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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #2,701
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:11am Jan 19, 2007 2:11am
1.9739 mark, just below it on the 5 Minute is the 250 EMA, I must have a candle close below both in the clear for a Short, still watching for a possible pop upward again here.
  • #2,702
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:12am Jan 19, 2007 2:12am
Any ideas on how todays news will affect the market?

EDIT: Monarch, good to see you back! It hasn't been the same without ya'
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #2,703
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:16am Jan 19, 2007 2:16am
Quoting goodthings
For me statistics don't replace price action only give an idea of probability. I will take them to another thread.

I never post here but I had to reply to this one. There is nothing wrong with you posting those stats here. Every piece of knowledge someone posts is something I am soaking in from the sidelines. You are just as valuable to this thread as Leugimp, Cesarnc, and Monarch.

And I think I'm just as valuable to this thread by not posting anything because I am still learning and would rather learn from the best.

Oh, and one more thing, Money Master is a pimp as well and should hang out more often.

Peace, D Wave
  • #2,704
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:18am Jan 19, 2007 2:18am
Quoting cesarnc
monarch, what are you looking for as indication, thanks.
Nice movement up during the last 5 minutes of Frankfurt, and the first 5 minutes of the London open. It only went to 1.9762, a mark that has resisted here the past few hours.

Below the 1.9739 is a EMA 250 that has bounced the price upwards many times this week, I would be hesitant taking a Short until these two are completely cleared.

I have been using the London open for a research to see how long and how far from the open price it goes in a 24 hour time frame. I prefer staying with the direction it takes from the London open, always referring to the Frankfurt Low as a guideline for a short.

Long would be considered if we bumped up past the 1.9762 High just set, but there was not much strength in the open candle, which makes me cautious to enter a Long from this point.

With the week almost up, and a lot of push upwards, I really am expecting some drop off today, maybe 50 pips would be nice profits.
  • #2,705
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:23am Jan 19, 2007 2:23am
It may look like it is going to break this line on bottom at 1.9739, but be real careful, because what is really happening is this:

Sharp spike at open takes the Stop out for the Short, and then it drops real nice, catching the Stop for the Longs. Then the next thing you have is panic, everyone asking which way is it going.

I am real careful now, I will not enter a Short or Long without a strong indication, and right now, it is in a tight 23 pip channel. No hurry here, I can wait it out.

I will also start projecting a+b+c=d type strategy to catch a distance I expect.
  • #2,706
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:27am Jan 19, 2007 2:27am
Morning traders,
Appears that the market is waiting for UK retail numbers to start. I'm looking for it to meet or poss exceed .5% expectations. Saw a report about increases in UK consumer debt along with residual increases from Holiday shopping. No guarantees of course.

Good trades!
  • #2,707
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:30am Jan 19, 2007 2:30am
Quoting Pickensrulz
Morning traders,
Appears that the market is waiting for UK retail numbers to start. I'm looking for it to meet or poss exceed .5% expectations. Saw a report about increases in UK consumer debt along with residual increases from Holiday shopping. No guarantees of course.

Good trades!
Hi Pickens...

I was expecting to see 8:00GMT to define direction, but maybe the we're at news waiting, yes...

Retail at or above 0.5% is GBP Bull? I don't think it is a big mover, but any 20 pips here will give us the Friday way... Thanks
  • #2,708
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:31am Jan 19, 2007 2:31am
Interesting place to park the price, this was the London Open Price yesterday, News is coming soon, it should help decide the direction for the London session.
  • #2,709
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:34am Jan 19, 2007 2:34am
Quoting monarch
It may look like it is going to break this line on bottom at 1.9739, but be real careful, because what is really happening is this:

Sharp spike at open takes the Stop out for the Short, and then it drops real nice, catching the Stop for the Longs. Then the next thing you have is panic, everyone asking which way is it going.

I am real careful now, I will not enter a Short or Long without a strong indication, and right now, it is in a tight 23 pip channel. No hurry here, I can wait it out.

