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EURUSD

  • #5,941
  • Mar 28, 2008 5:26am Mar 28, 2008 5:26am
sometimes... triangles become rectangles... I have a road.. but I want a motorway !
  • #5,942
  • Mar 28, 2008 5:32am Mar 28, 2008 5:32am
"Dollar Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Against Euro in a Month"
  • #5,943
  • Mar 28, 2008 6:11am Mar 28, 2008 6:11am
Quoting emda
"Dollar Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Against Euro in a Month"

hhhh
but 15830 is very unlikely to be broken soon. i prefer a downside move
  • #5,944
  • Mar 28, 2008 6:12am Mar 28, 2008 6:12am
Couldn't resist to short near last top of triangle line at 815 then price jumped through and came 1-2 pips of my SL at 825, got out with 3 pips as it came down, a small fakeout - looks suspicous.. maybe just a bit of stop hunting and maybe the cheaters who know the news ahead of time at work (often you can see it like 2 minutes before the reports, if I keep seeing it like another 3-4 times I'm gonna start joining the ride for sure)..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,945
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:18am Mar 28, 2008 7:18am
Quoting Jurrasic
Couldn't resist to short near last top of triangle line at 815 then price jumped through and came 1-2 pips of my SL at 825, got out with 3 pips as it came down, a small fakeout - looks suspicous.. maybe just a bit of stop hunting and maybe the cheaters who know the news ahead of time at work (often you can see it like 2 minutes before the reports, if I keep seeing it like another 3-4 times I'm gonna start joining the ride for sure)..
I tried news trading (demo) for a while and it can go south in a hurry. What you are most likely seeing in the minutes before the news comes out is a setup for a turn around based on the news coming out as predicted or close. If the news varies greatly it can continue in the setup direction while your looking for a reversal. If you want to trade the news (This is only my observations, not a how to trade the news) wait until the spread drops closer to normal (less cost), look at the direction the pair is going (less risk) and get in if you feel so inclined. Typically news events that create movement will continue to do so for 20 minutes to 1-2 hours. See chart with most recent event. (5:30am CHF Leading Index m/m) The news isn't even directly related to this pair but there was still an effect. Could there be other drivers on this move? Yes and I haven't seen them yet but I'm still going through my pages.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-30 AM news.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #5,946
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:28am Mar 28, 2008 7:28am
Thanks FXGenius Not sure though that CHF news affected E/U like this, but who knows... In general, I don't want to trade news (tried it before, doesn't work for me), plus I've seen often anough how the larger trend was unnaffected or opposite the news. But, just recently there were several occasions when price started moving in the right direction before the news, maybe it's just a coincidence because it often starts moving somewhere anyway and just lucky guesses, but I'll keep my eye for this suspicious behaviour some more...

EDIT: See what I mean just now ? 2 minutes...
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,947
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:38am Mar 28, 2008 7:38am
Quoting Jurrasic
Thanks FXGenius Not sure though that CHF news affected E/U like this, but who knows... In general, I don't want to trade news (tried it before, doesn't work for me), plus I've seen often anough how the larger trend was unnaffected or opposite the news. But, just recently there were several occasions when price started moving in the right direction before the news, maybe it's just a coincidence because it often starts moving somewhere anyway and just lucky guesses, but I'll keep my eye for this suspicious behaviour some more...

I'm not sure either but this is a global market and at some level everything is tied together. CHF news impacts EUR/CHF, affects EUR/USD, EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY affects USD/JPY, etc. The impact might not be as big but it can be felt. I pay attention to all the news times on the FF calendar to see if there is an effect.

As far as the running start on news, I remember seeing that and if I remember correctly it was news that was far enough and bad enough from expected to continue the setup.
  • #5,948
  • Mar 28, 2008 7:47am Mar 28, 2008 7:47am
3 bounces from the 23.6 retracement... and break of the triangle up... Also brek of the green fork trendline.... so.. I don't see reasons to go short yet... I think it is going to wait until the last news of the week from USD.. and then break up for new levels...

the break of the triangle .. gives a target about 1.5940...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 3.png Size: 26 KB
  • #5,949
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:26am Mar 28, 2008 8:26am
Should've stayed out before a more clear move... Costly losses on my longs... :S Have no idea where this thing is gonna go now, this time I'm really OUT.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,950
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:36am Mar 28, 2008 8:36am
Anyone thought that US started showing signs of improvement this week? Seems the series of interest rate cuts over the last few months are starting to show its impact at least in home sales?

- New and Existing Home Sales both up from forecast and previous numbers where previously much lower.
- Core Durable Goods and Unemployment Claims were bad but did not drop as significantly as before.

Trichet has smartly managed to increase the value of the euro against inflation without cutting interest rates, but if US gradually starts showing better numbers in CPI, manufacturing and employment... wonder how long the rise will last. Next week would be an interesting week, if the US numbers show signs of the economy downturn slightly "easing off", it might gain some attention.

Although, even with that said, it would take a while for the market sentiment to change, and EUR/USD still looks alright to go above 1.6000, for now.
Trade the reaction, not the news!
  • #5,951
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:52am Mar 28, 2008 8:52am
im thinkin short here. saw some divergence btwn price action and rsi on the daily.
  • #5,952
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:58am Mar 28, 2008 8:58am
2 options

2 minutes for news...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 2 opt.png Size: 25 KB
  • #5,953
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:59am Mar 28, 2008 8:59am
news was early
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,954
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:04am Mar 28, 2008 9:04am
Quoting Jurrasic
news was early
oops true... .. that's why it was moving strongly before....
  • #5,955
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:09am Mar 28, 2008 9:09am
anybody else think we will see a bounce from the 5720ish area?
  • #5,956
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:45am Mar 28, 2008 9:45am
Now the 62ema (1hr) is sitting right on 7550....if it crosses both, we might head for a run down...I hope not 'cause I am long, but this is what usually happens when 62ema gets penetrated.....

Here's the thing, everybody is talking about it reaching 1.60, some say 1.62, so that's what's keeping the longs, yet, at the same time, we are not getting bad enough news from here, the USA, to actually move it to 1.60, so that's were you have the shorts.....just looking at the 1hr chart gives you a perfect image of the indecision....it seems as if every other candle is the opposite color, up, down, up, down.......
"Lunch ? Lunch Is For Wimps !"
  • #5,957
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:02am Mar 28, 2008 10:02am
Definately no clear trend. I use the daily and 4 hr charts to find the trend. then drop down to smaller time frames to look for good entry. It is sometimes tempting to try and catches the bounces, but the promlem is, you never know when it will break. I am happy to sit on the sides and wait for a while. I don't need to try and catch every pip.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd328h.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #5,958
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:05am Mar 28, 2008 10:05am
Quoting Trade4Cash
...I am happy to sit on the sides and wait for a while. I don't need to try and catch every pip.
Well put... I am leaning towards downward momentum, only because we have failed to penetrate 59 level again and it is Friday. Looking for the profit-taking to short EU. Wishful thinking, maybe...
  • #5,959
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:15am Mar 28, 2008 10:15am
Still, selling on approach to 1.5785-1.5790 area will give you 10 pips profit every time. There is no potential for significant break north considering the double top on the daily. I am short today, several times short. Target - 1.5766 every time (.65 has always been magnetically magic number for EUR/USD)
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #5,960
  • Mar 28, 2008 10:22am Mar 28, 2008 10:22am
I would expect this triangle to take us up to the 1.59.. area.

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/7857/eurusdib8.jpg
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