Elliott Wave Counting with EG

ok. here is something on the GBPUSD

EG

UPDATE:

Previous day's High was at 1.9886
Price is above daily pivot @ 1.9833 but still below weekly Pivot @ 1.9936.


For C= 1.618

update again:

I am going out for a few hours but will leave a Sell Limit Order @ 1.9935

Have removed Sell Limit Order as I am now back. looking for a higher w5 to end this wC of w4.

EG

Charts EW with Ichimoku

EG

Pullback on the 1min then a short rally on the 5min chart

waiting for price to enter the kumo on the 1min chart or lower.
Price may find support on the lower side of the 5min kumo before a short rally on the 5min chart

Update 1:
Possible support @ 1.9897 which is Murrey Math Strong Support on 15min chart

Flat lower side on 5min kumo is @ 1.9893

Update 2:

I am not seeing any Divergence yet from 1min to 15min charts so still holding a view that there is still room to go up. Besides, Price has not crossed to the lower side of the Kumo yet on the 5min and 15min TF.

UPDATE 3:
I hope everybody who follow this thread understand that I am not here to call trades. My views should be taken as ideas you can look into.

Earlier I mentioned about what I was looking for or expecting on the 1 min and 5min charts. I actually took an earlybird entry LONG and went thru a 15pip drawdown. Only to stay on and hold then see an 18pip potential profit and got out for 14pips in the bag.

This demonstrate somehow the benefits of watching multiple time frames trying to catch the price turns. We won't get all of this full PIPS. But we will be somehow forewarned of potential turns.

So if you want to scalp, watch the 1min-5min-15min charts. Ofcourse, I would insist that you apply the EW Rules and Guidelines. And I would further suggest that you also study the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Strategy.

Now, I have to leave again. But this time to have some fun with wife and friends. We need the exercise too you know. Some Badminton action would be great. Market will always be there. There will be multiple opportunities to profit.

Happy Trading Everyone. I hope even at least 1 trader out there has learned something today.

EG

2230 PHI 1030 NY
I am back and price did go up still from where I exited earlier. Now it is @ 1.9968 from an earlier high of 1.9984. I exited @ 1.9928 earlier for my 14 pip profit prior to leaving.

For those who patiently watched and tracked price, that was a nice profit to keep.

2255 PHI
I can't stay up to trade right now. There is still a potential for price to still go up to artound 2.0020 whose are has 2 median lines on the 4hr charts

Current move up could be attributed to that FLAT upper Kumo side which magnetizes prices toward it on 4hr chart. on this TF price is still under the kumo. However 5min to 1hr charts shows still potential room to go up as price is stil above the Kumo.

For as long as price is still far from the kumo, trend reversal for a particular TF can not be confirmed yet. A price cross of the kumo validated by other factors in the Ichimoku can help reduce false breakouts or crossover.

Price is above the Kumo from 5min to 1 hour charts.

We may have the chance to short this pair tomorrow.

EG

Update
032608
Note the breakout to the upside of the 4hour RESISTANCE trendline

1140 PHI
Period of consolidation on the 15min chart. Likely a corrective wave which could be a w4 on 15min chart

RED ABC could be a 3wave A ended at 1.9734 and this move up from 1.9734 could be a B wave.
Price breakout to the upside of a 4hour Resistance rtrendline could bring price much higher than where it is now. Besides the 1initial 1234 Green does not comply with the rules and guidelines anymore because of the w1 and w4 overlap and the internal structure of the supposed w4 have exceeded the wave extention guideline for abc.

Therefore, the move from 1.9734 going up ( now that it has to be considered as a potential wave B ) , will now have the following possible forms:

since A was a 3 wave structure abc, then B will be a FLAT or a Triangle and not a zigzag.

1216 PHI
watch for 2.0015 - 1.9992 as potential support prior to a new rally scalp.

4hour Resistance Trendline Breakout worked out fine but scared many with that pullback.

As I look at this now, we have an A blue on the Daily.

But B blue may not yet be finished. Although it is possible that C is where it ends. But it may not be an ABC red . Instead, it may be a WXYXxZ.

Why? Check the stochastics..

Look at the price on the Ichimoku

And the next Resistance Trendline is from a Daily Resistance trendline. Although could also be broken. It would be more of the first 2.

But also see how that move from 2.0396 went down to 1.9734. That looked more like 3 waves.

If this is already a move down for the Big C Blue, then it should have been in 5 waves for the internal structure of C1 down to be followed by a 3 wave up C2.

If that daily resistance trendline breaks, then next to look forward to for me is that Z.

Note also that price is above the Daily and the weekly Pivot.

EG
001 0558 PHI Note Divergence on the 5min chart

002 0603 After reviewing post again, I found out I posted 2 daily chart. so here is the actual 4hour chart. My apologies to all.

003 0607 We may now find price going back down towards that FLAT Kumo side near 2.0020. This is within the area of the 50% retracement. Although it may find temporary support on a median line found on the 15min chart @ 2.0040. Price now is at 2.0071

004 0633 PHI 2.0101 seems a top for the 5min chart. am looking / watching for price to find temporary support on the first median line below it at around 2.0050. Next median line it could find support is @ the level of 2.0020 which is near the Daily Pivot. But price may head back up for a wB of a corrective move. watch your stochs and relate the EW waves with it.