I will also start projecting a+b+c=d type strategy to catch a distance I expect.
Hi!

Sorry. Frankfurt opens at 08:CET which is 07:00GMT and London opens at 09:00CET which is 08:00GMT.

Frankfurt opened at 1,9752 (Alpari). Made a high at 1,9757 a low at 1,9739.

London opened at 1,9754 and has made a high at 1,9762 and a low at 1,9739.

Am I right?

Marc
  • #2,710
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:37am Jan 19, 2007 2:37am
hi Monarch
good morning all
it's my first to me with you in this exellent thread ....
I read a lot in your thread yesterdat and I found it so good for me ...
So ... if I could say my opinion
I think I'll Go short if it break 1.9722 down
and I'll go long if it break 1.9777 and be carfull in this case for 1.9844
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #2,711
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:39am Jan 19, 2007 2:39am
monarch,

I'd appreciate to learn how you read yesterday's ± 2 hours around the news.

For fib sakes, it is working fine the high 9777/low 9635. But if we take the news out (in the 4hr), it looks like a simple retracement at the 50 fib (9691) from low 9604/high 9777.

Furthermore, this drop to 9635 area messed with 1hr-and-less indicators, leading to a valley that may has never existed....

I´m still feeling its effects at 1hr chart indicators here...

Thanks..
Out fo shower. BRB
  • #2,712
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:44am Jan 19, 2007 2:44am
Divergence on 4 hr is coming in at a nice level, however there are a lot of big picture implications riding on todays result which will probably add much more to my pocket than anything I can accomplish on my dreaded fridays. Nevertheless, there is a whole lot of divergence going on which can create a couple of opportunitys. My main play will be to wait for confirmation and go with it, although at very low leverage. Being that it is so obvious with various indicators, it will be important to watch out for obvious stop levels and perhaps use them to your advantage to getting a better price.

Also and more importantly, this divergence is coming in right around news time and so a play on it carries some risk. To jump in ahead of news time runs the risk of price just taking off against you, which with divergence seems to happen often, at least often enough worth recognizing. To jump in after news helps to confirm may have caused you to give away too many pips, making a risk/reward unfavorable from that point on. The most favorable way to play this then in my opinion going into the news would be to scrap the divergence play all together. Alot of times divergence turns into a positive reversal. I mean RSI is already lower with a higher price, if it turns down and rsi breaks pivot low while price does not, this is very bullish. Basically what we are doing is fading the news. Goto the news trading forum and see how many pips this retail sales can carry before a reversal. As of right now, price would need to come in the minimum to 9683 in order for a positive reversal to form, and since that is on a closing basis I will look for support around and below that area as my long entry order.Also it will be important to find a good massively clustered area where a stop can be placed behind.

If my stop is taken out I can then look for retracements to enter short if this divergence is playing out on a larger scale.

If price at news goes the other way, well then it makes perfect sense, yet I dont want to enter in that direction without having some kind of dip to do it in so I will just wait and keep looking for opportunitys on the charts.

My personal opinion is that the entry if possible in the 9680 or lower area would be a good start if current price level is upkept until the news, even if down to 9720 prior. The news if comes out that way shouldn't bring price too much lower than my entry level and if so will most likely spike and retrace, giving ample opportunity to take profit or adjust plans. I feel if a loss is going to be taken on that type of a position, it would come in at 10AM when US news comes out - that should give me more than enough time to figure something out.

Just an opinion
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,713
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:54am Jan 19, 2007 2:54am
Quoting Leugimp
Divergence on 4 hr ...
Amen
  • #2,714
  • Jan 19, 2007 2:56am Jan 19, 2007 2:56am
Quoting marc
Hi!

Sorry. Frankfurt opens at 08:CET which is 07:00GMT and London opens at 09:00CET which is 08:00GMT.

Frankfurt opened at 1,9752 (Alpari). Made a high at 1,9757 a low at 1,9739.

London opened at 1,9754 and has made a high at 1,9762 and a low at 1,9739.

