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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

what i found most dreadful and unappealing is gambling, please in what way can one trade without being referred to as a gambler. in all honesty, i agree with all the fact tabled on the above subject.
Quoting jku
leighsww, finally, someone helped a dummy out. i appreciate hw u always show mercy time and time again to the slow ones.

u see, i work long hrs and i knw i shldnt be complaining so i'll skip my personal problems.

thanks for ur reply, i was waiting all along. u see, since this thread i have been rescuing trades entering in the "opposite direction" (eg sell) when i gauge price moving strong enough against my initial entry position (eg buy) to reaverage me out.

i have 133 trades with 11 loses, so it has worked. bt looking at ur charts, it seems that ur rescue is still in ur initial direction of entry, u just wait for the price to resume initial direction.

my questn was, if that is the case, hw are u always sure price wld resume ur initial direction ie buy or i guess even in a trend change there are always entry options as price doesnt move in straight lines.
(aggh, hope i explained well enough)
Hi jku,
Much agreed, Leighsww has a golden heart, and zooms about like the mother theresa of traders.

In effects your results are ok, just that I believe that the 11 losses may have taken away more thanhalf of your profits, right. That needs to be looked into.
Of course untimately it is more meaningful if you can find and fix it yourself. Nevertheless, there's many here that may be of assistance, if you call out.

Alternatively, you may like to search thru the thread for the needle, Its actuallt there.

regards
Quoting luSan
Bigblue, welcome to fit's domains.

Like you I have a scientific and business background...many titles, patents, and other skills full of tricks and math knowledge-I even have patented NN innovations...

Welcome to the 5M dance.
Hi Lusan,
huh, your cover blown.
no wonder you caught on so quickly.

dance well

regards
Quoting tangoandrew
a total newbie here!

have been reading this thread last month but was put off by my inability to understand much. decided to come back to read last week and now able to understand a bit more....thanks to leighswww & many others who have posted answers to questions raised.

i'm on a 1 year no-pay-leave bec of family circumstance and decided to use whatever free time to explore if forex is a potential source of income.

back here in singapore, numerous forex courses are available ranging from $500 to $3k...and the feedback from students have been mostly negative.

that's why i am very thankful to fti for his generous spirit in sharing in this thread. though i have yet to start any trading, he has already helped me saved much $ and time. his spirit has definitely rubbed off on some forumers here who have shared many helpful tips & pointers...and i just want to say a big thank you to all those who have contributed.

hope to be able to share on my trading journey in fututre...

tangoandrew
Welcome to the difficult side.
Take you time read, think read again, think again.....
It will come to you ,if you practise and practise......
no amount of reading without practise will help.
You have been told.

learn well.

regards
Quoting bigblue
Thanks for the reply luSan. Today I have been like Dr Strangelove. If you remeber the film with Peter Sellers - he would occassionaly try to strangle himslef with his left hand - and his right hand would have to come to the rescue. Went long USDJPY today at 10060 - went against me so I hedged -.... Net result 60 pips down.
I'm going to use demo (I use a very small account to trade normally, but snowballing raises the stakes). I know what I have habitually done over the last few years is misidrected and ineffective - but like a heroin adict it's going to be hard giving it up. If I had rescued my scout at 10000 I could have got out BE.
Hi bigblue,

Welcome, you seem intelligent, this would just be walk in the park for you.
But for your other part.
Nothing that cannot be corrected.
Just drop you pants,
I'll get Leighsww to give you a good wiping
and then she 'll give you the jab and medication,
You won't feel a thing. LOL

Really, don't you think you should give that shadow of yours a good heart to heart. It may have had difficulty in understanding the value of money.

regards
Quoting auxesis
Leighsww, Ian, everyone thanks,

Ian, I left out the time frames and data on the charts on purpose, as to me it does not matter what time frame you trade, the criteria is still the same. The charts look the same just more waves as we start breaking down the subsets.

I will try to post a more detailed look at this from the higher time frames down which will pull together some of my earlier posts but it will take some time.

I agree that using my setup Fig #3 if the bottom fails it spells change of direction, I have looked into a stop and reverse but it favors (in my mind at least ) as a break out trade in the opposite direction, not in my original intent.

There are some stop sweep issues to take into consideration as well as dancing in the direction of the higher time frames, but i will try to pull it all together.

I am comfortable with the approach, but I feel the MM needs tweaking for optimization, and I dont want to lay a minefield for my self in doing so.

@ Leighsww, agreed, there are more pips to be had when we trade the small waves, but it requires more screen time to manage them. One of my mentors always said that a good trader will take a 100 pip move and get 200 or more out of it.



a
Hi auxesis,
I have studied your chart and analysis.
Seems you have forgotten to use your short sword.
Ability in using the long sword may look impressive, but without short sword ability, won't mean much to book, except the gamble factor becomes very high.

