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Powerful Fib Based System - by DAZfx

  • #221
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:22am Mar 28, 2008 2:22am
Quoting priceaction
Morning all ...

I'm looking at USD/JPY as a potential short.
- 61.8 fib breached
- stochs are trying to cross over
- current 1hr candle has crossed 5ema
- awaiting support at daily pivot to be broken

Any thoughts?
Rob
An extra note on this. Some might be familiar with ozfx. He called short on this pair at midnight GMT. Stochs on the daily crossed over and pointing down. This gives me a little more confidence of going short.
  • #222
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:25am Mar 28, 2008 2:25am
Quoting priceaction
Nice discipline on the EG trade Chow.

I did at least hold my GU trade overnight, up 108 ...(20 are thanks to the poor UK houses price news just out)
Your GU analysis playing out nicely, great trade.

I trade an auto strat using GU that enters off the 4hr, i switched the short 'engine' on a couple of days ago from the weekly/daily trend shift. I find the weekly stoch 5,3,3 indicates long/short bias quite well on GU.
  • #223
  • Mar 28, 2008 2:42am Mar 28, 2008 2:42am
Quoting ChowClown
Your GU analysis playing out nicely, great trade.

I trade an auto strat using GU that enters off the 4hr, i switched the short 'engine' on a couple of days ago from the weekly/daily trend shift. I find the weekly stoch 5,3,3 indicates long/short bias quite well on GU.
Yes, GU is moving down well.

EG almost reached it's all time high. Are you still in?

UJ has crossed above 78.6 fib and stochs have uncrossed themselves.
  • #224
  • Edited 4:46am Mar 28, 2008 2:50am | Edited 4:46am
Quoting priceaction
Yes, GU is moving down well.

EG almost reached it's all time high. Are you still in?

UJ has crossed above 78.6 fib and stochs have uncrossed themselves.
Still in EG. Came within a couple of pips of the 3rd target. I've moved stops up now to lock in some profit on the final tranche...high prob of rejection here i suppose.
  • #225
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:03am Mar 28, 2008 3:03am
Quoting priceaction
An extra note on this. Some might be familiar with ozfx. He called short on this pair at midnight GMT. Stochs on the daily crossed over and pointing down. This gives me a little more confidence of going short.
Does the breach of the 100% fib nullify the potential GJ short trade?
  • #226
  • Mar 28, 2008 3:26am Mar 28, 2008 3:26am
due to news we have to consider a couple things. JPY is strong on HIGH CPI (edit) with employment concerns. UK is weak but has GDP and Current account out soon. These trends could reverse. Just looking at a GU 1hr chart it looks like GU needs a retrace long.

AUDUSD is at 76% of yesterday's move

S&P is at 50% retracement after a big end of day move down yesterday. should continue down on volume.
It really is that easy.
  • #227
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:00am Mar 28, 2008 4:00am
Quoting The Fxorce
due to news we have to consider a couple things. JPY is strong on HIGH CPI (edit) with employment concerns. UK is weak but has GDP and Current account out soon. These trends could reverse. Just looking at a GU 1hr chart it looks like GU needs a retrace long.

AUDUSD is at 76% of yesterday's move

S&P is at 50% retracement after a big end of day move down yesterday. should continue down on volume.
Thanks for the GU caution.
Watching AUD/USD
  • #228
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:21am Mar 28, 2008 4:21am
Quoting Dazfx
Hi David,

Its 12:33am here in the UK, but I will try my best to answer your questions.
...........
I hope I have answered your questions to your satisfaction.

-DAZ-
Daz, many thanks for your prompt and comprehensive answers. Any system that yields around a 75% win rate and RR significantly > 1 has got to be very profitable. Congratulations.

David
  • #229
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:43am Mar 28, 2008 4:43am
Quoting ChowClown
Still in EG. Came within a couple of pips of the 3rd target. I've moved stops up now to lock in some profit on the final tranche...high prob of rejection here i suppose.
3rd target @ FE 78.6 hit (7902)

2 further tgts, FE100 @7927 and the 38.2 extension of the AB move @7943.
  • #230
  • Mar 28, 2008 4:55am Mar 28, 2008 4:55am
Quoting ChowClown
3rd target @ FE 78.6 hit (7902)

2 further tgts, FE100 @7927 and the 38.2 extension of the AB move @7943.
Chow ...Well traded! Congrats!
  • #231
  • Mar 28, 2008 5:42am Mar 28, 2008 5:42am
First of all, thank you Daz for sharing this profitable system with all of us.Personally, you've provided an important trading weapon to add to any trader's arsenal.
I've always thought that Fibs had a lot to offer, but you've really cleared up a lot of issues w.r.t. Fibs for me (e.g. where to set anchor points,etc.)!

