Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting jku

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leighsww, finally, someone helped a dummy out. i appreciate hw u always show mercy time and time again to the slow ones.

u see, i work long hrs and i knw i shldnt be complaining so i'll skip my personal problems.

thanks for ur reply, i was waiting all along. u see, since this thread i have been rescuing trades entering in the "opposite direction" (eg sell) when i gauge price moving strong enough against my initial entry position (eg buy) to reaverage me out.

i have 133 trades with 11 loses, so it has worked. bt looking at ur charts, it seems that ur rescue is still in ur initial direction of entry, u just wait for the price to resume initial direction.

my questn was, if that is the case, hw are u always sure price wld resume ur initial direction ie buy or i guess even in a trend change there are always entry options as price doesnt move in straight lines.
(aggh, hope i explained well enough)

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Quoting luSan

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Bigblue, welcome to fit's domains.

Like you I have a scientific and business background...many titles, patents, and other skills full of tricks and math knowledge-I even have patented NN innovations...

Welcome to the 5M dance.

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Quoting tangoandrew

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a total newbie here!

have been reading this thread last month but was put off by my inability to understand much. decided to come back to read last week and now able to understand a bit more....thanks to leighswww & many others who have posted answers to questions raised.

i'm on a 1 year no-pay-leave bec of family circumstance and decided to use whatever free time to explore if forex is a potential source of income.

back here in singapore, numerous forex courses are available ranging from $500 to $3k...and the feedback from students have been mostly negative.

that's why i am very thankful to fti for his generous spirit in sharing in this thread. though i have yet to start any trading, he has already helped me saved much $ and time. his spirit has definitely rubbed off on some forumers here who have shared many helpful tips & pointers...and i just want to say a big thank you to all those who have contributed.

hope to be able to share on my trading journey in fututre...

tangoandrew

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Quoting bigblue

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Thanks for the reply luSan. Today I have been like Dr Strangelove. If you remeber the film with Peter Sellers - he would occassionaly try to strangle himslef with his left hand - and his right hand would have to come to the rescue. Went long USDJPY today at 10060 - went against me so I hedged -.... Net result 60 pips down.
I'm going to use demo (I use a very small account to trade normally, but snowballing raises the stakes). I know what I have habitually done over the last few years is misidrected and ineffective - but like a heroin adict it's going to be hard giving it up. If I had rescued my scout at 10000 I could have got out BE.

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Quoting auxesis

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Leighsww, Ian, everyone thanks,

Ian, I left out the time frames and data on the charts on purpose, as to me it does not matter what time frame you trade, the criteria is still the same. The charts look the same just more waves as we start breaking down the subsets.

I will try to post a more detailed look at this from the higher time frames down which will pull together some of my earlier posts but it will take some time.

I agree that using my setup Fig #3 if the bottom fails it spells change of direction, I have looked into a stop and reverse but it favors (in my mind at least ) as a break out trade in the opposite direction, not in my original intent.

There are some stop sweep issues to take into consideration as well as dancing in the direction of the higher time frames, but i will try to pull it all together.

I am comfortable with the approach, but I feel the MM needs tweaking for optimization, and I dont want to lay a minefield for my self in doing so.

@ Leighsww, agreed, there are more pips to be had when we trade the small waves, but it requires more screen time to manage them. One of my mentors always said that a good trader will take a 100 pip move and get 200 or more out of it.



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Quoting luSan

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That makes a lot of sense to me. I reflected on ways to translate my way of dancing to your ways, and I came to this conclusion:just translate the dance to a higher time frame just as-is. For example, "13 5M bars in 1h is similar to 13 15M bars in 4H." It is almost the same dance, but we have more pips to capture for the longer war. This is something to reflect about. Nothing change but the mindset, personality, and patience.
Regards

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Quoting luSan

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My 2 cents...The answer will depend on the higher time frame trend and you own understanding and gut...

For example...

if you trade the 5M...and 15M and 1H are trending in favor of the scout... then rescue and book profit...

if 15M and 1H are against scout...rescue, kill scout, and reverse....or rescue and wait to see how the trend will go...

If you feel brave rescue and book the money and wait and see...

By the way...nice combination of the 123 and AOW approach...but is it no fair not to tell us about your time frame...it appears the 5M in a compressed form...Sure time frame are fractals...there is a book about it...and all frames are the same, etc...but still I have not seen 3 touches trend in 5M...but that is another topic...you are correct about the analysis...I moved away from it...and I have to reread it to see it clearly. Why? The trend lines and the bulkowski's measure that I rejected were back! Scary! They brough memories of long forgotten days...

Happy pipping.

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Quoting leighsww

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Not if you dance like fti and luSan, lol :



Yes, I certainly believe a good trader can do that, but what fti is teaching us here goes beyond just being a good trader, he's teaching us the skills of a "Pro" trader, one who exceeds the boundaries of just good.