Moreover your rigidity in 50 % retracements and wave mirroring seems dangerous mindset, that may be you achellies heel.


regards
Quoting luSan
That makes a lot of sense to me. I reflected on ways to translate my way of dancing to your ways, and I came to this conclusion:just translate the dance to a higher time frame just as-is. For example, "13 5M bars in 1h is similar to 13 15M bars in 4H." It is almost the same dance, but we have more pips to capture for the longer war. This is something to reflect about. Nothing change but the mindset, personality, and patience.
Regards
Hey Lusan,

I hope both you and Leighsww, don't start confusing each other.

Keep the rhythem.

regards
Originally Posted by Jiaro.

Hi fti,

My wife is much smarter than me. When I told her the story of the coconut tree, she immediately understood that the salesman was intended to be ME. That idea never crossed my mind. I am so bad a salesman that I had to quit a 16 years job for not being able to sell decently. In fact, I am so sell-adverse that I know it is a serious limitation. My wife is not a seller, too. But at least she is smart, like most sellers! I think it is clear now why I take the wrong side of the market so frequently: I use to take the messages in the opposite sense. That for sure has been a big disadvantage in my trading career. I think I am the dumbest trader (trader?!?) in this forum. I should take trading advices from my wife!...

P.S.: hmmm... on second thought, my wife is not all that smart. She married me...

Hey jairo,
Not so bad, la
There are other perspectives as well.

Haven't you heard.
Behind every successful man is a smart woman
peeking thru his arm pit, watching out for him.

And I won't have it any other way.LOL
:-)
regards
Quoting luSan
My 2 cents...The answer will depend on the higher time frame trend and you own understanding and gut...

For example...

if you trade the 5M...and 15M and 1H are trending in favor of the scout... then rescue and book profit...

if 15M and 1H are against scout...rescue, kill scout, and reverse....or rescue and wait to see how the trend will go...

If you feel brave rescue and book the money and wait and see...

By the way...nice combination of the 123 and AOW approach...but is it no fair not to tell us about your time frame...it appears the 5M in a compressed form...Sure time frame are fractals...there is a book about it...and all frames are the same, etc...but still I have not seen 3 touches trend in 5M...but that is another topic...you are correct about the analysis...I moved away from it...and I have to reread it to see it clearly. Why? The trend lines and the bulkowski's measure that I rejected were back! Scary! They brough memories of long forgotten days...

Happy pipping.
Lusan,
huh!, playing with the dark side.
May the force not kick you in the ...

regards
Quoting leighsww
Not if you dance like fti and luSan, lol :



Yes, I certainly believe a good trader can do that, but what fti is teaching us here goes beyond just being a good trader, he's teaching us the skills of a "Pro" trader, one who exceeds the boundaries of just good.

Putting our money into CDs (Certificate of Deposit) can be considered good, but trading the Forex, we can all agree (well, those who are profitable, that is) is even better. The latter is how I feel about fti and his trainings/method.

I always thought that a "Pro" trader was one who traded the higher timeframes (overnight/long-term), who made the 100 - 200 pip moves, who put stop losses into place, but I now know better and realize that's a misnomer.

I don't believe most people ever truly get to meet a "Pro" forex tier 1 bank trader, thus never get the behind-the-scenes look/info of how it's actually done.

We have been very fortunate to have such a person in our midst who is truly what is known as a "Pro" trader (aka "the Big Guys"). Not only was he a Pro trader, but he moved up the ranks to some very high positions in his industry. You can't be mediocre and get to those positions, I can tell ya.

For me, the only thing that matters is RESULTS (as this too, I have mentioned before in this thread). I cannot say I have actually seen any other "Pro" traders' results, but I have seen fti's and I doubt very many traders can match his skill.

But, this has already been mentioned several times in this thread, so I should not have to repeat it. Also, fti's head will get too big for his own good, haha.

fti has said that it is very hard to train veteran traders, because they are too stuck in their set ways and bad habits to change their mindset and way of thinking. I think maybe that is why luSan is succeeding as well as he is, because he was totally open to being trained and didn't let any bad habits (if he had any) sabotage him.

New traders will probably make better traders than veterans with fti's method, because they are trainable.

Unfortunately, it's the "Scorpion" story for many who cannot surrender themselves to grasping the powerful treasures that have been shared with us. fti's results should speak for themselves.

Everyone who reads this thread needs to ask themselves ... am I happy with my current trading results? Am I as profitable as I'd like to be?

If the answer to those two questions is "NO" then make that change for yourself. Switch your gears and let go of all your bad habits and old trading style, because obviously it's not working for you. Stop sabotaging yourself!!

However, if you are happy with your results, then keep doing what you're doing.