005 0810 PHI Ok.... we got that 5min pullback

007 0922 PHI Targets
Daily Chart 2.0800
1hour chart 2.0400
m15 2.0250
m5 1.9900

Let see how we all fare with these targets. watch your wave counts

008 0930 PHI %min chart . note strong Support on Murrey Math @ around 2.0020 while a median line is @ 2.0005 5min chart

the market loves us!!!!

hi EG,

did u predict on EUR/JPY...
can u predict for me..
where it's goes?

you have chosen not to receive emails or PM

charts

EG

FIBS

hi every one

hi everyone
As previously i think cad will go up next month, at least 1000 pips. As for me now we at the last stage of forming of triangle. Its wave E.

Let us work on our imaginations.

Weekly:
If A is in 5 waves, then B should be a Zigzag. However, we see a FLAT wave from the 1.9337 low going up to 2.0396 where an FE 161.8 ends up for an abc structure. this is a FLAT corrective wave.

Now since I am looking for a Zigzag wave B, then this can not be the end of wave B on the weekly chart.

Daily.
Moving to the Daily chart.... we can see what looks like a 3 wave structure going down from 2.0396 towards 1.9734. Checking the internal structure of this using the FIB Extention tool, we see that c=a(1.237) which we can refer to as a zigzag b of a lower degree than the B I am looking for on the weekly chart.

This can therefore serve as the wave b after that FLAT wave a.

4hour
1.9734 going up to 2.0191 looks like a 3 wave structure then a retrace for a 4th wave which has not yet overlapped with wave 1.

so I think a wave 5 up is in the offing or if it overlapps with wave 1 by going lower than 1.9881 then this maybe be wave 32 of a wave c3 up.

count invalidated if it goes lower than 1.9734.

otherwise, target for wave B end on the weekly chart is at FE100 @ 2.0790

EG

001 update 0044 PHI 032908
4 hour chart seems to show a wave 5 structure has finished from 1.9734 going up to 2.0191. the move down that follows shows what still looks likely as a 3wave structure. If you check your MACD, bars have stayed above the Zero line even though price has retraced by going down.

I am looking at further recovery of this pair which would likely result in further move up. So yes.... a bare chart and MACD plus your ELliott wave count will sometimes suffice to draw some forecast.

002 0255 PHI
Let us see if 1.9881 is the end of c2 and the beginning of the c3 UP with c5 ensing at 2.0750 - 2.0790

003 0343 PHI

1.9938 could be the TOP of c31. watching for the c32 retrace..... and UP UP and away we GO.
Unless, price goes lower than 1.9892

already managed to get 5 pips right before it turned down from 1.9938

price may find support on a 5min median line @ 1.9902 for its c32 and then rally from there.32 pips away from 1.9932 now.

005 0400 PHI
Entered LONG at 1.9925.... took my chance from an EW-FIB signal on another system. although I will be running a negative swap on my broker thru the weekend as I have a 49 pip forward trade cost for 1month. this is cheaper than paying the daily swap on a regular trade. if I let this trade runtill 2.0750, my swap charges would not be that bad. to me it would look like this would TOP wave B on the weekly chart around 041208 +/-3 days

Have a nice weekend everyone

007 0418 PHI

got out @ 1.0043 for 12 pips

waiting for pullback to 1.9935

008 0430 PHI
price went down to 1.9933, but I got greedy.... because my other system was telling me there is still room to go down... so I am still not in. not really in a hurry as I had my 17 pips right into the weekend for me here in asia.

009 0435 PHI
a retrace towards 1.9923 - 1.9906 maybe possible. I think I will close this weekend for the profit. and start again next week. Great way to end the week.

I am out.

010 0849 PHI
when i said I'd go out, i entered again as I saw an opportunity. managed to get 4 pips which should have been 6 pips. anyway, i got the 4 just as the market closed at 0500 here. 0507 actual PHI time. I think there was still room to go up to 1.9971 though to end wave c1. Yes I know I thought c31 already ended. although the form did not look right. but based on another system for determining waves, it now seems that 1.9971 should be the actual end.

so a possible GAP up might be seen on Sunday's opening or the Asian Monday opening , to be followed by a c32 retrace down to 1.9910-1.9885, before rallying for c33

Divergence on the 15min chart. so expect a 5 wave advance from 1.9881 to 1.9971 then followed by a 3 wave retrace to 1.9910 - 1.9885 before the c33 rally.

how about this view.. you guys as mirror in my analysis. Thanks in advance

http://www.image-upload.net/files/7962/gj080329a.gif

Hi Aviro25
I just want to say that a lot of guys who use waves do forget about the main rulle for impulses - its the rule of extended wave. It means that in impuls one wave should be extended 1, 3 or 5. So in some cases we cannot label the chart as 1-2-3-4-5.
But i dont say that your targets or critical point are wrong. I agree with this. You exactly shows where the stop line and where you are going to take profit . And for that respect.
Wish you profits.

dun wory.. as i said.. i open my analysis for discussion. this is the place i can learn more about elliot wave.. serega.. might be my question is kinda noobs.. but.. how do we exactly know which one is extended.. and how to identify the extended wave... maybe you like to share with us..

thank you for being a mirror for me. and thanks also for the compliment.

You can take any material about waves and there you ll find about this rule.
If we take 3 wave extended (as usual) it should be not less than 161.8% from the 1 wave by fibo.
There are some other simple rules for labeling.
By the way, looking at your count i thought you had known about it

http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/1590/49775424zw8.gif


How is it ?

i thought i aware of the PHI in EW and fibonacci ratio..
thats why im asking you in case im missing something.. so ..could you please recount my picture so that i can see where is my mistakeS?

i think thats the best solution i can understand where am i wrong.

thank you in advance

Gbp/jpy daily. Its my view. It can also be mistaken