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Powerful Fib Based System - by DAZfx

  • #101
  • Mar 24, 2008 5:05am Mar 24, 2008 5:05am
Once again, fibo rules....
I don't say
  • #102
  • Mar 24, 2008 10:46am Mar 24, 2008 10:46am
Dazfx,
I am trying to understand your system.
Firstly, I draw fib lines from A to B. Then move this exact set of fib lines to point C to find the target levels. Am I correct?

Secondly, What do you use to determine the the trend on longer timeframe?

Thirdly, I manually backtested this system on eurusd 1 hour timeframe, i only got a few trades in the last 6 months. Am I doing something wrong?
The problem was that most of them retrace less than the 61.8 and 78.6 levels and reverse.
Thank you.
  • #103
  • Mar 24, 2008 12:04pm Mar 24, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting eagle_eye
Dazfx,
I am trying to understand your system.
Firstly, I draw fib lines from A to B. Then move this exact set of fib lines to point C to find the target levels. Am I correct?

Secondly, What do you use to determine the the trend on longer timeframe?

Thirdly, I manually backtested this system on eurusd 1 hour timeframe, i only got a few trades in the last 6 months. Am I doing something wrong?
The problem was that most of them retrace less than the 61.8 and 78.6 levels and reverse.
Thank you.
Hi Eagle Eye,

Thanks for the response. Firstly, you use Fibonacci Expansion (Point A, B, C) to get the targets. Secondly, you identify the trend on the longer term time frame by simply looking at the waves (ie: Higher highs and higher lows in uptrend). Also, you could trade on the hourly timeframe when price is in a corrective phase on the daily.

Finally, the reason you only found a few trades is because your swing points are very far away from each other. If you look at my examples, you will see that impulsive waves are usually 4-10 candles long. If they are longer than this, usually, you will have that setup on a higher timeframe.

Hope this helps.

Thanks
  • #104
  • Mar 24, 2008 12:09pm Mar 24, 2008 12:09pm
Quoting eagle_eye
Dazfx,
I am trying to understand your system.
Firstly, I draw fib lines from A to B. Then move this exact set of fib lines to point C to find the target levels. Am I correct?

Secondly, What do you use to determine the the trend on longer timeframe?

Thirdly, I manually backtested this system on eurusd 1 hour timeframe, i only got a few trades in the last 6 months. Am I doing something wrong?
The problem was that most of them retrace less than the 61.8 and 78.6 levels and reverse.
Thank you.
I would let the Master speak, but this is what I found -
1) Use lower TFs and you may spot more trades...
2) Check other pairs which are more volatile (but a beast at the same time) and you could see larger (618, 786) replacements...

Goodluck!
  • #105
  • Mar 24, 2008 12:44pm Mar 24, 2008 12:44pm
Thanks, I'll try that. Please continue to post charts of trades you take.


Quoting Dazfx
Hi Eagle Eye,

Thanks for the response. Firstly, you use Fibonacci Expansion (Point A, B, C) to get the targets. Secondly, you identify the trend on the longer term time frame by simply looking at the waves (ie: Higher highs and higher lows in uptrend). Also, you could trade on the hourly timeframe when price is in a corrective phase on the daily.

Finally, the reason you only found a few trades is because your swing points are very far away from each other. If you look at my examples, you will see that impulsive waves are usually 4-10 candles long. If they are longer than this, usually, you will have that setup on a higher timeframe.

Hope this helps.

Thanks
  • #106
  • Edited 4:13pm Mar 24, 2008 1:52pm | Edited 4:13pm
I am not trading today but there were a few setups on the hourly. But most of them were against the trend. Here is a textbook trade that I would have taken had I decided to trade today.

You can see how the next candle after entry was a news candle that went in our favour and you might say that it conflicts with the rule of not trading news. But there were three things that a subjective trader would have taken into consideration.

1) Risk/ Reward ratio was excellent (only 25 pip stop loss)
2) Bullish Hidden Divergence on the Stochs
3) We were expecting the dollar rebound with the US Housing Market stablising and hence, a good news release.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: abcd13.gif Size: 18 KB


Note: Just realised that the fib extension point of B should be a bit higher on the chart. So the price projections would be a few pips higher.