If you've made it through reading this entire thread, then at this point, those of us who want to be better traders rather than just good traders, need to stop resisting and start accepting what is being taught here by fti so that we can consider ourselves "Pro" Traders or at least wannabes, anywho! : (it's for our own good, really it is!)
Hi Leighsww,
Thanks.

Like Voltare said (I believe), its hard to break the chains that people ( whats the word) reviers.
So To each their own.

Hey, I've sent comments emails to you, hit the sack, already?

regards
Good to see this thread alive and well after a short break.

I've been in threads that have reached 2000 or 3000 pages and people were asked to read the whole thing so I don't think it's too much to ask to read this one. It may come to a point where there is too much clutter but probably not for a while. I am intending to re-read it slowly and I'm prepared to pick out the important lessons and put it into a document if fti thinks this is worthwhile and is prepared to proof read it. What do you think fti?
Quoting yinkulo
what i found most dreadful and unappealing is gambling, please in what way can one trade without being referred to as a gambler. in all honesty, i agree with all the fact tabled on the above subject.
Hi yinkulo,

In life most activities, including crossing the road is a gamble.
But if one trades with brains and manage the MO, MM and capital well, then its basically business.

Of course if one chose to be reckless and find excuses otherwise.
So unless one is trading OPM, then the issue is with self.

I am sure I will not allow the cat, to look after my baby,and the stars as well.

regards
Quoting Zoran
Good to see this thread alive and well after a short break.

I've been in threads that have reached 2000 or 3000 pages and people were asked to read the whole thing so I don't think it's too much to ask to read this one. It may come to a point where there is too much clutter but probably not for a while. I am intending to re-read it slowly and I'm prepared to pick out the important lessons and put it into a document if fti thinks this is worthwhile and is prepared to proof read it. What do you think fti?
Hi Zoran,
Nice to see you back.

Hey just save the whole thingy and read la
How would you know whats important and what not.
If you did you probably won't need to reread.
Did you have a nice easter?

regards

Actually saving to read is a bad idea.
There are files and stuff posted, best just read from thread.
Then print what you think is important.
But reading should be from thread.I think.
For me I won't save all this junk, I live it.

Actually I feel a little sorry, for the new comers.
Its for them like in historical testing. Ther's no time to pause, there's no brain process, there's no patience and awu training. Its very different.
Ask those who went thru the process here. Its very different.
So if this was published in book and sold , it does swat for the readers.
Only mind fart. Sorry for bad, but its the truth.
Quoting fti
Just drop you pants,
I'll get Leighsww to give you a good wiping
ACK!!! Hey, watch the spelling!! I don't WIPE anybody!!! The word is WHIP http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif, WHIP!!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif

Quoting fti
Hey, I've sent comments emails to you, hit the sack, already?
What do you mean by "already"?!! It was dang late for me!!! Sheesh!!
Quoting leighsww
ACK!!! Hey, watch the spelling!! I don't WIPE anybody!!! The word is WHIP http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif, WHIP!!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif



What do you mean by "already"?!! It was dang late for me!!! Sheesh!!
Hey Hi Leighsww,

So sorry la,
Haha , my sides hurts from laughing.
I'll check my enrollment for spelling classes, but really its dificult that so many kids are staring at me.

Yeah I just realised that, I forgot, I thought you would be trading as usual until 3 NY time as during the simulations.
Sorry to disturb,
But what are you doing replying, The bed bugs bite?

regards
Quoting fti
Yeah I just realised that, I forgot, I thought you would be trading as usual until 3 NY time as during the simulations.
Sorry to disturb,
But what are you doing replying, The bed bugs bite?
Huh?!! It's now morning for me and I just got up! Hey, besides taking spelling classes, you better take some timezone ones too, fti!! :

I am just now reading and replying to your email. Some of what you wrote confuses me, lol, but what else is new!! :

Anyway, I'll be sending it to you shortly (DANG, I can't use my whip emote inside my emails!)
Quoting fti
Lusan,
huh!, playing with the dark side.
May the force not kick you in the ...

regards

Never...No dark side...thoughts and memories...I stick to my MO and mindset...I read that Encyclopedia of Pattern twice...I diggested every single charts...and I came to the conclusion... that I could not do it...In my initial days with forex I was playing with triangles, flags, and penants....I failed...

No...No change...As far as I am concerned when I trade it is PA, me, and myself...I do not draw a single line nor I have time for it...How to do it when I am in the middle of the storm!...and Why to change what nicely is working?

I love when the dance is pure noise, just rock and roll...then is supply and demand...similar to early this morning... 67 pis in 25 min....to easy...but dangerous because if too much self confidence then the dragon comes and feed on me....

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
Since my "dancing" post, I have had some PMs and replies on this thread that I would like to answer here.