Putting our money into CDs (Certificate of Deposit) can be considered good, but trading the Forex, we can all agree (well, those who are profitable, that is) is even better. The latter is how I feel about fti and his trainings/method.

I always thought that a "Pro" trader was one who traded the higher timeframes (overnight/long-term), who made the 100 - 200 pip moves, who put stop losses into place, but I now know better and realize that's a misnomer.

I don't believe most people ever truly get to meet a "Pro" forex tier 1 bank trader, thus never get the behind-the-scenes look/info of how it's actually done.

We have been very fortunate to have such a person in our midst who is truly what is known as a "Pro" trader (aka "the Big Guys"). Not only was he a Pro trader, but he moved up the ranks to some very high positions in his industry. You can't be mediocre and get to those positions, I can tell ya.

For me, the only thing that matters is RESULTS (as this too, I have mentioned before in this thread). I cannot say I have actually seen any other "Pro" traders' results, but I have seen fti's and I doubt very many traders can match his skill.

But, this has already been mentioned several times in this thread, so I should not have to repeat it. Also, fti's head will get too big for his own good, haha.

fti has said that it is very hard to train veteran traders, because they are too stuck in their set ways and bad habits to change their mindset and way of thinking. I think maybe that is why luSan is succeeding as well as he is, because he was totally open to being trained and didn't let any bad habits (if he had any) sabotage him.

New traders will probably make better traders than veterans with fti's method, because they are trainable.

Unfortunately, it's the "Scorpion" story for many who cannot surrender themselves to grasping the powerful treasures that have been shared with us. fti's results should speak for themselves.

Everyone who reads this thread needs to ask themselves ... am I happy with my current trading results? Am I as profitable as I'd like to be?

If the answer to those two questions is "NO" then make that change for yourself. Switch your gears and let go of all your bad habits and old trading style, because obviously it's not working for you. Stop sabotaging yourself!!

However, if you are happy with your results, then keep doing what you're doing.

If you've made it through reading this entire thread, then at this point, those of us who want to be better traders rather than just good traders, need to stop resisting and start accepting what is being taught here by fti so that we can consider ourselves "Pro" Traders or at least wannabes, anywho! : (it's for our own good, really it is!)

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Quoting yinkulo

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what i found most dreadful and unappealing is gambling, please in what way can one trade without being referred to as a gambler. in all honesty, i agree with all the fact tabled on the above subject.

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Quoting Zoran

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Good to see this thread alive and well after a short break.

I've been in threads that have reached 2000 or 3000 pages and people were asked to read the whole thing so I don't think it's too much to ask to read this one. It may come to a point where there is too much clutter but probably not for a while. I am intending to re-read it slowly and I'm prepared to pick out the important lessons and put it into a document if fti thinks this is worthwhile and is prepared to proof read it. What do you think fti?

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Quoting fti

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Just drop you pants,
I'll get Leighsww to give you a good wiping

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Quoting fti

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Hey, I've sent comments emails to you, hit the sack, already?

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Quoting leighsww

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ACK!!! Hey, watch the spelling!! I don't WIPE anybody!!! The word is WHIP http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif, WHIP!!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif



What do you mean by "already"?!! It was dang late for me!!! Sheesh!!

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Quoting fti

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Yeah I just realised that, I forgot, I thought you would be trading as usual until 3 NY time as during the simulations.
Sorry to disturb,
But what are you doing replying, The bed bugs bite?

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Quoting fti

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Lusan,
huh!, playing with the dark side.
May the force not kick you in the ...

regards

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Quoting luSan

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Never...No dark side...thoughts and memories...I stick to my MO and mindset...I read that Encyclopedia of Pattern twice...I diggested every single charts...and I came to the conclusion... that I could not do it...In my initial days with forex I was playing with triangles, flags, and penants....I failed...

No...No change...As far as I am concerned when I trade it is PA, me, and myself...I do not draw a single line nor I have time for it...How to do it when I am in the middle of the storm!...and Why to change what nicely is working?

I love when the dance is pure noise, just rock and roll...then is supply and demand...similar to early this morning... 67 pis in 25 min....to easy...but dangerous because if too much self confidence then the dragon comes and feed on me....

Regards,

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Quoting fti

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Hi Zoran,
Nice to see you back.

Hey just save the whole thingy and read la
How would you know whats important and what not.
If you did you probably won't need to reread.
Did you have a nice easter?

regards

Actually saving to read is a bad idea.
There are files and stuff posted, best just read from thread.
Then print what you think is important.
But reading should be from thread.I think.
For me I won't save all this junk, I live it.

Actually I feel a little sorry, for the new comers.
Its for them like in historical testing. Ther's no time to pause, there's no brain process, there's no patience and awu training. Its very different.
Ask those who went thru the process here. Its very different.
So if this was published in book and sold , it does swat for the readers.
Only mind fart. Sorry for bad, but its the truth.

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