Am I right?

Marc
This time thing gets everyone confused.

I have Frankfurt open at 2 am Eastern Time US, and the London open at 3 am Eastern time.

That is what I have always used, hopefully this is correct, if not, it still works great for me.
  • #2,715
  • Jan 19, 2007 3:01am Jan 19, 2007 3:01am
Quoting Leugimp
Divergence on 4 hr is coming in at a nice level, however there are a lot of big picture implications riding on todays result which will probably add much more to my pocket than anything I can accomplish on my dreaded fridays. Nevertheless, there is a whole lot of divergence going on which can create a couple of opportunitys. My main play will be to wait for confirmation and go with it, although at very low leverage. Being that it is so obvious with various indicators, it will be important to watch out for obvious stop levels and perhaps use them to your advantage to getting a better price.

Also and more importantly, this divergence is coming in right around news time and so a play on it carries some risk. To jump in ahead of news time runs the risk of price just taking off against you, which with divergence seems to happen often, at least often enough worth recognizing. To jump in after news helps to confirm may have caused you to give away too many pips, making a risk/reward unfavorable from that point on. The most favorable way to play this then in my opinion going into the news would be to scrap the divergence play all together. Alot of times divergence turns into a positive reversal. I mean RSI is already lower with a higher price, if it turns down and rsi breaks pivot low while price does not, this is very bullish. Basically what we are doing is fading the news. Goto the news trading forum and see how many pips this retail sales can carry before a reversal. As of right now, price would need to come in the minimum to 9683 in order for a positive reversal to form, and since that is on a closing basis I will look for support around and below that area as my long entry order.Also it will be important to find a good massively clustered area where a stop can be placed behind.

If my stop is taken out I can then look for retracements to enter short if this divergence is playing out on a larger scale.

If price at news goes the other way, well then it makes perfect sense, yet I dont want to enter in that direction without having some kind of dip to do it in so I will just wait and keep looking for opportunitys on the charts.

My personal opinion is that the entry if possible in the 9680 or lower area would be a good start if current price level is upkept until the news, even if down to 9720 prior. The news if comes out that way shouldn't bring price too much lower than my entry level and if so will most likely spike and retrace, giving ample opportunity to take profit or adjust plans. I feel if a loss is going to be taken on that type of a position, it would come in at 10AM when US news comes out - that should give me more than enough time to figure something out.

Just an opinion
Hey, appreciate the heads up, this helps keep us all from getting too jumpy, patience is the key here.

Everyone on the thread needs to be reading this info for a proper analysis of what could happen here soon.

Thanks
  • #2,716
  • Jan 19, 2007 3:03am Jan 19, 2007 3:03am
In a 1/2 hour correct?
  • #2,717
  • Jan 19, 2007 3:04am Jan 19, 2007 3:04am
I just switched my entry view, although it will make it difficult for a fill today, perhaps with GBP and US news can help. My long entry will be in white circle area - around 9610(ahead of fib confluence) with stop in rectangle area, in front of another fib confluence area. This will allow the divergence to play out and still lead in development of pos reversal on higher timeframe and will be in line with weekly move.

As for this divergence on this timeframe, I cant find away to go with it and feel safe. Actually if we have a strong move down followed by retrace, perhaps a negative reversal will form with enough room yet to go to my long entry. Thats how i'll play it.
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Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,718
  • Jan 19, 2007 3:09am Jan 19, 2007 3:09am
Quoting monarch
In a 1/2 hour correct?
Yes...
  • #2,719
  • Jan 19, 2007 3:09am Jan 19, 2007 3:09am
Quoting monarch
In a 1/2 hour correct?
yes

By the way good to see you M.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,720
  • Jan 19, 2007 3:12am Jan 19, 2007 3:12am
Just 17 days ago we were right here at this number when the High closed at 1.9749. And 13 days before that, we hit a high at 1.9747.

Now we have jumped above to 1.9777 for our high, but this 1.9747-49 area may come into play here real soon.
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