I would like to clear something up. My dancing was to feel the market and its pulse - that's what I was missing. I was not analysing the market to make predictions but just observing the present action on the 5 minute chart. We are watching a living beast and the idea was to be in sync with it.

As mentioned, this came naturally to me as I have had a 5 min chart (or charts) in front of me practically all day and every day for the past two years. I have been observing this action (and played with it) for about 3000 hours.

As for technical analysis, there is some there but I mainly rely on current market action. Perhaps price has returned to a support and resistance level and the dance changes. I do not predict here but observe. Will it break or will it bounce? The action will tell me what I should do. Perhaps it is starting to round and weaken? Again, depending on what I observe (and feel), I will take appropriate action.

Technical analysis has its uses and I will use what I need and learn what I should but there is no book that can teach you to feel the market and to dance with it. You will need to experience that for yourselves by playing with it. Read the thread, become familiar with fti's teachings (hint: it's not rocket science), get naked and jump in. Then start asking questions and I will assist where I can (as will others). Leigh also has her whip to get you onto the fast track.

Now that reminds me of something luSan said recently - Imagine you are a soldier and your general tell u...drop your TA weapons and stop-loses shield...go naked to battle...scary... If you take this, some people here are carrying two machine guns, 20 hand grenades, a rocket launcher, 4 communication devices, a parachute, night vision goggles and ammunition thinking it's going to help them. It will just bog you down. The best troops are highly motivated, lightly armed, highly mobile and know the terrian well.

Why else do you think the Teleban are doing so well against the world's greatest military might? Why couldn't the US defeat the Vietcong? (These are just examples, not for political debate).
Quoting luSan
Never...No dark side...thoughts and memories...I stick to my MO and mindset...I read that Encyclopedia of Pattern twice...I diggested every single charts...and I came to the conclusion... that I could not do it...In my initial days with forex I was playing with triangles, flags, and penants....I failed...

No...No change...As far as I am concerned when I trade it is PA, me, and myself...I do not draw a single line nor I have time for it...How to do it when I am in the middle of the storm!...and Why to change what nicely is working?

I love when the dance is pure noise, just rock and roll...then is supply and demand...similar to early this morning... 67 pis in 25 min....to easy...but dangerous because if too much self confidence then the dragon comes and feed on me....

Regards,
Hi Lusan,
Yeah ok.ok, these disco junkies.
Good for you,
By the way have you enlisted for spelling school as well.
67 pis, in 25 minutes, goosh, you better get some diapers.
the walk to the loo, sure would disrupt the trading!.LOL just jesting.


regards

Gosh, what a day,
I get Zoran sounding like me.
As I await an email from Leighsww,
Then I receive an email that reads,
"Some People Shouldn't Reproduce" instead, Got a shock.
LOL
http://www.thirdage.com/news/article...080325-01.html

well. its all in the timing. Must be the effects of the laughing at Leighsww, spilling over.

regards
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran,
Nice to see you back.

Hey just save the whole thingy and read la
How would you know whats important and what not.
If you did you probably won't need to reread.
Did you have a nice easter?

regards

Actually saving to read is a bad idea.
There are files and stuff posted, best just read from thread.
Then print what you think is important.
But reading should be from thread.I think.
For me I won't save all this junk, I live it.

Actually I feel a little sorry, for the new comers.
Its for them like in historical testing. Ther's no time to pause, there's no brain process, there's no patience and awu training. Its very different.
Ask those who went thru the process here. Its very different.
So if this was published in book and sold , it does swat for the readers.
Only mind fart. Sorry for bad, but its the truth.
Hi fti, the easter break was nice - I went to Ireland (Dublin) with my family. We are back at home for a week and then off to Portugal (Lisbon) for another week so time to rest and enjoy life a little more.

I'm glad I've jumped in now as it has re-energised my trading motivation. I look at someone like luSan and I can see someone with limited time but lots of energy and motivation. He makes no excuses and just does what is needed. Though I have been busy with work, I was using that to hold off and it seems that stopped my progress of your teachings.

But I still believe I need to balance family, work and trading. There was a point where I was spending far too much time on the trading front and my wife become a "forex widow". She was not impressed so I had to re-balance everything and I am taking the forex front a little slower. However, seeing that work is becoming less busy and after a good rest (next holiday), I'll be going full speed ahead with trading once again.

I will be re-reading this thread but also keeping up-to-date and practicing. I'm sure there will be some areas that need clarifying so I was going to use that opportunity to expand on it within a document. It was mainly for my benefit but I thought it would be useful to others.

Your point is valid. It is a bit pointless re-writing this thread even without the clutter. What I intend to do instead is to ask for clarification here so the teaching continues. I expect this mainly to be on the finer points.

Your gift really is priceless.
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