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Technical Analysis and a few charts to ponder

  • #141
  • Jan 16, 2007 7:23pm Jan 16, 2007 7:23pm
anyone using the GANN?
  • #142
  • Jan 17, 2007 11:30am Jan 17, 2007 11:30am
im sorry to interrupt..what do you think about this chart..is it gonna be a pull back after reach that line?

btw...i learned a lot from your thread..thnx alot!!
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  • #143
  • Jan 18, 2007 2:27pm Jan 18, 2007 2:27pm
Quoting ejin
im sorry to interrupt..what do you think about this chart..is it gonna be a pull back after reach that line?

btw...i learned a lot from your thread..thnx alot!!

That is a very good looking chart with some excellent corrolations. Once you can do that consistently, it is all about learning to capitalize on them.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #144
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:11pm Jan 18, 2007 3:11pm
Be it absolutely correct or not, I often consider what is going on with this pair as a pretty good idea of what is going on with the dollar.

Here is a chart depicting the 100 pip range we have been in for the last week. You will notice the channel has a slight upside bias. This is pretty much a range traders dream as long as you recognize it early enough. As these channels age, they are far less likely to hold.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #145
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:15pm Jan 18, 2007 3:15pm
Hey FX what do u thuink about the swissy?, take a look at this puppy

last 3 times it touched either the 61 or 38 fib and stayed in channel

time for a long?

u see any bad signs?
only thing i could see is that it hasnt hit the top lately so that may be a sign of a breakout to bottom , no?
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Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #146
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:18pm Jan 18, 2007 3:18pm
LOL we posted same chart 5 minutes apart bud lmao Great Minds, ahh Great minds
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #147
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:19pm Jan 18, 2007 3:19pm
The euro broke out of our bear channel prompting a buy signal that quickly went into profit. However just as quickly as it went positive it came back. Now the eur/usd finds itself in a range just like the usd/chf.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #148
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:24pm Jan 18, 2007 3:24pm
Here a is a chart of the gbp/usd.
It has been building this bull wedge for awhile. Along with it bullish traders with dreams of $2 plus rates.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #149
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:41pm Jan 18, 2007 3:41pm
Quoting Ghostpipper
Hey FX what do u thuink about the swissy?, take a look at this puppy

last 3 times it touched either the 61 or 38 fib and stayed in channel

time for a long?

u see any bad signs?
only thing i could see is that it hasnt hit the top lately so that may be a sign of a breakout to bottom , no?
Hmmm. I try not to predict. I am no good at it.

I merely look for for high probability low risk set ups and then flip down to a short time from for a price action entry. Looking at my chart above you will see the defined range as it occurs to me. I want to play reverse in the range or a breakout when it occurs. As for which direction the Franc will leave the channel prediction, I have none. However, standard techical analysis says that the price usually leaves a consolodation channel in the same direction it came in. Which is to say, Dollar up. WHy in the world the dollar would want to go up any more from a fundemental stand point is a whole other issue
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #150
  • Jan 18, 2007 4:01pm Jan 18, 2007 4:01pm
Quoting FXopportunist
Hmmm. I try not to predict. I am no good at it.

I merely look for for high probability low risk set ups and then flip down to a short time from for a price action entry. Looking at my chart above you will see the defined range as it occurs to me. I want to play reverse in the range or a breakout when it occurs. As for which direction the Franc will leave the channel prediction, I have none. However, standard techical analysis says that the price usually leaves a consolodation channel in the same direction it came in. Which is to say, Dollar up. WHy in the world the dollar would want to go up any more from a fundemental stand point is a whole other issue
only other thing i could think of is that the euro has broken away up dollar negative for a bit now so that could be a good clue of swissy doing same thing to the downside.
Also since swissy has tested a certain line a few times isnt that an indicator of it going that way? aka the 2 fib levels i was talking about earlier
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #151
  • Jan 18, 2007 4:11pm Jan 18, 2007 4:11pm
Quoting Ghostpipper
only other thing i could think of is that the euro has broken away up dollar negative for a bit now so that could be a good clue of swissy doing same thing to the downside.
Also since swissy has tested a certain line a few times isnt that an indicator of it going that way? aka the 2 fib levels i was talking about earlier

