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  • #5,761
  • Mar 25, 2008 7:04pm Mar 25, 2008 7:04pm
probably going to retest weekly pivot and new daily pivot.....
  • #5,762
  • Mar 25, 2008 7:39pm Mar 25, 2008 7:39pm
Is there some news going on, it seems to be moving again ...
  • #5,763
  • Mar 25, 2008 7:57pm Mar 25, 2008 7:57pm
Quoting fierceman
Bounce off a very important fib level and then a trendline breach. This was most likely a purely technical move in relatively low Asian liquidity.

Ok, when you say it bounced off a very Important Fib Level, which one would that be? So That I can understand what happened.

I also have to wonder if it had something to do with the Yuan? This type of market action has happened before, and then it was because of the Chinese Gov, make a off handed comment that the market reacted to. Could this have been another one of those reactions?


kmt
  • #5,764
  • Mar 25, 2008 8:00pm Mar 25, 2008 8:00pm
yeah, it's probably the Chinese government farted again ...
  • #5,765
  • Mar 25, 2008 9:03pm Mar 25, 2008 9:03pm
Quoting teaguekm
Ok, when you say it bounced off a very Important Fib Level, which one would that be? So That I can understand what happened.

I also have to wonder if it had something to do with the Yuan? This type of market action has happened before, and then it was because of the Chinese Gov, make a off handed comment that the market reacted to. Could this have been another one of those reactions?


kmt

38.2
  • #5,766
  • Mar 25, 2008 9:05pm Mar 25, 2008 9:05pm
Quoting Schminner
Is there some news going on, it seems to be moving again ...
7:50 est jpy news.

But market don't need news or a reason to move. Thats just what it does. Move that is.
  • #5,767
  • Edited 9:37pm Mar 25, 2008 9:23pm | Edited 9:37pm
Quoting Küster
Just waiting it to be below 1.5600 to short.Everything shows bearish action.
http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/3875/eurusdrj4.gif
I am looking at your top trend line and wondering how you came up with it. You didn't draw it from the peaks established by the price.

Here are correctly drawn trend lines. As you can see, the price has not only crossed the trend line but also crossed above the weekly pivot. Very bullish and a perfect long set up.
You cann't adjust your trend lines to accommodate your bearish views.

edit: fyi- the bounce off the bottom trend line was 38.2 retrace.

http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/8...lytrendlm4.gif
  • #5,768
  • Mar 25, 2008 9:33pm Mar 25, 2008 9:33pm
Quoting Jurrasic
Hmm.. as I recall, and btw on that chart you can see the line in between 1.5 and 1.45 actually if I'm not mistaken, 1.475 was more significant.. Also, if you look at the last drop - it was about 600 pips which is also half the distance to 1.475 - if it makes a double top and breaks the neck...

Anyway I mostly don't trade such large time frames so just an observation.

You have to look at daily to find tops.

If you look on daily, you'll see it looks like were half way to the 2nd top. It could extend past the last or fall short, either way is common.

Even if you don't trade daily charts you need to look at them. There the most significant charts out of all of the time frames.
  • #5,769
  • Mar 26, 2008 1:50am Mar 26, 2008 1:50am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
If you look on daily, you'll see it looks like were half way to the 2nd top. It could extend past the last or fall short, either way is common.
Yep, that's what I meant with the double top.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,770
  • Mar 26, 2008 2:00am Mar 26, 2008 2:00am
Is anyone else on the sell here?? Possible test of 5475??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,771
  • Mar 26, 2008 2:58am Mar 26, 2008 2:58am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
I am looking at your top trend line and wondering how you came up with it. You didn't draw it from the peaks established by the price.

Here are correctly drawn trend lines. As you can see, the price has not only crossed the trend line but also crossed above the weekly pivot. Very bullish and a perfect long set up.
You cann't adjust your trend lines to accommodate your bearish views.

edit: fyi- the bounce off the bottom trend line was 38.2 retrace.

I think I see where he came up with the trendline on that 15Min chart.
Drawing a channel from the 3/14 to 3/24 lows and slapping it on top of
the 15900 high. Even still, i think it's off by maybe as much as one big figure.

When 157 breaks, that channel would prove incorrect anyway.
There is a 618 at 15688 from the move down though, could be
some resistance in that area - again, 100 pips from here.
  • #5,772
  • Mar 26, 2008 6:24am Mar 26, 2008 6:24am
When do you get out ?
My station's at 1.5845.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,773
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:03am Mar 26, 2008 7:03am
Quoting sleep1Iopen
Is anyone else on the sell here?? Possible test of 5475??

Its true, you can tell some one exactly what the market will do, and never fails, some one will ignore it and get caught the wrong way.


I am not here trying to figure out how to trade like most of you. I already know how, and am passing it on to those who want to learn.

I hope you didn't get raked over the coals to bad this morning.
  • #5,774
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:05am Mar 26, 2008 7:05am
Quoting toshi
I think I see where he came up with the trendline on that 15Min chart.
Drawing a channel from the 3/14 to 3/24 lows and slapping it on top of
the 15900 high. Even still, i think it's off by maybe as much as one big figure.

When 157 breaks, that channel would prove incorrect anyway.
There is a 618 at 15688 from the move down though, could be
some resistance in that area - again, 100 pips from here.

And we see now how unreliable that was, and the properly drawn trend lines are what gave the direction.
  • #5,775
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:10am Mar 26, 2008 7:10am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Here is a possible scenario. This is pulled based on whats formed so far. It is projected to happen over the course of 4 days.
Unless the price reaches further down and the pitchfork will change a little, but still needs a second top.


http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/8...tchforkbj5.gif


Missed that target price by only 10 pips and still following the fork
  • #5,776
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:20am Mar 26, 2008 7:20am
this is what i see...i may be wrong,...OFCOURSE!!
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its just money
  • #5,777
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:25am Mar 26, 2008 7:25am
Here is target revised based on angle of assent. I got out for the news since were nearing a possible reversal zone.


http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/3...lytrendhs4.gif
  • #5,778
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:37am Mar 26, 2008 7:37am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Here is target revised based on angle of assent. I got out for the news since were nearing a possible reversal zone.


http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/3...lytrendhs4.gif
Hey David,
I also think 1.5810ish is a possible reversal area. I am waiting for the market to confirm it and hopefully i can get a nice sell signal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,779
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:52am Mar 26, 2008 7:52am
Quoting emda
probably going to retest weekly pivot and new daily pivot.....
I was right...in the asian session... almost...

David.. I'm your new fan... I'm starting to like the forks
  • #5,780
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:56am Mar 26, 2008 7:56am
however... I love Linear regression channels... Look the breakout of that previous channel... and now how it is going up in this new channel... I won't be short until break of this channel...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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