With regards to GU Daily chart,I'd appreciate your views on the following:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=195
Any corrections would be appreciated as well.
Hope you don't mind me posting this link, it just saves me from re-working the charts,etc.

Thanks again,
Wishing you many pips,
DS
  • #232
  • Edited 6:19am Mar 28, 2008 6:10am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting priceaction
Chow ...Well traded! Congrats!
thanks for the encouragement, Rob.

...i'm monitoring GU, EU, UC, UJ, UCAD, EG, AU, EJ & GJ. Eyes being trained constantly to pick likely swing points, but nothing that promising short term, as far as I can see. Missed the EJ long, as the entry signalled while akip.

Would be interested to note what other pairs/crosses people find swing well.

EDIT: EUR/GBP long FE100 target in @7927. Decided to move stop on rest to just below the last hourly low, to limit the 'give back'. What a great strat. Like Doji Star, a few missing pieces of my own fib trading puzzle are now in place - thanks again Daz.
  • #233
  • Edited 6:54am Mar 28, 2008 6:39am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting Doji Star
First of all, thank you Daz for sharing this profitable system with all of us.Personally, you've provided an important trading weapon to add to any trader's arsenal.
I've always thought that Fibs had a lot to offer, but you've really cleared up a lot of issues w.r.t. Fibs for me (e.g. where to set anchor points,etc.)!

With regards to GU Daily chart,I'd appreciate your views on the following:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=195
Any corrections would be appreciated as well.
Hope you don't mind me posting this link, it just saves me from re-working the charts,etc.

Thanks again,
Wishing you many pips,
DS
Interesting analysis DS, i'm biased short from the daily/weekly chart at the moment and will be watching the GU hrly Daz setup closely now, as it approaches it's fib decision zone, for a potential short....it's got a fair bit to do yet though before signalling!
  • #234
  • Mar 28, 2008 8:52am Mar 28, 2008 8:52am
Quoting ChowClown
3rd target @ FE 78.6 hit (7902)

2 further tgts, FE100 @7927 and the 38.2 extension of the AB move @7943.

Great trade Chow! I was hoping for a 79 test, but I sold out yesterday, only had 1 lot going as I'm a fulltime student with not much trading ammo yet.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #235
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:05am Mar 28, 2008 9:05am
Quoting Pipsforall
Great trade Chow! I was hoping for a 79 test, but I sold out yesterday, only had 1 lot going as I'm a fulltime student with not much trading ammo yet.
Thanks - flat now from the break south of the recent hrly inside candle. Looks like it may reset for another Daz long, perhaps not until early next week now though.

Wish i'd got into trading during my student days
  • #236
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:20am Mar 28, 2008 9:20am
hey guys,
wat dou think of eur/jpy..almost testing .618 for now..
  • #237
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:34am Mar 28, 2008 9:34am
Quoting roger0078200
hey guys,
wat dou think of eur/jpy..almost testing .618 for now..
Hi everyone,

I am looking at the EJ, and it looks excellent for a bounce off the 78.6 (with the daily pivot point and 50MA providing support at that level).

See how it pans out.
  • #238
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:36am Mar 28, 2008 9:36am
Quoting roger0078200
hey guys,
wat dou think of eur/jpy..almost testing .618 for now..
Looks a nice clean chart for a long to set up from, some way to go yet of course, but it's the best contender on my watchlist atm. Several hours to go perhaps before considering an entry.....pace quickening, maybe not so long to wait.
  • #239
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:37am Mar 28, 2008 9:37am
Quoting ChowClown
Thanks - flat now from the break south of the recent hrly inside candle. Looks like it may reset for another Daz long, perhaps not until early next week now though.

Wish i'd got into trading during my student days
Haha, I keep saying I wish I had started trading when I was in my middle school and high school days.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #240
  • Mar 28, 2008 9:41am Mar 28, 2008 9:41am
Quoting roger0078200
hey guys,
wat dou think of eur/jpy..almost testing .618 for now..
I am watching that one as well, but so far the stochastics aren't cooperating.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
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