Show it on a chart with a few arrows. Let's look at it.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #152
  • Jan 18, 2007 4:15pm Jan 18, 2007 4:15pm
Hey mate this is great thread you started

The views are slowly getting up there.
  • #153
  • Jan 23, 2007 5:05pm Jan 23, 2007 5:05pm
Quoting turbokaos
Hey mate this is great thread you started

The views are slowly getting up there.
Thanx Turbo.
This is just not one of those bonzer threads. Seems like I get more PM's about this thread than posts. LOL Not sure why.......
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #154
  • Jan 23, 2007 5:08pm Jan 23, 2007 5:08pm
Here is the current euro 1 hour channel which defines its trading range.
A breakout north would likely indicate a general sentiment change and time to swing long.
There is also the possibility that this is merely a bear flag. Time will tell.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #155
  • Jan 23, 2007 5:21pm Jan 23, 2007 5:21pm
Unlike the eur/usd which maintains the appearance in my charts of failing to escape its consolodation channel, the USD/CHF has the obvious appreance of a breakkout short. This chart has sell written all over it. We shall see if it plays out.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #156
  • Jan 23, 2007 5:45pm Jan 23, 2007 5:45pm
Here is an interesting 1 hour chart of the GBP/USD. What makes this chart, and the pound in general so interesting and irresistable is it daily range and it's characteristic of overshooting a little. both of these things make the pound a more profitable pair to trade of you are good and are familiar with it's nuances.

There are many possible explainations of why the pound behaves this way but non of them are really important. As long as you know that it does. The chart below depicts very technical behavoir by the pound. It is in a moderately stong bull channel since about the 12th. Today it popped out of the top like it was late for a bull party, but just as soon as the party started, the GBP/USD retreated back into the channel. In fact the pair barely fell short of a 100% retrace of the entire 200 pip move.

Many people are looking at a pin bar on their daily charts and are ready to short this pair. They may or may not be correct. But I am personally very skeptical of that strategy because the GBP/USD has fallen comfortably back in its bull channel. Combine this with the US Dollar bear flavor of the EUR/USD and USD/CHF behavoir in the above charts, and I find myself still considering potential GBP/USD longs. Only a break of the bottom of this bull channel will change my speculatory bias.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #157
  • Jan 23, 2007 5:51pm Jan 23, 2007 5:51pm
I agree with this
  • #158
  • Jan 23, 2007 7:31pm Jan 23, 2007 7:31pm
Awesome thread.. lots of good things to learn here. I do have a few questions though.

First of all, in one of the earlier posts you write "I just try to look for correllations where there could be a reaction and try to profit from it." What sort of correlations are those and how to spot them? It would be awesome if you could post some charts explaining this.

Secondly, I'd like to learn more about the projections that you show on some charts a while back. Where would I get any info on that as I have not seen anything on the subject on the web?

My third question is in regard to the murrey math. What is your opinion of it? I do have some material on it, and would like to know what sort of thing I can expect from it from someone who's had experience trading it.

Anyway, I'll be following your thread carefully. Also, I'll try to post some of my own technical analysis charts and hopefully you can review and comment on that. Thanks
Matt
  • #159
  • Jan 24, 2007 7:33am Jan 24, 2007 7:33am
Here are updates of the 3 channels we have been monitoring. The eur/usd, chf/usd & gbp/usd.
Since all 3 of these pair are crossed with the dollar I typically look for rough corrollations between the 3 to determine the direction of the dollar. What these charts are telling me is that the dollar is not doing a whole lot. BUT the Pound, the Euro and the Yen. definately are. While each currency in a cross has a bearing on the cross pair, normally it is the dollar that is responisble for the overall movement and establish the trend. Lately that is just not the case. Carry trades are lending strength to the euro and interest rate speculation and hyper reactive traders are stirring up the Pound.
So the typical corrollations that I might look for for trade direction simply arent there.

So back to the charts. The GBP/USD has broken out of the channel short and the USD/CHF has broken out of its channel short. The EUR/USD has not broken out and is currently about mid range.

Who do You believe?
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #160
  • Jan 24, 2007 7:35am Jan 24, 2007 7:35am
Euro 1hr
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
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