Thanks
  • #107
  • Mar 24, 2008 10:32pm Mar 24, 2008 10:32pm
When I draw the fib extention I do not get a value of 71.8 anywhere. What am I missing?
  • #108
  • Mar 25, 2008 12:41am Mar 25, 2008 12:41am
Quoting steve50
When I draw the fib extention I do not get a value of 71.8 anywhere. What am I missing?

right click on the fibo & go to the properties.. in there u can add the value & description..

hope this help...
  • #109
  • Mar 25, 2008 6:57am Mar 25, 2008 6:57am
...anyone tempted with the 4hr USD/JPY short, or do you think it has further to go north (towards 78.6) before rejoining higher timeframe downtrend?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UY - 25th Mar 08 (1).GIF Size: 64 KB
  • #110
  • Mar 25, 2008 9:21am Mar 25, 2008 9:21am
Quoting ChowClown
...anyone tempted with the 4hr USD/JPY short, or do you think it has further to go north (towards 78.6) before rejoining higher timeframe downtrend?
Chow, already took the trade on the hourly timeframe.

This was the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: abcd14.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #111
  • Mar 25, 2008 9:36am Mar 25, 2008 9:36am
Nice one...the earlier long (USD/JPY) setup off the hrly was against the daily trend, so i'm guessing you would have given that one a miss?
  • #112
  • Mar 25, 2008 4:04pm Mar 25, 2008 4:04pm
i read all yuor post very nice system am little bit confused about point A. for point A FROM WHAT TIME I HAVE TO START LOOK FO EHIGH PICK


in one day only one trade in one pair? IN US SESSION I HAVE TO LOOK DIFFERENT and asian session i have to lookk different time it is possible in 15 minute time frame?please help me any body can explain me datail for pick pointA.

THANKU
  • #113
  • Mar 25, 2008 5:06pm Mar 25, 2008 5:06pm
great strategy. really appreciate the info.
do you trade in any rooms?
a bunch of us are in kinn's new room. hakuna matata.
i prefer to trade confirmed trendline breaks so your system compliments mine well.
i've been trading for 3 years full time.
thanks again
It really is that easy.
  • #114
  • Mar 26, 2008 6:15am Mar 26, 2008 6:15am
Here is a trade I took on USDJPY!!

I left a lot of pips on the table, but since the stop loss was really tight (20pips), I went in with more lots.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: abcd15.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #115
  • Mar 26, 2008 6:38am Mar 26, 2008 6:38am
Nice trade. We missed this one. The news out today was wild. Sometimes it's better to ignore news and trade the signals. This volatility is amazing.
It really is that easy.
  • #116
  • Mar 26, 2008 6:59am Mar 26, 2008 6:59am
Quoting Dazfx
Here is a trade I took on USDJPY!!

I left a lot of pips on the table, but since the stop loss was really tight (20pips), I went in with more lots.

Attachment
nice move daz...do u think its going to retract back to 99.76 or 99.96 b4 heading down....
  • #117
  • Mar 26, 2008 8:34am Mar 26, 2008 8:34am
Quoting The Fxorce
Nice trade. We missed this one. The news out today was wild. Sometimes it's better to ignore news and trade the signals. This volatility is amazing.
With the longer term trend down and the entry coming in well before the EURO news, I went in. It already hit my First target when the news came out. If it was a High/Medium impact US or Japan news, I wouldn't have entered.

And no, I don't belong to any trading group. Just have a trading partner. How do you find trading with a group?
  • #118
  • Mar 26, 2008 9:15am Mar 26, 2008 9:15am
it's difficult to contact you because your PM and email are disabled on FF.
there are various groups to trade with. I trade with a few pros.
It really is that easy.
  • #119
  • Mar 26, 2008 9:18am Mar 26, 2008 9:18am
Quoting jesse123
i read all yuor post very nice system am little bit confused about point A. for point A FROM WHAT TIME I HAVE TO START LOOK FO EHIGH PICK


in one day only one trade in one pair? IN US SESSION I HAVE TO LOOK DIFFERENT and asian session i have to lookk different time it is possible in 15 minute time frame?please help me any body can explain me datail for pick pointA.

THANKU
Point A is a swing point (retracement point of the previous impulse wave). Please take a look at the first chart in my initial post. In a downtrend, Point A is a swing high (a higher high than the previous candle and the candle after).

You can have more than one setup per day on any one pair, But when I reach my target for the day, I don't trade.

And yes to trading on the 15min TF. Just need to know that the success rate declines as you go into lower TFs, but you do get more setups. Just keep your AB waves small (4-10 candles)

I hope this helps.
  • #120
  • Mar 26, 2008 9:28am Mar 26, 2008 9:28am
Quoting The Fxorce
it's difficult to contact you because your PM and email are disabled on FF.
there are various groups to trade with. I trade with a few pros.
Ok I enabled my Email. Don't know why I can;'t enable PM.
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