should be considered within its appropriate time frame.
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  • #5,980
  • Mar 30, 2008 7:11am Mar 30, 2008 7:11am
Quoting WTB
Each triangle must be consider within its respective appropriate time frame. That means that, in my humble opinion of course, we should not draw massive triangles in the 4H chart. If we're to search for longer price pattern, we ought first to zoom out to the Daily time frame - and in the Daily time frame there's no clear triangle to be found, just a regular fib bounce (note that hammer slapping the 38 fib) in the direction of the trend.

Like I say, every pattern should be considered within its appropriate time frame.
WTB,

That bounce is more than just a little fib level.
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