EURUSD

Yes... and according to the weekly pivot and R and S levels... it can be a very volatile week... until price doesn't break the weekly pivot.. I also prefer short positions for the week.

Here is a possible scenario. This is pulled based on whats formed so far. It is projected to happen over the course of 4 days.
Unless the price reaches further down and the pitchfork will change a little, but still needs a second top.


http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/8...tchforkbj5.gif

Interesting David... Thanks
I also think another top is needed at least... with such strong uptrend... is very difficult to change the trend without a double top.

There are lots of people still think the $ will continue down the rest of 08 so any dip like this will be met with bulls. But because of improving $, new home sales, low interest rates, any rallys near top will be met with bears.
It could take some time for the 2 to fight it out and we could range 1.5400 to 1.5900 for who knows how long.

reached 38.2 retracement.. and seems it wants to re-enter in this channel I had...

Excerpt taken from: http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/080324/120...8311.html?.v=1
Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst of Forex Capital Markets LLC, DailyFX.com

What to Watch This Week

Canadian Retail Sales and US Consumer Confidence – March 25
On Tuesday, the release of Canadian retail sales and US consumer confidence could serve as the perfect mix to weigh on the USD/CAD pair in the short-term. First, the Canadian retail data – scheduled to be released at 08:30 EDT – is anticipated to rebound 1.4 percent in January, but given the sharp rise in wholesales sales, tight labor market conditions, and strong Ivey PMI reports over the past two months, retail sales could actually show that Canadian consumers are more resilient than ever. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index – scheduled to be released at 10:00 EDT – is likely to reflect a very different sort of sentiment. The index reading for the month of February at 75 already represents the lowest level in nearly five years, as the combination of high gasoline prices, deteriorating employment conditions, restrictive credit conditions, and a collapsing equity market prove to be a lethal mix for sentiment in the US.

German IFO Survey – March 26
Sentiment amongst Germany’s investors is likely to turn more pessimistic in March, according to the IFO survey. The figure is scheduled to be released at 05:00 EDT, and this release tends to be a significant market-mover for the EUR/USD pair on a very short-term basis. Given the instability in the financial markets over the survey period along with signs that the European Central Bank will not even consider cutting rates, the IFO reading is likely to fall in line with – if not more than – expectations.

US Durable Goods Orders – March 26
Can Boeing help the US durable goods orders figure to rebound? Unlikely, but airline orders may help to prop the headline reading up somewhat. For the month of February, Boeing reported 125 airplane orders, up from a meager 65 in January. While the headline will have the most impact on forex trading, the markets should keep an eye on non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, as this number serves as a leading indicator for business investment. The reading dropped 1.4 percent in January, and continued declines will not bode will for US GDP in the first quarter, especially as consumer spending wanes.

US GDP Revisions – March 27
US GDP is expected to be confirmed at a tepid 0.6 percent pace in the fourth quarter. However, if this number deviates from forecasts by any means, the impact on the US dollar will be fast and furious. Given the extent of dour sentiment on the US economy, a surprisingly strong figure could propel a rally in the greenback. On the other hand, a disappointing number – or worse, a negative figure – will only exacerbate US recession fears and would weigh on the US dollar significantly.

The Stock Market Saga Continues…
JP Morgan Chase has agreed to up the price it will pay for Bear Stearns to $10 a share from an ultra-low $2 a share. The news has helped US stock markets to surge, but the impact could be limited. As we witnessed last week, the DJIA was on a rollercoaster last week as similar news only provided short-term gains. The DJIA is currently trading near 12,550 and may continue to move higher to target resistance at the 12,800 level. Forex traders should be aware of this price action as well, since major movements in the stock markets tend to impact carry trades like USD/JPY and GBP/JPY.

Emda,

I noticed your learning to scalp.

Try using eur/jpy, aud/jpy and aud/jpy on 5 min chart. And trade the break out of triangles.
Keep large time frame trend lines and just don't trade if a larger trend line is blocking the path. A triangle break out will almost always go the distance to the widest part of the triangle. And those pairs will be 10-30 pips on the small side. Where a pair like euro$ might only be a 5-10 pip move on a triangle break on 5 min chart.
I have been having nice success over the last week doing exactly that.
When all three pairs jump at the same time, enter all three and take 10-20 on each. Usually 2 will go one way and one the other.

thanks David... I'll watch those AUD pairs in the lower timeframes... I usually scalp eurusd and eurjpy because the relation between volatility and spread. I'm scared about entering in breakouts... because I've been fooled in some of them. But this idea of entering 3 of them at the same time and get 2 good ones is interesting

The break outs that fool ya are the ones with higher time frame trend lines blocking the path. Look into andrews pitch fork too. It plots very acurate trend line paths, and often explain a sudden reversal or stopping point. Use them on 4hr and daily.

Here is a perfect example of a pitch fork.

I put the big pitch fork on my charts in febuary. The price was riding the bottom line and I questioned the validity of the fork. Its on many charts I posted from than to now. I use smaller 4hr pitch forks to follow the waves in the over all trend. Now the price broke the bottom line but has established the exact same as in the very beginning as the yellow line shows. So that wasn't a valid break yet. But the fork is obviously valid.

Every wave has a pitch fork.

http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/1...tchforkai1.gif

Above...

See how the euro$ enters into uncharted territory, as it comes to the projected median line it finds resistance and honors the fork.

That was new price range and the fork gave us trend lines to follow. Once the fork is established it will be honored until its end and a new wave starts. You can tell this happens when price stops honoring the lines. Then its time for new lines.

just wanna say thx for all good post here..

Why the 100+ pip surge ??? :surprised

===
yes,price tes low 5342 yesterday, and now bounced..maybe trend resume yet..
thanks..for u info...

Does anyone know what came out that caused the 140+ pip climb?

I have not found anything that would account for it.

Anyone?

it's the consortium of banks playing their little "behind the scenes" games!

All I saw was a triangle!

sshhh....
there is a country called china....
1 of the main driver (or the main one) of dollar weakness + bush overspending policies. = its just continuing the weakening path....

maybe 2.0 and beyond is not so far.

Bounce off a very important fib level and then a trendline breach. This was most likely a purely technical move in relatively low Asian liquidity.

Don't know about 2.. But this thing just keeps going up, and every trend trader is happy I'd be really surprised if it went below the strong resistance at 1.53 in the first place, and now I'd say - just get on the train.

P.S. Opened a demo on marketiva and they give you 5$ real money to play with, so I said well I'm not gonna make anything of it unless I stretch the margin and went long before the news yesterday and lost a buck on margin calls, fool Now earned back 1.7$ on that rise and new longs in place. Short on USD/JPY as well

now im gona let it all out,..i was listening to euro bears evrywhere,...from monthly pinbars,....weekly pivots,...1,51 a must reach, reloading at 1.500, etc, etc,...but the thing bounced up instead,...,...

i heard even 1.49,...a bearish week,..etc etc,..