1.9739 mark, just below it on the 5 Minute is the 250 EMA, I must have a candle close below both in the clear for a Short, still watching for a possible pop upward again here.
DislikedFor me statistics don't replace price action only give an idea of probability. I will take them to another thread.Ignored
Dislikedmonarch, what are you looking for as indication, thanks.Ignored
Appears that the market is waiting for UK retail numbers to start. I'm looking for it to meet or poss exceed .5% expectations. Saw a report about increases in UK consumer debt along with residual increases from Holiday shopping. No guarantees of course.
DislikedIt may look like it is going to break this line on bottom at 1.9739, but be real careful, because what is really happening is this:
Sharp spike at open takes the Stop out for the Short, and then it drops real nice, catching the Stop for the Longs. Then the next thing you have is panic, everyone asking which way is it going.
I am real careful now, I will not enter a Short or Long without a strong indication, and right now, it is in a tight 23 pip channel. No hurry here, I can wait it out.
I will also start projecting a+b+c=d type strategy to catch a distance I expect.Ignored
Sorry. Frankfurt opens at 08:CET which is 07:00GMT and London opens at 09:00CET which is 08:00GMT.
Frankfurt opened at 1,9752 (Alpari). Made a high at 1,9757 a low at 1,9739.
London opened at 1,9754 and has made a high at 1,9762 and a low at 1,9739.
Am I right?
DislikedDivergence on 4 hr is coming in at a nice level, however there are a lot of big picture implications riding on todays result which will probably add much more to my pocket than anything I can accomplish on my dreaded fridays. Nevertheless, there is a whole lot of divergence going on which can create a couple of opportunitys. My main play will be to wait for confirmation and go with it, although at very low leverage. Being that it is so obvious with various indicators, it will be important to watch out for obvious stop levels and perhaps use them to your advantage to getting a better price.
Also and more importantly, this divergence is coming in right around news time and so a play on it carries some risk. To jump in ahead of news time runs the risk of price just taking off against you, which with divergence seems to happen often, at least often enough worth recognizing. To jump in after news helps to confirm may have caused you to give away too many pips, making a risk/reward unfavorable from that point on. The most favorable way to play this then in my opinion going into the news would be to scrap the divergence play all together. Alot of times divergence turns into a positive reversal. I mean RSI is already lower with a higher price, if it turns down and rsi breaks pivot low while price does not, this is very bullish. Basically what we are doing is fading the news. Goto the news trading forum and see how many pips this retail sales can carry before a reversal. As of right now, price would need to come in the minimum to 9683 in order for a positive reversal to form, and since that is on a closing basis I will look for support around and below that area as my long entry order.Also it will be important to find a good massively clustered area where a stop can be placed behind.
If my stop is taken out I can then look for retracements to enter short if this divergence is playing out on a larger scale.
If price at news goes the other way, well then it makes perfect sense, yet I dont want to enter in that direction without having some kind of dip to do it in so I will just wait and keep looking for opportunitys on the charts.
My personal opinion is that the entry if possible in the 9680 or lower area would be a good start if current price level is upkept until the news, even if down to 9720 prior. The news if comes out that way shouldn't bring price too much lower than my entry level and if so will most likely spike and retrace, giving ample opportunity to take profit or adjust plans. I feel if a loss is going to be taken on that type of a position, it would come in at 10AM when US news comes out - that should give me more than enough time to figure something out.
Just an opinionIgnored