Aussie Pairs

Hi guys. Noob here.. I was looking at this 4 hour aud/dollar chart.. I wanted to get your guys thoughts on this situation.. We are in downwards channel on the longer term, however, on the smaller TF, we are bullish?? I want to enter a short position for a long-term trade to the downside. What do you guys think about this? is this a risky trade?? should I wait for another 4 hour candle to see if it closes below the trendline?? Your thoughts would be helpful..

Thanks

Not that much though

The last rate rise and the big four banks increaseing rates last month really seem to have done their job. I didn't think we would see a drop that fast in interest rates next year.

You would think we would see the AUD top some time over the coming months with a 50% market price for a rate drop end of year and a downward cycle begining.

Source News.com.au Portal

Have your say! Comments are open on this article - add yours

1. Rates tipped to fall to 6 per cent
2. Economists say by late 2009
3. Falls on back of deteriorating economy

INTEREST rates may drop back to 6 per cent by late next year, as the latest economic data shows a significant slowing in the economy.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said there was a 30 per cent chance the Reserve Bank would begin cutting rates this year as economic growth deteriorated.

As the bank looks to have won another round in its fight against inflation, Mr Oster is forecasting interest rates will fall steeply in 2009 from its 13-year high of 7.25 per cent back to 6 per cent.

"An interest rate cut this year is a possibility, but there may not be enough of a slowdown," he said.
"But we think that by the late 2009 they will be down to about 6 per cent."

This comes as the latest NAB business survey shows spending patterns are slowing and business conditions have fallen to their lowest point since late 2002.

Mr Oster said the economic downturn was now "broad based" and the "deceleration is gaining momentum" after the bank's back-to-back rate rises in February and March.

The business survey showed a double-digit fall in business conditions for retailing, transport, finance and property.
Mr Oster expects unemployment levels will jump from just over 4 per cent to about 5 per cent next year.

This follows Monday's job advertisement survey that registered its fourth consecutive month of declines, as employers pared back hiring.
Citigroup co-head of market and economic analysis Paul Brennan said the upcoming consumer price index on April 23 would show inflation was still very high, but that the bank would look through the data.

"There is still a lot of inflationary pressure in the economy from the strong growth in the second half of 2007, but inflation pressures should begin to moderate in the next few months," Mr Brennan said.

"The RBA is adopting a wait-and-see approach because there has been a lot of tightening and this takes time to work its way through the system."

Mr Brennan forecast that rates would not start to fall until early next year and would drop to about 6.5 per cent by the end of 2009.
Traders on the Sydney Futures Exchange have priced in a greater than 50 per cent possibility of interest rates falling to 7 per cent in November.

Deutsche Bank economist Phil O'Donoghue said it was "a bit early to be talking about rate cuts" as the finance house was still forecasting another rate rise to 7.5 per cent later this year.

He points to the surge in coal prices as being a major threat to inflation, as it could push the terms of trade even higher than February's record $3.3 billion trade deficit.

Earnings of the big mining firms are expected to be boosted by a tripling in the price of coal.

The higher terms of trade, tax cuts in next month's Federal Budget and a rebound in farm prices are expected to offset some of the recent downturn in economic growth and bolster inflationary pressures.

Me thinks it's time to bump this bad boy. 92.51 should be the next downside target.

I agree that we are on the cusp of a significant move down. The impending U.S. earnings don't look awfully promising, and now the effects of the credit tightening by the RBA are really beginning to be felt, this dismal home loan report being first in line.

"Volatility levels on JPY/AUD forward contracts recently jumped to 25%, the highest level since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998."

You're angling for the co pilot seat in that desert buggy!

You betcha! http://nzbmatrix.com/images/smilies/pirate.gif http://nzbmatrix.com/images/smilies/guns.gif

I think we might get 97.00 tonight as everything's looking bullish on my daily.

It'll go up and bang on down!


"Yen Carry Trade Under Siege"


http://www.forexblog.org/

Will be watching AJ and AU this coming week. Move down will likely accelerate, looking at the Dailies at least that's what I see.

DT is that a inverted hammer or a shooting star on the Weekley close of AU?

Not familiar with those patterns, could you explain?

Here check it out http://www.babypips.com/school/reversal_patterns.html looks similar to AU weekely candle

Yep, that's it. I see it going down dramatically this week.

I dont know about that cause the opening and closing price on the Weekley are pretty much the same and on the babypips sites it suggests that when this happens sellers are exhausted and buyers are going to be control

"The inverted hammer occurs when price has been falling suggests the possibility of a reversal. Its long upper shadow shows that buyers tried to bid the price higher. However, sellers saw what the buyers were doing, said “oh hell no” and attempted to push the price back down. Fortunately, the buyers had eaten enough of their Wheaties for breakfast and still managed to close the session near the open."

This wasn't an inverted hammer, it's a shooting star according to Babypips as this candle happened at the end of the uptrend:

The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that looks identical to the inverted hammer but occurs when price has been rising. Its shape indicates that the price opened at its low, rallied, but pulled back to the bottom. This means that buyers attempted to push the price up, but sellers came in and overpowered them. A definite bearish sign since there are no more buyers left because they’ve all been murdered.

Hi. What do you think about AUD/NDZ?

I don't trade that pair, but I assume that if the Aud/Usd tanks then Nzd will strenghten causing that pair to dip as well.

Interesting way of describing it, he he...